Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD ready for another attempt to jump to 1.3230

As release of British employment data, generally, was perceived positively, the Pound expectedly climbed to the 1.3200 level. Nevertheless, a subsequent release of the American retail sales and inflation data neutralized this achievement by returning the pair back to combined support area formed by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs near the 1.3135 mark. After making a rebound the cable resumed the surge. Second day in a row bulls are hoping to use macroeconomic data release to push the rate to the pre-fall 1.3230 level. Whether they succeed or not will mainly depend on the UK retail sales growth rate. There just a need to take into account that the pair is unlikely to climb above a combination of the monthly PP and upper edge of dominant channel from the north and the above MAs from the south.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY moves to south as expected

As it was expected, the currency exchange managed to break below both the psychological 113.00 level as well as the weekly S1 located at 112.86. A release of better than expected American retail sales and inflation data did not ruin this achievement. In contrast, it simply accelerated a rebound from the bottom trend-line of the currently active descending channel. Generally, the exchange rate is expected to resume the movement upwards. However, there is a little chance that it will manage to climb above new combined resistance set up by the monthly PP and the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs. To put it differently, the pair is expected to make another rebound and continue heading to the south. The main factor that might alter this assumption will be the upcoming US release of manufacturing data.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD trades below moving averages

Using support provided by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the monthly PP, the rate managed to climb to the weekly R1. In other words, the pair has practically managed to form the third reaction high of a long ascending channel. However, a release of widely expected American data created a momentum that enabled bears to return the rate back to the weekly PP at 1,277.10. Hence, all four abovementioned support levels turned into resistance. As they are all concentrated around the 1,279.00 mark, it is unlikely that bulls will manage to push the pair through them without new strong upside momentum. There is a need to notice that the similar situation has already happened in beginning of the week when the gold failed to climb upstairs after a solid strengthening of the buck.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD fluctuates between 38.2% and 50% Fibo’s

In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate failed to slip below combined support formed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the weekly R2 as well as to climb above combined resistance set up by the 50% retracement level and the monthly R1. It seems that the pair will continue moving undecidedly due to additional pressure exercised by the rising 55-hour SMA from one side and the weekly R3 from the opposite side. There is a good chance that the exchange rate will make a decisive breakout during one of today’s fundamental events, such as the US housing data release. In the meantime, there is a need to remember that traders’ outlook for the Euro remains predominantly bearish so as the aggregate market sentiment, which is 67% bearish.





GBP/USD at the crossroads of two channels

A release of better than expected information on the British retail sales supported active appreciation of the Pound and provided an impulse strong enough to break through the 1.3228 resistance level and reach an intersection of upper boundaries of a dominant descending and junior ascending channels. As there are no significant macroeconomic data releases planned for today that could facilitate the further surge, the cable is expected to make a rebound and start the new trading week moving back to the 1.3200 mark. The only question remains strength of which pattern will prevail. Majority of traders have bullish outlook on the Sterling. However, the aggregate market sentiment is 53% bearish. In this sense, there is a need to remember that currency pair is trading in a general uptrend.






USD/JPY forms falling wedge pattern


As it was expected, the currency exchange rate made a rebound from combined resistance formed by the monthly PP and the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs. However, fears over impact of the new US tax reform that was passed by the House last night led to sharp apperception of all safe have assets, including the Yen. On the one hand, lower support line of the currently active descending channel sustained the bearish pressure. On the other hand, inability of the rate to break to the top three days in a raw points out on transformation of this pattern into the falling wedge formation. In any case, a sudden breakout to the north is not expected due to development of another resistance barrier consisting from the falling 55-hour SMA and the weekly S1.





XAU/USD goes up amid inflation concerns


Until beginning of new trading session, a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs in conjunction with the monthly PP managed to constrain the pair from breaking to the top. However, once the news that the US House of Representatives passed its own version of the tax reform, the gold prices inched to the top. On the one hand, this advance confirmed existence of a minor ascending channel, which, in turn, implies further appreciation of the gold. On the other hand, further road to the north is obstructed by the 1,283.90 and 1,286.13 resistance levels. In short term, the pair is likely to make a rebound. But, generally, the rate is expected to continue heading towards the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel, which is supported by the 61% aggregate bullish market sentiment.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD prepares to test combined resistance

The common European currency continued to lose value against the Dollar in a junior descending channel, as expected. In first hours of this trading session it made a rebound from the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel, which was additionally supported by the rising 200-hour SMA. From larger pattern’s perspective the currency pair should succeed to break through combined resistance area formed by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, the weekly PP, the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level around the 1.1765 mark. However, the rate might actually end the day outside the senior channel due to additional pressure exercised by the 100-day SMA. In addition to that, the aggregate market sentiment remains 62% bearish and majority of traders continue keeping negative outlook on the Euro.




GBP/USD tries to break from two large channels


From technical perspective, the cable was expected to make a rebound from an intersection of two senior channels. However, the news about improved offer for the final financial settlement made by the British government led to spike of the price of Pound.

Depending on how markets will interpret today’s inflation report hearings, the pair might either return back into boundaries of the dominant channels or confirm its yesterday’s breakout to the top. In any case, there is a need to take into account that the current advance in junior ascending channel is additionally supported by the rising 55-hour SMA as well as the monthly PP at 1.3238. But in the meantime, majority of traders continue to have bearish outlook on the pair.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY expectedly surges to 112.62

In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate has successfully reached the 112.62 mark. But as this level was protected by the weekly PP, the pair was forced to retreat. Currently, it is fluctuating in a limbo between the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
Unless the buck receives a proper impulse it has little chances to break to the top. However, even if such momentum will be created the surge is not expected to exceed the 113.10 mark, which represents location of the 200-hour SMA. From the opposite direction an equal role plays support area located around the monthly S1 at 112.04. Generally, there is a need to keep in mind that the aggregate market sentiment is bearish and the pair is fluctuating in a medium-term downtrend.





XAU/USD drops by 1.27%

Growing fears about inevitability of snap parliamentary elections in Germany led to appreciation of the Dollar against basket of currencies, including the yellow metal.

In result of this downfall, the exchange rate reached and made a rebound from the bottom edge of a senior ascending channel. As market sentiment remains 56% bullish, traders are expected to make numerous attempts to push the pair through all three moving averages and return it to the pre-fall 1.293.00 level. However, without similarly strong impulse this recovery is likely to be delayed until tomorrow. In this sense, declaration of North Korea, as a sponsor of terrorism, barely helped the pair to break through the monthly PP at 1,279.41.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD tries to rebound from 200-hour SMA

In line with expectations, the pressure exercised by 100-day SMA shoved the rate out of the channel. Nevertheless, as the pattern was additionally backed up by the 200-hour SMA, the pair did not make a fully-fledged breakout. For this reason, bulls are expected to continue pushing the rate towards the upper trend-line of a junior descending channel that crosses combined resistance level formed by the 100-hour SMA, the weekly PP and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near the 1.1760 mark. As traders are largely bearish on this currency pair, a breakout to the top seems unlikely. Moreover, the northern side remains protected by the above 100-day SMA. In this sense, the only thing that could strongly decrease value of the buck would be release of worse than expected US Core Durable Goods Orders data.



GBP/USD rises along 55-hour SMA


As markets did not pay much attention to the UK Inflation Report Hearings, the cable continued to slowly surge along the rising 55-hour SMA within the junior ascending channel.

By now, the currency pair has practically bypassed the upper boundaries of both senior channels. A small positive signal, such as the Autumn Forecast Statement, would be enough to make a decisive breakthrough. Once this happens, the exchange rate will face no resistance level up until the weekly R1 located at the 1.3300 level. However, the release of data on the US Core Durable Goods Orders alter this scenario and drag the currency pair back to the monthly PP at 1.3238.





USD/JPY approaches monthly S2
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As there were no fundamental events that could positively affect value of the buck, the currency exchange rate continued moving to the bottom under the pressure from the 100-hour SMA. Right now the currency pair is facing no obstacles to reach the monthly S1 located at the 112.04. Under normal circumstances the rate would make another rebound. However, in this particular case the clash most probably will match with release of data on the US Core Durable Goods Orders, which might either speed up the rebound or bolster the breakthrough. The second option seems more viable from the point of view of new descending channel that consist of two reaction highs and two reaction lows. But even if the pair goes in the opposite direction, it is not expected to climb above the 112.62 resistance level.







XAU/USD struggles to break through MAs

As it was expected, lack of an upside momentum did not allow the pair to surge above the 1,282.00 level. Nevertheless, these attempts are expected to resume. First of all, two days ago the exchange rate made a rebound from the bottom trend-line of a large ascending channel, which implies the subsequent advance in the opposite direction. Second, yesterday’s movement defined the boundaries of a new junior ascending channel, which is expected to provide an additional support for successful breakout through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Third, there will be a release of data on the US Core Durable Goods Orders, which are projected to decrease this, thus leading to deprecation of the Dollar. Finally, 63% of traders keep bullish outlook on the price of yellow metal.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD returns to last week high

A release of the disappointing US data created an upside momentum that enabled the pair to break through combined resistance formed by the 100-hour SMA, the weekly PP and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The subsequent publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes as well as lowered anxiety about political situation in Germany only extended the surge and elevated the pair to October 26 high located at the 1.1837 mark. From trade patterns perspective, yesterday’s soar signified a rebound from the bottom boundary of a senior ascending channel. In essence, the pair is free to continue the surge, facing barriers only near the 1.1860 and 1.1880 levels. However, an area around the 1.1840 represents location of an alleged upper edge of the dominant descending channel, which is likely to a new rebound.





GBP/USD surges to October maximum at 1.3338

Although initially the Pound was hit by first lines of the budget announcement, the subsequent revelation of details changed the sentiment lifted the rate to the weekly R1 at 1.3300, as expected. A release of the Fed Meeting Minutes only deepened the surge and pushed the rate to October high at 1.3338, as markets concentrated on traditional concerns over inflation and uncertainty about interest rate hikes next year. During this trading session the pair is projected to move in southern direction not only because the upside momentum came to an end but also because it made a rebound from the upper edge of still active junior ascending channel. Even though today the UK will release its Second Estimate GDP no substantial volatility is expected due to upcoming holidays in the United States.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY falls to 111.10

In line with expectations, a release of data on the US Durable Goods Orders as well as the Fed Meeting Minutes only bolstered the breakthrough through the monthly S1 at 112.05. In result of the downfall, the Dollar lost 0.8% against the Yen and was stopped only by the bottom boundary of the currently active descending channel near the 111.10 mark. As the pair still remains within the pattern, the buck is expected to start a gradual recovery. But to due to beginning of the Thanksgiving holidays and reduced liquidity the surge might be postponed even until the next week. To put it differently, this trading session the currency pair is likely to spend fluctuating between the weekly S1 at 111.40 from the north and support near the 111.10 from the south.




XAU/USD reaches resistance at 1,294.50


The gold continued to rally against the buck after making a rebound from the bottom trend-line of a medium-term ascending channel. By the end of the day the pair has reached resistance near the 1,294.50 mark and made a rebound amid optimistic economic outlook expressed in the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Accordingly, in first half of this trading session the pair might temporarily retreat to the weekly PP located. However, the deeper plunge is unlikely due to support provided by the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. On the other hand, as bearish momentum comes to an end, the rate might actually stay within boundaries of junior ascending channel and try to bypass the above resistance one more time. In general, appreciation of the bullion is expected to last at least for another three days.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD struggles to bypass resistance at 1.1860
,
After making a rapid advance two days ago the currency exchange rate entered into consolidation phase, fluctuating between the 1.1837 support and the 1.1860 resistance levels. As the United States are having Thanksgiving holidays and there are scheduled no fundamental data releases in Europe, the pair is not expected to make any active movements today as well. In support of this assumption, the southern side remains protected by combined support formed by the monthly R1 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, while the northern side contains other barriers near the 1.1874 and 1.1860 marks. But, in general, the Euro is expected to continue gaining value against the Dollar in one-month long ascending channel and heading towards the 1.2000 level.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD breaks below 1.33

In line with expectations, the cable continued to gradually moving to the bottom after making a rebound from the upper edge of a currently active ascending channel that was additionally secured by resistance line at the 1.3338 mark.

In first hours of this trading session the pair managed to bypass the weekly R1 at 1.3300 and the 55-hour SMA at 1.3293, which suggests that the rate is likely to reach the opposite side of the channel by the end of the day. The only obstacle that might alter this scenario and push the pair back to the 1.3290 level is the rising 100-hour SMA. In the upcoming days the currency rate most probably is going to continue heading to the bottom, trying to return to an area near the 1.3230 mark.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY tests 55-hour SMA

Due to beginning of Thanksgiving holidays in the United States, which led to reduced liquidity, the currency rate indeed spent previous trading session between the weekly S1 at 111.40 and support at the 111.10 level. But as it made a rebound from the bottom trend-line of a two-week long descending channel, in first hours of this trading session the surge resumed. At the moment, the pair is the testing the 55-hour SMA, which might lead to short-term retreat. Nevertheless, this barrier should not prevent the pair from reaching the opposite side of the pattern. Thus the general question is whether the buck will manage to soar to the pre-fall 112.10 level or it will be forced to make another rebound amid additional pressure exercised by the falling 100-hour SMA as well as the monthly S1 at 112.05.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD forms symmetrical triangle

On the one hand, in first half of the previous trading session the exchange rate expectedly tried to slip to the weekly PP at 1,287.22. On the other hand, without sufficient liquidity related to beginning of holidays in the United States the pair could not surge above resistance near the 1,293.00 either. As a result, it formed a minor symmetrical triangle, which is expected to be broken by the end of this week. The breakout to the bottom seems unlikely, as the aggregate market sentiment remains 54% bullish and the pair is generally advancing in an ascending channel. But even if it happens the plunge is unlikely to go below the above weekly PP that is additionally backed up by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. However, in case of surge it is still doubtful that the pair will sneak above the 1,295.00 mark.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD climbs to 1.1940 and ready to move forwards

Even though the Euro climbed more sharply than expected amid the news that Merkel agreed to form coalition with the SD, the movement remained in line with general expectations. As long as the pair stays within the ascending channel that is backed up by the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, it is likely to continue advancing against the Dollar towards the 1.2000 mark that represents an intersection of the pattern’s upper boundary and the monthly R2. In shorter perspective bears might try to gain a momentum, although the plunge is unlikely to exceed the 1.1870 level, as this area is secured by the 61.8% retracement level, one of the above MAs and the weekly PP. However, the red scenario is unlikely due to formation of a minor pennant pattern, which presupposes further surge.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD surges to 1.3360 but then retreats

On hourly chart the British Pound is continuing to gain value against the Dollar in a two-week long ascending channel. Generally, the cable is projected to continue heading to the top in the above pattern using support continuously provided by the rising 55- and 100-hour SMAs. The ultimate goal is located near the 1.3430 level and presents location of the upper boundary of a long-term dominant descending channel. However, before that the surge of the currency rate is likely to be stopped in the 1.3370-1.3380 resistance area. In case of retreat, strengthening of the buck in unlikely to exceed the 1.3300 mark, as this support zone is backed up by the updated weekly PP and the above 100-hour SMA. Finally, the only macro release, which might cause notable volatility will the US Prelim GDP.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY prepares to test support at 111.20

In line with expectations, by the end of the previous trading session the currency rate has reached the upper boundary of a currently active descending channel. As this barrier was additionally backed up by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level as well as the falling 100-hour SMA, the pair was forced to rebound. During first half of the day the pair is likely to get back to the 11.60 mark amid the push made by the 55-hour SMA. But subsequently the pair is expected to test support area between the 111.20-111.10 levels. Unless the Yen receives a proper impulse this barrier might ruin the pattern. However, such scenario unlikely to lead to rapid recovery of the buck, as on daily chart road to north is blocked by a combination of the 100- and 200-day SMAs.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD heads towards 1,293.00 again

During the previous trading session the rate formed and made a breakout from junior symmetrical triangle pattern. Fortunately, a combined support formed by the 100-hour SMA and the updated weekly PP at 1,286.16 managed to turnaround the pair. In short run, the surge of the yellow metal once again is likely to be halted near the 1,293.00 and 1,295.00 resistance levels, which might lead to formation of a minor ascending triangle. But in larger perspective the pair is projected to reach the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel near the 1,300-1,302.00 marks. In support of this assumption, 55% of traders remain bullish on the given pair. Moreover, since that area is backed up by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level there is little chance that the pair will manage to breakout to the top.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD anticipates Powell’s appear before Congress

After reaching the 1.1960 level the currency exchange rate returned back to the 55-hour SMA located at 1.1900, as expected. The correction was based on hawkish comments made by the Fed’s Kaplan as well as anticipation of the Governor Powell appear before Congress and Trump’s meeting with Senate Republicans regarding the new tax reform. If traders concentrate on positive moments of those meetings, the pair is likely to plunge even further, towards combined support formed by the weekly PP and the 100-hour SMA near 1.1865. Even though bears might take the lead in second half of the day, the overall movement of the rate is still expected to be guided by bulls. Their first goal is expected to be the new resistance at 1.1960, while the ultimate is located at 1.2000.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD expectedly rebounds from 1.3380

During previous trading session the cable surged to resistance zone located at 1.3370-1.3380 and then pulled back to the 1.3220. The plunge once again was stopped by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, which are lying along the bottom boundary of an ascending channel. For now, such soars and retreats were proofed to be successful. Today, the rate is likely to try to plummet to the weekly PP amid the Governor Powell’s testimony before Congress and Trump’s meeting with Senate Republicans about adoption of the new tax reform. However, neither of these events is expected to stop the rate in medium perspective from reaching and making a rebound from the upper boundary of a long-term dominant descending channel near 1.3400.




USD/JPY approaches combination of MAs


After making a rebound from the upper edge of the currently active descending channel, the pair slipped through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and landed on the weekly S1 at 110.84. As early hours of the current trading session did not bring any significant news, the pair made a rebound and approached the upper trend-line for the second time. As the boundary is secured by the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs, it is unlikely that bulls will manage to break the pattern. On the other hand, a reaction on various events in the United States might lead to short-term spike to the 111.60 level. However, even in case this scenario materializes, the general downtrend should not be affected due to resistance formed by the 100- and 200-day SMAs that are explicitly seen on daily chart.






XAU/USD forms rising wedge


The gold continued to rally against the buck on Monday. In result of the seven-hour surge, the pair managed to reach combined resistance formed by the monthly and weekly R1 at 1,297.00-1,298.00 and confirmed an assumption about transformation of the channel into the rising wedge formation. The appearance of new pattern only additionally confirmed that bulls are trying to push the rate to the 1,302.00 level. As that area is protected by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the pair is expected to make a fully-fledged rebound. However, in shorter perspective there is need to take into account that Trump’s meeting with Senate Republicans regarding prospects of tax reform as well as Powell’s appearance before Congress are likely to lead to strengthening of the buck and retreat to 1,292.00.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD falls to 1.1836 amid progress on tax reform

In line with forecasts, an improvement in consumers’ sentiment dragged the pair to the weekly PP at 1.1864, while the subsequent news that two hesitating senators agreed to join other Republicans to support tax reform pushed the pair even further to the monthly R1 at 1.1826. As this barrier is located slightly above the bottom boundary of an ascending channel and is additionally supported by the 200-hour SMA, the pair is expected to make a fully-fledged rebound and start surging back to the 1.1910 and then 1.1960 levels. However, a resistance posed by the weekly PP as well as concentration of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs near the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1890 suggests that the rate is likely to make one more turnaround especially if it matches with release of info on the US Prelim GDP.