GetKnowTrading: EURUSD Chart Analysis

[Frano Grgić]

We have now price bounced from the resistance line at 1.09860 where candles look like the bulls have much more strength.

Bounce has been realized with small bear candles which does not give to much confidence in the bear strength. That is why we should watch for the bullish price action signal.

 

[Frano Grgić]

Today we will see will the price make a pullback to 1.09860 level which now is acting as a support level. Price could make a pullback before trying to break above 1.10373 level.

 

[Frano Grgić]

Today is Friday and it is a day when I do not want to trade to much.
From this point price have a chance reaching next resistance level at 1.11091 if bulls can find strength.

There is also a chance we see price pulling back to the support level 1.10373 if the bulls move out from the market.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The price reached the target from previous analysis where I was talking about $1.07825.

Tuesday was the day when the price broke below $1.08846 which was a signal the price will move to the next support level, $1.07825

Since we have a strong demand zone around $1.07825 which made the price bounce up on Thursday we could see the price making a retrace from the current support level.

If the price manages to break below we should wait for the retest with daily price close below this level.

That will be the first step to move down to $1.06736 support level.


If we check currency strength meter we can see that USD gained on strength which suggest price should move more down .

 

[Frano Grgić]

Previous week analysis talked about price having a hard time to break below $1.07825 after moving down to the demand zone.

After reaching the lower level of the demand zone price reversed and moved upwards touching the supply zone around $1.08846.

On Friday price followed bearish Pin bar signal and closed the day below previous daily candles.

The next target is [URL deleted] 100 pips away, support level $1.06736.

$1.06736 is a slightly weaker support than $1.07825 was, so we can expect if the price continues to move strongly down to break this support more easily than it was this week.

 

[Frano Grgić]

Previous week analysis talked about price moving down for around 100 pips and 300 pips in the long term.

The price has reached both targets in four days.

Next week we can expect some retrace for EURUSD after strong selling pressure last week.

Most likely the price will reach $1.06736 resistance or $1.07388 which should be the next target.

 

[Frano Grgić]

Previous EURUSD forecast talked about price making a retrace to $1.06736 and the price retraced, but only to $1.06410.

Thing is that the price is now in the indecision area where we need to wait for a breakout.

Next week we need to wait for the price to break out from this range.

$1.05825 is the first target for the bulls that must be broken and retested to verify the breakout.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The price made a breakout on Wednesday after testing the $1.05825 resistance three times.

After strong move, if we [URL deleted] calculate pip range it is 177 pips move, price stopped and made a retrace above $1.04000 on Friday which we can add to Friday exit where traders cash out after a strong move and get out from trades before the weekend.

We can expect price moving higher close to $1.05000 resistance level and from there look for bearish price action signals.

Now is the time to wait for the retrace to higher levels and from there look for a sell signal.

 

[Frano Grgić]

Just in two days the price returned and reached $1.04700.

On Friday we have a small retrace where traders have exited from trades and taken the profit from the strong move upwards.

With strong bullish candles and breaking some critical levels to the upside we can look for the price on higher levels.

The candle closed above previous candles body highs which is a good signal to look expect the price on the higher levels.

 

[Frano Grgić]

price reached higher levels like $1.06400 which was a high on the last bullish attempt.

After breaking above resistance levels the price returned down to $1.06736 and verified the level as a support.

We can see currency strength meter showing EUR much stronger than USD currency which is confirming the bulls strength.


And the price will likely test resistance and price around $1.08300 which is close to the monthly trendline.

$1.07825 is the first step and it is a base for bullish attempts to attack higher levels.
[ATTACH deleted]

 

[Frano Grgić]

The price reached $1.07825 resistance and made a retrace back down to $1.06736 where it bounced back up, but returned down and broke below $1.06736 support level.

Next week we could see a price close to $1.06736 because the price closed the week below previous week close price and this week open price.

$1.06736 is now a base for buyers which they will defend and it will be a base for future moves to the higher price.

We now have $1.06736 as a support that will decide if the price moves down or up.
[ATTACH deleted]

 

[Frano Grgić]

The price moved higher and reached a $1.07825 supply zone which was too hard to break.

From there the price returned down and formed a strong bearish engulfing candle that closed the day below previous weekly false breakout downwards.

Next week we could see a price close to $1.05825 which will be a breakout confirmation.

The possible level for the price to reach is $1.05600, which is high on the previous reversal attempts after sell off so we can expect the same reaction and target.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The demand around $1.03920 was a strong area and the price could not break further down.

On Friday we had a small bearish candle that had a wick below $1.05087 support level, but the day closed at the demand zone around $1.05087.

The price has closed the Friday below previous day candles bodies which is the first step to move further down.

But, as the market now looks at the weekly and monthly time frame the $1.03920 is still the next week target.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The $1.05087 and $1.05825 range is holding the price.

In the middle of the week we have a price trying to break outside of the range area above resistance $1.05825 level, but the price returned inside quickly.

We have now indecision for the price which must be defined by the breakout on the upside or downside.

The current support $1.05087 is stronger than $1.05825 as a resistance so this could be a decision factor next week.

 

[Frano Grgić]

On Monday the price had a false breakout from the range area to the upside where the next day the price returned back inside the range area.

On the last two days the price reached the previous two weeks target $1.03920 and bounced from the support.

If the price manages to close the day below $1.03920 then we would have price moving to long term target $1.02975.

If we take these three time frames into calculation the EURUSD price will move down around 200 pips from the current price.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The price has moved strongly down on Monday and on Tuesday the price reached parity.

The Friday closed above previous days bodies close so it is a small indication price could move upwards.

The price is now in the downtrend channel and supply zone above could push the price down.

A small retrace to the first resistance could be all that we could see from bulls.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The price on Monday has made a first step to make a breakout reaching first resistance level $1.01368 and breaking above with a wick

This was a small signal the price will reach a higher level because the small breakout from the previous week’s small range.

The next week’s target is to break above $1.02975 resistance level.

Because the price is right in the middle between support and resistance levels it is good to wait until the price reaches a lower level close to $1.01368

 

[Frano Grgić]

The price started with an indecision candle where the bulls and bears could not take the price to higher or lower levels.

On Tuesday the price strongly moved down making a breakout from the small range that has formed in the previous week.

On the upside we have $1.03600 as a bulls target where the price needs to break above $1.02660 to reach higher levels.

We have now a downtrend resistance line that is on the $1.02975 which will make small pressure on the price and prevent reaching higher levels.

 

[Frano Grgić]

We had a false breakout to the upside where the second candle had returned the price back inside the price range.

When the price reached the resistance line the price broke to the upside and closed the day above price range.

The price could reach $1.02000 level to find better support for future move up.

We now have a price between upper level of a price range and resistance level at $1.02975 which needs to define where the price will move.
[ATTACH deleted]

 

[Frano Grgić]

At the end of the week strong selling pressure took the price below $1.01368 support and reached almost parity.

Small bounce back to $1.00700 is likely because this level is a small resistance level where price reacted when moving down.

Long term target is $0.99134 as a strong demand zone where the price will stop moving down.

For now we can expect $1.0000 as a first support and then $1.0070 as a first resistance level.