Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 11, 2013)

USD

The US dollar was sold off heavily in yesterday’s US session, as the minutes of the FOMC meeting showed that there was a lot of dissent surrounding the proposed stimulus taper schedule. Not all policymakers agree that the central bank should start reducing the level of its bond purchases by the end of the year, as improvements in the labor market are not that significant enough. USD/JPY fell back below the 100.00 level while EUR/USD climbed above the 1.3000 handle. The initial jobless claims release is the only event from the US today.

EUR

The euro was able to stage a successful rebound against the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as the FOMC minutes turned out to be a bit of a surprise. As for data, medium-tier reports printed weaker than expected results, with the French industrial production report showing a 0.4% decline. Manufacturing production also posted a decline while their current account deficit widened. More medium-tier reports are due from the euro zone today but this might not be enough to derail EUR/USD from its recent rallies.

GBP

The pound recovered against the US dollar in yesterday’s trading, as the FOMC minutes disappointed the dollar bulls. There were no reports released from the UK and none are due for today. The only event on the UK schedule is the speech by MPC member Miles, and this should shed some light on whether he supports Carney’s pledge of keeping monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future.

CHF

The franc rallied against the Greenback in yesterday’s trading, pushing USD/CHF down by more than 300 pips. There were no reports printed from Switzerland then and none are due today, leaving USD/CHF vulnerable to dollar behavior.

JPY

The yen managed to pocket huge gains against the US dollar yesterday, eventually pushing USD/JPY down the 100.00 level and back to the 98.50 area of interest. Earlier today, the BOJ had its monetary policy announcement and Governor Kuroda made no changes to its current level of easing.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies outpaced the Greenback yesterday, with USD/CAD breaking below the 1.0500 barrier and AUD/USD climbing back above .9200. New Zealand’s manufacturing index showed a drop in industry activity but this wasn’t enough to derail the Kiwi’s rally against the dollar. Australia’s jobs report came in mixed, with a better than expected employment change reading of 10.3K but a worse than expected jobless rate of 5.7%. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies in the upcoming trading sessions.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 12, 2013)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance in yesterday’s trading as it lost ground to the euro and pound, but managed to score gains against the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar. There were no major reports released from the US yesterday, only the initial jobless claims which showed a higher than expected increase in first-time claimants. However, analysts noted that this might just be an effect of the Fourth of July holiday. For today, the PPI and UoM consumer sentiment figures are due, and upbeat figures could renew demand for the US dollar.

EUR

There were no red flags on the euro zone’s calendar in yesterday’s trading, allowing the euro to regain ground against the US dollar. There are no major reports again today, except perhaps for the euro zone industrial production release. This is expected to show a 0.2% downtick after increasing by 0.4% last month.

GBP

The pound was one of the better performing currencies in yesterday’s trading as it managed to make a strong recovery against the US dollar. There were no reports released from the UK, but the country is set to print its CB leading index today. A 0.2% increase was seen last time and another increase could help lift the pound higher against its counterparts.

CHF

The Swiss franc continued to gain against the Greenback in yesterday’s trading, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. The Swiss economic schedule is empty again for today, which suggests that the franc might be able to benefit from dollar weakness if it persists until the end of the week.

JPY

The yen was mostly stuck in consolidation for yesterday as there were no major reports released from Japan. The BOJ statement turned out to be a non-event as Kuroda didn’t announce anything special for their monetary policy. Only the revised industrial production report and BOJ monthly report are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi suffered huge losses against the dollar in yesterday’s trading as weaknesses in China continued to dampen sentiment for commodity-dependent nations. Australia’s jobs report printed better than expected results of 10.3K instead of the mere 0.3K increase expected. However, its home loans report missed the mark and showed a 1.8% rise instead of the estimated 2.3% growth. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 16, 2013)

USD

The US dollar lost its legs in yesterday’s trading as it was weighed down by weaker than expected US retail sales. The headline figure posted a mere 0.4% uptick while the core version of the report showed a flat reading. This was lower than the estimated 0.7% increase in headline retail sales and the projected 0.5% growth in core retail sales. Apparently, US consumers cut back on purchases of gadgets and food while upping spending on automobiles and home furnishings. For today, the CPI figures are due and consumer price levels are expected to rise by 0.3% while core price levels could show another 0.2% increase.

EUR

EUR/USD was mostly stuck in consolidation for yesterday’s trading as there were no major reports released from the euro zone. German and euro zone ZEW figures are due today and small improvements are expected. German ZEW economic sentiment could climb from 38.5 to 39.8 while the region’s figure is slated to rise from 30.6 to 31.8, reflecting a rise in optimism.

GBP

The pound was off to a weak start in the Asian session but soon found support at the 1.5050 minor psychological level before rebounding back to the 1.5100 area. There were no economic reports released from the UK, as the country is set to print its CPI figures today. Annual inflation is set to climb from 2.7% to 3.0%, way above the central bank’s 2% inflation target. This should mean that the BOE would have less scope for monetary policy easing, which might be positive for the pound in the near term.

CHF

The Swiss PPI report fell below expectations as it showed a mere 0.1% uptick in producer price levels. However, the franc still managed to hold on to its recent gains against the dollar, as USD/CHF stayed around the .9500 handle. There are no major reports from Switzerland today, which suggests that USD/CHF action could be mostly dependent on US data.

JPY

Even though Japanese traders were on a holiday yesterday, the yen managed to score gains against the US dollar mostly during the New York session. There are no reports due from Japan again today, which suggests that the movement of yen pairs could be dependent on currency-specific data.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar was bogged down by weaker than expected Chinese GDP in yesterday’s Asian session, as the country grew by only 7.5% for the second quarter. Meanwhile, quarterly inflation in New Zealand also disappointed, as the figure showed a mere 0.2% uptick instead of the estimated 0.3% rise. Canadian manufacturing sales are on tap for today and a 0.7% rebound is eyed to follow the 2.4% drop recorded previously.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 17, 2013)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance yesterday, as it lost ground to some counterparts but managed to advance against others. US CPI was mostly in line with expectations, as the core figure printed the estimated 0.2% uptick while the headline CPI showed a higher than expected 0.5% increase. Industrial production was better than expected at 0.3% while capacity utilization came in line with consensus at 77.8%. US building permits and housing starts are due today but the bigger market mover could be Fed head Bernanke’s speech, as the Chairman is expected to set the record straight regarding the stimulus taper plan.

EUR

EUR/USD broke to the upside in yesterday’s trading, as the pair landed back above the 1.3100 handle. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as the German ZEW disappointed while the euro zone ZEW was better than expected. The German ZEW figure dipped from 38.5 to 36.3 while the euro zone ZEW reading climbed from 30.6 to 32.8. Only the German bond auction is scheduled for the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound had a choppy trading day, as the UK CPI release did very little to provide direction for pound pairs. The actual figure fell a little short of consensus at 2.9%, higher than the previous 2.7% reading. For today, the claimant count change is up for release and it is slated to show a 7.5K decline in unemployment claimants for June. Also due today is the MPC votes for asset purchases and interest rates, and it would be interesting to see how Carney voted in this meeting.

CHF

No reports released from Switzerland yesterday yet the franc still managed to post some gains against the US dollar. For today, the Swiss ZEW economic expectations report is due and it is expected to show an improvement from the previous 2.2 reading.

JPY

The yen gained against the dollar but lost ground to the pound in yesterday’s trading. EUR/JPY managed to stay stuck in consolidation though. Only the monetary policy meeting minutes were released from Japan and it revealed that BOJ policymakers are starting to see some notable improvements in the Japanese economy. There are no reports due from Japan for the next 24 hours, which suggests that the movement of yen pairs could depend on currency-specific events.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar got a strong boost from the RBA minutes, which showed that the central bank is happy that the Aussie depreciation is contributing positively to economic activity. Only medium-tier business sentiment data is due from Australia in the coming trading hours while Canada is set for the BOC interest rate decision. This is Poloz’s first rate statement so it should be indicative of how monetary policy will fare in the future.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 18, 2013)

USD

The US dollar experienced a lot of volatility during the US session, as Ben Bernanke’s speech had a confusing impact on dollar pairs. At first, the transcript of his speech was interpreted by some market watchers to say that the Fed’s stimulus taper plan by the end of the year is still uncertain. However, when the press conference took place and Bernanke was able to clarify some remarks, the markets realized that the central bank is still on track to reduce bond purchases by Q4, as long as inflation and employment continue to improve. As for data, building permits and housing starts both disappointed. For today, initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed index are due.

EUR

The euro consolidated against the dollar for most of the day then encountered additional volatility during the New York session. In the euro zone, the Bank of Italy reduced its growth forecasts for the year, adding to selling pressure on the euro. Only the current account balance release and the Spanish bond auction are scheduled for the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound managed to score huge gains in yesterday’s trading sessions as the MPC vote turned out better than expected. Apparently, MPC members voted unanimously to keep interest rates and asset purchases unchanged, different from the expected 2-0-7 vote or the previous 3-0-6 vote. It appears that the improvements in the UK economy have convinced some dovish members to decide that the current level of monetary policy is appropriate. Claimant count change figures also came in better than expected and showed a larger decrease in claimants for June. UK retail sales are up for release today and a 0.2% uptick is expected.

CHF

The franc was unable to hold on to most of its gains against the dollar, as USD/CHF landed back above the .9400 handle. Swiss ZEW economic expectations improved from 2.2 to 4.8 but Bernanke’s speech had a bigger impact on the pair’s movement. For today, Swiss trade balance is up for release and it isn’t likely to have a strong effect on the franc’s direction.

JPY

The yen lost ground to its counterparts when the BOJ minutes revealed that policymakers are in disagreement when it comes to retaining long-term bond purchases as part of their stimulus efforts. For some, this is necessary in controlling volatility in Japanese markets but others cautioned that it could lead to a spike in borrowing costs later on. No other reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as Bernanke confirmed that the Fed is still on track to reduce bond purchases. The Australian dollar got a heavier blow earlier today when the NAB quarterly business confidence figure sank from 2 to -1. As for Canada, the BOC kept monetary policy unchanged although Poloz did alter some of the lines in the previous statements. In addition, he adopted forward guidance by giving the markets some clues as to when they could start normalizing interest rates. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 19, 2013)

USD

The dollar regained ground when the US printed better than expected Philly Fed manufacturing data, with the index climbing from 12.5 to 19.8 instead of dipping to the consensus of 8.5. This goes to show that the Fed is still on track to taper in September and the economy could draw support from the manufacturing sector. Initial jobless claims were also better than expected at 334K, lower than the estimated 344K reading. No reports are due from the US today but be wary of profit-taking prior to the weekend’s G20 meetings.

EUR

Euro zone’s current account balance was weaker than expected, with the surplus shrinking from 23.8B to 19.6B. The ECB decided to ease collateral rules for acceptable asset-backed securities in hopes of spurring lending further. Medium-tier reports such as German PPI and Spanish housing price index are on tap from the euro zone today, both of which are unlikely to spur one-directional moves from euro pairs.

GBP

UK retail sales came in line with consensus as the report showed a 0.2% uptick. This was weaker than the previous 2.1% increase, but the positive figure was still able to lift the pound. Only the public sector borrowing report is due from the UK today, and given the state of their finances, it would be helpful to see a decline in the public deficit. Otherwise, the pound might give up some of its gains.

CHF
Swiss trade balance was better than expected at a surplus of 2.73B CHF, higher than the estimated 2.41B CHF. The previous month’s figure was revised to 2.12B CHF though. No reports are due from Switzerland today so we might see sideways movement for franc pairs.

JPY

The yen lost more ground to its counterparts in yesterday’s trading as Abe’s political party showed a strong lead in early polls. This means that Japan could be in for more aggressive structural reforms, which would include policies to keep the yen weak. All industries activity data is on tap for today and weak figures could lead to further yen weakness.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies struggled to hold on to their recent gains against the dollar, with the Canadian dollar showing some success. Canadian wholesale sales were much better than expected at 2.3%, higher than the estimated 0.4%, while the previous month figure enjoyed an upward revision. Meanwhile, Australian CB leading index was flat and the NAB quarterly business confidence report dipped from 2 to -1. Credit card spending in New Zealand rose by 5.4%, which helped lift the Kiwi. Canadian CPI data are up for release in today’s US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 22, 2013)

USD

The US dollar lost ground to most of its major counterparts on Friday, as EUR/USD broke out from its consolidation and reached the 1.3150 area. There were no reports released from the US then, as the selloff was possibly a result of profit-taking ahead of the weekend’s G20 Summit. There were no surprises from the actual meetings, although the leaders did pledge to push for a banking union in Europe. For today, only the existing home sales is up for release from the US and it is set to show a reading of 5.27 million, up from the previous 5.18 million figure.

EUR

The euro edged higher against its counterparts on Friday as German PPI came in better than expected. Producer prices in euro zone’s largest economy stayed flat instead of falling by the estimate of 0.2%. This was also better than the previous reading of -0.3%. However, Spain posted a huge decline in house prices for the past quarter as the HPI showed a reading of -2.4%. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound made some gains against the Greenback on Friday, pushing GBP/USD closer to the 1.5300 handle. Public sector borrowing in the UK was higher than estimated, as the actual reading showed a 10.2 billion GBP deficit. On top of that, the previous month’s report was revised to show a larger public deficit of 12.4 billion GBP. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc managed to extend its wins against the US dollar on Friday, as there were no reports released from both the US and Switzerland then. USD/CHF edged below the .9400 handle and appears to be headed lower for the week. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen edged lower against its counterparts on Friday but managed to recover in today’s Asian session as Japanese Upper House elections showed that Prime Minister Abe’s party is set to take majority of the seats. All industries activity index printed a 1.1% increase, lower than the estimated 1.3% increase. The previous figure was also revised lower. There are no reports set for release from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies moved mostly sideways on Friday but managed to end a little higher against its lower-yielding counterparts. Canadian core CPI showed a 0.2% decline while the headline CPI came in below expectations and printed a flat reading. No reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 23, 2013)

USD

The US dollar was off to a weak start for the week, as the existing home sales report turned out to be a disappointment. The actual report posted a 5.08 million figure instead of the estimated 5.27 million reading. This was also lower than the previous 5.18 million figure. For today, only the Richmond manufacturing index is due from the US and while this doesn’t normally induce a strong reaction from the dollar, it could leave a lasting impact today. After all, it is the only US release on deck. The reading is slated to dip from 8 to 7 but a strong reading could be positive for the dollar.

EUR

The euro managed to score more gains against the US dollar in yesterday’s trading but it gave way to yen strength. In Portugal, the coalition government was still unable to reach an agreement yet Silva announced that early elections are no longer necessary. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today, as the only release is the consumer confidence report. The figure is expected to post a small improvement from -19 to -18, which could still be positive for the euro.

GBP

The pound was able to end the day higher against the US dollar and euro while struggling to hold on to its recent gains against the yen. There were no reports released from the UK yesterday but the upbeat sentiment from the previous week’s release of monetary policy votes. BBA mortgage approvals are up for release today and a 38.5K figure is expected, which is higher than the previous 36.1K reading. A strong figure could allow the pound to extend its rallies.

CHF

There were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday yet the franc managed to score gains against the dollar, which was sold off because of weak existing home sales. There are no reports again from the Switzerland today, which could mean quiet trading for USD/CHF as there are no major reports from the US.

JPY

The yen continued to benefit from the recently concluded elections in Japan, which showed that Abe and his party was able to secure a landslide victory. There are no reports due from Japan today, which suggests that the yen could be in for quiet trading or could be sensitive to risk sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls were able to benefit from the rise in commodity prices on Monday, as AUD/USD climbed past the .9200 handle while USD/CAD broke below the short-term support. Canada is set to print retail sales data today and small improvements are expected while New Zealand will release its trade balance in the upcoming Asian session. A trade deficit of 102 million NZD is expected to follow the previous 71 million NZD surplus, which might be negative for the Kiwi.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 24, 2013)

USD

Dollar weakness was still evident in yesterday’s trading, as EUR/USD broke higher while the commodity currencies extended their wins against the Greenback. Only the Richmond manufacturing index was released from the US and it showed a disappointing -11 reading instead of improving from 8 to 7. This revealed that there are still some inherent weaknesses in the US economy, which reminded traders that the Fed taper isn’t set in stone just yet. For today, new home sales and crude oil inventories are up for release. Remember that existing home sales came in weak earlier this week, which increases the chance for a downside surprise in new home sales.

EUR

The euro ended the day higher against the dollar again, despite the lack of data from the euro zone. Euro zone PMIs from Germany and France are up for release today and markets are expecting tiny improvements in the manufacturing and services sectors of both economies. Although most of the figures are projected to stay below 50.0 and indicate contraction, strong data could help lift the euro against its counterparts.

GBP

The pound managed to pocket some gains against the dollar yesterday, even though the BBA mortgage approvals report came in weak. The figure logged in a 37.3K increase, higher than the previous 36.3K reading but lower than the estimate at 38.5K. Still, an increase is an increase, and this was received positively by pound traders as it indicates that the government’s Funding for Lending Scheme is bearing fruit. CBI industrial orders expectations are due today and the figure is estimated to improve from -18 to -12, indicating that the decline was slower during the period.

CHF

No reports were released from Switzerland yet the franc continued its winning ways. Switzerland’s schedule is still empty for today, which suggests that USD/CHF and EUR/CHF could take their cues from US data and euro zone reports respectively.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it remained sensitive to currency-specific data of its counterparts. The good news from Japan though is that the BOJ upgraded their growth forecasts for the third month in the row, revealing that the central bank believes their stimulus efforts are working out. The trade balance came in slightly below consensus as it printed a -0.6T JPY reading instead of the estimate at -0.58T JPY, but was still better than the previous -0.78T JPY figure.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Not even the drop in commodity prices was able to keep the comdolls from ending with wins, as AUD/USD reached the .9300 area while USD/CAD dipped to 1.0300. New Zealand’s trade balance came in much better than expected at 414M instead of the estimate at 5M, allowing NZD/USD to come close to .8000. Canadian retail sales also posted a strong upside surprise while Australian quarterly CPI came in as expected. Chinese flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC was weaker than estimated though, as it slipped from 48.2 to 47.7 instead of improving to 48.6.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 25, 2013)

USD

The US dollar regained its strength in yesterday’s trading as a combination of risk aversion and strong US new home sales boosted the safe-haven currency. The actual new home sales figure showed a 497K reading, higher than the estimated 482K figure. However, the previous month’s report was revised down to show a 459K figure. US durable goods orders data are scheduled for release today and the headline figure is slated to print a 1.1% increase while the core version of the report could show a 0.5% uptick. Stronger than expected data could lift the dollar against its counterparts once more.

EUR

Euro zone PMI figures all came in stronger than expected for July, with Germany’s reports showing an expansion in its manufacturing and services industries. This was enough to push the region’s manufacturing PMI above the 50.0 mark as well, showing that the industry grew for the month. Spanish jobs data and German Ifo business climate index are up for release today. Germany’s business climate reading is expected to improve from 105.9 to 106.3 while Spain’s jobless rate could hold steady at 27.2%.

GBP

The pound was unable to hold on to its recent gains against the dollar as GBP/USD failed to break past the 1.5400 handle. UK CBI industrial orders expectations came in line with consensus, as it improved from -18 to -12. The UK preliminary GDP figure is up for release today and a 0.6% growth figure is expected. Stronger than expected data could push GBP/USD past 1.5400 while weak data could trigger a sharper selloff.

CHF

There were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday, leaving the franc victim to dollar strength. Switzerland’s schedule is empty again today, which suggests that USD/CHF could move according to US data once more.

JPY

Japanese CSPI came in weaker than expected at 0.4% instead of the estimated 0.7% increase. Inflation data is coming up in the next Asian session and these could be crucial in determining if the BOJ’s stimulus plans are still working or if additional easing is needed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi gave way to dollar strength yesterday, as both commodity currencies were weighed down by weak Chinese PMI. HSBC reported a deeper contraction of 47.7 for July as the index was expected to improve from 48.2 to 48.6. Australian quarterly CPI came in line with consensus at 0.4%, which suggests that the RBA doesn’t need to implement additional stimulus anytime soon. As for the Loonie, CAD bulls continued to push the currency higher against most of its other counterparts thanks to strong Canadian retail sales for May.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 26, 2013)

USD

The US dollar continued to cave under the higher-yielding currencies in yesterday’s trading, as mixed durable goods orders data led traders to believe that the U.S. recovery is unsustainable. The headline figure showed a 4.2% jump, mostly driven by automobile sales, while the core figure remained flat. No reports are due from the U.S. today, which opens up the possibility of profit-taking ahead of the weekend.

EUR

The euro continued to edge higher against the dollar, as EUR/USD tapped the 1.3300 area during the U.S. session. German Ifo business climate came in line with consensus at 106.2, which is a good improvement from the previous month’s figure. For today, there are no major reports from the euro zone. Only the German consumer prices report is up for release at 7:00 am GMT.

GBP

The pound had a choppy trading day, especially after the release of the UK preliminary GDP figure. The actual report showed a 0.6% uptick as expected, but this appeared to disappoint pound traders as the currency suffered a quick selloff against most of its counterparts upon the release. No reports are due from the U.K. today.

CHF

There were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, which suggests that the franc could continue to take advantage of the ongoing dollar weakness.

JPY

The yen enjoyed some gains against the dollar, as Japan printed another round of increases in consumer price levels. Tokyo showed a 0.3% uptick as expected while the national core CPI printed a 0.4% increase, higher than the estimated 0.3% rise. This reflects how the BOJ’s massive stimulus efforts are working and that no additional stimulus is needed for now.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

NZD/USD enjoyed a strong rally in yesterday’s trading when the RBNZ adopted forward guidance in announcing that the low rates would last until 2014 only. This prompted speculations of a rate hike, which pushed NZD/USD to the .8100 mark. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar was able to recover most of its recent losses to the dollar as it edged back above the .9200 handle.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 29, 2013)

USD

Dollar pairs were stuck in consolidation last Friday, as there were no major reports released from the United States. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment figure was revised a bit higher, but it did very little to support the US dollar. For today, the pending home sales figure is up for release and a 1.1% decline is expected. A larger than expected drop could be very negative for the dollar, although traders might be hesitant to take large dollar positions ahead of the FOMC statement and GDP release on Wednesday.

EUR

The euro consolidated against the dollar on Friday, as there were no reports released from euro zone then. The euro zone schedule is still empty again for today, which suggests more quiet trading for EUR/USD. The main event for the euro this week is the ECB rate statement scheduled during the latter half. Until then, euro traders might refrain from pushing the shared currency in a particular direction.

GBP

After the volatile behavior midweek, GBP/USD stayed inside its ranges on Friday as there were no major reports from the U.K. then. Only medium-tier reports, such as mortgage approvals, net lending to individuals, and CBI realized sales are due from the UK today. Strong data could provide support for the pound while weak reports could undermine its strength.

CHF

The franc consolidated against the dollar on Friday but USD/CHF selling pressure still appears strong. The pair is on track to test the support around the .9200 major psychological level at the moment. There are no reports up for release from Switzerland again today, which suggests that USD/CHF could stay in consolidation.

JPY

The yen continues to enjoy support from improved Japanese data. The Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.3% uptick as expected while the national core CPI printed a higher than expected 0.4% increase in price levels. Earlier today, Japan released its retail sales figure and showed a 1.6% increase, close to the consensus of 1.7%. More reports from Japan, such as the household spending and industrial production figures, are due in the upcoming Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls stayed in consolidation on Friday, as though waiting for more clues before resuming their recent action. Only the building consents data is due from New Zealand later today and it is expected to show another positive figure.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 31, 2013)

USD

The dollar bounced back to life in yesterday’s trading as it gained against most of its major counterparts. Data from the US hasn’t been exactly very strong, as the CB consumer confidence figure actually came in weaker than expected. Instead of dipping from 81.4 to just 81.1, the index fell to 80.3. The advanced GDP is up for release today and 1.1% growth is eyed for the second quarter of the year, lower than the previous quarter’s 1.8% reading. The FOMC statement is also scheduled during the later part of the US session, and the Fed might be able to set the record straight regarding their asset purchases.

EUR

Although euro zone figures came in mostly better than expected yesterday, the euro was no match to dollar strength as traders liquidated most of their positions ahead of the top-tier US data today. German GfK consumer climate improved from 6.8 to 7.0 while Spanish GDP came in line with consensus at -0.1%. German retail sales and jobs data are due today and this might have an impact on EUR/USD, but traders might stand pat ahead of the US events.

GBP

The pound lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, even if the GfK consumer confidence figure for the UK was stronger than estimated. The reading improved from -21 to -16, outpacing the consensus at -19. There are no major reports on tap from the UK today, leaving traders to take their cues from the major events in the US.

CHF

The lack of major reports from Switzerland left the franc powerless against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. Today, Switzerland will release its UBS consumption indicator and KOF economic barometer. Both of these reports could support the franc during the London session if they come in stronger than expected or show significant improvements.

JPY

The yen edged higher against its counterparts and managed to hold on to its current levels to the dollar. Data from Japan was mixed, as the jobs report was strong but spending and production disappointed, leaving the yen mostly directionless. The average cash earnings and housing starts data are due from Japan today, although both reports aren’t likely to cause huge waves for yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdoll gang was weighed down by the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as some traders took profits ahead of today’s key events. Weak building approvals in Australia and New Zealand dragged AUD/USD and NZD/USD lower, but the Loonie managed to stay more resilient as inflation reports from Canada came in strong. New Zealand reported an improvement in ANZ business confidence while Australia released an upbeat private sector credit data, which is providing support for their currencies at the moment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 2, 2013)

USD

The US dollar continued its rallying ways across the charts, pushing USD/JPY above the 99.00 mark and EUR/USD down to the 1.3200 area. Data from the US has been upbeat, with both initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing PMI coming in better than expected. The ISM figure improved from 50.9 to 55.4, its fastest climb since June 1996. The initial jobless claims report showed a 326K reading, lower than the estimate at 346K. For today, the NFP is up for release and could cause a lot of volatility among dollar pairs. A 186K figure is expected, slightly lower than the previous 195K reading but still enough to push the jobless rate down from 7.6% to 7.5%.

EUR

The euro slid lower against the dollar but managed to score some gains against the Japanese yen. The ECB statement turned out as markets expected, with no actual changes to monetary policy but Draghi highlighted some of the improvements in the euro zone economy. Only the Spanish jobs report is up for release from the euro zone today and it is expected to show that the economy added 80K jobs for the month. A higher than expected increase in hiring could lift the euro during the London session.

GBP

The pound weakened to the dollar but strengthened against the yen, as the BOE interest rate decision contained no surprises. BOE Governor Carney kept rates unchanged, as expected. Meanwhile the UK manufacturing PMI printed a strong result of 54.6, higher than the estimate at 52.8. Construction PMI is due from the UK today and it’s expected to rise from 51.0 to 51.6.

CHF

There were no reports from Switzerland as the country was on a holiday. With that, the franc fell victim to dollar strength, pushing USD/CHF out of its downtrend on the shorter-term time frame. For today, the SVME PMI is up for release and it’s expected to improve from 51.9 to 53.1, which could lift the franc against its counterparts.

JPY

The yen was no match to the strength of other major currencies as there were no major reports released from Japan yesterday. The calendar is still empty for today, which suggests that we could see more or less the same behavior from the yen, unless there’s a huge shift in market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to stay resilient against the dollar in yesterday’s trading as upbeat Chinese official manufacturing PMI data helped lift the Australian dollar. For today, the NFP report could be one of the biggest movers for the comdoll gang. Australian PPI came in weaker than expected at 0.1% instead of the estimate at 0.5%, which suggests the RBA does have room to ease if needed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 6, 2013)

USD

The US dollar lost ground to some of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading as risk sentiment seemed to improve and favor the higher-yielding currencies. As for economic data, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI report came in stronger than expected as the reading climbed from 52.2 to 56.0, outpacing the consensus at 53.2. Only the trade balance is up for release today and the deficit is projected to narrow from 45 billion USD to 43.1 billion USD.

EUR

The euro was able to hold on to its recent gains against the dollar, as EUR/USD continued to trade close to the 1.3300 major psychological resistance. Data from the euro zone was mixed as the Spanish and Italian PMIs came close to expectations while the region-wide Sentix investor confidence report fell short. The actual reading improved from -12.6 to -4.9, lower than the estimate at 9.8. No major reports are due from the euro zone today, as the only releases are the Italian industrial production and German factory orders.

GBP

The British pound had a stellar performance yesterday as Cable inched close to the 1.5400 major psychological level. UK services PMI came in much higher than expected as it jumped from 56.9 to 60.2, higher than the estimate at 57.4. The manufacturing production is up for release today and it is expected to show a 0.9% rebound from the 0.8% decline seen last time.

CHF

There are no major releases from Switzerland recently, leaving USD/CHF sensitive to US data. The pair was able to rally past the .9300 handle in yesterday’s trading but ended up erasing most of its gains anyway. Consolidation could be the name of the game for USD/CHF today as the medium-tier US trade balance release isn’t expected to cause a lasting reaction.

JPY

The yen continued to edge higher against most of its counterparts, although longer-term time frames still point at consolidation. There were no major reports released from Japan recently but the low-tier leading indicators release printed a weaker than expected reading of 107%.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The bloodbath continued for the comdoll gang, as the Kiwi and Loonie underperformed. For the Kiwi, news of Fonterra’s product recall continued to add selling pressure while the Loonie was unable to draw buying power as Canadian banks were on a holiday. The RBA decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% in their rate statement today and surprisingly triggered a positive reaction from AUD. According to their statement, the RBA is concerned about global and domestic economic performance and analysts are pricing in another rate cut for the year.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 8, 2013)

USD
The U.S. dollar weakened against most of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, as risk appetite continued to stay in the markets. EUR/USD climbed above the 1.3300 handle while GBP/USD reached 1.5500. There were no major reports released from the US then, which explains why the currency was unable to draw any support. For today, the jobless claims data could renew demand for the dollar as the report is slated to show 336K in first-time unemployment claimants for the previous week.

EUR
The euro was able to hold on to most of its recent gains, as the German industrial production report printed stronger than expected results. The actual figure showed an increase of 2.4%, higher than the estimate of a 0.3% uptick and the previous month’s 0.8% decline. German trade balance and the ECB monthly bulletin are due from the euro zone today.

GBP
Pound trading was much more volatile yesterday as the BOE’s inflation report rocked the pound pairs. At first, the pound underwent heavy selling when BOE Governor Carney said that the interest rate will be tied to the jobless rate, which they want to see to drop to 7% before tightening. In addition, they specified that inflation and financial stability will also have a say in monetary policy adjustments. However, the pound was able to recover when the central bank upgraded their growth forecasts for this year and next year. No reports are due from the UK today.

CHF
Switzerland printed weaker than expected data yet the franc was still able to outpace most of its counterparts. The SECO consumer climate figure came in at -9 instead of improving from -5 to -2 while the CPI report showed a 0.4% decline in price levels, worse than the estimated 0.1% downtick. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and it’s expected to stay at 5.2%.

JPY
The yen continued to pack its gains against its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, although traders took profits prior to today’s BOJ interest rate statement. No monetary policy changes are expected but the policymakers might highlight the recent improvements in the Japanese economy and suggest that they could reduce stimulus, which could be positive for the yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to recover against the Greenback during the US session, although the Loonie saw some weakness when Canada printed bleak figures. The Ivey PMI fell short of expectations and came in at 48.4 instead of climbing from 55.3 to 56.3. The building permits was also significantly weaker than expected at a 10.3% decline, worse than the estimate of a 2.5% drop. Australian jobs data was mixed, with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.7% and the employment change weaker than expected at -10.2K. Chinese trade balance is up for release within the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 12, 2013)

USD
The dollar bounced back to action against some of its counterparts on Friday, as traders booked profits off their short trades ahead of the weekend. There were no major reports released from the US then, but the wholesale inventories release which turned out stronger than expected may have also lifted the Greenback. For today, only the Federal budget balance is up for release from the US and this isn’t likely to cause huge waves among dollar pairs, unless there are significant surprises.

EUR
EUR/USD retreated after reaching the 1.3400 major psychological level on Friday, but the pair could be ready to resume its climb this week. Weaker than expected data from France and Italy were responsible for the euro’s slide that day, although traders remain optimistic that the improvements in Germany could still provide support for the entire region. There are no reports due from the euro zone today though.

GBP
The pound was stuck in consolidation last Friday, even though the UK trade balance came in better than expected. The deficit stood at 8.1 billion GBP, smaller than the estimated 8.4 billion GBP shortfall and the previous 8.7 billion GBP deficit. There are no reports due from the UK today, which suggests that further consolidation could be in the cards.

CHF
The franc was able to hold on to its recent gains against the US dollar last week. There were no reports released from Switzerland on Friday yet the pair was able to take advantage of risk appetite and dollar weakness. Swiss retail sales are up for release today and an improvement from 1.8% to 1.9% is eyed. If the actual figure comes in strong, the franc could be in for more gains.

JPY
Japan printed weaker than expected consumer confidence last week, as the figure dipped from 44.3 to 43.6 instead of improving to 45.3. This reveals that not all Japanese citizens are confident that the economy is seeing improvements, in contrast to what government officials and BOJ policymakers believe. Earlier today, Japan’s preliminary GDP figure fell short of consensus as it printed 0.6% growth, lower than the estimate at 0.9%. Revised industrial production and preliminary machine tool orders data are due later today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls continued to flex their muscles on Friday, as AUD/USD climbed to the .9200 mark while NZD/USD kept inching higher. What’s surprising though is that Chinese CPI came in weaker than expected at 2.7% instead of the 2.8% estimate while Canada’s jobs data fell short of consensus. Hiring fell by 39.4K in July instead of rising by 6.2K, bringing the unemployment rate up from 7.1% to 7.2%. There are no reports due from these economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 13, 2013)

USD
The US dollar started the week on a strong note, despite the Federal budget balance release which confirmed that the government surplus of more than 100 billion USD has turned into a deficit of nearly 100 billion USD. There were no other reports released from the US yesterday, as traders gear up for the release of US retail sales figures today. Stronger increases are eyed for July, although the possibility of a downside surprise is on the table since the July jobs figures missed expectations.

EUR
The euro came under selling pressure again yesterday as news that Greece would need another round of bailout funds hit the airwaves. With that, traders seemed to ignore the better than expected GDP reading of Greece, which showed that the nation contracted by only 4.6% for the second quarter instead of the estimated 4.9% drop in growth. For today, German ZEW figures are on tap and it is likely it that it will show an improvement from 36.3 to 40.3 in August. Euro zone industrial production data and ZEW economic expectations figures are also due today.

GBP
The pound was no match to dollar strength on Monday, as GBP/USD broke below the 1.5500 major psychological level and dipped to 1.5450. There were no economic reports released from the UK yesterday and today has the CPI figures on tap. The CPI is expected to be at 2.8%, a notch lower than the previous 2.9% reading. However, stronger than expected readings might be positive for the pound as it could convince the BOE to scale back on its stimulus efforts.

CHF
The Swiss retail sales figure beat expectations of a 1.9% increase and came in at 2.3%. This was also better than the previous reading of 1.8%. However, the franc still gave way to dollar strength in yesterday’s trading as USD/CHF pulled up a few pips close to the .9300 handle. There are no reports from Switzerland today so watch out for the US retail sales release if you’re trading USD/CHF.

JPY
The yen was outpaced by most of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading as Japan’s GDP report printed a weaker than expected reading of 0.6% instead of the estimated 0.9% growth. Earlier today, core machinery orders showed a smaller than expected decrease of 2.7% compared to the estimate of a 7.1% decline. No other reports are due from Japan today so yen pairs might be affected by fundamentals or risk sentiment mostly.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
There were no major releases from the comdolls in yesterday’s trading, although some retreated from their recent rallies. AUD/USD was unable to make any headway past the .9200 handle as it dropped back down to the .9100 area while USDCAD held steady around 1.0300. There are no major releases from Australia and Canada but New Zealand is set to print its quarterly retail sales figures in the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 14, 2013)

USD
The Greenback enjoyed stellar gains in yesterday’s trading, as the US retail sales report came in better than expected. In particular, the core version of the report showed a 0.5% uptick, which is better than the estimate of a 0.4% increase, while the headline figure came in at 0.2% as expected. On top of that, the June figures enjoyed significant upward revisions, enough to convince most traders that the Fed will push through with its plans to reduce bond purchases in September. PPI figures are on tap today and these could be treated as clues on how the CPI data will turn out. Stay tuned for FOMC voting member Bullard’s speech as well.

EUR
The euro lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading but managed to score some gains against the yen. German ZEW economic sentiment came in better than expected while the euro zone ZEW also beat expectations. However, euro zone industrial production fell short of consensus as the actual figure showed a 0.6% increase instead of the estimated 1.1% growth. For today, the euro could be in for strong moves as the GDP figures are up for release. Indications that the region could be out of the long recession could trigger a strong rally as early as the release of the French and German GDP around the start of the London session.

GBP
The pound posted strong gains against the yen and managed to hold on to its current levels against the dollar, as the UK printed CPI that was in line with expectations of a 2.8% increase. This means that inflation is still way above the central bank’s 2% target and that this might lead them to think about dialing back their stimulus sooner rather than later. Claimant count change is up for release today and another decline in joblessness is projected.

CHF
The franc gave way to dollar strength in yesterday’s trading as there were no major releases from Switzerland. Swiss PPI is up for release today and a 0.4% uptick in producer prices could be printed, which might be positive for the franc. On the other hand, lower than expected producer price inflation could worsen the ongoing franc selloff.

JPY
The yen lost a lot of ground in yesterday’s trading, brought in part by economic improvements in its currency counterparts. What really triggered the strong selloff though was a news report that revealed Abe is considering reducing corporate taxes in order to make up for the increase in consumption tax. He hopes to spur consumer spending and also encourage foreign investment in the process, leading to a strong Nikkei rally and a yen selloff. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
There were no major reports released from Australia and Canada, as New Zealand was the only comdoll economy with data. The quarterly retail sales release came in stronger than expected as the headline figure showed a 1.7% increase while the core version of the report printed a 2.3% jump. There are no other reports due from the comdolls today so watch out for commodity price behavior and market sentiment to dictate price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 15, 2013)

USD
The dollar weakened yet again in yesterday’s trading as the PPI reports turned out to be a disappointment while Bullard’s speech cautioned against easing too soon. This throws water at the Fed’s Septaper plans, considering how Bullard is a voting member of the FOMC. For today, CPI figures are up for release and it might be disappointing as well. Also due today are the initial jobless claims and a couple of manufacturing indices, which are likely to show improvements. However, weaker than expected data could continue to undermine the dollar’s performance for the rest of the week.

EUR
The euro zone is officially out of the recession, as seen from the GDP figures which printed growth of 0.3% versus the estimated 0.2%. However, this wasn’t good enough for the euro as the currency didn’t rally at all after the release. Instead, it even lost ground as some traders thought that the figures were not good enough. For today, banks in the euro zone are on a holiday so there might not be enough liquidity in the euro session.

GBP
The UK printed better than expected jobs data, as claimants dropped by nearly 30K again. This was enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 7.8%. For today, retail sales are up for release and a higher than expected growth of 0.7% is eyed compared to the previous 0.2% uptick. Another strong figure could lift the pound higher, possibly above 1.5600 against the dollar.

CHF
The franc lost ground to the dollar yet again even though Switzerland printed an improvement in its ZEW expectations report. This was probably because Swiss PPI came in weaker than expected as it printed a flat reading. No other reports are due from Switzerland for the rest of the day.

JPY
The yen continued showing signs of weakness as it lost appeal among traders. After all, Abe is going to impose a tax hike, and this could take its toll on consumer spending and businesses. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen might take its cue from Japanese equities.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)
The comdolls were able to take advantage of dollar weakness in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD retested .9200 and NZD/USD landed back above .8000. There were no major reports, except for the New Zealand retail sales and the improvement in Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence figure. No other reports are due from the comdolls for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.