Euro remains supported by expectations of an ECB hike and stronger Q2 growth, although weak domestic demand limits the upside. Thursday's ECB decision and Friday's U.S. inflation data are the major catalysts.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1584, 1.1564, 1.1519
Resistance: 1.1622, 1.1637, 1.1659
Recommendation: Prefer buying dips around 1.1608; 1.1584 if the area holds, targeting 1.1622 then 1.1637. A decisive break below 1.1584 would favor shorts toward 1.1564.
Bias: Neutral to mildly bullish, but the pair remains sensitive to dollar strength ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow.
Eurozone growth has been stronger than previously estimated, while expectations for another ECB rate increase provide underlying support. Still, stronger U.S. yields or inflation expectations could limit gains.
The euro is holding around the 1.16 area, with recent trading showing buyers defending lower levels but struggling to establish a sustained move above 1.1637.
Support: 1.1622, 1.1608, 1.1584, 1.1564, 1.1519
Resistance: 1.1637, 1.1659
Forecast: Holding above 1.1608 keeps room for another attempt toward 1.1637–1.1659. A break below 1.1584 would weaken the near-term picture considerably.
Key focus: ECB decision and guidance, U.S. inflation expectations, and overall dollar demand.
The euro remains resilient near 1.16, but the ECB decision is the immediate catalyst. A widely expected rate increase could support EUR/USD if policymakers signal further tightening, while weak French production and the energy shock limit upside.
The dollar has regained slight ground as oil remains above $100 and U.S. yields rise, but upcoming inflation data keeps traders cautious. A softer U.S. inflation picture would help the euro.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1584, 1.1564, 1.1519
Resistance: 1.1637, 1.1659
Forecast: Neutral to mildly bullish above 1.1608; a break above 1.1637 would strengthen the upside case.
Outlook: Neutral to mildly bullish, but the euro faces stronger dollar pressure after the ECB's widely expected rate increase failed to create a lasting upside reaction. Persistent energy inflation keeps the ECB cautious, while firmer U.S. inflation expectations support the dollar. Today's U.S. CPI is the key catalyst; softer inflation could revive euro demand, while a hot reading may push EUR/USD lower.
Support: 1.1623, 1.1608, 1.1584, 1.1564, 1.1519
Resistance: 1.1641, 1.1659
Forecast: Holding above 1.1623 keeps recovery potential alive, but a break below 1.1608 would expose deeper support. A sustained move above 1.1659 would improve the broader upside picture.
CAD: CPI and core inflation measures; Manufacturing Sales
AUD: RBA Assistant Governor Hunter speaks
GBP: CB Leading Index
Tuesday, September 15
CNY: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, New Home Prices and Unemployment
JPY: Tertiary Industry Activity
GBP: Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate
EUR: German WPI, French CPI, Eurozone Trade Balance and German ZEW Sentiment
USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index and weekly employment data
CAD: Wholesale Sales
NZD: Current Account and GDT Price Index
Wednesday, September 16
JPY: Machinery Orders and Trade Balance
GBP: CPI, Core CPI, PPI and RPI
EUR: Eurozone Industrial Production
CAD: Housing Starts and Building Permits
USD: Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Import Prices, Business Inventories and Housing Market Index
USD:Federal Reserve rate decision, economic projections and policy statement, followed by the press conference
NZD: GDP
Thursday, September 17
EUR: Final CPI and Core CPI
GBP:Bank of England rate decision, MPC vote and monetary policy statement
USD: Unemployment Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, Building Permits, Housing Starts and Pending Home Sales
CAD: Foreign Securities Purchases, Industrial Product Prices and Raw Materials Prices
NZD: Trade Balance and Food Price Index
AUD: Leading Index
CHF: SECO Economic Forecasts
Friday, September 18
JPY:Bank of Japan rate decision, policy statement and press conference; National Core CPI
GBP: Retail Sales and GfK Consumer Confidence
EUR: German PPI and Eurozone Current Account; Lagarde speaks
USD: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Leading Economic Indicators
USD: Fed officials Bowman and Schmid speak
AUD: RBA Governor Bullock speaks
Main market focus: The week is heavily centered on Fed, BoE and BoJ decisions, with UK inflation, U.S. retail sales, Japanese inflation and several housing and employment releases likely to create additional volatility.
Market view: EUR/USD remains under pressure after slipping toward the 1.1564 area. The dollar has gained momentum from rising oil prices, geopolitical tension and strong expectations of a Fed hike this week. At the same time, the ECB's recent tightening provides some underlying support for the euro, preventing a deeper one-way decline.
Fundamental picture: U.S. inflation and energy-price pressure keep the Fed focused on tightening, while European inflation and German sentiment remain important for the euro. The contrast currently favors the dollar.
Support:1.1564, followed by 1.1519. A sustained break below 1.1519 would expose the lower part of the recent range.
Forecast: The near-term bias remains bearish to neutral. A recovery above 1.1587 could encourage a broader rebound toward 1.1616;1.1637, but failure there would keep sellers in control. The Fed decision is likely to determine whether the pair breaks lower or finally stages a stronger recovery.
Current Structure: EUR/USD is under renewed pressure after slipping toward the 1.15 area, with the dollar benefiting from rising US yields and positioning ahead of today's Fed decision. Germany's ZEW data showed a better assessment of current conditions, but euro-area expectations remain cautious.
Factors Affecting the Pair: The Fed decision, US retail sales and import prices are the immediate catalysts. The ECB;s recent tightening provides some underlying support, but expensive energy and weaker parts of the euro-area economy limit enthusiasm for the euro.
Forecast: The near-term structure remains pressured while price stays below 1.1564. A sustained break under 1.1524 would expose 1.1502 and potentially 1.1496. Holding that zone could encourage a rebound toward 1.1564;1.1587, particularly if the Fed delivers a less forceful message.
Market view: The euro remains under pressure after the Fed raised rates and signaled that further tightening remains possible. U.S. yields and the dollar retain an advantage, while stronger-than-expected European industrial data has offered limited support. ECB expectations for further tightening prevent a deeper one-way decline, but the immediate tone remains cautious.
Forecast: Holding below 1.1564 keeps downside pressure intact, with 1.1524 the immediate test. A sustained break below could expose 1.1502. Reclaiming 1.1587 would improve the short-term tone and reopen 1.1616;1.1637.
Market tone: EUR/USD remains under pressure after the Fed's 25-bp hike and a clearly firmer policy outlook. The euro has found some stabilization around the mid-1.14 area as the dollar eased slightly with lower oil prices and Treasury yields. Euro-area inflation was revised to 3.2% for August, while the ECB's deposit rate is now 2.50%, leaving the policy gap with the Fed substantial.
Forecast: The near-term structure remains soft below 1.1502. A sustained move above that area could encourage recovery toward 1.1524;1.1564, while renewed dollar strength could expose 1.1437 and 1.1414.
ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK Monday, September 21, 2026
JPY: Japan observes a bank holiday, leaving domestic trading activity relatively quiet.
CNY: China releases the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates, with markets watching for any change in lending conditions.
NZD: New Zealand credit-card spending provides an early read on household demand.
EUR: The German Bundesbank publishes its September monthly report, offering fresh views on Germany's economic conditions.
USD: Federal Reserve Governor Goolsbee is scheduled to speak, while markets continue assessing the Fed's latest policy direction.
EUR/USD: European developments remain important as investors weigh growth concerns against the recent dollar strength.
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
JPY: Japan remains closed for a bank holiday.
AUD: RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaks, keeping Australian monetary policy in focus.
GBP: UK public-sector borrowing is due, followed by the CBI industrial order expectations survey.
EUR: Bundesbank President Nagel and ECB President Lagarde speak, potentially adding detail on the euro-area outlook.
USD: Weekly ADP employment data and the Richmond manufacturing survey arrive alongside several Fed officials speaking.
EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence is also released, giving another indication of household sentiment.
Wednesday, September 23, 2026
AUD: Australia’s preliminary manufacturing and services activity figures open the session.
EUR: France, Germany and the wider Eurozone release preliminary manufacturing and services activity data, making this a key day for the euro.
GBP: UK manufacturing and services activity figures will offer a fresh look at business conditions.
USD: US preliminary manufacturing and services activity figures follow, helping shape expectations for economic momentum.
USD: Federal Reserve officials continue speaking, while US crude-oil inventories may influence energy-sensitive currencies.
Markets are likely to focus on whether business activity is strengthening or losing momentum across the major economies.
Thursday, September 24, 2026
JPY: Japan releases preliminary manufacturing and services activity figures.
AUD: Australian employment data and the unemployment rate will be closely watched for signs of labour-market strength.
CHF: The Swiss National Bank announces its policy decision and holds its press conference.
EUR: German Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations provide an important update on the eurozone's largest economy.
USD: Weekly jobless claims, the US current account and new-home sales are scheduled.
CAD: Canadian retail sales add another important North American growth signal.
Several Fed and BoE officials also speak during the day, keeping central-bank expectations active.
Friday, September 25, 2026
GBP: UK GfK consumer confidence offers a final look at household sentiment for the week, while BoE Governor Bailey speaks later.
EUR: German consumer confidence and euro-area money-supply data provide fresh clues about spending and credit conditions.
USD: Durable-goods orders will highlight business investment and demand for manufactured goods.
USD: The final University of Michigan consumer-sentiment reading is released together with inflation expectations, keeping household inflation concerns in focus.
USD: Additional Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, potentially reinforcing or challenging the tone established after the latest Fed decision.
The week closes with markets balancing growth signals against inflation and monetary-policy expectations.
Current structure: The euro remains under pressure after the recent dollar advance, but the decline is slowing around the 1.1460;1.1490 area. A modest rebound is possible while buyers defend the lower boundary, although the broader tone remains fragile. Recent market commentary also points to continued uncertainty between Fed and ECB policy.
Factors: The Fed;s tighter policy outlook continues to favor the dollar, while elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on European growth expectations. Softer risk conditions could keep demand for the dollar firm.
Support:1.1460, 1.1437, 1.1414, 1.1325
Resistance:1.1492, 1.1524, 1.1564, 1.1587, 1.1616
Forecast: Holding above 1.1460 could encourage a recovery toward 1.1524;1.1564. A sustained break below 1.1437 would expose 1.1414 and potentially 1.1325. Overall, the euro remains vulnerable unless it can regain the 1.1520 area.
Current Structure: EUR/USD remains fragile around the 1.1460;1.1492 area after failing to regain 1.1500. Political uncertainty in Germany and concerns over France's fiscal position are adding pressure, while a firmer dollar continues to limit euro rebounds.
Factors Affecting the Pair: The Feds more restrictive outlook remains the dominant driver. Further hawkish comments from Fed officials could keep dollar demand firm, while any softer rhetoric or improvement in European sentiment could allow the euro to stabilize.
Support: 1.1460, 1.1437, 1.1414
Resistance: 1.1492, 1.1524, 1.1564, 1.1587
Forecast: The near-term tone remains cautious to bearish while EUR/USD stays below 1.1492. A sustained break above that area would improve the recovery picture, while a move below 1.1460 would expose lower support.
Current Structure: EUR/USD remains under pressure after slipping toward the 1.1450 area, with the dollar benefiting from expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep policy restrictive for longer. The eurozone picture is not weak across the board: September composite PMI improved sharply, helped by stronger German activity, but the market has so far given greater weight to the U.S. rate outlook.
Factors Affecting the Pair: The euro is caught between improving regional activity and renewed inflation concerns linked to energy prices. ECB officials remain concerned that another energy shock could keep inflation elevated, while the Fed's recent tone continues to support the dollar.
Forecast: The near-term structure remains vulnerable while EUR/USD stays below 1.1454. A sustained move back above that area could encourage a recovery toward 1.1492 and 1.1524. Failure to regain it keeps attention on 1.1414 and potentially lower levels. The broader direction will depend heavily on whether the dollar's rate advantage persists.
Current Structure: EUR/USD remains under clear pressure after breaking below the psychological 1.1400 area and falling toward a two-month low. The euro has struggled to sustain positive reactions even when European data improve, showing how strongly the dollar is currently influencing direction. Strong US activity, elevated Treasury yields and hawkish Fed messaging continue to outweigh encouraging German and euro-area developments.
Factors Affecting the Pair: German business sentiment and improving euro-area activity offer some support, but the widening policy and yield advantage remains unfavorable for the euro. Higher oil prices are also adding inflation pressure and complicating the European outlook.
Support: 1.1379, 1.1354, then the 1.1339 area.
Resistance: 1.1437, 1.1460, 1.1492, 1.1524.
Forecast: The broader tone remains bearish while the pair stays below 1.1437. A sustained break under 1.1379 would expose lower levels, while recovery above 1.1437 could encourage a corrective rebound toward 1.1460;1.1492. The dollar's strength remains the main obstacle to a lasting euro recovery.
