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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 7, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Gold reached record highs above $3,900 amid the U.S. shutdown and rising safe-haven demand.
• Investor flows into gold-backed funds strengthen the uptrend, with central banks also increasing purchases.
• The weakening dollar and potential Fed rate cuts continue to fuel bullish sentiment.
• Support: 3,850, 3,820, 3,780
• Resistance: 3,932, 3,970, 4,000
• Forecast: Bullish trend intact; potential consolidation before another push beyond the $4,000 mark.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 9, 2025



Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Outlook:

• Fundamental context:
  • USD regains strength, breaking above 0.8000 for the first time since September.
  • Swiss inflation remains near zero, reviving deflation risks.
  • SNB’s passive stance leaves CHF vulnerable to further weakness.
• Market outlook:
  • Bullish bias supported by USD carry advantage and flight to liquidity.
  • Market watching whether 0.8000 can hold as a new support base.
• Key levels:
  • Support: 0.7993, 0.7946
  • Resistance: 0.8057
• Forecast:
  • Upside potential toward 0.8060, while holding above 0.8000 signals continued strength.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 10, 2025



Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Outlook:

• The yen continued to weaken following the election of a new pro-stimulus Prime Minister, supporting expectations of loose policy.
• Fed caution on inflation further widened yield differentials, favoring USD gains.
• Support levels: 152.60, 151.31
• Resistance level: 154.80
• Forecast: Bullish momentum likely to continue toward 154.80 unless price falls below 152.60; broader uptrend intact.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


October 13 - October 17, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Monday, Oct 13

• Thin trading volumes; US bond market holiday (Columbus/Indigenous Peoples’ Day); no major US releases.

Tuesday, Oct 14

• RBA meeting minutes; German final HICP; UK labour market updates; Fed Chair appearance at NABE (Powell).

Wednesday, Oct 15

• China CPI/PPI and other China data; watch regional PMIs and EM indicators; US headline data may be impacted by shutdown.

Thursday, Oct 16

• Australian labour/statistics day; US PPI and retail sales flagged as key potential movers (check for any rescheduling).

Friday, Oct 17

• Generally lighter macro slate; central-bank speakers and market reaction to midweek releases may still drive FX moves.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 14, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Gold surged to new highs as investors fled risk amid trade tensions and expectations of Fed easing.
• Demand driven by central bank buying and global uncertainty continues to support bullish momentum.
  Support: 4,020 / 3,985 / 3,960
  Resistance: 4,060 / 4,090 / 4,120
  Outlook: Strongly bullish; safe-haven demand likely to sustain momentum.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 15, 2025



Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Outlook:

• Market Context: The yen weakened as political instability in Japan and steady U.S. demand supported the dollar.
• Outlook: Market eyes Powell’s comments for rate guidance. Any dovish hints could pull USD/JPY lower from overbought territory.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 151.18, 149.95
  • Resistance: 152.50, 153.28, 154.80
• Forecast: Potential correction toward 151.20 if resistance at 152.50 holds; otherwise, continuation toward 153.20.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 15, 2025



Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Outlook:

• Overview: The yen strengthened slightly amid political uncertainty in Japan and dovish Fed expectations.
• Drivers: Political instability in Japan and global risk aversion supported safe-haven flows into the yen.
• Outlook: A sustained move below 151.18 could trigger deeper correction; otherwise, bullish trend intact above 151.50.
• Support: 151.18, 149.95
• Resistance: 152.50, 153.28

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Market Analysis and Forecasts



October 17, 2025



Silver (XAG/USD) Outlook:

• Silver consolidated near record highs amid strong demand and global physical shortages.
• Industrial use (solar, EVs) and monetary hedge appeal continue driving structural demand.
• Support: 51.84, 50.59, 50.28
• Resistance: 53.62, 55.00
• Forecast: Bullish bias; potential retest of 53.62–55.00 range before correction to 51.80.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


October 20 - October 24, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Mon 20 Oct

• NZ — CPI (Q3) (high impact)
• CN — PBoC Loan Prime Rate decision; Q3 GDP; Industrial Production; Fixed-asset investment (Q3)
• SG — Diwali (market holiday / local closures)

Tue 21 Oct

• JP — S&P Global (flash) Manufacturing & Services PMI (flash)
• GB — Public sector borrowing, Rightmove house price update; BoE speakers/auctions (low/moderate impact items)
• US — Fed speaks (scheduled remarks)

Wed 22 Oct

• GB — CPI & Core CPI (Sep) (high impact for GBP)
• US — Fed speaker(s), regular weekly data (various)
• EUR/USD — ECB speakers possible (market noise)

Thu 23 Oct

• US — EIA / Natural Gas storage and energy inventory releases (supply data)
• CAD — BoC Business Outlook Survey / auctions (calendar items)
• US/EU speakers & smaller data releases (watch for flow)

Fri 24 Oct

• US — Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Sep) + Core CPI (major market mover)
• Global — S&P Global flash PMIs (manufacturing & services) — global market reaction likely after release

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 21, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

1. Gold’s momentum remains positive despite brief profit-taking after easing trade tensions.
2. Safe-haven demand persists amid U.S. fiscal concerns and geopolitical instability.
3. Short-term correction possible before another push higher.
4. Support: 4167 / 4090 / 4050
5. Resistance: 4278 / 4380 / 4400
6. Forecast: Likely to test support before resuming upward trajectory toward 4380–4400.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 22, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Gold surged to new highs, supported by global uncertainty, U.S. government shutdown concerns, and expectations of Fed rate cuts.
• Rising geopolitical tensions and steady central bank purchases add to bullish momentum.
• Profit-taking could trigger minor pullbacks, but overall sentiment stays positive.
• Support: 4278, 4167, 4090
• Resistance: 4380, 4400, 4500
• Forecast: Strongly bullish; safe-haven demand and dovish Fed outlook underpin further upside.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 23, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Sharp profit-taking led to the steepest drop in over a decade.
• Despite correction, long-term trend stays bullish as central banks diversify reserves.
• Holding above 4050 could invite recovery; a fall below 3946 risks deeper retracement.
• Support: 4090, 4050, 4000, 3946
• Resistance: 4162, 4184, 4270, 4379

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 24, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Gold plunged sharply after parabolic gains, triggered by improving U.S.–China trade sentiment and a stronger dollar.
• The metal may enter a consolidation phase near $4,000 before resuming its broader uptrend.
• Support: 4050, 4000, 3946
• Resistance: 4102, 4162, 4184
• Forecast: Bearish bias intraday below 4100; potential rebound if price stabilizes above 4160.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


October 27 - October 31, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Monday – October 27

• US Durable Goods Orders (monthly)
• US New Home Sales (monthly)
• US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index

Tuesday – October 28

• US Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)
• FOMC Meeting – Day 1

Wednesday – October 29

• Bank of Canada Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report
• FOMC Policy Decision & Statement
• Fed Chair Press Conference

Thursday – October 30

• US Advance Q3 GDP Report
• European Central Bank Meeting & Press Conference

Friday – October 31

• US Personal Income & Outlays (includes PCE Price Index)
• Additional US housing and consumer indicators

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 28, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Gold eased as U.S.–China trade optimism reduced safe-haven demand.
• Expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to limit downside risks.
• Geopolitical tensions and inflation fears remain key long-term bullish factors.
• Medium-term trend bullish, though short-term consolidation persists.
• Support: 4065, 4000, 3946
• Resistance: 4162, 4184, 4270, 4379
• Outlook: Holding above 4065 keeps bias positive toward 4180–4200; below 4000 risks deeper pullback.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 29, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Gold remains under pressure from easing U.S.-China tensions and firm risk appetite.
• Fed rate-cut expectations offer partial support but optimism on trade caps upside.
• Safe-haven appeal persists amid geopolitical tensions involving Russia.
• Support: 3946
• Resistance: 4013, 4052, 4162, 4184
• Forecast: Neutral-to-bearish below 4000; rebound possible if Fed signals deeper cuts.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 17, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Gold rebounds after testing below the $4000 mark, driven by safe-haven demand ahead of the Fed decision.
• A dovish Fed could reignite buying interest; geopolitical risks and U.S.–China talks add uncertainty.
• Support: 3896, 3867
• Resistance: 3976, 4013, 4052, 4162
• Outlook: Neutral to mildly bullish; recovery possible toward 4010–4050 if Fed signals easing bias.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 31, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Gold eased as higher US yields and improved risk sentiment limited safe-haven demand.
• Price action remains capped below $4000, awaiting a strong catalyst for breakout.
• A move below key support could trigger further downside pressure.
• Support: 3896, 3867
• Resistance: 3976, 4013, 4052, 4162
• Outlook: Bearish bias; recovery possible only above $4020.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


November 3 - 7, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Monday, November 3

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (final) and ISM Manufacturing Survey
• U.S. Manufacturing New Orders and Prices Sub-Indexes

Tuesday, November 4

• Various regional PMI releases and trade/industrial data from Europe and Asia
• Market participants to monitor any shifts in global manufacturing momentum

Wednesday, November 5

• U.S. ADP Employment Change report
• U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI and New Orders Index
• U.S. EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, November 6

• U.S. Preliminary Q3 Labor Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
• Data could influence expectations for inflation and wage growth

Friday, November 7

• U.S. Consumer Credit Report
• Insights into household borrowing trends and consumer spending strength

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 4, 2025



Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook:

• Gold corrects near $4,000 amid easing geopolitical tensions and stable Fed policy expectations.
• Long-term sentiment remains bullish due to central bank demand and global uncertainty.
• In the short term, lower safe-haven demand keeps pressure on prices.
• Outlook: Bearish to neutral in short-term; bullish longer-term above $4,000.
• Support: 3,930, 3,896, 3,867
• Resistance: 4,050, 4,137, 4,162

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