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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 5, 2025



Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Outlook:
  • Key Factors Affecting the Pair
    • USD/CHF has been in a compressed range since August, awaiting breakout.
    • SNB cut cycle may be pausing after signs of stabilization in Swiss PMIs, though inflation softened (-0.1% m/m).
    • Market speculates SNB could revert to negative rates if inflation weakness persists, but currency strength remains a concern.
    • Yield spreads between US and Swiss bonds narrowing, limiting USD appeal against CHF.
  • Support Levels: 0.8035, 0.8026, 0.7990, 0.7920
  • Resistance Levels: 0.8045, 0.8054, 0.8064, 0.8100
  • Forecast: Risk of bearish breakdown below 0.7990 unless US jobs data surprises to the upside.






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Weekly Economic Calendar


September 8 - September 12, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Mon Sep 8
  • Japan Q2 GDP (final / revised Q2 growth).
  • China August trade data (exports, imports, trade balance).
  • US Consumer Credit (G.19).
Tue Sep 9
  • US NFIB Small Business Optimism (monthly).
Wed Sep 10
  • US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August.
Thu Sep 11
  • US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August (headline & core).
  • ECB interest-rate decision / press conference (watch Lagarde's tone).
Fri Sep 12
  • University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Sentiment (Sept).
  • BLS, Real earnings / follow-ups tied to CPI releases.







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 9, 2025



Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Outlook:
  • USD/CHF pressured after weak NFP; recovery attempts capped.
  • Fed easing expectations limit dollar upside, while safe-haven flows reduced.
  • Market eyes US CPI and PPI later this week for direction.
  • Support: 0.7950 / 0.7930 / 0.7880
  • Resistance: 0.8000 / 0.8170 / 0.8220







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 10, 2025



Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Outlook:
  • Aussie supported by stronger GDP, improved business conditions.
  • Consumer confidence weak, but RBA seen holding rates this month.
  • Break above 0.6628/0.6632 improves bullish outlook.
  • Support: 0.6579, 0.6559
  • Resistance: 0.6612, 0.6632, 0.6650






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 11, 2025



Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Outlook:
  • Aussie supported by strong GDP and improving China core CPI.
  • Market eyes inflation expectations and RBA outlook.
  • Bias: Bullish above 0.6580, momentum building toward 0.6660.
  • Support: 0.6570, 0.6555
  • Resistance: 0.6635, 0.6660





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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 12, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:
  • Supported by rate cut expectations and falling US PPI.
  • Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East, tariffs) boost safe-haven demand.
  • Dollar’s rebound attempts capped by Fed policy outlook.
  • Forecast: Gold remains bullish with risks of pullback if US inflation surprises higher.







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Weekly Economic Calendar


September 15 - September 19, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
  • Mon Sep 15 China: Industrial production & retail sales releases; US: regional manufacturing (Empire) survey.
  • Tue Sep 16US: Monthly retail sales (watch for market reaction); Fed two-day meeting begins.
  • Wed Sep 17 FOMC decision / Fed press conference; Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
  • Thu Sep 18 Bank of England interest rate decision and Monetary Policy minutes/publication.
  • Fri Sep 19 Bank of Japan policy decision (meeting ends this day); end-of-week retail/flash data may also move markets.







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 5, 2025



Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Outlook:
  • Swiss franc strengthened alongside safe-haven demand amid Fed uncertainty.
  • SNB cautious but holding policy steady; inflation risks remain manageable.
  • USD weakness post-Fed could drive further CHF gains.
  • Support: 0.8880, 0.8845
  • Resistance: 0.8950, 0.9000






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 19, 2025



New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) Outlook:
  • Kiwi slumped after weak GDP (-0.9%) and expectations of RBNZ cuts.
  • Dollar rebound post-Fed cut intensified losses; volatility likely to persist.
  • Support: 0.5915, 0.5872, 0.5833, 0.5800
  • Resistance: 0.5957, 0.6031
  • Outlook: Bearish bias; further downside if RBNZ signals deeper cuts.





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Weekly Economic Calendar


September 22 - September 26, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Mon 22 Sep 2025
  • People's Bank of China interest rate/monetary announcement
Tue 23 Sep 2025
  • Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs for major economies (EUR, UK, US, Germany)
  • Japan: public holiday / market light
Wed 24 Sep 2025
  • German ifo Business Climate release
  • US New Home Sales and weekly Crude Oil Inventories
Thu 25 Sep 2025
  • Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
  • US final Q2 GDP (annualized) and GDP price index
  • US unemployment claims
Fri 26 Sep 2025
  • US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price indexes (headline & core)
  • Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 23, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:
  • Gold near record highs, supported by Fed rate cuts, safe-haven demand, and central bank buying.
  • Risk of correction if sellers defend 3700 resistance.
  • Support: 3672, 3637, 3615, 3600
  • Resistance: 3700, 3730, 3750
  • Outlook: Bullish toward new highs, but corrective pullback likely from resistance.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 25, 2025



Silver (XAG/USD) Outlook:
  • Silver rallies to multi-year highs, supported by dovish Fed outlook and strong demand.
  • Key support: 43.595, 43.205
  • Key resistance: 44.395, 44.805
  • Forecast: Uptrend likely to extend if above 44.005; risk of pullback if below 43.205.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 26, 2025



Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Outlook:
  • SNB kept rates at 0%, cautious outlook amid weak inflation and tariffs.
  • Strong US GDP supported pair; franc slipped.
  • Support: 0.7939, 0.7920
  • Resistance: 0.7971, 0.7990, 0.8022
  • Outlook: Bullish bias above 0.7971, risk of drop if below 0.7939.







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Weekly Economic Calendar


September 29 - October 3, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
  • Mon Sep 29
    • Spain — CPI (monthly & y/y) — early European session.
    • US — Pending Home Sales / housing updates (light U.S. housing data).
  • Tue Sep 30
    • US — JOLTS (Job Openings) — labor market gauge (mid-morning ET).
  • Wed Oct 1
    • US — ISM Manufacturing PMI (monthly manufacturing activity — first business day release).
  • Thu Oct 2
    • US — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly claims, morning ET).
  • Fri Oct 3
    • US — Employment Situation / Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment rate (big market mover; 8:30 AM E







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 30, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:
  • Key Factors:
    • Record highs driven by weak dollar, Fed policy uncertainty, and central bank demand.
    • Political risks in Washington and global uncertainty boosting safe-haven demand.

  • Support: 3775, 3720
  • Resistance: 3812, 3850, 3900
  • Outlook: Strong bullish momentum; dips remain buying opportunities.








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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 1, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:
  • Gold hit fresh record highs on safe-haven demand.
  • Fed easing expectations and U.S. shutdown fears support bullish trend.
  • Resistance breakouts may extend rally further.
  • Support: 3800, 3760, 3718
  • Resistance: 3850, 3900, 3954








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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 2, 2025



Gold (AUD/USD) Outlook:
  • Key factors: Near record highs as safe-haven demand rises; U.S. shutdown fears boost buying; Fed expected to cut rates; high volatility within 3800–3870 range.
  • Support: 3800, 3760, 3718
  • Resistance: 3870, 3900
  • Forecast: Bullish bias; upside breakout above 3870 targets 3900, risk of correction if support fails.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 3, 2025



Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Outlook:
  • Franc stable; Swiss inflation steady, SNB cautious on rate moves.
  • Weak US jobs data and Fed cut bets cap USD upside.
  • Support: 0.7958, 0.7940, 0.7900
  • Resistance: 0.7975, 0.8000
  • Forecast: Neutral to bearish bias for USD; downside risk if Fed signals easing.







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Weekly Economic Calendar


October 6 - October 10, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
  • Mon Oct 6: Eurozone — retail sales & industrial production; Sentix investor confidence; Australia inflation gauge / regional data to watch in Asia.
  • Tue Oct 7: Eurozone — factory orders, trade data and other euro area monthly prints; ongoing regional data releases and Fed officials’ comments possible.
  • Wed Oct 8: FOMC minutes (major USD mover); Eurozone — industrial production and trade updates.
  • Thu Oct 9: Eurozone CPI / harmonised CPI (key euro mover) plus trade and wider euro area releases.
  • Fri Oct 10: Eurozone — trade balance, multiple industrial-production prints and CPI summary items across the region. End-of-week euro area data wrap.






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