2023 Market Forecast by SolidECN

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U.S. Dollar Leads in Today's Market Against GBP​

Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar is leading in today's trading against the pound sterling, with the GBPUSD pair trading around 1.263. The Ichimoku cloud supports this price area. From a technical standpoint, for the downtrend to continue, bears must stabilize the price below this level. Although technical indicators support a bearish scenario, there is still a chance for the bulls to take control, especially if the 1.2611 level holds firm.

In conclusion, the price must fall below the cloud for the bear market to extend further. Otherwise, we will likely witness the GBPUSD pair rise again, aiming for the 1.2709 resistance level.​

 

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USDJPY Bullish Trend: Key Resistance and Potential Invalidations​

Solid ECN – As expected, the USDJPY price rose from the 150.0 mark, maintaining a bullish trend due to this support from the Ichimoku cloud and the bullish channel. For the pair to continue its growth, the bulls must break above the 150.88 resistance.

Conversely, the bull market could be invalidated if the price dips below the cloud, specifically below the 150.0 mark.​

 

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GBPJPY Navigates Bullish Patterns Amid Mixed Signals​

Solid ECN – The GBPJPY currency pair recently declined from the upper line of its bullish wedge pattern at the 191.0 mark. Subsequently, the pair tested the lower band and bounced back from 190.2, and it currently trades around 190.6.

The primary trend remains bullish, but the technical indicators provide mixed signals. On one hand, the RSI indicator suggests continuing the bull market. On the other hand, the Awesome Oscillator bars have turned red and are approaching the signal line, indicating potential caution. Based on the primary GBPJPY trend, we can predict that the uptick momentum will likely resume if the pair maintains its position within the wedge's boundaries.

Even if the price dips below the 190.2 level, considered a resistance point, the Ichimoku cloud emerges as the next significant barrier for the sellers.

From a technical standpoint, as long as the price remains above the cloud, our technical analysis remains unchanged. This situation suggests a potential for continued bullish behavior, securing any significant market shifts.​

 

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Offshore Yuan Hits Week Low Amid China's Economic Strain​

Solid ECN – The offshore yuan has dropped to its lowest level in a week, nearing 7.22 against the dollar, due to ongoing deflationary pressures, economic growth hurdles, and issues in the property market in China, affecting investor mood. There's also a wary eye on Beijing, as further policy relaxation is expected to prop up the economy.

Last week, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) significantly reduced its five-year loan prime rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 3.95%, a more significant cut than the anticipated 15 basis points. This reduction, the sharpest since the rate's 2019 inception, aims to stimulate growth. Yet, the PBOC kept the one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.45%. Earlier in the month, the PBOC also cut the reserve requirements for banks by 50 basis points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term funds.​

 

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Anticipated Rise of Pound Sterling: A Clear Signal from Technical Indicators​

Solid ECN – As anticipated, the pound sterling has once again risen from the support zone of the Ichimoku cloud, the 1.2621 mark. Today, the technical indicators are providing a clearer signal. With the RSI flipping above the median line and the appearance of green bars on the awesome oscillator, we can forecast that the bull market will likely expand further.

The first significant milestone for the bulls is reaching the February high of 1.2709. Interestingly, this resistance level is reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, adding to its significance.

However, it's important to note that if the GBPUSD price falls below the cloud, the validity of the bull market could be called into question. This is a crucial point to remember as we monitor market trends.​

 

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AUDUSD Analysis: Breaking Bullish Trends and Testing Fibo Level​

Solid ECN – The U.S. dollar broke below the ascending bullish channel in yesterday's trading session against the Australian dollar. Interestingly, the pair tested the broken support, which now acts as resistance, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci level or the 0.6521 mark.

The technical indicators give mixed signals: the RSI is bearish, while the Awesome Oscillator signals a bull market.

Based on the price action, the 50% Fibonacci level plays as resistance, and it is expected for the downtrend to extend to the 78.6% Fibonacci support, followed by the February low at 0.6442.

The bearish outlook for the AUD/USD pair should be invalidated if the price stabilizes itself above the 50% Fibonacci level.​

 

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Gold Price Analysis: Potential Bullish Breakout​

Solid ECN – The yellow metal is testing the $2,037 mark. What distinguishes this resistance area is its conjunction with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the descending trendline, depicted in blue.

Upon examining the price action, we observe that the divergence in the awesome oscillator couldn't instigate a shift in the market. Consequently, the Gold price remained above the 50% Fibonacci level and the Ichimoku cloud. With the RSI indicator hovering above the 50 lines, it is plausible for the price to make a bullish breakout and ascend to the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance, corresponding to the $2,048 mark.

On the other hand, if the XAU/USD price dips and stabilizes below the 50% Fibonacci support, the bullish analysis will be invalidated. In such a scenario, the price might experience a further decline to the 38.2% level.​

 

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USDJPY Experiences Significant Downward Momentum​

The USDJPY is experiencing significant downward momentum in today’s trading session. The pair has crossed below the Ichimoku cloud and is trading around 149.2 at the time of writing. Interestingly, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold area below 30. Therefore, considering the primary trend is bullish, the price might test the previously broken support, the Ichimoku cloud.

From a technical standpoint, the data from the USDJPY 4-hour chart indicates that the uptrend will be on pause for a while, and the decline will likely extend to the 23.6% Fibonacci support, corresponding to the 148.3 mark.

On the flip side, bulls must push the price above the Ichimoku cloud again for the uptrend to continue.​

 

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USDCNH Finds Support: Navigating Fibonacci Levels​

Solid ECN – The USDCNH pair has rebounded from the strong 7.2 resistance level. Interestingly, the Ichimoku cloud further reinforces this resistance zone. The pound sterling appears to be establishing stability above the 50% Fibonacci support level against the Japanese yen.

Additionally, the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, while the RSI suggests a continuation of the uptrend.

From a technical standpoint, the market maintains a bullish outlook as long as the price stays within the trading channel. The initial target could be set at the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.

Conversely, the bullish sentiment should be reconsidered if the USDCNH falls below the Ichimoku cloud or the 50% Fibonacci level.​

 

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EURUSD Analysis: A Close Look at Key Fibonacci Levels​

Solid ECN – The EURUSD is trading around 1.0856, slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Interestingly, the bulls have managed to break above the bearish channel. However, Euro buyers must overcome the 1.0865 barrier for the uptrend to continue. The technical indicators support a bullish market, with the RSI hovering above 50 and the Awesome Oscillator bars turning green and rising above the signal line.

From a technical standpoint, the bulls will likely target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level if they can stabilize the price above 1.0865.

Conversely, if the EURUSD price falls below the 1.0796 mark, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci support, the decline that began in December 2023 will likely resume.​

 

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Bullish Outlook: GBP USD's Potential to Overcome Resistance​

Solid ECN – The pound sterling is stabilizing at around 1.267 against the U.S. dollar, above the 50 EMA but slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance. The GBPUSD daily chart shows that the pair has been trading sideways since mid-November 2023.

While the technical indicators don't provide anything significant, from a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish. As long as the pair trades above the ascending trendline, depicted in blue, we expect the market to surpass the 1.270 barrier and aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance.

Conversely, the bearish channel will remain valid if the price falls below the ascending trendline. In this scenario, the next target for the sellers would be the 38.2% Fibonacci level.​

 

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AUDUSD Experiences Pullback from Fibonacci Level​

The Australian dollar has crossed below the 0.648 resistance level against the U.S. Dollar. The pair bounced from the 78.6% Fibonacci support level and is trading at approximately 0.648 at the time of writing. Upon examining the AUDUSD 4-hour chart, we notice that the price is declining within the bearish channel. The technical indicators support the primary trend, with the RSI hovering below 50, and the Awesome Oscillator bars are red and below the signal line.

Currently, the pair is experiencing a pullback from the aforementioned Fibonacci level, which may extend to the 61.8% resistance level, followed by the upper band of the flag.

From a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD is in a bear market, and the downtrend will likely continue. The next target could be 0.6442, the lower low of February.

Conversely, the bear market should be considered invalid if the AUDUSD price rises above 0.6524, above the 50% Fibonacci resistance level.​

 

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U.S. Oil Technical Analysis​

The U.S. oil price hovers around $78 in today's trading session. The black gold experienced a dip on March 1st after climbing as high as $80 per barrel. The Ichimoku cloud and the ascending trendline have prevented further declines, yet the bear market has not pushed the price down to as low as $77.7.

Technical indicators match the recent price decrease. The RSI indicator and the Awesome Oscillator have dipped below the signal line. From a technical standpoint, the bearish pressure may increase if the price falls below the ascending trendline, depicted in blue.

Conversely, given the primary bullish trend, if the ascending trendline holds steady, the oil price could see a new bullish wave aiming for March's highs, followed by the $82 mark.​

 

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Bullish USDJPY Awaits Breakout from Flag Pattern​

Solid ECN – The USDJPY pair is consolidating in a narrow area between the 149.5 support and 150.8 resistance. The RSI indicator shows divergence, which could be interpreted as a possible trend reversal. However, the decline halted, and the bears could not close below the 149.5 support. Consequently, the price stepped back into the range area.

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish as long as the pair trades inside the bullish flag and above the 23.6% Fibonacci support. For the uptrend to continue, the price should stabilize itself above 150.8. In this scenario, the pair will likely target the upper band of the flag.

Going short on USDJPY is not recommended, considering the robust bullish bias on the trend direction. Therefore, waiting for a buying opportunity is less risky than going short.​

 

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EURUSD Bulls Eyeing 1.0865 Resistance for Continued Uptrend​

The EURUSD currency pair is stabilizing itself outside the previously broken bearish channel. Currently, the pair trades slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level, around 1.086. For the uptrend to continue, the bulls must overcome the 1.0865 barrier. This resistance level has been holding the Euro from further growth against the U.S. Dollar since February 22.

Conversely, if the EURUSD price falls below the 50 EMA, the decline would likely target the 1.0796 support level, the 23.6% Fibonacci mark. If this scenario plays out, the sellers will find themselves in the bearish flag again, and the push will likely go deeper, aiming for the February low.​

 

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RSI Indicator Predicts GBPUSD Bullish Trend Continuation​

Solid ECN – The GBPUSD currency pair has climbed above 1.2709, exceeding the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. RSI and Awesome Oscillator support this rise, which suggests continuing the trend. The RSI has room to reach the 70 level, which can be interpreted as the market not being overbought yet. This indicates that the pound sterling will likely target the bullish channel's upper band against the U.S. dollar.

Please note that the bull market will remain valid if the pair trades above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.​

 

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AUDUSD Momentum: Indicators Point Towards Continued Uptrend​

The Awesome Oscillator shows optimistic signs of a trend reversal, having flipped above the signal line. Additionally, the RSI hovers above 50, another cue for continuing the uptick momentum from 0.6476. This minor area supports the bullish momentum. It is worth noting that for further growth, the price needs to stay above this level. In this scenario, the bull market will likely aim for the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level.

Conversely, the bullish outlook should be invalidated if the AUDUSD price dips below 0.6511.​

 

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EURUSD Strategy: Bullish Channel and Fibonacci Support Insights​

Solid ECN—The EURUSD currency pair started the week slightly below Friday's closing price. At the time of writing, it is trading at about 1.094.

While the technical indicators provide mixed signals, the pair remains within the bullish channel and tested the 50% Fibonacci support on Friday. The primary trend is bullish, supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci level. As the trend suggests a bullish market, we recommend going long. If the price consolidates near the EMA 50, this could provide an excellent opportunity to join the bull market.

Conversely, the bullish outlook should be invalidated if the EURUSD price drops below 38.2%.​

 

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AUDUSD Analysis: Signs of Bullish Resurgence​

Solid ECN — The AUDUSD formed a long-wick candlestick pattern during Friday's trading session. As of this writing, the price tested the 38.2% Fibonacci support and is trading at about 0.661. Interestingly, the Awesome Oscillator has flipped above the signal line on the daily chart, which can be interpreted as a sign that the bull market may resume.

From a technical standpoint, the 0.6594 level supports the bull market. As long as the price remains above it, the next bullish target could be the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at the 0.6703 mark.

Conversely, if the price dips below the 38.2% level, the decline could extend to the EMA 50, followed by the 23.6% level.​

 

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NZDUSD Outlook: Technical Indicators Suggest Ongoing Bullish Trend​

Solid ECN – The NZDUSD currency pair formed a long-wick candlestick pattern in Friday's trading session, which suggests a possible trend reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. The technical indicators still signal a bull market; as we know, all technical indicators are inherently lagging.

From a technical standpoint, if the price stabilizes below the 38.2% Fibonacci support following Friday's wick, it could extend to 23.6%. Otherwise, the bull market will continue, and the next target could be the 61.8% Fibonacci level.​