Global markets continued to fall, including equities, and commodities as investors were in full risk aversion mode. Traders are moving in droves to the safe harbor, of the US dollar and the Japanese Yen. Political turmoil ranging from France to Greece has upset markets. The EU had stated that they will without the rest of the bailout money from Greece until political issues are resolved. In Spain, the government has had to step in and take over the largest bank, Bankia. Economic worries have spooked markets and forced Spain’s borrowing costs to skyrocket.Gold continues to decline along with oil. Yesterday the EIA release crude oil inventory reports showing that crude oil inventories had continued to rise. In early morning Asian news, equity markets continued to decline, as data released in China showed a continued slowdown, while Australia reported a better the forecast unemployment report.
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FOREX NEWS :
Trade surplus wider than expected in April
AUD/USD dives on worse than expected China data, back below 1.0100
GBP/AUD off from fresh yearly highs 1.6074 back below 1.6000
EUR/AUD slips after upbeat Aus. jobs data
The euro is weak, having lost close to 0.2% against the USD, but still trading within Wednesdays range. The inability to break below 1.2955 was reassuring for EUR bulls in an environment where most drivers are turning rapidly bearish. Having broken the 1.2955 in yesterday, we will see the bears continue to gain strength. The markets are taking a breather this morning as the euro has recovered to 1.2951 after opening at 1.2927 It seems to be moving down again now and if there is a break below 1.2922 that could lead to an acceleration of the move lower, with support at 1.2818 targeted from both a monthly and a weekly pivot. A recovery on the other hand would most likely see the exchange rate struggle higher to fill the gap at 1.3080.
The 1.6142 line is now fluid, after providing support for the past two weeks. This is followed by the psychologically important support level of 1.60, which could be tested if the dollar continues to rally. Next, 1.5930, which saw a lot of movement by the pair in April, has been providing strong support for the pair. Below, there is support at 1.5805, which also was tested in April. The next support level is 1.5750, which has provided support since mid-March. The final line for now is 1.5648, which was last tested in March. Overall technicals are mixed ‐ indicators that remain bullish are waning, though near term support is found at the 21 day MA-1.6098. Resistance remains at the 9 day MA -1.6189
Technical are showing bearish ‐ the value of the RSI indicator is negative and declining, MACD is thinly negative and steady, while CCI has crossed down the 100 line on the 1-hour chart, giving over all short signals. A break above yesterday's top and nearest resistance 80.08 would encourage further recovery of the dollar. Immediate support is today's bottom at 79.60, and consistent break below it could strengthen the yen further down towards next target 78.76.
Global equities continue to retreat despite a decent round of overnight fundamentals, as Greece's high stakes election drama weighs on market sentiment. European equity benchmarks are lower and Dow futures are suggesting a tiny drop at the market open. Global currency markets are divided with the A$, NZ$, pound sterling and CAD all up against the USD while the won, Scandinavian currencies and the rand are all lower and the euro is flat. Most European debt markets are rallying or are flat across 10s except for UK 10s that were disappointed by flat stimulus from the BoE.
Solid European manufacturing data didn’t much help the global market tone. French manufacturing production climbed 1.4% m/m and far surpassed consensus expectations for a small drop, even as total industrial production fell thanks to lower electricity and gas production following the prior month’s massive gain in this category. Italian manufacturing also climbed 0.5% and surpassed expectations. UK manufacturing production climbed 0.9% m/m which nearly doubled consensus. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is sticking to her guns and good for her. She reiterated this morning that deficit financed stimulus to growth is a misguided path, and that austerity is the only solution. This continues to put the Franco-German partnership on a collision course over the summer. In the US yesterday data was received with mixed sentiment. Chairman Bernanke’s speech was market neutral. Chinese data has been lackluster, but not market movers.
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Major bearish reversal pattern has broken psychological support at 1.3000. A sustained close below 1.3000 unlocks the important multi-month reversal pattern for a fast move into 1.2626 (16 January). Only a sustained daily close back above 1.3284 puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3430/60 (200-day average). Signals all continue to remain bearish
Watch for more choppy activity over the short-term the overall tone remains positive. A return to 1.6199 would suggest completion of the correction, setting the stage for an attack on 1.6302 then 1.6500/1.6618 (psychological) as the bull run extends. A close back below 1.6063 from here would suggest stalling upside momentum, with support at 1.5805 watch for key support at 1.5603.
The yen continues to trade within a multi-week bear channel, only a snap back above the upper ceiling near 80.50 signals a potential recovery higher into 82.00. This may offer renewed buying opportunities. A sustained weakness beneath 80.00-80.12 (38.2% Fibonacci retrace/January advance), will lead to further setbacks into critical support at 79.16 (61.8% Fibonacci).
Markets continue to reel over European uncertainties as they open the week in risk-aversion mode. Greece was unable to form a government over the weekend, and will go back to the polls to try to elect new parties. Spain’s ongoing financial woes and growing worries over the banks in Spain also weigh on the markets. The US dollar and the Japanese Yen, continue to maintain strength as investor’s park funds in safe havens. Gold and crude oil continue to fall, as most USD denominated currencies cannot support the high dollar at present. Even gold trading under the 1600 price is too expensive with the current dollar value. The early part of the week, is thin on eco data, but should be big in political drama as the EU Finance Ministers have called an Emergency meeting today to discuss the future of Greece.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-05-14 08:00 GMT | Italy - Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)
2012-05-14 08:00 GMT | Italy - Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)
2012-05-14 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union - Industrial Production w.d.a.
2012-05-14 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union - Industrial Production s.a.
FOREX NEWS :
2012-05-14 06:10 GMT | Germany: Wholesale Price Index rises 0.5% in April
2012-05-14 06:00 GMT | Germany: Wholesale Price Index (MoM) grows 0.5% in Apr; (YoY) up 2.4%
2012-05-14 01:41 GMT | Australia: Housing finance rises 0.3% in March
2012-05-14 01:31 GMT | Australia Mar Investment Lending for Homes declines to -1%
The sustained close below 1.3000 unlocked the important multi-month reversal pattern for a fast move into 1.2626 (16 January swing low). This morning MA 10 -20 all read sell, technical indicators are all reading sell, although the 5day MA is a buy signal. This might be an opportunity to buy on the dips below the 1.29 price. Support is found at the 1.28 level. Meanwhile, only a sustained daily close back above 1.3284 (01st May high), puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3430/60 (200-day average).
The sterling should see further choppy activity over the short-term the overall tone remains positive and we look for 1.6063 to more or less contain current weakness. The pair will most likely recapture of 1.6199 suggesting completion of the correction, setting the stage for an attack on 1.6302 then 1.6500/1.6618 (psychological/August reaction high) as the bull run extends.
The yen’s bearish pullback remains weak beneath but has pushed through the key psychological level at 80.00. We are looking at weakness beneath 80.00-80.12 (38.2% Fibonacci retrace/January advance), which will lead to further setbacks into critical support at 79.16 (61.8% Fibonacci). Today’s momentum pushes within a multi-week bear channel. Only a snap back above the upper ceiling near 80.50 signals a potential recovery higher into 82.00.
Today, French President elect Hollande will be sworn into office. Over the next few weeks he will build a government, in the meantime he will appoint an temporary government. These appointments should give us some insight into his economic and financial plans and thoughts.The negative sentiment from the eurozone colors the global markets, as risk aversion remains the mode. With the leadership and the direction of the EU in question and the ongoing turmoil in Greece and increasing debt problems in Spain, markets are worried about who and how the eurozone will attempt to control and turn around the future of Europe. Data out this week might show that the eurozone has slipped back into recession. The overflow of the eurozone declining economic situation is harming its neighbors around the globe from China to the US. Commodities continue to fall, especially those that are USD denominated. The yen is reaching historical highs, which is a difficult situation for Japan. The USD still remains strong. Greece either leaving or being ousted from the euro becomes more likely each passing day.
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FOREX NEWS :
2012-05-15 05:00 GMT | Japan Apr Consumer Confidence Index declines to 40
2012-05-15 04:40 GMT | EUR/USD above 1.2800 ahead of a very busy morning in London
2012-05-15 04:23 GMT | GBP/USD within tight 20-pip range ahead of UK trade data
2012-05-15 03:32 GMT | AUD/JPY off 4-month lows, still below 80.00
The risk adverse sentiment saw the pair march right through boundary at the 1.2875 and 1.2850 levels. In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 1.2800, 1.2700 and then at 1.2624 (2012 low). On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.2935/58 and then at 1.2979. The sustained closes below 1.3000 unlocks the important multi-month reversal pattern for a fast move into 1.2626. Daily indicators are all showing strong sell supported by MACD, RSI and ADX. MA 5-200 all read sell. Stochastic is deep in an oversold situation.
There is still no indication of a trend reversal, even as the pace of the decline is halted. At this time the pair is at 1.6085 and bouncing on the S4. This appears to have corrected the last up move. We should see an initial bounce to go to 1.6125. We are bullish above 1.6125 to the R5 at 1.6199 with the lower target at the support at 1.6014.
The U.S. dollar/yen is currently testing the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) which is around 79.70/79.75, and has acted as support on recent tests,. The pair remains within a bearish medium-term channel with resistance around the 21-day SMA and weekly cloud top that converge around 80.45.
While the broad sentiments prevailing in the market continue to be bearish, commodities and shares were seen rising following a rebound in euro. Recovery in Euro from a four month low after a surprisingly strong German GDP data took the pressure off the market and slightly lifted the sentiments. German economy grew 0.5 per cent in the first quarter against the expectation of 0.1 per cent. Euro Zone GDP data indicated that the region avoided recession though the economy continued to remain fragile. However, the overall sentiments were feeble on deepening worries over euro zone crisis and political uncertainty in Greece. Shortly after the exhilaration wore off the euro began to plummet hitting new recent lows to trade at this time at 1.2724.
Market mood continue to remain skeptical as investors fretted about the possibility of a Greek exit from the Euro zone. Financial markets would be fervently watching out for political events in Europe for further cues. With Europe reeling under both financial and political strain, all eyes are on today’s meet between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and new French president Francois Hollande. US eco data was neutral, with retail sales coming in soft.
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The Euro fell to quickly in Asian trading to validate the downtrend it also has pushed indicators and oscillators to their maximum reading, Current reading are miscued. We will have to re-evaluate numbers and movement later today. The price action on Monday was negative, and the fact that the 1.29 level finally gave way we showed support had been broken. The 1.29 was the last remnant of the support level in our view. The 1.26 level looks to be the next major support level, and although there will be bounces along the way, the headlines should continue to punish the Euro going forward. However, this pair will more than likely continue to be choppy. We would sell rallies on signs of failure, and a break below the Monday lows.
The current bout of risk aversion this week does not turn into panic; the GBP/USD has a chance to pop up toward the 1.6160 pivot in any short-term bout of risk appetite or stabilization. The next resistance above 1.6160 is a declining trend line which should meet price in the 1.6250-1.6280 area. Technicals all remain bearish with support at 1.6000, though downside set to continue. This morning’s surge has pushed the GBP below the psychological 1.60 price level. Support can be found at 1.58543 and 1.56722
The pair is trading between two moving averages (100 and 200). If the pair breaks 79.707, the pair will decline to 79.070. In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 79.68/61 and then at 79.43. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 80.30/40 and 80.61 Indicators read a strong buy, although RSI has moved to neutral and MACD is in the sell range. MA 10 and 20 both show buy signals.
Positive US economic data failed to lift markets. While US April housing starts were higher and industrial production rebounded, US markets sold off as the trading session continued, slipping on news that the ECB might cut funding to Greek banks. US equity indices were down by roughly 0.5% while Canadian equities performed somewhat more strongly. WTI fell by US$1.30 to close at $92.68 and the DXY was up moderately on the session. For a full write-up of today’s US and Canada economic data releases, please see the Economic Data Recap section below.
The Fed released the minutes from its April 24-25 meeting today, and they are making headlines for reasons that we find hard to discern. The minutes included the sentence “several members indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation could be necessary if the economic recovery lost momentum or the downside risks to the forecast became great.” Minutes from the March 13 meeting said “A couple of members indicated that the initiation of additional stimulus could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run.” Market sentiment will remain negative towards Europe and the continued sell off of European assets is ongoing. Without some positive news or results in Greece, with lack of overall guidance by the EU and continued worries about Spain, the current situation is expected to hold.
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Technicals are moving to the oversold zone. The bearish trend is clear over weekly charts supported by the negativity on momentum and trend indicators. A break below 1.2625 will be a very negative indication for short and medium-term traders. Today is among key support at 1.2500 and key resistance at 1.2915. The general trend over short-term basis is to the downside targeting 1.1865 as far as areas of 1.3550 remain intact. Although we might see a bounce to the 1.29 level as bulls try to break the 1.30 price
After breaching the psychological level of 1.6000, the pair has dropped violently, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The technical target should be at 1.5820-1.5810 followed by 1.5780 zones. Stochastic remains negative adding further confirmation for the bearish tone. The trading range for today is among key support at 1.5730 and key resistance at 1.6165.
The pair continued consolidating above the psychological level of 80.00 and at the key support level of 80.30 while RSI 14 is on its way to attack the momentum resistance level reading a 50.A breakout above the resistance line of the descending channel is the main reason that supports the bullish expectations for today. Ultimately, a break above 80.50 will confirm and accelerate. The trading range for today is among key support at 78.80 and key resistance now at 81.75.
Asian stocks are getting hammered in this morning’s session as they react to Greece’s debt downgrade and the Spanish banks’ downgrade by rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s. The euro has also given up all of its gains from Thursday and is lower by 0.20% in the morning trade.
On the economic front, we have the Producer Prices from Germany, which are expected to decline to 0.30% and could be slightly negative for the euro. There are no major data releases from the U.S. Today’s market fluctuations will be in response to Greece, Spain and the EU, with little on the eco front worldwide, the press and media will be digging for news and events. Watch for rumors and misquotes on days like today.
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FOREX NEWS :
2012-05-18 04:23 GMT | GBP/USD could fall to 1.57 by early London - 2ndSkies
2012-05-18 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD below 1.2700 ahead of London, G-8 meeting and options expirations
2012-05-18 03:31 GMT | AUD/NZD regains the upside
2012-05-18 02:37 GMT | GBP/JPY hovering above 125.00 after sharp drop
The euro continues neglecting the oversold reading appearing on daily studies due to the strong bearish trend on weekly studies. It is currently re-attacking yesterday’s low around 1.2680 and a break of which will weaken 1.2625 support and may extended towards 1.2530 areas. The bearish picture remains valid for the rest of the day as there is no sign of starting a corrective wave. Key support at 1.2500 and key resistance at 1.2915.
Sterling has entered free-fall territory after achieving a sustained breakout below the uptrend line that carried the movements from 1.5230.Price is being controlled by fundamentals and the strength of the USD. Stochastic are negative which encourages us to keep our bearish scenario intact for the rest of the day while a break below 1.5810 will accelerate. The trading range for today is among key support at 1.5730 and key resistance at 1.6165.
The Japanese yen didn’t show any big move since overnight or during the Asian session. Technicals show a bullish scenario for the rest of the day; reaching the 80.50 zones will confirm and accelerate and also will assist RSI to clear the pivotal momentum resistance at the point of 50.00. The trading range for today is among key support at 78.80 and key resistance now at 81.75.
Equities traded higher today, with US and Canadian markets rallying on news that China might undertake meaningful fiscal stimulus. While industrial metals stocks rallied with the base metals complex, gold stocks fell by 2.4% and gold fell 1.7%. Industrial companies led the way in the US, with the Industrial Engineering subsector appreciating 1.9% while the S&P 500 was up by 0.87%. In short, the ‘China trade’ was in full swing today at least as far as equity markets in Canada and the US was concerned.
While stocks were up, the US dollar was not down: the US dollar index is now trading at its highest level since last September. The Euro broke below the 1.25 EURUSD level mid-day and stayed there for most of the afternoon before rallying back to the 1.25 level at the close. EURUSD continues to make new intraday lows for 2012.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-05-30 08:30 GMT | UK - Consumer Credit (Apr)
2012-05-30 08:30 GMT | UK - Mortgage Approvals (Apr)
2012-05-30 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union - Consumer Confidence
2012-05-30 14:00 GMT | US - Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-05-30 01:39 GMT | Australia: s.a. Retail Sales fall 0.2% in April
2012-05-30 01:33 GMT | Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) -0.2% in Apr
2012-05-30 01:01 GMT | EUR/USD threatening to break lower
2012-05-30 00:06 GMT | USD/JPY sits around 79.50 amid BoJ headlines
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The EUR trading pattern appears to be repeating itself day after day. The middle chart suggests that EUR rallies during the Asian session and into the early European session, but then fails and trends lower to close both the European and North American sessions lower than the open. This suggest some buying in, but a shift In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 1.2495/83 and then at 1.2386. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at the 10DMA line at 1.2539, 1.2590 and then at 1.2620. The value of the RSI indicator is negative and steady; MACD is negative and holding, while CCI has crossed down the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all light short signals.
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The GBP will target the 1.5805 level, low with a violation allowing for more weakness towards the 1.5642/53 levels. A breach of this if seen will aim at the 1.5497 level. RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario is for the pair to halt its weakness and then return above its trendline. This will target the 1.6180. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure having violated its rising trendline.
The market is making lower highs, and higher lows, reflecting a slowing of volatility. The RSI has resorted to the 40-60 range, reflecting consolidation momentum. Also the moving averages are converging together suggesting that the market has been clueless in which direction to take in the 1H time-frame. Giving us the classic congestion breakout, which doesn't always translate into a strong directional clue, but in the short-term, we can be seeing some growth of volatility after the convergence and retest of consolidation highs or low. To the topside, the 80-80.10 area is the very short-term resistance, while the 79.00 area is the support. We are trading in the middle near 79.50.
News out of Europe was highly confusing. One day after unnamed European officials were quoted in the financial press officially denying the possibility that collective European funds would be used to bail out Spanish banks, the European Commission publicly “envisaged” the possibility of a European banking union and direct capital injections into troubled European lenders. Rather than giving markets cause to believe that rescue is imminent, the entire episode points to the reality, seriousness, and immediacy of the problems confronting the European economy – something which markets shrugged off during Q1 2012. Markets may have spent most of the first part of this year weighing whether US jobs were growing at a pace of 200k or 250k per month and whether the S&P 500 should trade above or below the 1400 level, but the focus is now on more ominous issues: the financial crisis in Spain and the cooling of the economy in China, with a healthy dose of concern that a left-wing Greek government might hit the ‘euro exit’ panic button.
Unsurprisingly, on a day during which cash was king, the USD outperformed. EURUSD closed at 1.237 after convincingly breaking through the 1.25 level yesterday. The commodity currencies followed suit, with CAD losing ground and USDCAD closing the day at 1.03.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-05-31 09:00 | European Monetary Union - Consumer Price Index
2012-05-31 12:15 | US - ADP Employment Change
2012-05-31 12:30 | CAD - Current Account
2012-05-3112:30 | US - Gross Domestic Product Annualized
FOREX NEWS :
2012-05-31 06:20 GMT | EUR/USD retreats from highs, failed to breach 1.2400
2012-05-31 06:19 GMT | Germany: Retail Sales rise 0.6% in April
2012-05-31 06:13 GMT | Asian markets followed western fall
2012-05-31 06:03 GMT | Germany Apr Retail Sales (YoY) falls 3.8%
The next major EUR support level is 1.2152, followed by the 2010 low of 1.1877. The market is notably one sided and shorts are at extreme levels, opening up the risk of short covering on any hint of an official response; however the bias remains to the downside, and accordingly we expect a temporary test of 1.2152. Technical indicators remain bearish, with major signals still in sell territory even as RSI enters oversold.
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals are bearish, with major signals still in sell territory; next level is 1.5235. The near‐term risk for GBP is a test down through the psychological 1.55, followed by a move to the ytd low of 1.5235. However, once risk aversion passes, the outlook for GBPUSD is relatively positive, partially on the flows generated from its Triple‐A rating. Supports are seen at 1.5531/17 and then at 1.5415. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at the 10-DMA line at 1.5713/35 and then at 1.5850.
As risk aversion rises on the back of an escalation in the European crisis, USDJPY continues to trend lower, testing the psychologically important 79.00 level. Technicals are bearish but are beginning to become mixed, but trend is lower. Supports eyed at 78.56, which is the 200-DMA line. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 79.16/36 and then at the 21-DMA line at 79.72.
Asian markets have started the day off mixed after US markets rebounded amid hopes for further monetary easing in the United States. The comeback was triggered after Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke gave a gloomy assessment of the economy to Congress and said the Fed would act if the situation worsened, exactly as he had stated after the June FOMC meeting and as stated in the FOMC minutes. In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 12,805.54 on Tuesday, gaining 78.33 points (0.62 per cent) and more than erasing Monday's losses.
The Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange opened up 41.15 points at 8,796.15 this morning. The Hang Seng Index was off by 77.12 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 19,378.21in early trading. Market focus will shift back to the eurozone as we should see Spain and Italy back in the spotlight. Commodities and currencies ended pretty much where they had begun the day.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-07-18 08:30 GMT UK - Bank of England Minutes
2012-07-18 09:00 GMT EMU - Construction Output s.a (May)
2012-07-18 12:30 GMT US - Building Permits (Jun)
2012-07-18 14:00 GMT US - Fed's Bernanke testifies
FOREX NEWS :
2012-07-18 04:40 GMT NZD/USD may enter fresh 0.8005-0.8075 range soon
2012-07-18 04:29 GMT GBP/USD steady around 1.5650 ahead of BoE
2012-07-18 04:17 GMT EUR/USD failing to break above 1.2300
2012-07-18 04:11 GMT China House Price Index flat at -1.5% in Jun
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals remain bearish, but a breach above last week’s high of 1.2336 could change the outlook. The EURUSD rally from 12161 is corrective which can often be a choppy, sideways affair. The initial stop is above 12440. This rally extended to above 1.23 by the today's Asian session. The 1.2320-1.2330 area is the resistance of a previous near-term consolidation. RSI in the four-hour chart is almost 60. If the market is to retain the bearish momentum in this time-frame, the RSI reading tends to find resistance at 60. The one-hour RSI is showing some bearish divergence. A break above 1.2330 exposes the 1.24 key resistance level.
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals remain bullish with a shift to neutral with strong resistance at 50 day MA 1.5647 could limit further gain. The sterling rally has carried price into channel resistance. Resistance is reinforced by the low at 15641 and channel that defines the rally from 15392. The pair continued to struggle around SMA 50 but the bullish sign on Stochastic remains intact. Our outlook keeps the bullish scenario for the rest of the day; noting that a break above 1.5680 will confirm and accelerate the bullish direction towards 1.5780.
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals remain mixed and are hovering close to key 200 day MA 79.05 and declines are limited below 78.80. The pair has reached the -2nd Bollinger band for the first time since early June. The pair has been trapped within a very narrow range since attempting to stabilize at the 79.00 levels. Meanwhile, RSI 14 continued to stabilize below the value of 50.00 suggesting further losses over intraday basis. 7890 is the important support line, if price breaks through we could see a decline to the wide support zones between 78.20 and 77.95. The current trading range is between the key support at 77.60 and key resistance at 80.30.
The USD is weakened by lackluster jobs data as earnings soar.
Asian stocks are trading mixed early this morning with gains in China and Japan whereas the Kospi and Hang Seng indices show slight declines. The euro has also given up its overnight gains as it trades below the 1.23$ mark. Weaker jobs data from the US has increased pressure for the world’s largest economy. European shares soared to a four month high on Thursday as another string of estimate-beating corporate results surprised investors who had braced for a weak show. U.S. Stocks closed higher for a third-straight session in choppy trading Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting its best level since May, but gains were limited following some disappointing economic reports that underscored ongoing weakness in the recovery.
On the economic front, German PPI is to be closely watched. These are expected to come in higher at -0.20%, versus the -0.30% previously. This could provide affect support to the euro in the European session. There are no major data releases from the U.S. Crude oil and gold continued to climb in yesterday's session with tensions in the mid east rising pressurizing prices
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-07-20 06:00 | GMT Germany - Producer Price Index (Jun)
2012-07-20 08:30 | GMT UK - Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jun)
2012-07-20 n/a | EMU - European Council meeting
2012-07-20 12:30 GMT | CAD - Consumer Price Index (Jun)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-07-20 04:26 GMT | EUR/USD waiting for Eurogroup below 1.2300
2012-07-20 02:35 GMT | USD/JPY at session lows, bear trend intact
2012-07-20 02:32 GMT | EUR/JPY at session lows below 96.50
2012-07-20 01:45 GMT | EUR/USD set to end week unchanged
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The pair has worked out the Flag figure and declined to 1.21813. Despite the attempt above 1.2316, there is nothing about the action to suggest that this is an important turn. It’s possible that a high is already in place at 1.2316 but any additional strength should be capped by 1.2333. The pair managed to move above the middle resistance. It retested the level and is now trying to recapture 1.23. This upward move is probably a correction and the downtrend will resume toward 1.20. Support lies at 1.2210 and 1.2160.
SUMMARY : Up TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Signals are bullish as near term resistance at the 50 day MA 1.5629 has been broken, the pair is aiming to the MA 100 at 1.57071. The technical pattern is being reinforced by resistance created by the 1.5740 June 17th high. Further barriers above are likely to compound the sentiment, at the 1.5750 figure. MACD is additionally supportive of a short term retracement, showing a sharp bearish divergence in the hourly time frame. Supports are seen at the 21-DMA line at 1.5585 and then at the 10-DMA line at 1.5563. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.5722 and then at 1.5731 which is the 21-DMA upper Bollinger level.
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technicals remain bearish and the decline continues following breach of 200 day MA 79.07 but signals are moving to the overbought zone. The pair is completing a Head and Shoulders, the first aim was 79.070 which is has broken and the 2nd aim is at 78.345 to complete the move. It has breached temporary support from the lower channel line of the move down and it is possible it may rebound from here although there is not strong reversal pattern yet. A move above the 76.4% Fibonacci line at 79.02 would encourage an upward reaction.
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