Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 01, 2016)

USD

The US dollar returned some of its recent gains as traders booked profits at the end of the month. Economic data from the US came in line with estimates, except for the Chicago PMI which showed a sharper decline and a slower pace of expansion. The core PCE price index was up 0.1% as expected, personal spending rose 0.5%, and personal income increased by 0.3%. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 51.5 to 51.8 is expected.

EUR

The euro held on to its recent wins when euro zone data came in mostly in line with estimates. The headline CPI flash reading stood at 0.5% while the core figure held steady at 0.8% as expected. The region's flash GDP estimate came in at 0.3% but Italy's preliminary CPI reading came in short. French and Italian banks are closed for the holiday today so lower liquidity is expected during the European session.

GBP

The pound was able to advance after BOE Governor Carney confirmed that he would be staying in office for three more years, easing fears that he might step down in the middle of Brexit negotiations. UK net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals came in line with expectations. The manufacturing PMI is due today and a fall from 55.4 to 54.6 is eyed.

CHF

The franc was barely able to establish any clear direction in recent trading since there were no economic reports out of the Swiss economy. Swiss retail sales and manufacturing PMI data are due today, with the former expected to show a 2.3% year-over-year drop and the latter projected to rise from 53.2 to 53.9.

JPY

The yen was stuck in consolidation as traders are holding out for the BOJ decision. No actual changes are expected for the time being, although officials are expected to provide more details on the shift in their monetary policy framework. Dovish remarks could keep a lid on yen gains while upbeat comments could allow the Japanese currency to recover.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie gave up ground when crude oil prices fell on reports of record high OPEC output and a buildup in inventories. Earlier today, Chinese PMI readings came in mostly better than expected. Canada is set to print its monthly GDP reading and might show a bleak 0.2% expansion while New Zealand has its quarterly jobs report due.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 02, 2016)

USD

The US dollar gave up a lot of its recent gains as election-related uncertainties weighed on US markets. Polls continued to show a narrowing lead for Clinton over Trump as the FBI investigation into her private email server is hurting her credibility. Data came in mostly in line with expectations, as the ISM manufacturing PMI advanced from 51.5 to 51.9 while the jobs component returned to showing expansion. Today has the FOMC statement lined up and hawkish remarks could keep the US currency afloat.

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness and was able to advance against most of its rivals, except against the franc. French and Italian banks were closed for the holiday and there were no euro zone reports released. Today has the final manufacturing PMI readings due, along with the German unemployment change. Analysts are expecting to see a flat reading for October.

GBP

The pound also weakened against its forex peers as the UK manufacturing PMI slumped from 55.5 to 54.3, lower than the 54.6 consensus. Today has the construction PMI due and a slide from 52.3 to 51.9 is expected, although traders might hold out ahead of the BOE decision tomorrow.

CHF

The franc was one of the top performers for the day as traders seemed to transfer their safe-haven holdings out of the dollar and onto the franc. SNB head Jordan attempted to jawbone the currency to no avail, with franc bulls unwilling to stop unless actual intervention is seen. Swiss retail sales came in line with expectations of a 2.3% year-over-year drop while the manufacturing PMI beat expectations by rising from 53.2 to 54.7 versus the 53.9 forecast.

JPY

Yen pairs were mostly stuck in consolidation as traders couldn't get a clear direction after the BOJ refrained from boosting stimulus again. Central bank officials had a dovish outlook, citing that risks to growth and inflation were tilted to the downside. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was one of the strongest performers, thanks to upbeat jobs data and the 11.4% jump in dairy prices during the GDT auction. Quarterly employment change rose 1.4% while the jobless rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9%, indicating that a potential RBNZ rate cut might be their last one for a long while. In Australia, the currency got a boost from a slightly hawkish RBA statement and PMI improvements in China. US crude oil inventories are due next and a draw in stockpiles could support the Loonie.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 03, 2016)

USD

The US dollar continued to slide against its peers as stock indices closed lower on election jitters. The FOMC kept interest rates on hold as expected, making some slight revisions in their rhetoric but still keeping December rate hike expectations in play. The ADP non-farm employment change missed the mark and showed a 147K reading versus the projected 166K increase. ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due today and a fall from 57.1 to 56.2 is expected.

EUR

The euro advanced against its counterparts as data from the region was mostly stronger than expected. Spanish and French manufacturing PMI beat expectations while the indices from Italy and the rest of the euro zone came up short. Germany reported a 13K drop in joblessness instead of printing a flat reading. Spanish and Italian jobs data are lined up for today.

GBP

The pound also regained ground as traders likely booked short positions ahead of today's BOE statement. The construction PMI beat expectations with a rise from 52.3 to 52.6 instead of the projected drop to 51.9. No actual policy changes are expected from the BOE today but any change in rhetoric could spur strong moves for pound pairs.

CHF

The franc returned some of its recent gains to the euro and pound, as traders were concerned about potential SNB intervention at these levels. Today has the Swiss SECO consumer climate index due and a rise from -15 to -13 is eyed.

JPY

The yen rallied against most of its forex peers as risk aversion still lingered in the financial markets. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today so there are no major reports due.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance as the Aussie advanced while the Loonie lagged. US crude oil inventories rose by 14.4 million barrels versus the estimated buildup of 1.6 million barrels. Australia's trade balance showed a smaller than expected deficit buoyed by a 2% gain in exports. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 04, 2016)

USD

The US dollar chalked up another round of declines against its peers as economic data came in mostly weaker than expected, except for factory orders which posted a slightly stronger 0.3% gain versus the estimated 0.2% uptick. Initial jobless claims showed a larger rise while unit labor costs indicated downside pressure on wages. The NFP report is due today and a 174K gain is eyed, which might be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.0% to 4.9%.

EUR

The euro was slightly weaker against its peers, although it was able to squeeze out a few more gains against the commodity currencies. Euro zone data was mixed, with the Spanish unemployment change figure coming in better than expected and the Italian jobs report falling short of consensus. Final services PMI readings are due from the region's top economies today.

GBP

The pound staged a strong rally after the British High Court ruled that the UK government would need the parliament's approval before officially invoking Article 50. This could mean more delays before the negotiation process begins, postponing the official Brexit date as well. The UK government is still set to appeal this decision to the supreme court by December 7. The BOE kept rates on hold as expected, issuing a slightly less dovish statement than usual. There are no reports due from the UK today but Brexit-related headlines could push pound pairs around.

CHF

The franc gave up some of its recent wins to the European currencies after the British High Court decision, as risk appetite improved in the region. Swiss SECO consumer climate improved from -15 to -13 as expected, reflecting a smaller degree of pessimism. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen weakened slightly against its peers during the Japanese bank holiday as risk appetite improved somewhat. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could be the main driver of yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of dollar and yen weakness but were no match to euro and pound strength. Australia printed a strong trade balance buoyed by a 2% gain in exports and a stronger than expected 0.6% gain in retail sales. Canada's jobs report is due today and a 10K drop in hiring is expected. The Ivey PMI is also due and a slide from 58.4 to 56.2 is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 07, 2016)

USD

The US dollar took a hit on Friday when the NFP report printed a lower than expected 161K gain versus the estimated 174K increase. The jobless rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9% as expected while average hourly earnings posted a 0.4% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. However, the Greenback was off to a strong start in the week after FBI director Comey said that they found no evidence of wrongdoing in their investigation of Clinton's private email server. Only medium-tier reports are due today and election-related updates could have a bigger impact on USD movement.

EUR

The euro had a mixed performance on Friday then gapped down against most of its peers this week, as risk appetite picked up. Services PMI readings from the euro zone fell short of estimates last week while today has retail sales and Sentix investor confidence data on tap. Stronger than expected data could keep the shared currency afloat but market sentiment could play a greater role in price action.

GBP

The pound continued to profit off the British High Court's ruling that the UK government would need to get parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50. There were no reports out of the UK economy on Friday and only the Halifax HPI is due today so Brexit-related headlines might still be the main driver's of pound movement.

CHF

The franc advanced to the dollar but was weaker against the rest of its counterparts as risk appetite seemed to return. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday while today has foreign currency reserves and CPI data due. A large jump in reserves could be evidence of SNB intervention while weak CPI could keep traders on their toes for potential central bank action.

JPY

The yen was off to a weak start on Monday as the FBI's conclusion on its investigation on Clinton's private email server renewed hopes that the Democratic nominee could win the elections. The BOJ released its monetary policy meeting minutes over the weekend and also its average cash earnings report, which indicated a 0.2% uptick as expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were mostly stuck in consolidation at the end of the week, awaiting clues on how market sentiment might fare. Canada's employment data came in above consensus, as the economy added 43.9K positions in October versus the estimated 10K drop. The Ivey PMI also beat expectations with a rise from 58.4 to 59.7, reflecting stronger industry growth. However, the trade balance showed a weaker than expected 4.1 billion CAD deficit versus the projected 1.7 billion CAD shortfall and the previous 2 billion CAD deficit. ANZ jobs advertisements in Australia showed a 1% gain to show a possible turnaround in hiring.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 08, 2016)

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against its peers as US stock markets closed higher again on the eve of the elections. Markets seem hopeful that Clinton will emerge victorious, as this scenario would mean less uncertainty for the economy, although the poll leads suggest that it's still too close to call. There are no major reports due from the US economy today so all the focus would be on the outcome of the elections.

EUR

The euro was mostly weaker against its peers even though data from the euro zone came in stronger than expected. The Sentix investor confidence index was up from 8.5 to 13.1, higher than the projected climb to 8.7, while retail sales fell by only 0.2% versus the estimated 0.3% drop. German industrial production and trade balance data are lined up today but traders could be more sensitive to market sentiment leading up to the US elections.

GBP

The pound gave up a bit of ground as traders probably booked profits after the reaction to the British High Court ruling last week. UK Halifax HPI posted a 1.4% rise in prices versus the estimated 0.3% uptick, keeping upside price pressures in play. UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers are due today and disappointing results could remind traders of the Brexit-related uncertainties that are prevailing.

CHF

The franc advanced against most of its currency counterparts, prompting a bit of jawboning from SNB officials. In a TV interview, a policymaker said that they are watching CHF flows closely in relation to US election market movements and that they would not hesitate to intervene if necessary. SNB foreign currency reserves ticked slightly higher from 628B CHF to 630B CHF while CPI was weaker than expected at 0.1% versus 0.2%.

JPY

The Japanese yen wasn't able to keep up with dollar strength but it advanced slightly against its other peers, possibly on profit-taking ahead of the US elections. Only the Japanese leading indicators is due today and a small dip is eyed, although risk sentiment might remain the bigger driver of yen price action for the rest of the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to take advantage of the pickup in risk-taking, spurred by strong gains in US stock markets. There were no major reports out of the comdoll economies yesterday. Today's Chinese trade balance release featured weaker than expected results, as the surplus widened from 278B CNY to 325B CNY, short of the estimated 366B CNY figure. Exports were down 7.3% while imports lagged 1.4%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 09, 2016)

USD

The US dollar failed to establish a clear direction while the elections were going on, only to tumble sharply when Trump started gaining the lead in electoral votes. US futures are deep in the red at this point, as a Trump win could lead markets to gap lower in the US session.

EUR

The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but is still lower against the rest of its peers, as economic data from the region was mostly weaker than expected. German industrial production sank 1.8% versus the projected 0.6% drop while both Germany and France printed subpar trade balance readings. Only the EU economic forecasts are due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound resumed its slide against its peers upon seeing downbeat industrial production data. The report printed a 0.4% slump versus the estimated 0.1% uptick while manufacturing production was up 0.6%. The UK Supreme Court accepted the government's appeal against requiring parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50, which revives the possibility of having the Brexit negotiations start in the first quarter of next year. The Supreme Court will convene from December 5-8 and announce their decision early next year.

CHF

The franc is taking advantage of the risk-off flows so far, as polls are showing that Trump is holding on to his lead against Hillary Clinton. The Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.3% as expected and there are no reports due from Switzerland today, keeping risk sentiment in play. Bear in mind, though, that SNB officials have warned that they could intervene in the market if necessary.

JPY

The yen is also benefitting from the flight to safety spurred by the early results in the US elections. Medium-tier data from Japan was mixed but traders appear to be shrugging it off and paying closer attention to the bloodbath in the financial markets. Still, a come-from-behind victory by Clinton could force the yen to return its recent gains.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls are able to benefit from dollar weakness but are taking huge hits against lower-yielding currencies due to the rise in risk aversion. Chinese CPI and PPI numbers are up for release but the attention seems to be mostly on the US elections. The RBNZ is set to announce its policy decision and potential 0.25% rate cut in the late US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 10, 2016)

USD

The US dollar was off to a poor start when Trump's victory became apparent but pulled off a strong comeback during the US session as equities recovered. Investors seem to be pricing in the potential impact of corporate tax reforms and Trump's other economic plans on companies. There are no major reports due from the US economy today so the focus could stay on the government's economic agenda.

EUR

The euro tossed and turned in the aftermath of the US elections but eventually ended lower against its peers. There were no reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has French industrial production and non-farm payrolls.

GBP

The pound also had a volatile run during the announcement of the US election results but ended slightly higher. UK goods trade balance indicated a larger than expected shortfall. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc was able to profit from the initial risk-off selloff but soon gave back its gains and more. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday but the SNB's constant intervention threat was enough for traders to book profits from their long franc positions quickly. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen ended up one of the biggest losers for the day as it wound up giving up its intraday gains back to its rivals when risk appetite returned. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could still be the main driver of price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were pushed and pulled by changing risk sentiment, giving back some of its previous gains in today's Asian session. The RBNZ cut rates as expected while Wheeler emphasized that a lower exchange rate for the Kiwi is needed. US crude oil inventories showed a larger than expected buildup of 2.4 million barrels. There are no other reports lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 11, 2016)

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against its peers as traders tried to stay optimistic about the Trump presidency. Equity indices closed higher once more ahead of today's Veterans' Day holiday. There are no reports lined up from the US economy today and liquidity is expected to be thin.

EUR

The euro had another volatile run as risk sentiment switched back and forth. Euro zone data came in mixed, with French industrial production down 1.1% versus the projected 0.3% uptick. French non-farm payrolls and Italian industrial production beat expectations. Only medium-tier inflation reports are due from Germany today while French banks are closed for the holiday.

GBP

The pound was the big winner for the day as the pickup in risk appetite and general feeling of optimism in the markets boosted the UK currency off its lows. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the construction output report due.

CHF

The franc lost a lot of ground to its peers as risk appetite returned. Traders had been on the lookout for SNB intervention anyway, which explains why the Swiss currency quickly gave back its wins. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The Japanese yen was also in the losers' bench because of the risk-on market environment. Data from Japan was slightly better than expected as the tertiary industry activity index printed a 0.1% dip versus the projected 0.2% drop. Moving forward, market sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were no match to dollar strength but were able to take advantage of the risk-on flows against its other counterparts. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today but BOC Governor Poloz has a speech lined up.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 14, 2016)

USD

The US dollar closed the week on a strong note as traders continued to focus on the silver lining to Trump's election win. Equities managed to squeeze out more gains at the end of the week and traders are now turning their attention to FOMC rate hike prospects. US preliminary consumer sentiment also beat expectations by rising to 91.2. There are no reports due from the US economy today.

EUR

The euro lost a lot of ground to its peers on Friday as traders are focusing on the political event risks in the region. Data was mostly in line with expectations last Friday while today has the euro zone industrial production and a speech by ECB head Draghi lined up. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.9% drop in production, following the previous 1.6% gain.

GBP

The pound continued its ascent until the end of the week, even though there were no major reports from the UK economy then. It seems as though the improved sentiment in the US has been carrying over to the UK, with some predicting that Brexit would turn out well for the economy down the line. Earlier today, Rightmove HPI printed a 1.1% drop in house prices.

CHF

The franc kept falling against most of its counterparts as risk appetite improved and the threat of SNB intervention prevented traders from pushing their previous long positions. Swiss PPI is up for release today and a 0.2% uptick is eyed, weaker compared to the earlier 0.3% gain.

JPY

The yen continued to give up ground against its peers as risk-taking carried on until the end of the week. Over the weekend, Japan reported a stronger than expected GDP reading of 0.5% versus the estimated 0.2% expansion. Its industrial production report is due next and a flat reading is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up their recent gains on downbeat Chinese data, weaker oil prices, and the earthquake in New Zealand. Chinese retail sales slumped from 10.7% to 10% on a year-over-year basis. Industrial production was unchanged at 6.1% versus the projected rise to 6.2% while fixed asset investment ticked slightly higher. New Zealand's quarterly retail sales report is due next and slower gains for both headline and core figures are eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 15, 2016)

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against its peers but its gains were limited, suggesting that it may have already peaked. There were no reports of out of the US economy yesterday while today has retail sales figures on deck. Headline consumer spending is expected to have increased by 0.6% while core retail sales likely rose by 0.5%. US import prices and the Empire State manufacturing index are also lined up.

EUR

The euro was the weakest performer of the day as the upcoming Italian referendum led several traders to speculate that a change in leadership could expose the country to a vote to leave the region. Euro zone industrial production fell 0.8% versus the projected 0.9% slump. German and Italian preliminary GDP readings are up for release today, along with the French preliminary CPI and the region's flash GDP reading.

GBP

The pound paused from its strong climb, as traders probably trimmed their positions ahead of this week's UK event risks. UK CPI is due today and a rise in the headline figure from 1.0% to 1.1% is expected while the core figure could tick down from 1.5% to 1.4%. BOE Inflation Report hearings are also scheduled today and traders are waiting to hear what policymakers have planned.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it functioned more as a counter currency. Data from Switzerland was weaker than expected as the PPI printed a meager 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.2% gain. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so the franc might be sensitive to market sentiment or country-specific action.

JPY

The yen lost further ground against its peers when risk appetite extended its stay in the markets. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to stay afloat against the dollar but were able to rack up gains against the yen and the euro. Chinese data was mostly weaker than expected, particularly when it comes to retail sales and industrial production. New Zealand has its quarterly retail sales report lined up next and weaker consumer spending data is eyed. The GDT auction is also set to take place and another rise in dairy prices could lift the Kiwi.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 16, 2016)

USD

The dollar extended its gains across the board on stronger than expected US retail sales. The headline figure showed a 0.8% gain for October while the core reading also indicated a 0.8% increase, higher than the projected 0.6% and 0.5% gains respectively. The Empire State manufacturing index also beat expectations, and so did import prices data. US industrial production data and PPI readings are lined up today.

EUR

The euro was still weak against its peers on concerns about Italy's referendum. Data from the region was mostly better than expected, except for the German preliminary GDP. The region's flash GDP reading came in line with expectations of a 0.3% expansion. German ZEW economic sentiment beat expectations with a rise from 6.2 to 13.8, outpacing the consensus at 7.9. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound was in a weak spot after its CPI readings came in mostly weaker than expected. Headline CPI slipped from 1.0% to 0.9% instead of rising to 1.1% as expected while core CPI fell from 1.5% to 1.2%, lower than the estimated drop to 1.4%. However, the pound got a bit of a boost when a report revealed that legislation could delay Brexit by as much as two years. UK jobs data is due today and a 1.9K rise in claimants is eyed while the average earnings index could hold steady at 2.3%.

CHF

The franc gave up ground to the dollar but was stronger against the European currencies. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today, keeping risk sentiment in play.

JPY

The yen gave up ground to the dollar and commodity currencies as risk-taking continued. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so yen pairs could be pushed around by sentiment once more.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were slightly stronger on improved data, with the Loonie leading the pack on higher crude oil prices. Traders are expecting an OPEC output deal to come through since the Secretary General has scheduled meetings with energy ministers from Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Russia in the weeks leading up to the official meeting. In New Zealand, the GDT auction yielded a 4.5% gain in dairy prices. Quarterly PPI and retail sales are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 17, 2016)

USD

The dollar had a bit of trouble extending its gains across the board as data from the US disappointed. Headline PPI was flat instead of posting the projected 0.3% gain while core PPI showed a 0.2% dip instead of the projected 0.2% uptick. Industrial production was also flat in October while the previous reading was downgraded to show a 0.2% drop. CPI data is due today, along with the highly-anticipated speech from Fed head Yellen.

EUR

The euro was still among the weaker performers for the day as bulls are trimming long positions ahead of Italy's referendum. There have been no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has the final CPI readings and the ECB meeting minutes.

GBP

The pound was able to stay afloat against most of its counterparts even though data from the UK was mixed. Claimant count rose by 9.8K versus the projected 1.9K rise while the previous reading was revised to show a larger rise in joblessness. Still, the unemployment rate fell from 4.9% to 4.8%. UK retail sales data is due today and a 0.5% rebound is eyed.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it lost ground to the dollar, advanced against the euro, and consolidated to the pound. Swiss ZEW economic expectations rose from 5.2 to 8.9 to reflect improved sentiment. There are no reports due from Switzerland today but SNB member Maechler has a speech lined up.

JPY

The yen regained some ground against its peers, likely due to profit-taking. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie chalked up another day in gains due to a pickup in crude oil prices. US EIA inventories rose by 5.3 million barrels versus the projected increase of 0.4 million barrels but comments from Russian energy minister Novak kept the commodity afloat. Australia reported a weaker than expected 9.8K gain in hiring versus the projected 20.3K rise while the previous reading was downgraded to show a 29K drop in hiring. New Zealand postponed its release of quarterly PPI and retail sales to the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 18, 2016)

USD

The US dollar kicked its rallies back in high gear after Yellen's speech. The Fed Chairperson confirmed that a December rate hike is in the cards, citing that the economy has improved and is nearing full employment. She even cautioned that tightening might be necessary ahead of the new administration's projected increase in fiscal stimulus for fear of causing the economy to overheat. Data from the US economy was also mostly stronger than expected, but core CPI and Philly Fed index came up short. Bullard, George, and Dudley have testimonies lined up today.

EUR

The euro continued its slide to the dollar but was slightly stronger against the yen and the commodity currencies. Euro zone headline final CPI was upgraded from 0.4% to 0.5% while the core reading was unchanged. German PPI and euro zone current account balance figures are due today.

GBP

The pound was able to put up a fight against its peers when UK retail sales printed an impressive 1.9% jump versus the projected 0.5% increase. The previous reading was also upgraded from a flat figure to a 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker but it managed to score gains against the euro. There were no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday and SNB official Maechler didn't have anything new to say, although she has another testimony scheduled.

JPY

The yen lost a lot of ground to the dollar and a few pips to the rest of its peers as risk appetite stayed in play. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies gave up ground to the dollar but managed to advance against the yen. Employment data from Australia was mixed, as employment change showed a 9.8K gain versus the projected 20.3K increase. Canadian CPI readings are due today and small improvements over the previous readings are eyed. New Zealand postponed its release of quarterly PPI and retail sales once more.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 21, 2016)

USD

The US dollar ended the week strong, as traders continued to bank on stronger expectations of a Fed rate hike this December. There were no reports out of the US economy on Friday but Yellen's hawkish tone from the previous day still lifted the dollar. There are no reports due from the US economy today.

EUR

The euro weakened to the dollar and pound but managed to stay afloat against the comdolls and yen. French elections and the upcoming Italian referendum are influencing the shared currency's action these days, although ECB head Draghi's testimony could lead to additional volatility in the latter sessions.

GBP

The pound had a mixed performance as it struggled to hold on to its gains in the absence of top-tier data. There are still no reports due from the UK today so Brexit-related updates could continue to influence the currency's movements.

CHF

The franc gave up more ground to the dollar then consolidated to its European counterparts. SNB official Maechler once again spoke about negative interest rates and the need to keep the franc weak. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen was one of the weakest performers of the bunch as traders continued to pile on their long dollar positions. There were no reports from Japan then and none are due today, indicating that the moves were mostly a result of risk-taking.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up ground to the dollar but managed to stay afloat against the yen and the pound. Canada's headline and core CPI printed 0.2% gains, slightly weaker than expected. New Zealand credit card spending and Canadian wholesale sales data are lined up for today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 22, 2016)

USD

The US dollar gave back some of its recent gains as traders may be starting to book profits ahead of the Thanksgiving holidays. There were no reports out of the US economy yesterday and only the Richmond manufacturing index and existing home sales are lined up for today.

EUR

The euro was still in a weak spot against its peers even after ECB Governor Draghi tried to restore confidence in the region. Euro zone consumer confidence data is due today and no change in the -8 index is eyed.

GBP

The pound made a strong bounce during the latter part of the UK trading session when Prime Minister May reiterated that they plan on getting the Brexit negotiations started by March 2017. She also sought to boost business confidence in assuring that new trade deals will be better for the UK economy and set the tone for an ambitious Autumn Forecast Statement due later on this week.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker across the board when risk appetite picked up. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the trade balance on tap. A smaller surplus is eyed compared to the previous 4.37B CHF so speculations of SNB intervention could return if export activity is significantly weak.

JPY

The yen continued to give up ground against its peers on risk appetite and inflows to the US dollar. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so risk sentiment could be the main driver for yen pairs, although profit-taking is also possible ahead of tomorrow's holiday.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was the leader of the pack as stronger crude oil rallies ensued when sources from the OPEC technical talks confirmed that "some progress" is being made. Even though there are some concerns about Iran, several nations have expressed willingness to be flexible with Iran's production levels. Canadian retail sales data are due today and strong gains are eyed, likely giving another boost for the currency.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 23, 2016)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance as it struggled to extend its gains against its counterparts. Medium-tier reports turned out better than expected but US traders seem to be booking profits ahead of the Thanksgiving holidays. US durable goods orders data is due today, along with the FOMC meeting minutes.

EUR

The euro consolidated to the dollar and advanced to the yen, but it was no match to comdoll strength. The region's consumer confidence index improved from -8 to -6 but investors seem to be more focused on political event risks lined up, particularly the Italian referendum and French elections. Flash PMI readings from Germany and France are lined up today and strong improvements could keep the shared currency afloat.

GBP

The pound tried to advance against the dollar and yen but also paled in comparison to commodity currencies. UK public sector net borrowing was better than expected at 4.3 billion GBP. The government's Autumn Forecast Statement is lined up today and optimistic forecasts and ambitious plans, as hinted at by PM May earlier in the week, could push the pound higher.

CHF

The franc was one of the weaker performers of the bunch as risk appetite pushed the lower-yielding currency down. Apart from that, Swiss trade balance came in below expectations, reviving fears of SNB intervention in order to keep export activity supported. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen was still losing ground across the board, as traders pursued higher-yielding currencies. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today so thin liquidity and potentially higher volatility could be seen during the Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls strengthened across the board on improved risk sentiment, although the Loonie was slightly weaker on doubts about an OPEC output deal. Sources say that the technical talks went "successfully" but Iran and Iraq still have doubts when it comes to participating in production cuts. Canada's retail sales also missed expectations. US crude oil inventories are due today and a large buildup could put more weight on crude oil.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 24, 2016)

USD

The US dollar resumed its rallies across the board, buoyed by hawkish FOMC minutes and mostly strong data. Both headline and core durable goods orders figures beat expectations while the flash manufacturing PMI also posted an increase. Initial jobless claims and new home sales fell short of consensus. US banks are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday today.

EUR

The euro resumed its slide to the dollar but continued to take advantage of yen weakness. Flash PMI readings from Germany and France were mostly better than expected, except for the German flash manufacturing PMI. The German Ifo business climate index is due today and a rise from 110.5 to 110.6 is eyed.

GBP

The pound was still one of the stronger performers for the day as it chalked up gains after the Chancellor's Autumn Forecast Statement. Hammond laid out plans for stronger spending and lower taxes in order to keep the economy afloat in transitioning out of the EU. There are no major reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc extended its slide to the dollar and the pound but ended higher against the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday, although SNB official Maechler emphasized that the franc remains overvalued.

JPY

The yen was the biggest loser, owing to the quake in Japan and risk-taking. Japanese banks reopened today but the yen still failed to draw support, as the flash manufacturing PMI slid from 51.4 to 51.1 instead of improving to 51.7.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls resumed their slide to the dollar but managed to go for more gains against the yen. Crude oil inventories posted a surprise draw of 1.3 million barrels instead of rising by 0.3 million barrels while Iraq expressed willingness to cooperate in an OPEC output deal. New Zealand's trade balance is due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 25, 2016)

USD

Dollar pairs barely budged in the recent trading sessions as US traders were off on a Thanksgiving holiday. Banks and markets reopen today but liquidity is still expected to be thin over the long weekend so the Greenback might simply react to market sentiment or stay in consolidation.

EUR

The euro also moved mostly sideways even though data came in slightly weaker than expected. The German Ifo business climate index was unchanged at 110.4 instead of improving to the estimated 110.6 reading. Italian retail sales data is due today and a flat reading is eyed.

GBP

The pound tried to advance against some of its peers and was able to rake in a few gains. There were no major reports out of the UK then while today has the second GDP estimate and the preliminary business investment figure. No changes are expected for the Q3 GDP at 0.5% while business investment likely fell 0.2% for the quarter.

CHF

The franc took a break from its recent selloff to cruise sideways while most traders were out on vacation. There were no major reports out from the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today.

JPY

The yen continued to bleed against its forex counterparts as risk appetite remained in play even though most traders were enjoying the long weekend. Data from Japan came in line with expectations, as both Tokyo and national core CPI showed 0.4% declines. The BOJ core CPI is due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls advanced against the yen but consolidated against most of its peers. New Zealand printed a stronger than expected trade deficit of 864 million NZD versus the estimated 950 million NZD while the previous reading was upgraded. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today, but oil-related headlines could push CAD pairs around.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 28, 2016)

USD

The dollar gave back some of its recent gains on Friday as US traders were out on a holiday. The US currency was off to a bit of a weak start so far and there are no major reports lined up for the day so risk sentiment could push dollar pairs around.

EUR

The euro took advantage of the Thanksgiving holidays to make a correction against the dollar. The shared currency also pulled back against the yen and was mostly weaker against its other counterparts as well, even though there were no reports out of the euro zone economy on Friday.

GBP

The pound ended slightly higher against most of its peers on Friday, thanks to a stronger than expected preliminary business investment figure. The report showed a 0.9% gain for the quarter instead of the estimated 0.2% decline while the GDP reading was unchanged at 0.5%. UK CBI realized sales also printed a stronger than expected read. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc regained ground to the dollar and pound but was stuck in consolidation against the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so the franc could continue moving as a counter currency.

JPY

The yen was off to a strong start this week, although there were no major reports out yet. Profit-taking off the recent rallies may be to blame for the slide in yen pairs, although PM Abe still has a speech in parliament ongoing. Japanese retail sales and household spending data are due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to pull up against the dollar but are still no match to yen strength. Over the weekend, China signaled scope for further stimulus while OPEC-related updates cast doubts on whether or not a deal can materialize this week. Talks seemed to break down between Saudi Arabia and Iran, signaling that an output deal might not be signed in the November 30 meeting.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way