Euro remains supported by expectations of an ECB hike and stronger Q2 growth, although weak domestic demand limits the upside. Thursday's ECB decision and Friday's U.S. inflation data are the major catalysts.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1584, 1.1564, 1.1519
Resistance: 1.1622, 1.1637, 1.1659
Recommendation: Prefer buying dips around 1.1608; 1.1584 if the area holds, targeting 1.1622 then 1.1637. A decisive break below 1.1584 would favor shorts toward 1.1564.
Bias: Neutral to mildly bullish, but the pair remains sensitive to dollar strength ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow.
Eurozone growth has been stronger than previously estimated, while expectations for another ECB rate increase provide underlying support. Still, stronger U.S. yields or inflation expectations could limit gains.
The euro is holding around the 1.16 area, with recent trading showing buyers defending lower levels but struggling to establish a sustained move above 1.1637.
Support: 1.1622, 1.1608, 1.1584, 1.1564, 1.1519
Resistance: 1.1637, 1.1659
Forecast: Holding above 1.1608 keeps room for another attempt toward 1.1637–1.1659. A break below 1.1584 would weaken the near-term picture considerably.
Key focus: ECB decision and guidance, U.S. inflation expectations, and overall dollar demand.
The euro remains resilient near 1.16, but the ECB decision is the immediate catalyst. A widely expected rate increase could support EUR/USD if policymakers signal further tightening, while weak French production and the energy shock limit upside.
The dollar has regained slight ground as oil remains above $100 and U.S. yields rise, but upcoming inflation data keeps traders cautious. A softer U.S. inflation picture would help the euro.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1584, 1.1564, 1.1519
Resistance: 1.1637, 1.1659
Forecast: Neutral to mildly bullish above 1.1608; a break above 1.1637 would strengthen the upside case.
Outlook: Neutral to mildly bullish, but the euro faces stronger dollar pressure after the ECB's widely expected rate increase failed to create a lasting upside reaction. Persistent energy inflation keeps the ECB cautious, while firmer U.S. inflation expectations support the dollar. Today's U.S. CPI is the key catalyst; softer inflation could revive euro demand, while a hot reading may push EUR/USD lower.
Support: 1.1623, 1.1608, 1.1584, 1.1564, 1.1519
Resistance: 1.1641, 1.1659
Forecast: Holding above 1.1623 keeps recovery potential alive, but a break below 1.1608 would expose deeper support. A sustained move above 1.1659 would improve the broader upside picture.
CAD: CPI and core inflation measures; Manufacturing Sales
AUD: RBA Assistant Governor Hunter speaks
GBP: CB Leading Index
Tuesday, September 15
CNY: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, New Home Prices and Unemployment
JPY: Tertiary Industry Activity
GBP: Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate
EUR: German WPI, French CPI, Eurozone Trade Balance and German ZEW Sentiment
USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index and weekly employment data
CAD: Wholesale Sales
NZD: Current Account and GDT Price Index
Wednesday, September 16
JPY: Machinery Orders and Trade Balance
GBP: CPI, Core CPI, PPI and RPI
EUR: Eurozone Industrial Production
CAD: Housing Starts and Building Permits
USD: Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Import Prices, Business Inventories and Housing Market Index
USD:Federal Reserve rate decision, economic projections and policy statement, followed by the press conference
NZD: GDP
Thursday, September 17
EUR: Final CPI and Core CPI
GBP:Bank of England rate decision, MPC vote and monetary policy statement
USD: Unemployment Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, Building Permits, Housing Starts and Pending Home Sales
CAD: Foreign Securities Purchases, Industrial Product Prices and Raw Materials Prices
NZD: Trade Balance and Food Price Index
AUD: Leading Index
CHF: SECO Economic Forecasts
Friday, September 18
JPY:Bank of Japan rate decision, policy statement and press conference; National Core CPI
GBP: Retail Sales and GfK Consumer Confidence
EUR: German PPI and Eurozone Current Account; Lagarde speaks
USD: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Leading Economic Indicators
USD: Fed officials Bowman and Schmid speak
AUD: RBA Governor Bullock speaks
Main market focus: The week is heavily centered on Fed, BoE and BoJ decisions, with UK inflation, U.S. retail sales, Japanese inflation and several housing and employment releases likely to create additional volatility.
Market view: EUR/USD remains under pressure after slipping toward the 1.1564 area. The dollar has gained momentum from rising oil prices, geopolitical tension and strong expectations of a Fed hike this week. At the same time, the ECB's recent tightening provides some underlying support for the euro, preventing a deeper one-way decline.
Fundamental picture: U.S. inflation and energy-price pressure keep the Fed focused on tightening, while European inflation and German sentiment remain important for the euro. The contrast currently favors the dollar.
Support:1.1564, followed by 1.1519. A sustained break below 1.1519 would expose the lower part of the recent range.
Forecast: The near-term bias remains bearish to neutral. A recovery above 1.1587 could encourage a broader rebound toward 1.1616;1.1637, but failure there would keep sellers in control. The Fed decision is likely to determine whether the pair breaks lower or finally stages a stronger recovery.
Current Structure: EUR/USD is under renewed pressure after slipping toward the 1.15 area, with the dollar benefiting from rising US yields and positioning ahead of today's Fed decision. Germany's ZEW data showed a better assessment of current conditions, but euro-area expectations remain cautious.
Factors Affecting the Pair: The Fed decision, US retail sales and import prices are the immediate catalysts. The ECB;s recent tightening provides some underlying support, but expensive energy and weaker parts of the euro-area economy limit enthusiasm for the euro.
Forecast: The near-term structure remains pressured while price stays below 1.1564. A sustained break under 1.1524 would expose 1.1502 and potentially 1.1496. Holding that zone could encourage a rebound toward 1.1564;1.1587, particularly if the Fed delivers a less forceful message.
