Major Currencies: AUD/USD
The Australian dollar's recent rebound appears to be corrective rather than a shift in trend. Technical factors suggest a potential continuation of the medium-term downtrend, with downside risks persisting. However, China's economic stimulus efforts provide some support to the currency.
Support Levels: 0.6250, 0.6215, 0.6120
Resistance Levels: 0.6370, 0.6420
Forecast: A break above 0.6400 could invalidate the bearish outlook, allowing a move toward 0.6540. However, failure to hold 0.6215 may signal further declines toward 0.6120 and lower.
Major Currencies: USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair remains in a bullish trend, driven by a strong U.S. dollar. Investors are closely watching U.S. economic indicators, as well as potential policy shifts by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Concerns over trade tariffs may add volatility to the yen. Support Levels: 149.51, 148.95, 148.58, 148.25 Resistance Levels: 151.32, 152.32 Forecast: The medium-term outlook favors continued upward movement toward 151.32. A break above this level could trigger further gains. Conversely, if the price falls below 149.51, a downward correction may occur. The BoJ's stance on interest rates and U.S. monetary policy will be key drivers.
Major Currencies: USD/JPY The Japanese yen has been under pressure as the Bank of Japan maintains a cautious stance on tightening policy. Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and potential tariffs add volatility to the yen. The pair has been moving within a bullish channel, with the next key resistance level at 151.32. Support Levels: 149.51, 148.95, 148.58, 148.25 Resistance Levels: 151.32, 152.32 Forecast: The bullish trend remains intact unless the price drops below 149.51. If resistance at 151.32 is breached, further gains towards 152.32 could be expected. Conversely, a break below 149.51 could trigger a correction.
Major Currencies: USD/JPY The U.S. dollar has remained strong against the Japanese yen, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its higher interest rate stance for an extended period. Meanwhile, Japanese authorities have not signaled intervention, allowing the yen to continue weakening.
Market participants are closely watching U.S. GDP data and comments from Fed officials, which may drive further volatility. While the yen has shown some recovery, the overall trend remains bullish for USD/JPY. Support Levels: 149.51, 148.95, 148.58, 148.25 Resistance Levels: 151.32, 152.32
A move above 151.32 could open the path for further gains, while a drop below 149.51 may suggest a potential reversal in trend.
United States: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report—the only major scheduled data release.
Tariff Policy: Market attention will be on President Trump's announcement regarding tariff adjustments, with potential market-moving implications.
Thursday, April 3, 2025
Global Trade: Markets react to the implementation of US tariffs and potential countermeasures from affected countries.
Switzerland: CPI inflation data release post-London open.
United States: Weekly Unemployment Claims, ISM Services PMI, and Final Services PMI reports expected to drive market sentiment.
Friday, April 4, 2025
United Kingdom: Construction PMI data, with limited market-moving potential.
United States: The focal point of the week—Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings data. The market reaction is expected to be heavily driven by the headline payroll number.
Canada: Employment data release, coinciding with US labor reports, though market movements will likely be dictated by US updates.
The yen is strengthening due to increased safe-haven demand and hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan.
Concerns about US tariffs are driving demand for the yen.
The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes are also supporting the yen.
Support Levels:
148.60, 148.25
Resistance Levels:
149.15, 149.55, 151.32
Forecast:
Short-term: The yen is likely to continue strengthening. Selling opportunities exist around the 149.15 and 149.55 resistance levels.
Medium-term: The yen's strength will depend on global risk sentiment and Bank of Japan policy. If safe-haven demand remains high and the BoJ raises rates, the yen could see further gains.
The trend is bullish, but a trend shift to bearish is possible.
Major Currencies: USD/JPY
The Japanese yen remains under pressure due to a mix of economic uncertainty and external factors, including U.S. tariff concerns. The recent drop in Japan’s unemployment rate did little to strengthen the yen, as business sentiment has weakened. The Federal Reserve’s policy stance and bond market movements will heavily influence USD/JPY. Key Levels:
Support: 149.55, 149.15, 148.60, 148.25
Resistance: 150.10, 151.02, 151.32, 152.32
Forecast:
The medium-term trend remains bullish, but a shift is possible if the price fails to hold above 149.55. If the price surpasses 150.10, further upside toward 151.02 is expected. Conversely, a breakdown below 148.60 could indicate a shift toward bearish momentum.
Major Currencies: USD/JPY
Market Overview: The Japanese yen is benefiting from a surge in risk-off sentiment, as escalating trade tensions (especially U.S. tariffs) spook global markets. The pair broke lower and shows signs of a sustained bearish trend. Forecast:
A break below 145.95 would likely drive the pair to 144.72, possibly lower if global tensions escalate.
Any upside correction may stall near 146.84 or 147.91, offering fresh selling opportunities.
Support Levels: 146.65, 146.00, 144.72 Resistance Levels: 148.41, 149.16, 150.27 Key Pivot Range: 145.95–146.84 Bias:Bearish while below 147.91, especially if market risk sentiment remains negative.
Major Currencies: USD/CAD
Market Overview:
The Canadian dollar has weakened following disappointing domestic job growth data, which suggests a cooling labor market. The broader risk-off sentiment and the plunge in oil prices (Canada being a major oil producer) are also contributing to the Loonie's decline. The potential negative impact of US tariffs on the Canadian economy is an additional concern.
Support Levels: 1.4181, 1.4104
Resistance Levels: 1.4309, 1.4386
Outlook:
USD/CAD is expected to continue trading with an upward bias, driven by the strength of the US dollar and global commodity weakness. A potential rebound in oil prices could provide some relief for the CAD, but risks from the global economic outlook remain high.
Major Currencies: NZD/USD
Market Overview:
Similar to the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar has also been significantly impacted by the risk-off sentiment and trade war concerns, given New Zealand's reliance on exports and its trade relationship with China. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to lower interest rates, adding further pressure on the currency.
General Forecast: Expect continued downward pressure on NZD/USD with potential for further declines.
Major Currencies: BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Fundamental Outlook:
Bitcoin remains rangebound, caught between bullish momentum from ETF flows and broader macro uncertainty. The CPI release could significantly influence near-term direction, as a weaker dollar typically supports crypto assets. Forecast:
Bullish move above $72,000 could open room toward $75,000
Bearish scenario could push prices back to $68,000 or even $65,500
Support Levels: 68,000, 65,500 Resistance Levels: 72,000, 75,000
Asia kicks off with a major data dump from China: GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales – all of which will be watched for signs of trade-related slowdown.
UK inflation data is released during the early London session.
U.S. Retail Sales data is the focal point during the New York morning session — a critical gauge of consumer health amid rising prices.
The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision and hosts a press conference. Expectations are split between a pause and another cut.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later in the session, along with remarks from Fed official Hammack.
Thursday - April 17
Asia opens with New Zealand’s latest inflation figures followed shortly by Australian employment data.
The European Central Bank takes center stage mid-morning with a key interest rate announcement. A rate cut is widely anticipated.
The U.S. session features weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed’s regional manufacturing update.
Friday - April 18
Good Friday holiday closures across major global markets.
Thin trading volumes expected with most financial centers shuttered.
Many markets will also remain closed through Easter Monday, setting up a prolonged weekend pause.
Major Currencies: USD/JPY OUTLOOK
Market Overview:
Gold remains supported near record highs, bolstered by economic uncertainty and expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025. Although recent U.S.-China trade news sparked temporary optimism, overall risk appetite remains fragile. Gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal continues to attract buyers amid policy and geopolitical noise. Technical Outlook:
Structure: Gold is trading within a bearish channel on the H4 chart but remains near historical highs, indicating a consolidation phase.
Bias: Cautiously bullish while above $3169, with short-term correction risks.
Key Levels:
Support: 3200, 3169, 3138, 3115, 3100
Resistance: 3225, 3245, 3281
Forecast:
A breakout above 3225 would likely accelerate bullish momentum toward the all-time high of 3245 and possibly 3281. If gold retreats below 3200, expect a correction to 3169 or even 3138. Only a break below 3100 would significantly damage the bullish structure.
Major Currencies: AUD/USD OUTLOOK
Summary:
The Australian dollar benefits from U.S. dollar weakness and optimism surrounding China's stable growth outlook. However, the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions add an element of caution for AUD bulls. Forecast:
AUD/USD is in a short-term bullish wave but faces resistance between 0.6410 and 0.6460.
A failure to break above 0.6460 could lead to a pullback toward support between 0.6348 and 0.6303.
A cautious buy bias remains intact while above 0.6348, but selling opportunities could arise if reversal signals appear near the resistance zone.
Key Levels:
Support: 0.6348, 0.6303, then 0.6230–0.6280 range
Major Currencies: USD/JPY OUTLOOK
The yen has been sliding, currently hovering around 142.00 against the dollar. A surge in the dollar followed after market sentiment improved on fading concerns about the Federal Reserve's leadership stability and trade tensions with China. President Trump's reassurance on not replacing Fed Chair Powell temporarily boosted investor confidence.
Meanwhile, Japan’s services sector showed strong growth in April, aiding domestic confidence. But this hasn't been enough to counterbalance the yen's weakness tied to global sentiment and rising US yields.
Key Levels:
Support: 141.02, 140.18, 139.59
Resistance: 143.08, 144.09
:compass: Forecast: Range-bound to slightly bullish in the short term. However, bearish pressure could resume if risk aversion returns or US data disappoints. Watch for a break above 143.08 for continuation higher.
Major Currencies: GOLD (XAU/USD) OUTLOOK
Macro & Sentiment Overview
Gold remains a beneficiary of the current global uncertainty, climbing steadily amid U.S.-China tariff tensions, strong CHF and JPY demand, and rising investor concerns over central bank policy missteps. While U.S. data remains key for day-to-day price movement, gold is supported structurally by long-term inflation and risk-hedging demand.
ETF inflows and retail investor participation further contribute to upward momentum, although the metal may pause if U.S. yields rise sharply or the dollar strengthens aggressively. Support & Resistance Levels
Support: 2322, 2295, 2260
Resistance: 2375, 2400, 2433
Forecast
Gold may remain elevated, but immediate upside is limited by profit-taking and strong dollar momentum. That said, dips are likely to be bought. Outlook: Favor buying on dips above 2295, with upside targets at 2375 and 2400. Below 2295, watch for support at 2260.
