Daily Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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GBP/JPY is at a Crossroads

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The GBP/JPY is standing at a crossroads there and we might see either a continuation down or a spike. The POC zone(H4, 50.0, trend line, ATR pivot) to watch for is 140.35-47, and the spike above 140.47 might target 140.95 and 141.14. in the case of rejection from POC, levels to watch for are 139.95 and 139.50. At this point this looks like a consolidation before possible breakout in either direction.
 

Admiral Markets Group

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EUR/USD Five 0 Pattern Marks Two Way Trading

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The main focus of this week is on mostly on NFP and EUR Bid Rate decision. With the market expectation of 3 rate hikes this year by the Fed, all eyes will be on this week's NFP numbers. The key test for the Fed is to ensure that inflation is improving and full employment is maintained. However, if NFP is bulging above 200k, then it may give incentive to hike sooner rather than later. ECB is not expected to change the rate at this point.

Technically, the EUR/USD is in downtrend but due to Yellen's comments about possible March rate hike, investors turned to profit taking where we saw the EUR/USD spiking up on Friday profit taking. Traders need to watch possible spikes from POC buy zone 1.0555-64 ( L4, EMA 89, 5-0) and possible sell within 1.0660-80 zone (H3, ATR top, 88.6) where we can also see historical sellers. I am more inclined to sell on rallies due to higher time frame trends and EU problems with France, Italy and Netherlands but for intraday swings, two way trading is possible. Targets are camarilla pivots between these two POC zones.
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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NZD/USD Equidistant Channel in a Strong Downtrend

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The NZD/USD has been dropping consistently within the Equidistant channel versus its counterpart USD mainly due to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps its rate low. Additionally, the dairy prices fell in the overnight auction, adding to overall NZD weakness. The POC zone is 0.6935-50 (H4, DPP, equidistant channel top, ATR top) and we might expect new rejection if the price gets within the zone. 1h momentum or 4h close below 0.6890 marks the continuation towards 0.6858 and 0.6840. The ATR has been low but consistent so the NZD could be also suitable for traders who are afraid to trade volatile pairs.
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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EUR/USD Bullish Switch on Short Term Trend

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The US is on track for 3 hikes this year, and a few more in following years, but there were mentions during previous week that the ECB too may shift to normalising rates also in due time, so at this point we see a possible change in direction on this pair. The POC zone 1.0725-40 (L3, trend line, EMA 89, ATR pivot 23.6) and if 1.0670 stays strong we might see 1.0800 and 1.0840. The uptrend has been established by strong momentum candle (highlighted in green) and it seems we might see a continuation. Watch for any rejections from POC and break of 1.0780 if it happens short term.
 

Admiral Markets Group

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GBP/USD Bullish Cup With Handle Formation


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The GBP/USD has formed a cup with handle pattern on H1 timeframe, suggesting further upside. W H4 camarilla is acting as support as the price broke above it, and it forms a clear handle at the brim of a cup. 1.2480 might spike the price to the upside, targeting D H3 H4 and H5 levels respectively, -1.2516, 1.2538, and 1.2580. If the price breaks below the handle, look for possible POC (D L3, double bottom, ATR pivot) 1.2425-45 rejection.

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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)
D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)
D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)
D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)
D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)
W H4 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Weekly Interim Resistance)
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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USD/CAD ABCD Pattern Marks the Support

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The rate cut wasn’t on the table yesterday as economic data in Canada has improved. Slightly hawkish stance of BOC’s chief Poloc reflected on the USD/CAD, sending the dollar down straight to W L5 support. At this point, we see an ABCD pattern at D L3 support, so the break of 1.3250 could spur a correction towards 1.3300 where we see a bearish POC (ATR top, EMA89, bearish order block, W L4) within 1.3300-1.3320. Rejections from POC target 1.3220 and 1.3190.

Keep in mind that if 1.3250 is not broken to the upside, we might see a straight drop below 1.3218 for 1.3190 and 1.3145 final D L5 target.

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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)
D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)
D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)
D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)
D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)
W L5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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EUR/JPY Bearish Zig Zag Within Equidistant Channel

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Bank holidays are usually days when low volatility is expected. Yen pairs tend to move with equities, especially Nikkei, so we have seen some volatility in the Yen during the Asia session. The POC for EUR/JPY comes within 115.75-95 (EQ channel top, ATR high, W H3, EMA89) and should reject the price. Targets are 114.55 and 113.90. If we don’t see any retracement in the pair, a breakout below W L3 114.35 should also aim for 113.90, which is D L5 – the strongest intraday support.

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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)

D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)

D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)

D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)

W L5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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GBP/USD Bullish Pennant Targeting Higher Levels

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The GBP/USD spiked heavily after UK PM Theresa May called for snap UK elections on June 8. UK PM May stated that these elections might further instill the stability in UK and would provide stability for longer period. Traders favored UK PM’s reasoning and the GBP flew off above weekly resistance levels.

The pair has formed a bullish pennant that might provide a further breakout to the upside above 1.2855 targeting 1.2907 and 1.2946. In case of retracement, technically the POC comes within 1.2735-60 (ATR low, W H5, D H3) and rejection should target 1.2835 and 1.2855 with the possible breakout as mentioned above.

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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)

D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)

D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)

D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)

W H5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
 

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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USD/CAD Bullish Marubozu on Daily Timeframe

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The USD/CAD has formed a bullish marubozu (strong momentum candle) on daily timeframe (see the mini daily chart) which marks an uptrend. Retracement towards POC might start at the break of trendline (red). If the price gets to POC (38.2, ATR low, D L4, EMA89) the POC zone should spike the price further up towards D H3 at 1.3513 and D H4/ATR High at 1.3540. Only above 1.3545 we could see 1.3600.

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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)

D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)

D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)

D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)

W H5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
 

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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www.admiralmarkets.com
GBP/JPY Strong Bullish Zig Zag Pattern

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The GBP/JPY has been bought on dips after Macron won the first round of French elections. Our Session Recap setup went as expected and now we see a continuation. Equities went bullish and GBP/JPY followed, reaching 143.00 zone. At this point we see a huge MACD divergence which might drop the pair towards POC zone. POC 141.60-90 (D L3, ATR low, trend line, 50.0) could spike the price towards 142.50, 143.00 and 143.80. If we don’t see an entry within POC zone watch for 4h close above 143.30. That should also be a sign for continuation towards above mentioned targets.

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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
 

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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www.admiralmarkets.com
PRE-ECB Analysis: EUR/USD Breakouts Possible

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The European Central Bank is set to keep its ultra-easy policy stance firmly in place this Thursday afternoon (11:30 AM GMT) but may acknowledge better growth prospects, setting the stage for a small signal as early as June about an eventual reduction of stimulus. Volatility on EUR/USD could be expected.

Technically the EUR/USD 4h chart shows bullish momentum but anything can happen during the ECB conference. Yesterday we had a successful live EUR/USD entry on Wednesday’s Live webinar that made more than 40 pips as of now. The break of 1.0950 should retest 1.0965 and possibly 1.0990-1.1020. However, the break of 1.0820 could close the retail gap around 1.0777 level. Be careful with risk allocation and using of VPS tool is advised.

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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
W H5 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)
M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)
M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
 

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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EUR/USD Still Supported Above Retail Gap

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The EUR/USD is still supported above the retail gap which showed straight after [URL deleted] Macron won the first round vs Le Pen. Friday is getting close , so we might see profit taking due to Sunday’s final round of presidential elections. 1.0860-45 is POC zone for possible buy trades as the EUR/USD might spike from the zone (W L3, ATR pivot, historical buyers) targeting 1.0930 and 1.0965. A drop below 1.0820 could target 1.0775 and further momentum could also close the retail gap at 1.0730.

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W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H5 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Weekly Resistance)

M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)

M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)

M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)

POC- Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
 
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Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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www.admiralmarkets.com
EUR/USD 1.0930-1.0950 is Point Of Confluence

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The expected win of newly elected president Emmanuel Macron seem to be priced in the market after a successful rally as we shown in the previous [URL deleted] EUR/USD analysis. At this point the pair is heading towards the POC zone 1.0930-50 where we could see a possible bounce. As the ATR of EUR/USD is low - only 77 pips, levels to watch for are 1.0990 and 1.1020. However the loss of 1.0930 is a possible signal for a deeper retracement towards 1.0870. Retail gap could only be closed if the pair broke below 1.0820.

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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
 
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Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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www.admiralmarkets.com
GBP/USD Super Thursday Event: Running Flat Top Ascending Pattern

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The main focus today is BOE interest rate decision with monetary policy summary. This is called Super Thursday event and I expect it to be very volatile. The event is scheduled for 11 AM GMT. The BOE will also present its quarterly inflation report which has been updated. We might see two-way price movement.

The pattern that is formed is called - running flat top ascending triangle. It is a running pattern because the apex of the triangle has not been established yet. This suggest two way price movement, that could be also fueled with Balance of Trade date today. There are two zones traders should focus on at this point.1.2995 is a strong resistance and a break of 1.2995 (D H5, ATR high) may target 1.3025 to 1.3050 - Weekly H3 camarilla pivot and round number resistance. Break of lower zone (D L3, ATR pivot) 1.2916 might target even 1.2825 level - Weekly L5 camarilla. I suggest you use VPS tool in the case you want to trade GBP/USD today.
 

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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USD/JPY Daily Confluence At Support

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The USD/JPY is currently supported at POC zone 113.40-60 (Trend line, D L3, Order block, EMA89) and we might see a spike towards D L3 - 114.10. The pair is in uptrend on intraday (H1) and intra week (H4) charts. 1h or 4h candle close above 114.10 should provide additional strength in this pair, targeting 114.35 (ATR high) and 114.75 (D L5) if we see additional volatility. W H3 and ATR low should hold (113.15) if bulls want to remain in control. Bears would only have control below D L5 (112.90). If that happens during next days we might expect 112.15 as the target.

Adding to that we have [URL deleted] US Inflation data today so the combination of US data and profit taking could be volatile for this pair.
 
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Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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GBP/NZD Uptrend Intact

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The GBP/NZD has almost closed the retail gap with a slow grind towards D L3 that stands in a confluence with the gap. At this point the price is getting close to the POC zone 1.8685-1.8705 (D L3, Retail gap close, 78.6, bullish order blocks, ATR pivot). As long as 1.8608 support holds we might see a rejection towards 1.8870 ATR/D H4 confluence. Only above 1.8880 the price might go for a full retest of 1.8969.
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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AUD/NZD Uptrend Intact

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The AUD/NZD has formed a bearish Wolfe Wave after the retail gap that pushed the price up. The pair is still in downtrend on 4h time frame, so it could piggyback momentum from higher time frames to H1 chart. That means a potential bearish trade setup when Point 5 has been formed. Type 1 setup might happen when the price enters the POC zone (ATR high,Wolfe Wave point 5) 1.0805-0812. The rejection could target the EPA (Estimated Price at Arrival) target 1.0743. If the pair breaks above 1.0812 then traders should wait for the price to again close below 1-3 line for the Type 2 setup.


Type 1 setup - Price enters the POC zone

Type 2 setup - Price goes above the 1-3 line then break back below it
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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GBP/CHF Could Start Correction Soon

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The GBP/CHF has formed a regular bullish divergence at Daily L5 support and currently shows a potential for upside correction. The POC zone 1.2665-75 (Multiple bottom, ATR pivot, historical buyers) might spike the price towards L4 and L3 (1.2759 and 1.2828). Have in mind that L4 (1.2759) is a strong resistance and price needs to break above potential head and shoulders pattern to proceed further up. At this point the price is supported by POC zone and bullish divergence and until 1.2759 is hit we should see an upside price action.
 

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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EUR/USD Confluence At Daily L3 Camarilla Pivot

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The EUR/USD broke above 1.1200 level on Friday and it is normal that we are seeing the retracement at this point. Remember, always mark yesterday's high & low. Those were the definitive points where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Usually we see a retest of those points. Because the pair is in uptrend it could spike from the bullish POC 1.1155-70 (trend line, ATR pivot, D L3, 38.2) targeting 1.1211 followed by 1.1250-65. The ATR of EUR/USD is not that high, so pay attention to levels and POC zone. Ideally 1.1120 should hold for bullish scenario to be valid.
 

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
331
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www.admiralmarkets.com
GBP/USD Bearish Divergence Could Bring the Pair Lower

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The GBP/USD is still in uptrend on 4h but it is showing a bearish divergence that could tank the price lower. 1.2830 is support and if the support breaks, the pair could head towards 1.2785. In case of retracement, we might see 1.2900-1.2915 the POC zone (inner trend line, ATR pivot, W4, EMA89). The POC zone could also reject the price towards 1.2830 and 1.2785. At this point the interim resistance is 23.6 fib - 1.2886 so short term traders could possibly reject the price from that level in the form of short term momentum trades.

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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)