Daily Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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GBPUSD is close to important crossroads
Bad inflation data is weighting on the GBPUSD pair (0.3 % vs 0.4 % expected) and that could possibly mean no rate hike anytime soon and it caused a deeper retracement in the price. Technically we can see an uptrend on H4 time frame and the price is reaching deeper retracement zone and important crossroads.

POC (78.6, historical buyers, trend line) 1.4140-55 is important as the price could find now moment buyers that would spike the price up towards L4 1.4220. However only if the 4h candle closes above 1.4220 we could see 1.4350 again. POC is very close to the first leg of bearish M pattern too, so if 1.4115 is lost the price will go for another test of 1.4050 and 1.4000.

GPBUSD.jpg
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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EURUSD Watch for 1.1055 if it doesn't spike up from POC
The EURUSD is standing at very important POC 1.1145-60. This is 4h support and POC ( T-89 ™, Inner Trend Line, Historical Bullish Order Block). If EURUSD wants to go up it should spike from POC else we might see a drop towards 1.1055 -a historical BPC pattern. On the chart we can easily identify POC with T-89 and the support EURUSD is currently standing at.If the pair rejects next level is 1.1220 then1.1270 and 1.1340 but if the pair doesn't reject than 1.1055 is in sight with 1.1020 and 1.0980 as next levels.

So pay attention to bounce to the upside and if don't see the bounce than 1.1055 will be exposed.

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Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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EURJPY broke below sideways chop range

EURJPY broke below sideways chop last night when it was announced that OIL production cut back negotiations failed. There was a gap on JPY pairs and today early correction has closed most of gaps. JPY and OIL correlation links back to Risk-off sentiment, as Oil price drops, some sectors of Equities drop. So If Oil is dropping, inflation expectations would drop, which is not necessarily a good thing for Equities. In that environment risk-off prevails, and JPY gets stronger.

Technically EURJPY broke below sideways chop range (red rectangle) and if risk off sentiment prevails EURJPY could reject from POC (50.0, Doji, previous breakout point L3 ) within 122.55-70 else any breakout of 122.90 towards 123.05 zone might put the pair back into the sideways chop range. If we see a rejection 122.14 and 121.72 are targets for another bearish support retest.

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Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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nice.. i like trendline guys ^_^
Read more Admiral Markets' analysis in our [URL deleted] analytical section and there you can find fundamental analysis, wave analysis as well as Forex calendar and much more useful and interesting for your knowledge and trading experience.
 
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forex-TL

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Apr 15, 2016
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Oke guys.. thank you very much.. this really helped me to find information more quickly and accurately
Read more Admiral Markets' analysis in our analytical section and there you can find fundamental analysis, wave analysis as well as Forex calendar and much more useful and interesting for your knowledge and trading experience.
...
 
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Admiral Markets Group

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2016-04-21_9-42-57.jpg NZDJPY follows the equities as Risk On/Off indicator
NZDJPY is one of the pairs pair that has a strong correlation to equities. Nikkei and DAX are +92/90 correlated to NZDJPY and that is extremely high correlation, so they are moving in the same direction. Most important Yen crosses ( USDJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY) are an excellent Risk ON/OFF indicator. As the rate of one currency increases relative to another, investors are attracted to the higher yielding currency.

Technically NZDJPY is bullish but we see an inner trend line that has been broken with H4 perfectly aligned with previous swing. If we see H1 momentum above or H1 close above H4 camarilla pivot, the pair can make a bullish breakout to H5 and that is 77.54. If we see a pullback towards 75.64-80 zone (previous breakout point, bullish order block (A), 50.0,L5) the price could spike from POC towards 76.34 (L3), and further towards the H3 - 76.86. market is currently calm ( as expected ) so we might expect volatile session later during the day. We may expect a movement just before, duringDraghi speechtoday or after.
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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USDJPY Two Crows keep the pair in range
Today Federal Reserve Chair Jane Yellen and otherFOMCmembers could give us cues about potential rate hike in June. Market doesn't expect changes in Federal Funds Rate ( 0.50 % vs 0.50 %) decision today so we should focus on the statement itself as it is focused on the future. FOMC members always vote on where to set the target rate. All the individual votes are published in the FOMC statement afterwards.

USDJPY should be observed today as it is clearly in the range set by a Bearish Two Crows pattern. Pre FOMC range is 111.52-110.85. If we see 1h close above H3 camarilla PP or momentum breakout above 111.53 the pair could spike towards 111.85. Breakout below 110.83 should target 110.50 and 110.30. Be careful with ANY positions today as other USD and Yen crosses will be affected too.

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Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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AUDJPY tanking down after BOJ decision
Yen crosses fell heavily after BOJ decided no to go with more stimulus for now. The drops were direct and that means - VERY strong, without any retracement. Nikkei was slaughtered too. BOJ appeared quite hawkish last night even more than FED(!). The market was surprised by The Bank of Japan holding off on expanding monetary stimulus, investors were expecting more Abenomics which Kuroda failed to deliver.

Technically 82.80-83.00 is POC1 (38.2, historical sellers, inner trend line) and the price should reject after a potential first touch of the zone. However the drop was huge and more substantial retracement is favored. POC2 (EMA89, L4, inner trend line 2) 84.05-20 is another potential bearish rejection zone and if the price retraces in the zone we might also start looking for short opportunities.

So focus is on POC1 and POC2 as the price should reject off these zones. Targets are 82.09 and 81.66.

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Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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EURUSD is looking determined to break 1.1500
Last week, the dovish FED sent USD in a downward spiral. The weakness in USD is obvious vs EUR, JPY and GBP. I have already warned about the strong[URL deleted]GBPUSD, and today we are also witnessing the strength in the[URL deleted]Fiber- EURUSD.

The most popular currency pair is gaining ground. Strong MACD suggests a possible breakout of 1.1492 ascending channel that will lead to 1.1507 , 1,1520 and potentially 1.1557 if we see a H1 momentum or candle close above 1.1507. If we see a retracement then 1.1448 and 1.1415 are levels to pay attention to. 1.1448 is the mini channel bottom within the equidistant channel, while 1.1415 shows a confluence with L3, DPP and previous bullish order block (blue rectangle).

At this point the EURUSD is at the top of the channel so pay attention to either breakout or a retracement towards POC1-2.

Your capital is at risk.

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Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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AUDUSD Momentum candle suggests more bears to come

Surprising RBA decision to cut rates on Tuesday made the market tumble. It is clear that RBA is not happy with the current AUD rate so it wants its currency to be weaker. Investors should probably look to exit from any longs and based on RBA decision the bias should turn to the downside again. Remember AUDUSD is correlated to ASX200 index so pay attention to it too.

Technically the AUDUSD shows a Momentum Candle that I have been explaining onwebinarsand on Live Forex Expo seminar in London. Sheer momentum trading could give you huge profits. At this point price is trying to break 0.7465 and if we see H1 momentum break or 4h close below the level 0.7390 should be the target. Positional trades should come in play on a retracement towards POC. 0.7550-70 is POC zone (inner trend line, 38.2, L3, EMA89) and the price could retest the zone for next positional short trade. In that case targets are 0.7465 and IF it breaks 0.7388.

Your capital is at risk.
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Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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AUDUSD may drop further due to inflation forecast

The AUDUSD dropped heavily after unexpected rate cut. The problem is that Australia is already addicted to debt and even more debt could turn Australia into Japan which is full of debt. Additionally, the statement suggested the inflation between 1-2 % in 2016 followed with 1.5-2.5 % through mid 2018. Moreover, as the inflation problem was not enough, the RBA also expressed its worries about the strong AUD (!) that definitely hurts the exports.

Another rate cut in August is possible and sell the rallies is the option.

The POC comes at 0.7392-0.7402 (DPP, Equidistant channel top, H3) and slightly above within 0.7420-35 we have another strong POC2 (H4,EMA89) and we could see another rejection on pullbacks towards POCs. Another important level to watch for is 0.7285 (X cross breakout) as momentum break or H4 close below will target 0.7220.

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Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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Equities is ranging,and most indices are on strong support, if they drop again then JPY pairs could drop a lot (more JPY strength). SP500 below 2040 is very bearish and DAX below 9800 is very bearish too. Additionally - RBA is signalling more rate cuts. Once this happens money will go back into JPY and we will see a stronger JPY again. Also it is very important to keep an eye for FOMC meeting today.

Technically POC is 79.70-80 (L3,38.2,EMA89,trend line cross) and the pair could reject towards 79.25. But if the retracement is going to be deeper, then next POC is 80.15-30 (78.6, H3, historical sellers). targets are 79.25 and only on a strong H1 momentum break or close below the level we could see 78.70.
2016-05-18_11-10-09.jpg
 

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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GBPUSD strong upside intact
Fears of Brexit have diminished at least for the time being as latest polls suggest that pro EU option leads by 10 % (55 % vs 45 %). Additionally very gooddatafor Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change has spurred additional bullish momentum where the GBPUSD reached 1.4660 resistance.

Technically we can see rising MACD, and confluence within first POC that is 1.4600 zone (pennant breakout , 23.6, round number ) and traders should watch for a possible bounce at the zone.

POC2 is 1.4520-35 zone where we see a confluence - DPP, L3, 50. Below is a strong support 1.4500 with 61.8 and EMA89. If we see another rejection targets should be 1.4660 and only on 1h momentum break or 4h candle close above H4 cam pivot - 1.4725 we could see 1.4830.

1.4500 should stay firm else the pair is back in a range with a downtrend potential.
GBP.jpg
 

Admiral Markets Group

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Mar 23, 2016
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GBP/USD is proceeding higher with a strong momentum
Our previous GBPUSD predictions came true, though after a bigger pullback and the pair has made a strong bounce to the upside. Again, fears of Brexit diminished and the pound has been bought on dips.

Today's Second Estimate GDP came as expected and it is important because it measures a change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Technically GBPUSD has made a form of ascending scallop pattern. POC (DPP, L3, 61.8, double top breakout) comes within 1.4660-70 zone and pullbacks toward the zone could be used for long trades. The targets are 1.4740 and 1.4770. If the pair breaks 1.4770 with a strong momentum or we see a 4h close above it, next target is 1.4825.

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Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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EURUSD watch for counter trend confluence
The EURUSD is patiently waiting for major economic data coming in this week. We have some real high impact info this week and we could see risk-off sentiment possibly coming back. We need to watch out for upcoming releases:

  1. Wednesday - CNY manufacturing data, very important data for CNY + ADP
  2. Thursday - ECB press conference and OPEC
  3. Friday – NFP

Any bad US data during week including bad CNY data could cause a risk off. If OPEC fails to cut Oil and oil price drops subsequently, it won't be good for USD. End of month positions may reverse too on profit taking.

In addition to fundamentals, technical chart is also showing signs of a possible counter trend movement as we could see that weekly support is there - X cross on weekly chart formed by historical buyers and lower equidistant channel support line. On H4 time frame we can see the similar picture. L3 support is sitting at the bottom of equidistant support + we can see a regular bullish divergence. While above 1.1085-70 EURUSD might turn bullish targeting 1.1200 and 1.1240.

So it is very important that we pay attention to price flow as the EURUSD is close to a counter trend confluence POC.

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Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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www.admiralmarkets.com
GBP/USD is at critical support
In the wake of major economic releases today, we can see that the GBP/USD pair is very close to critical support. Maybe it is time for a retracement. Current price action suggest a possible retracement towards 1.4540-50 zone (POC). 1.4385 is a very important support and we see a higher low compared to a previous low on 4h time frame. MACD has made a lower low and that counts as hidden bullish divergence. Additionally from L to H 1.4385 is 88.6 fib swing so that makes another confluence point. If the price retraces to POC ( L3, EMA89, 50.0) we could see initial selling again towards 1.4400-1.4385.

It is very important for traders to see the whole picture as only if the price breaks and closes below 1.4385 we could see 1.4320 and 1.4280. For now we could see a spike up as a part of correction.

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Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
331
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www.admiralmarkets.com
AUD/NZD stepping up the trend line

AUD/NZD is in uptrend and traders are looking for new long opportunities on a pullback. New Zealand CPI is below expectations, there is also a possibility of a rate cut. Generally speaking, New Zealand is a smaller economy, it might eventually lose to trade agreements and currently Australia has more bargaining power and more diverse economy. Fresh AUD strength started after elections but we also saw commodities up in the past week.

Technically AUDNZD is showing confluence within H3, 61.8, and ascending trend line. 1.0640-60 is POC zone and we could see now moment buyers. If the pair makes 4h close above H4 it should target 1.0740. H4 chart shows possible extension to 1.0770. 1.0600 should hold for uptrend scenario to be valid.

AUDNZD.jpg
 

Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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Yuppy is going down

The EUR/JPY is making bearish swings on daily chart and our mini chart suggests a continuation of bearish trend. Sell on rallies could be possible close to POC 113.35-50 (H3,DPP, trend line). Additionally POC zone is 78.6 fib of the last bearish swing on H1 chart. The target is 112.75 and if the price makes a momentum break below 112.75, it will target 112.25. Only below 112.25, 111.40 is possible but it will hardly happen today as we are in a holiday trading mode.

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Admiral Markets Group

Master Trader
Mar 23, 2016
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www.admiralmarkets.com
GBP/USD Strong marubozu candle on daily chart

TA2.jpg

The GBP/USD is waiting for [URL deleted] BOE decision today regarding further reports and monetary policy. The pair is showing a strong marubozu candle on daily chart which indicates that most traders are exiting their short prior to BOE Official bank rate announcement. Whether they will cut the rate, it is yet to be seen but market is predicting a 0.25 % cut.

Technically we can see Head and Shoulders on intra day time frame but also strong buying off the support that is presented as two strong wicks (purple rectangle). If the pair breaks below 1.3270 we might see 1.3230 and 1.3170. Above 1.3350, 1.3415 is possible. Watch for volatility that will rise for sure just before the announcement and during the presser.
 
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