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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 5, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:
Market Overview:
The GBP/USD pair has recently shown some resilience following more positive-than-expected revised data on UK services sector activity. However, the pair is currently forming a sideways accumulation pattern. The Bank of England (BoE) is navigating a complex environment with warnings about Trump's trade tariffs impacting the UK economy and persistent inflation.4 The OECD has also lowered its UK economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026. The hourly trend is bullish.
Support and Resistance Levels:

• Support: 1.3506, 1.3505, 1.3458, 1.3454, 1.3435, 1.3390, 1.3333, 1.3291, 1.3121
• Resistance: 1.3529, 1.3556, 1.3573, 1.3585

Forecast:
The GBP/USD is in a bullish hourly trend, but currently consolidating. If buyers react at the demand zone near 1.3505, a move towards 1.3556 could be expected. A consolidation below 1.3505 would likely trigger a sell-off towards 1.3454. A break and consolidation below 1.3390 could indicate a resumption of the downtrend. The pair is likely to remain in a range-bound environment unless there are significant deviations in economic data.





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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 6, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:
Gold remains supported by global rate cut expectations, especially from the ECB and potentially the Fed. However, near-term movements hinge on US labor market data and bond yields. Geopolitical tensions and tariffs also underpin demand for safe-haven assets.

• Support: 2320, 2297
• Resistance: 2362, 2390
• Bias: Bullish while above 2320

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Weekly Economic Calendar


June 9 - 13 , 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Wednesday, June 11

• Malaysia (April Industrial Production & Unemployment):
  Key indicators for Southeast Asian economic momentum.
• Japan (May Machine Tool Orders):
  Signals business investment sentiment and global tech sector demand.
• Mexico (April Industrial Production):
  Update on manufacturing strength amidst evolving US-Mexico trade dynamics.
• United States:
  • May Consumer Price Index (CPI):
    The most anticipated data of the week. A higher-than-expected reading could bolster the dollar and delay rate cuts.
  • Monthly Budget Statement (May):
    Insight into fiscal conditions and potential funding gaps.

Thursday, June 12

• UK Economic Releases:
  • RICS House Price Balance (May):
    Measures changes in UK property market confidence.
  • April Monthly GDP, Manufacturing, Services, and Construction Output:
    A detailed look at broad economic activity and sector-specific trends.
  • UK Balance of Trade (April):
    Provides perspective on post-Brexit trade realignments.
• India (May Inflation):
  Closely monitored for implications on central bank policy and food price dynamics.
• Brazil (April Retail Sales):
  A consumer-side view of Brazil’s economic activity.
• United States:
  • Producer Price Index (May):
    Complements CPI data. An uptick could signal rising cost pressures and influence Federal Reserve rhetoric.
• Other Releases:
  • Türkiye (April Industrial Production)
  • Hong Kong SAR (Q1 Industrial Production)
  • Global Supply Chain Volatility Index (May):
    An important gauge in light of persistent disruptions from tariffs and geopolitical tension.

Friday, June 13

• Eurozone Region:
  • Germany, France, Spain (Final May Inflation):
    Final readings that confirm or revise earlier flash estimates.
  • Eurozone (April Trade Balance & Industrial Production):
    Key to understanding the health of the eurozone export engine and overall output.
• Japan (April Final Industrial Production):
  Finalized data on the manufacturing pulse.
• India (May Trade Balance):
  Provides direction on import-export balance and pressure on the rupee.
• Italy (April Trade Data):
  Part of a broader European trade picture.
• United States (University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for June):
  Market attention will be on inflation expectations embedded in the survey.
• UK (KPMG/REC Report on Jobs – May):
  Adds granular detail to earlier labor data, especially on hiring trends and demand for workers.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 10, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:
The pound is supported by improving rate expectations and dollar weakness. While U.S. data had limited impact, pound strength is fragile and hinges on trade talk outcomes. A failed agreement may lift the pound, while successful negotiations could pressure it.

• Support: 1.3548, 1.3505
• Resistance: 1.3570, 1.3616
• Forecast: Short-term trend is bullish above 1.3550. Sustained movement above 1.3570 could lead to 1.3616. Failure to hold 1.3505 may signal renewed selling.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 11, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:
The British pound is under pressure following weaker UK labor data, with rising unemployment and jobless claims casting doubt on the recovery. However, stable first-quarter GDP and firm business activity indicators offer some support. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady at its June meeting. Price action is currently range-bound, with traders waiting for a breakout.

• Support: 1.3505, 1.3454
• Resistance: 1.3563, 1.3580
• Outlook: Neutral to bullish within a narrowing range. A breakout above 1.3563 opens potential toward 1.3616. Sustained losses below 1.3505 would turn the bias bearish.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 12, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:
The pound remains under pressure near 1.35 following soft labor market data, which increased expectations of a Bank of England rate cut. A strong U.S. CPI would add further downside risk. Recovery is possible if U.S. data underwhelms or if key support at 1.3465 holds.

• Support: 1.3454, 1.3435, 1.3390
• Resistance: 1.3530, 1.3545, 1.3575
• Forecast: Bearish below 1.3507; a break under 1.3435 opens downside toward 1.3390.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 13, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:
The pound remains firm after reaching multi-year highs, supported by dovish U.S. inflation and UK fiscal stimulus plans. However, weak UK GDP data weighs on confidence. PPI results from the U.S. may trigger renewed dollar weakness and boost GBP.

• Trend: Bullish short-term
• Support: 1.3540, 1.3465
• Resistance: 1.3616, 1.3641
• Forecast: Rising toward 1.3616; vulnerable if U.S. data surprises to the upside

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Weekly Economic Calendar


June 16 - 20, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Wednesday, 18 June

• Asia: No major releases, market awaits developments from other regions.
• Europe: UK Consumer Price Index figures will provide insight into inflation trends.
• US: Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision later in the session; earlier updates include weekly jobless claims and crude oil inventory.
• Canada: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks mid-session.

Thursday, 19 June

• Asia: New Zealand reports quarterly GDP, followed by Australian Employment data.
• Europe: Swiss National Bank and Bank of England issue rate decisions in the morning.
• US: Markets closed in observance of Juneteenth, creating lower liquidity conditions.

Friday, 20 June

• Asia: China publishes Loan Prime Rate updates; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is scheduled to speak.
• Europe: UK Retail Sales figures released early in the session.
• North America: Canada reports Retail Sales data; later in the day, the US releases the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Market participation may remain subdued following Thursday’s holiday.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 17, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:
The British pound has come under renewed pressure following a disappointing UK GDP print and growing speculation of a more aggressive easing cycle by the BoE. Data showed a month-on-month economic contraction, exacerbated by declining exports to the U.S. due to tariff impacts. Employment figures also point to weakening labor demand, further justifying a dovish policy path.
Despite this, the pair bounced from 1.3533 support and is once again approaching the 1.3603 resistance level. A break above this could lead to a test of 1.3632, while rejection may spark a return to 1.3533 or lower.
Key Factors:

• UK GDP contraction adds pressure on BoE.
• U.S. tariffs weighing on UK exports.
• Flight to safety keeps pound capped.

GBP/USD Levels to Watch

• Support: 1.3533, 1.3465, 1.3390
• Resistance: 1.3603, 1.3632

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 19, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:
Pound Falls Amid Cooling Inflation
Sterling dropped sharply after UK inflation came in softer than expected, especially in the services sector. The slowdown in core and services inflation raises the probability of Bank of England rate cuts, weighing on the currency. The trend has shifted to bearish with a break below 1.3435; a recovery requires consolidation above 1.3583 to alter sentiment.

• Key Factors: Falling inflation, increased BoE rate cut expectations
• Support Levels: 1.3435, 1.3390, 1.3333
• Resistance Levels: 1.3463, 1.3522, 1.3583
• Forecast: Bearish outlook remains unless price regains 1.3583

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 20, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:
Market Overview:
The British pound is holding steady ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy decision. Traders anticipate a cautious tone, which could either dampen or lift sentiment depending on forward guidance. Inflation concerns persist, and rate policy will be critical to short-term pound strength.
Forecast:
Weak buying interest at current support suggests the pound may remain pressured unless policy rhetoric turns hawkish. Any dovish indication could prompt renewed selling toward lower support zones.
Key Levels:

• Support: 1.3390, 1.3333, 1.3291
• Resistance: 1.3463, 1.3522, 1.3583
• Bearish Bias Below: 1.3390
• Bullish Bias Above: 1.3463

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Weekly Economic Calendar


June 23 - 27, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK

• Wednesday
• New Zealand: Trade Balance (May)
• Japan: BoJ Meeting Summary
• Australia: CPI (May)
• Czech Republic: CNB Rate Decision
• Thursday
• Germany: GfK Consumer Sentiment (July)
• UK: CBI Distributive Trades (June)
• US: Durable Goods Orders (May), Final Q1 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims
• US: Powell testifies before Senate
• Friday
• Japan: Tokyo CPI (June)
• France: Preliminary HICP (June)
• Czech Republic: Final Q1 GDP
• Eurozone: Economic Sentiment (June)
• Canada: GDP (April)
• US: PCE Price Index (May), Personal Spending (May), Final U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June)
• US: Powell testifies before House

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 24, 2025



British Pound(GBP/USD) Outlook:
Market Overview:
The pound faces a fragile outlook amid persistent inflation, weak consumer sentiment, and a growing risk of economic deterioration. UK PMI data gave temporary support, but underlying challenges remain—especially with expectations of further fiscal tightening and monetary easing later this year. The geopolitical backdrop adds uncertainty, and despite the dollar's recent gains from safe-haven demand, the pound has managed to hold key levels. Still, the pair remains technically weak, and rebounds are seen as corrective rather than the start of a new uptrend.

• Outlook: Bearish while below 1.3450, especially if support levels break
• Support levels: 1.3388, 1.3333, 1.3291
• Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3522

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 25, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:

• Key Factors:
  • Pound remains firm despite mixed UK data.
  • Market sees GBP as relatively stable amid Eurozone uncertainty.
  • BOE on hold with inflation risks; slow pace of cuts supports GBP.
  • U.S. data and Powell’s testimony could shift momentum.
• Bias: Range-bound to Slightly Bullish
• Support: 1.3509, 1.3450, 1.3388
• Resistance: 1.3583, 1.3686
• Outlook: Above 1.3583 opens path to 1.3686; below 1.3509 signals a deeper pullback.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 26, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:

• Pound surged on broad USD weakness; ignored BoE rhetoric due to market fatigue.
• U.S. data key to intraday moves; dovish Fed may lift GBP further.
• Price bias remains bullish above key support.

Support: 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471
Resistance: 1.3633, 1.3748





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Market Analysis and Forecasts


June 27, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:

• Analysis: Pound benefited from a softer dollar and upbeat sentiment. No major UK data; U.S. factors dominate direction.
• Forecast: Room for short-term upside continuation unless strong U.S. data revives dollar strength.
• Support: 1.3652, 1.3591, 1.3509
• Resistance: 1.3733, 1.3748, 1.3799

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Weekly Economic Calendar


June 29 - July 4, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Wednesday

• Australia announces retail sales
• ECB wraps up Sintra forum with closing comments
• US releases ADP employment change for June

Thursday (Key Day)

• Switzerland releases June CPI
• US publishes June jobs report (Non-Farm Payrolls), unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings
• Weekly jobless claims and ISM services PMI also released
• US markets close early for Independence Day

Friday

• No major data scheduled globally
• US markets remain closed
• Traders monitor for geopolitical updates and potential comments from President Trump

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 1, 2025



Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) Outlook:

• Analysis: Sideways structure within a corrective wave. Trade headlines spark volatility, but lack of direction remains.
• Forecast: Bearish toward 1.3590 if no reversal from current zone. Bullish reversal possible from support.
• Support: 1.3640, 1.3590
• Resistance: 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3850

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 2, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:

• Key Factors: UK PMI remains in contraction; cautious growth outlook; support from new US-UK trade deal.
• Monetary Outlook: BoE less dovish than ECB or Fed; inflation pressure limits downside.
• Support Levels: 1.3675, 1.3652, 1.3591
• Resistance Levels: 1.3748, 1.3838, 1.4000
• Forecast: Range-bound to bullish; holds above 1.3675 with upside toward 1.3838.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 3, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:

• Analysis: Weighed by dovish BoE rhetoric and signs of slowing growth; U.S. data strength could accelerate downside.
• Outlook: Cautiously bearish short term, watch U.S. jobs data for direction.
• Support: 1.3675, 1.3652, 1.3591
• Resistance: 1.3734, 1.3748, 1.4000

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