Weekly FX forecast from NordFX

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 7 - 11, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Most experts (55%) expected a correction of the pair up to the zone of 1.1000. This scenario was also supported by 15% of the oscillators on D1 and W1, giving clear signals about the pair being oversold. This forecast can be considered fulfilled by 100%, since the EUR rate rose on Thursday September 3 to the level of 1.0999 USD. The warning of the graphical analysis was also true that before going to the level of 1.1000, the pair may expect a decline, which it showed at the very beginning of the week.
The growth of the European currency was supported by weak macro statistics from the USA, caused in many respects by the trade wars waged by President Trump. Thus, the ISM index of business activity in the service sector showed a fall from 56.4 to 52.6. After its publication on October 3, the market drew attention to the release on the American labor market, which traditionally saw the light on the first Friday of the month, October 4. The number of new jobs created in the USA outside the agricultural sector (Non-Farm Payrolls) fell by almost 20% (from 168K to 136K), which also indicates the approach of a recession.
It is such indicators as ISM and NFP that determine the steps taken by the US Federal Reserve to change the interest rate. Therefore, the key event was the speech of Jerome Powell at the very end of the working week, from which investors hoped to find out the Fed's plans for the coming months.
Powell is famous for his ability to say a lot and not say anything specific. It so happened this time as well. As a result, after making several light jumps, the pair froze at around 1.0980;

- GBP/USD. In the British Isles, the first week of October was surprisingly calm. Nothing extraordinary happened around Brexit. Therefore, the [air ended up on Friday October 3rd in the same zone as it had been seven days before. Most of the time it moved in the side channel in the range 1.2275-1.2350, although both the bulls and the bears made several attempts to go beyond it. So, the local low was fixed at 1.2205, the high was at 1.2415, and the range of exchange rate fluctuations was 210 points;

- USD/JPY. As for the yen, it was expected that investors would wait for the developments in the US-China trade war. The yen could be pushed up by a decrease in the yield on American bonds. As a result, the fog around the negotiations between Washington and Beijing did not clear, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell by 12%. Thanks to these factors, as well as the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US, the yen rose, reaching on Thursday the values of a month ago in the area of 106.50. The final point of the week was set by the Japanese currency at 106.85;

- Cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency “Fear & Greed Index” rose from the red zone of “extreme fear” to the orange zone of “ordinary fear”. The fear that Bitcoin could fall even lower has not gone away. The market just calmed down and came to its senses a bit after an unsuccessful start of the Bakkt crypto futures trading and the ensuing panic on September 24th. Traders and investors took a break, which is clearly visible on the BTC/USD chart. The maximum volatility of the pair last week occurred on September 30 - October 01 and amounted to about 9%. For the rest of the time, the pair moved along the $8.190 horizon in an even narrower side channel, not exceeding 5%.
Following the main cryptocurrency, the main altcoins, Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD), etc. also went into the side trend. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market returned to the values of mid-May 2019 and amounts to just over $223 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Over the coming week, we are waiting for a fairly large number of events, including numerous speeches by the head of the US Federal Reserve J. Powell in the first half of the week. However, the most important events will undoubtedly be the publication of the minutes of the Fed Governing Council on Wednesday October 9, and the report on the meeting of their colleagues from the ECB on Thursday October 10. Both of these documents should shed the light on the monetary and financial policies of the United States and the EU in the near future.
At the moment, the votes of experts are distributed as follows. 60% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote in favor of the pair falling and attempting to update the October 01 low 1.0880. The remaining 40% of analysts, in full agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, adhere to the opposite point of view, believing that the European currency has not yet exhausted its potential for growth and the pair will be able to rise to the zone of 1.1100.
And finally, the indicators. Both oscillators and trend indicators on H4 are mostly colored green, on D1, half of them already change color to red, and on W1, red becomes dominant. At the same time, about 15% of the oscillators are already signaling the pair is overbought on H4 and D1;

- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, October 08, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney is scheduled. However, it is not him, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson who now acts as the main newsmaker in the UK. And what he says, and even more so does, excites investors much more (no offense be told to Mr. Carney). But what Mr. Johnson will say and do is not yet clear to anyone (perhaps even to himself either). Only three weeks are left before Britain’s exit from the EU, and it’s unlikely that Johnson will be able to agree with Brussels on the terms of a deal advantageous for his country. So, either Brexit without a deal, or ... its another extension.
Although miracles do happen sometimes... But, as the survey shows, 65% of analysts, like graphical analysis, do not believe in them. Therefore, they are expecting the pound to fall further in an attempt to update September 3 low at 1.1960. The nearest supports are at the levels of 1.2200 and 1.2070.
It is only 35% of experts who believe in Boris Johnson and expect the best, they are waiting for the strengthening of the pound and raising the pair to the height of 1.2525.
Among the indicators, the situation is similar to the situation in the British Parliament: a complete mixture of red, green and gray colors, as well as discord regarding the pair being overbought or oversold on different time frames. So, you should not count on the help of indicators in making decisions at the moment;

- USD/JPY. Graphical analysis and 65% of experts count on the growth of the yen and the fall of the pair. Moreover, this is not only a weekly forecast, but also a forecast until the end of 2019. 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this, as well as 75% on W1. But among oscillators, the situation is different: 75% of them vote for the southward movement on H4, 60% vote on D1, and only 25% on W1. The goals of the bears are 106.50, 105.70, 105.00 and 104.45. The goals of the bulls are 107.55, 108.50, 109.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. Digital market fans continue to mesmerize investors with promises of sky-high profits. So, the developer of the famous antivirus software John McAfee claims that the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million in 2020. He explains his forecast with a limited number of Bitcoins, 85% of which have already been mined. A more "modest" forecast is given by analysts at the German Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB ).In their opinion, the planned halving of the mining reward for the next year could lead to an increase in the BTC price to $90,000, which at the current price of $8,200 will yield almost 1000% of the profit.
However, along with optimists, voices of the skeptics are heard as well, whose number is constantly growing. In the two years that have passed since the second half of 2017, cryptocurrencies not only failed to supplant traditional money, but did not even become any serious part of the financial system. They did not begin to be used on a large scale as a means of payment. Moreover, falling into the grip of state regulation, they simply lose their idea of a financial market independent of governments.
Currently, only 25% of analysts believe that Bitcoin will be able to rise above the $8,500-8,600 zone in the coming days. Most speak of a sideways movement with some dominance of bears that can lower the pair to $7,500-7,700.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
227
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 14-18, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Last week was marked by two events. The first is progress on the next stage of trade negotiations between the US and China, the beginning of which was called by president Trump "very, very good." The second is a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. Increased hopes for a regulated UK exit pushed the pound up, followed by a pull to the North by the European currency as well. It was facilitated by the minutes of the ECB meeting published on Thursday, October 10, which confirmed that the Bank is coming to the end of the easing policy (QE). As a result, the pair was able to rise to 1.1062;

- GBP/USD. Only 35% of experts believed in the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and counted on a miracle. And now the miracle did happen, and even exceeded all expectations. Analysts were waiting for the pair to rise to the height of 1.2525, in reality, the pound soared by more than 500 points, reaching the height of 1.2708. The reason was a breakthrough in the negotiations on the Irish border, following which Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said that they were "very positive and promising." It is possible that Johnson is ready to introduce special terms for Northern Ireland and allow it to remain in the European Customs Union for four years after Brexit.
According to experts, the GBP/USD pair was so oversold that any positive news was able to cause the pound to rise. And in this case, the positive turn in the negotiations worked like a trigger, allowing the British currency to become heavier by 4% in just a couple of days;

- USD/JPY. But for the yen, unlike the pound, it seems that hard days have come: thanks to the growth of risk sentiment, the Japanese currency has undergone a massive sell-off, resulting in its quotes’ fall by almost 200 points, to the level of 108.62 yen per dollar. Among the reasons are several. These are hopes for a favorable outcome of the US-China trade war, progress in Brexit negotiations, the latest minutes of the ECB meeting and a sharp rise in the US bond yields;

- Cryptocurrencies. The capitalization of the crypto market ($234 billion) is still small compared to traditional markets (the gold market is estimated at $9 trillion, the stock market – at $66 trillion, the bond market – at $86 trillion) and does not exceed two tenths of a percent of their total assets. But, despite this, the topic of cryptocurrencies constantly arises on the crest of the world politics.
So, the famous American billionaire Daniel Steven Pena said that cryptocurrencies can be the result of a conspiracy of Russia against the United States, and President Vladimir Putin himself is behind the creation of Bitcoin. This statement was echoed by the appeal of members of the House of Representatives of the US Congress to the Head of the Fed with a proposal to issue a crypto-dollar. With this step, the authors of the appeal want to protect American finances from the influence of someone else's hostile cryptocurrency.
A similar initiative was made by German Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, who called for the release of the digital Euro. "We should not leave this space to China, Russia, the United States or any of the private suppliers," he said.
Crypto-dollar and crypto-Euro are things of the distant future, but already now governments and Central banks are beginning to actively fight against potential independent competitors. Zuckerberg's (Facebook) release of his own Libra coin came under intense pressure. The next in line is TON-coin, the launch of which Telegram is rapidly approaching.
For now, the main cryptocurrency on which the entire market is based, of course, remains Bitcoin. The forecast for the past week, which was supported by the majority of experts (75%), assumed a lateral movement of the BTC/USD pair with some dominance of bears, able to lower the pair to $7,500-7,700. However, on Monday, bitcoin found a local bottom at $7,795, and then turned around and went up. The change in trend may have been due to the launch of the p2p platform from Binance, where Bitcoin and Ethereum will be traded for Chinese yuan.
On Wednesday, October 09, the pair managed to overcome a two-week resistance in the $8,350 zone and on Friday reached a high of $8,815. After that, it returned to the $8,350 horizon, which may now become a new strong support area for it.
Altcoins obediently repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency for the whole week. However, while the swing of Ethereum (ETH/USD) and ripple (XRP/USD) was about 17%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) behaved somewhat calmer, demonstrating volatility at the level of 13%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- UR/USD. Regarding the final outcome of the US-China trade negotiations, markets are showing reasonable restraint, expecting endless disputes to continue, and maybe even their complete collapse and the introduction of new duties. In the coming week, we also expect some important news that can have a strong impact on the rates of the currencies in question. Among them are statistics from China on Monday October 14 and Friday October 18, as well as the UK and Eurozone inflation reports on Tuesday October 15 and Wednesday October 17. On Thursday, increased volatility may be caused by the report on industrial production in the United States. A significant decrease in this indicator is predicted: from 0.6% to 0.1%. And if the actual value coincides with the forecast, one can expect a decline in the dollar.
The fall of the dollar and the rise of the pair are expected by 70% of experts, whose forecast is supported by the readings of 75% of oscillators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. The support zone in case of growth of the pair is 1.1000. Targets are 1.1075, 1.1100 and 1.1160.
The opposite point of view is held by 30% of analysts and 20% of oscillators, giving signals about the pair being overbought. The targets are 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0925 and the low of 01 October 1.0880;

- GBP/USD. In fact, it is too early to exult over the successful conclusion of Brexit. Johnson still needs the terms of the deal with the EU be approved by Parliament. And this, we recall, the previous Prime Minister of Great Britain Theresa May failed to do, four times. The negotiations with Ireland have also not yet concluded. In addition, the European Council summit on Brexit will be held on the coming Thursday and Friday. Each of these steps can slow down the process of concluding a deal or even become an insurmountable obstacle in its path. In the latter case, the EU is ready to provide a new extension until the summer of 2020 to still ensure an orderly exit of the UK from the EU.
These difficulties, as well as too rapid growth of the pound last week, led to the fact that now 75% of experts expect a reversal of the trend and the fall of the British currency to the 1.2200 zone. This scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pound is overbought.
The vast majority of oscillators and trend indicators, as well as 25% of experts waiting for the strengthening of the pound and the rise of the pair to the height of 1.2800, still believe in the luck of Boris Johnson. Naturally, the emergence of serious positive news regarding Brexit, not to mention the signing of the Agreement, can lead to another jerk of the pound to cosmic heights;

- USD/JPY. On H4, 100% of trend indicators look up, on D1, a little less – 90%. 75% of oscillators are colored green on both H4 and D1, the remaining 15% give signals about the pair being overbought. The graphical analysis on D1 indicates a decline of the pair to the horizon of 106.65, and then a return to the height of 108.40.
As for the experts, their opinions are equally divided: a third are for the pair's growth, a third are for the fall and a third vote for the sideways trend. The support zones are 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, the zones of resistance are109.00 and 109.85;

- Cryptocurrencies. As mentioned above, breaking through the two-week resistance at $8,350, Bitcoin may now turn this zone into a strong enough support. Moreover, the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index, rising from the red zone of "extreme fear", has almost passed the orange zone of "Ordibary Fear" and is approaching its neutral position. If this happens, the next target for the BTC/USD pair will be to consolidate in the $9,000 area. However, this forecast is supported by only 35% of analysts. Most of them (65%) have sided with the bears, expecting the pair to decline first to the horizon of $8,000, and then to $400 below.
Another "cosmic" forecast, which we regularly talk about, was the statement of the creator of the famous antivirus John McAfee that in 2020 the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million. The main impetus for reaching the bullish dynamics, according to him, will be the limited number if coins as well as the reduction in the number of altcoins, which will make the main coin the only reliable and stable asset.
Analysts of the TIE also predict a gloomy future for altcoins. According to their observations, interest in altcoins is rapidly falling, approaching zero in some cases. So, it is possible that out of thousands of coins only a few of the largest, such as Ethereum or Libra will remain afloat in a few months.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
227
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 21 - 25, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The main theme last week was undoubtedly Brexit. New Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to reach a compromise with Brussels, and on Thursday October 17, the European Union Summit approved an agreement on the terms of Britain's exit from the EU and its date, November 01. This event, as well as the reduction of political and trade risks in Europe, Asia and America, "seasoned" with weak statistics from the US, opened the way to the north for the bulls.
The overwhelming majority of experts (70%) pointed to 1.1160 as the main target, and this forecast turned out to be absolutely correct: on Friday evening the pair managed to rise to this height, where it ended the week-long session;

- GBP/USD. Since October 08, the British currency has gained almost 800 points, or about 6%. And all this thanks to the hope for a coming successful completion of the" show " called Brexit, which has lasted for 3.5 years and od each all are quite tired. At the peak of optimism on Thursday, October 17, the pound was noted at 1.2990, followed by a correction and a finish at 1.2940;

- USD/JPY. Recall that the opinions of the experts concerning the yen were spread equally last week: a third voted for the pair's growth, a third for its fall and a third for a sideways trend. And they were all right. At first, the pair fell slightly to the level of 108.02. Then it rose a little, to the level of 108.90, then moved sideways and finished almost where it was a week ago, in the Pivot Point zone 108.40-108.45;

– cryptocurrencies. Twitter users have estimated that the price of the main cryptocurrency has increased by 838.078.685% over the past ten years. But it seems that such space takeoffs are no longer worth waiting for. Not so long ago, Bitcoin was pushed up by the news of the launch of major projects such as Libra by Facebook and TON by Telegram. (Though it's not really clear why. After all, if both of these coins appeared, they would constitute a powerful competition to Bitcoin). But many governments and regulators have turned on the Facebook project, and Telegram has postponed the launch of TON altogether amid problems with American legislation. Thus, both of these drivers, if not completely disappeared, are at least greatly weakened. And this could not but affect the crypto market. Over the past ten days, its capitalization has fallen from $236 billion to $224 billion, and the price of Bitcoin, as most of our experts had expected, has fallen to the lower limit of the side corridor of $7,795-8,700.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) dutifully followed to the south in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. But as for the Ripple (XRP/USD), it shows a stubborn character for the last four weeks. During this time, the price of the coin rose by 40%, returning to a strong medium-term support/resistance level in the 0.30 zone. Most likely, this rise is caused by a number of positive news related directly to the company itself.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- GBP/USD. We put this pair before the Euro/Dollar because everything that will happen to the pound in the coming week will have a powerful impact on the quotes of the other leading currencies.
In fact, the new Brexit agreement is basically the same text that the previous Prime Minister Theresa May failed for three times to "push" through the British Parliament. And now on Saturday 19 October, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will try to do it. And without Parliamentary approval, the deal with the EU will not take place.
The main difference of Johnson's version is the absence of the so-called "Irish backstop", because of which the UK risked remaining in the European customs Union. But Johnson failed to completely close this border gap, and Northern Ireland will still have to obey EU trade rules. And in this, many see a threat of the collapse of the United Kingdom. The Democratic unionist party of Northern Ireland is unhappy as well. "We do not intend to vote for this project," said the DUP leader Arlene Foster. "It's not the end yet. It's not even the beginning of the end! »
So, for the first time since the 1982 Falklands war, MPs will cancel their weekend plans and meet for an emergency meeting. When this forecast is written, we do not yet know how "super Saturday" ends. But a simple count shows that Johnson may be a few votes short and the vote will fail and bring back the old uncertainty about the outcome of Brexit.
In any case, there is a lot of chance that on Monday, October 21, the markets will open with a big gap. Almost 20% of oscillators already indicate the British currency is overbought. And in case of Johnson's defeat, we will see a powerful counterattack of the bears and the return of the pair to the lows of the first decade of October in the area of 1.2200. (Supports 1.2515, 1.2380 and 1.2280). If the Agreement is approved, the pound has a lot of chances to exceed this year's maximum at 1.3380.
If we move from the weekly forecast to the medium-term, it becomes clear that even in the case of a regulated Brexit, the pound will still be under pressure. Accustomed to working within the EU, the UK economy, left alone, will surely begin to experience serious difficulties, which will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates and take a number of serious steps to ease monetary policy. In such a situation, the pound has a lot of chances to roll back from the highs and return to the 1.3100 zone;

- EUR/USD. In the coming week, the interest rate decisions of the People's Bank of China on Monday 21 October and the ECB on Thursday 24 October will be known. And if the rate on the Euro is likely to remain unchanged, Beijing may present markets with a small surprise. The data on business activity in Germany, which will also be released next Thursday, are also of interest. But, as already mentioned, the main trend of the pair will be set by the pound, which will either pull the Euro up, or overturn it by a hundred or two points. The bears ' targets are September-October lows of 1.0850-1.0925, the bulls' targets are 1.1250-1.1350.
At the moment, the majority of experts (80%) expect that Boris Johnson will be able to get a majority of votes in Parliament, and only 20% predict the fall of the pair. It is interesting that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of forces is mirrored, and here 80% are waiting for the decline of the pair to the zone 1.0800-1.0900 by the end of the year;

- USD/JPY. The targets for the yen remained unchanged. Support zones – 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, resistance - 109.00 and 109.85. It is only the mood of the experts that has changed. If 60% of them vote for the growth of the pair the next week, and 40% are for the fall, then in the medium – term interval everything is vice versa: 40% are for the growth and 60% are for the fall.
There is no unity among the indicators either. If on H4 80% of oscillators are colored red and 20% signal the pair is oversold, then on D1 80% have changed the color to green, and 20% believe that the pair is oversold.
The result of the discord is summed up by the graphical analysis on D1, which draws first a fall to the level of 107.50, and then a rise to the height of 109.00;

– cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD pair has been moving along the $7,795-8,700 corridor with a Pivot Point of $8,300 for almost a month, starting from September 25. The same thing happened from mid-May to mid-June. But then, if you follow the Elliott wave theory, it was a respite (or corrective wave #4) between the impulse waves #3 and # 5 of the uptrend (which is clearly visible on the W1 timeframe). Now the picture is reversed and, following the same Elliott, we see the end of wave #5 already on a downtrend. In theory, we should expect an upward correction of the pair, especially since the MFI indicator on H4, D1 and W1 is in the lower, critical zone, and the MACD on H4 and D1 indicates divergence. But it has long been noticed that when it comes to cryptocurrencies, graphic and technical analysis often slip. Much more important here are the news background and manipulations of large speculators. The fact remains that over the past four months, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by more than 40%, and the crypto-currency "Fear & Greed Index" is still in the "Fear" zone.
Pessimistic sentiment is supported by 60% of experts who expect a breakthrough of the lower border of the corridor and the fall of the BTC/USD pair to the $7,000-7,400 zone. The remaining 40% of analysts do not expect Bitcoin to take off either. In their opinion, in the coming week, the reference cryptocurrency will be traded in the range of $8,300-8,700 per 1 coin.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
227
1
34
36
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 28 - November 01, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Since it is not only the pound that depends on what happens in the framework of Brexit, but also the Euro, to begin with, we will tell you what the situation looks like with the UK's exit from the EU a week before this exit (if it happens of course). And the situation looks like... a vicious circle.
On the one hand, Prime Minister Boris Johnson refuses to withdraw his draft EU withdrawal Agreement until Parliament agrees to an election on December 12. But the Parliament does not agree, because the opposition wants Johnson to rule out the option of leaving without an Agreement with the EU, as well as for the EU to agree to an extension of the terms of this exit. The EU, for its part, before deciding on how long to extend Brexit, is waiting for the consent (or disagreement) of Parliament for early elections on December 12.
Is everything clear? Or not? Judging by the reaction of the markets, it is difficult to understand the current situation, but it is even more difficult to make any predictions. That is why we did not see any significant jumps in quotations last week. The Euro weakened slightly against the dollar, but this fall was only 100 points, and the pair ended the five-day session at 1.1080.
In addition to the endless uncertainty with Brexit, additional pressure on the Euro is certainly exerted by the slowing European economy. Despite the efforts of the ECB, inflation can not reach the target level of 2%. In September, the European regulator lowered its key interest rate to negative -0.5% and announced its intention to resume the program of quantitative easing (QE). On October 31, the current head of the ECB leaves his post, and it is possible that with the arrival of the new head, Christine Lagarde, the policy of the European Central Bank will undergo some changes. But at the moment, from the point of view of investors, the advantage is on the side of the dollar, as the US Federal Reserve rate is positive and is 2%;

- GBP/USD. So, instead of bringing clarity, the vote on the terms of Brexit in the UK Parliament on October 19 confused the situation even more. As a result, "super Saturday" did not lead to super jumps in the financial markets, but caused only a smooth decline in the British currency by about 200 points, returning the quotes to the levels of seven days ago, to the 1.2825 zone;

- USD/JPY. Giving a forecast for this pair the previous week, we noted a complete confusion and discord among both analysts and technical analysis tools. It seems that speculators have lost interest in the Japanese currency for a while, as a result, the pair moved in the corridor 108.45-108.75 most of the time. Two attempts of the bears to reverse the situation can not be taken into account, as the pair very quickly returned to this super-narrow channel, only 30 points wide, closer to the upper border of which it put the final point, freezing at 108.65;

– cryptocurrencies. As one analyst put it, the head of Facebook "hammered the last nail into the lid of the cryptocurrency coffin" last week. More precisely, Zuckerberg and congressmen hammered it together during his appearance before the House of Representatives Financial Service Committee. Congressmen have not only expressed concern about the spread of cryptocurrencies in general and the Libra project in particular. They said cryptocurrencies pose a threat to the traditional currency market and could be used to finance criminal activity and money laundering. But this is not all: during the hearings, a proposal was made to think about a bill on a complete ban of cryptocurrencies.
As for Mark Zuckerberg, he said that Libra will not be launched until it receives the permission of the regulator. And in general, according to him, Libra is a risky project, and he, Zuckerberg, is not at all sure that this initiative of his is able to bring him profit.
Recall that shortly before, against the background of problems with the American legislation, Telegram "turned on the back speed" and postponed the launch of its TON cryptocurrency.
We have repeatedly written that the crypto market depends on the news background as much as possible. And the news from the US Congress led to the fact that on Wednesday October 23, the benchmark currency collapsed to a five-month low, shrinking by almost $1,000 in a day, and reaching the bottom at $7.330.
But the crypto surprises did not end there, and it turned out that it was too early to bury this market. On Friday, October 25, the market literally exploded, and the bitcoin exchange rate made an incredible jump of $3,000, adding a maximum of 40% and reaching $10,500.
This was the largest increase since February 2014., and it was caused by news again: that Chinese President XI Jinping supported the development of blockchain. At the same time, the editorial of the Chinese newspaper People's Daily, which reported on this statement, doesn't have a word about bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general, but the bulls did not need them.
Following bitcoin, almost all altcoins from the TOP 100 went up. Ethereum (ETH/USD) jumped almost 30%, ripple (XRP/USD) – 31%, litecoin (LTC/USD) – 35%.
As a result, coin owners and traders who have already opened long positions on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were able to get a very significant profit. Those who "jumped into the last car of the departing train" suffered no less significant losses: the BTC/USD pair turned around very quickly and collapsed to the level of $9,055 – a powerful support on which it relied since mid-June.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Some analysts believe that the coming week may be the "hottest" this year. In addition to the fact that the UK may leave the European Union on Thursday, October 31, the day before, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve may lower the interest rate on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. It seems that the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has succumbed to the exhortations of President Trump. His office has already launched a $60 billion monthly asset purchase program In October, and now here is another step toward stimulating the American real sector. Powell does not want to call what is happening a quantitative easening (QE) for some reason, but perhaps he is right: a number of experts believe that there is just another emission of the dollar mass and pumping the economy with unsecured money. With a certain degree of probability, this is due to the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. And Trump, who is seeking re-election to the second term, is pressing the Fed to cut the rate further, down to zero.
Shortly before the Fed meeting, on October 30, preliminary data on US GDP will be known and, according to forecasts, it will show a slowdown in the economic growth in the III quarter from 2.0% to 1.6%. If so, Trump will get another lever of pressure on Powell and the Fed led by him.
As for other events of the coming week, it is worth noting the preliminary estimate of the GDP growth and inflation data in the Eurozone, which will be known on Thursday 31 October. Data on the US labor market (including NFP) and the business activity index from ISM will traditionally be released on Friday, November 01.
Summing up the forecasts of experts for the coming week, it has not been possible to form any definite opinion: 50% are for the fall of the pair, 50% are for its growth. A similar discrepancy is observed in the readings of indicators on D1. This is due to uncertainty and the decision of the Federal Reserve on the interest rate, and with the exit/non-exit of Britain from the EU.
It should be noted that even if there is no exit without a deal and Brexit gets a delay, it can still have a negative impact on the Euro exchange rate, as a result of which the pair will rush to the minimum of October 01 in the area of 1.0880, which can be reached during November. 70% of experts agree with this forecast. The main supports are located at 1.1065, 1.1000 and 1.0940 levels.
The signing of the agreement with the EU, supported by the UK Parliament, will push the pair up into the 1.1350-1.1400 zone. Resistances are at 1.1180, 1.1240 and 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Most experts (60%) do not expect anything good for the pound in the near future. In full agreement with the graphical analysis on D1 and 80% of the indicators on H4, they are waiting for the pair to fall to the level of 1.2500. Supports are 1.2770 and 1.2580.
On the other hand, 20% of oscillators on H4 already give signals the pair is oversold, and 90% of their "colleagues" on D1 are painted green. 85% of trend indicators on D1 are looking to the north as well, the target is the height of 1.3200.
There were only 30% of experts in the list of "green activists" this week. The remaining 10% refused to give any forecasts and, perhaps, they are right: British politicians are able to turn any arguments, calculations and forecasts to dust;

- USD/JPY. In theory, the targets for the yen have remained unchanged. Support zones are 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, those of resistance are109.00 and 109.85. But this is in theory. In reality, long-term bonds, with which the Japanese currency is strongly correlated, remain squeezed in a narrow range, curbing the risk appetite of investors. Of course, the above events of the week, as well as the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate on Thursday 31 October could fuel interest in the yen, but this is again in theory. With almost 100% probability, the regulator will leave the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%.
Interestingly, analysts at J. P. Morgan Chase believe negative Central Bank rates are a "bad idea" that only prevents economies from emerging from recession. 80% of the surveyed experts agree with them, expecting that the yen will continue to fall, the pair will finally break through the upper limit of the corridor 108.45-108.75 and rise a little further to the north. But the graphical analysis on H4 predicts the continuation of this sideways trend at least for the first half of the week;

– cryptocurrencies. So, during the week, the BTC/USD pair first rapidly lost $1,000 in price, then even more rapidly rose by $3,000, and then collapsed again, shrinking in price by $1,445. Trying to give any forecast in the conditions of such volatility is a thankless task. Focusing on technical analysis tools is generally useless. It is necessary to give the market the opportunity to calm down a little and understand what the Chinese President really meant.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
227
1
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36
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 04 – 08, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. What was expected did happen: on Wednesday, October 30, the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. Naturally, the US currency began to fall, the pair went up, but the movement was quite moderate: the market has long been ready for this decision of the Federal Reserve. As a result, the pair hardly reached the level of 1.1175, returning to the medium-term support/resistance line, which began last March.
The key data on the US economy, which was released on Friday 01 November, didn't help the dollar a lot either. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) in October was more than predicted (128K vs. 89K), but significantly less than the September value of 180K. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector ISM was also less than expected (48.3 instead of 48.9). As a result, the bears' attempt to push the pair down ended in a fiasco, and after reaching the level of 1.127, it turned around, went back up and ended the week at 1.1165;

- GBP/USD. It was decided to add a few more episodes to the protracted series called Brexit. Britain never came out of the EU. The main character of the series, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who promised to "die in the ditch" if Brexit does not take place on October 31, changed his mind to die. The EU has granted the UK another extension, and now the country is heading for early parliamentary elections on December 12.
The next episode of the series will be devoted to the adoption by Parliament of amendments to the law on elections. And depending on which way the ship of British lawmaking heads, it depends on whether Prime Minister Johnson can stay at the helm.
The Brexit postponed once again and the weakening of the dollar allowed the pound to strengthen its positions somewhat, by the middle of Thursday, October 31, the GBP/USD pair rose by 150 points, then moved into a horizontal movement in the 1.2925-1.2975 corridor and finished at 1.2937;

- USD/JPY. As we predicted, the Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%. The growth of the yen last week was due to three main factors: the reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate, another slip in the preparation of the US-China trade agreement and, it is possible, the associated strong growth of long-term US Treasury bonds. According to Bloomberg, the Chinese side may not want to conclude any serious trade deals with the "unreliable President Trump." Trump, for his part, is unlikely to want to aggravate relations with China, so as not to damage the US economy in the run-up to the presidential election. So we can expect a long lull on this front.
Against this background, the result of the week was the strengthening of the Japanese currency to the level of 107.88. However, this was followed by a small rebound, as a result of which the pair put the final chord of the week at 108.16;

– cryptocurrencies. Fundstrat co-founder and analyst Tom Lee is confident that the stock market directly affects Bitcoin quotes. "Last Friday (October 25), the S&P 500 index began to grow actively due to the increase in the share price of a number of large technology companies. Bitcoin strengthened significantly as well. Many mentioned XI Jinping's speeches, but in fact everything could come together in the stock market, " Li said. However, he somehow did not take into account that the growth of technology stocks could be caused by the statement of the head of China regarding the popularization of digital currencies and blockchain.
Be that as it may, according to a report provided by Google Trends, thanks to the Bitcoin rally, the number of Internet requests on the topic of cryptocurrencies increased by 30 percent last week. But if the growth of Bitcoin caused the growth of requests, then the growth of requests did not affect Bitcoin in any way. As we expected, after such a shake-up, the market went into a calming stage, volatility gradually came to naught, and quotes, consolidating in the $9,250 zone, drew a figure known in technical analysis as the "pennant".
Following the main cryptocurrency (BTC/USD), such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) did the same. The total market capitalization of the crypto market was not an exception, which is logical, its volume gradually decreased during the week from $257 billion to $239 billion.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On November 1, the ECB began buying market assets worth 20 billion euros per month. On the same day, former IMF chief Christine Lagarde replaced Mario Draghi as head of the Bank. Under her, according to some experts, the monetary policy of the European regulator will become softer. That, as a consequence, will cause a decline in the Euro against the dollar.
But there is a reverse scenario. It suggests that under pressure from Trump, the US Federal Reserve will reduce the interest rate to zero. This will solve the problem with dollar liquidity and, providing the American market with cheap money, help Trump in re-election for a second term. The US government debt, according to the US Treasury Department, has already reached a record high of $23 trillion. And further printing of unsecured money could significantly weaken the dollar. Trump's pre-election intention to reduce the payroll tax can also contribute to the fall of the US currency.
This situation forces global players to be more cautious, as a result of which the monthly volatility in the EUR/USD pair fell to 4.5%. This happened only twice – in 2007. and in 2014.
If we talk about the very near future, the fall of the dollar and the growth of the Euro in the coming week is expected by 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The nearest goal is the rise and consolidation of the pair in the 1.1200-1.1250 echelon. The next targets are 1.1350 and 1.1410.
40% of experts supported by graphical analysis and 10% of oscillators giving signals about the European currency being overbought voted for the decline of the Euro. In this scenario, the pair is most likely to move in the side channel 1.1075-1.1175. And in case of breakdown of its lower border, there will be a decrease to support in the 1.1000 zone.
The formation of local trends may be influenced by the change in the ISM business activity index in the service sector, the value of which will be known on Tuesday 05 November. According to forecasts, it can grow from 52.6 to 53.2, which in the short term will strengthen the dollar;

- GBP/USD. Thursday 07 November will be dedicated to the UK. On this day, the Bank of England will announce its decision on the interest rate, as well as the planned volume of asset purchases. These figures are likely to remain unchanged. Therefore, of greater interest is the speech of the head of the Bank Mark Carney, in which investors will look for an answer to the question of how the regulator will behave in the event of a particular outcome of the early parliamentary elections. Even here, though, Carney may confine himself to phrases as foggy as London weather.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators are colored green. 65% of experts also expect that, following in the wake of the Euro, the pound will improve its position against the dollar. The nearest resistance is 1.3015, the target is 1.3125.
The remaining 35%, together with graphical analysis on H4 and D1, believe that the GBP/USD pair will stay in the side corridor 1.2790-1.3015. If its lower border breaks, the next support is in the 1.2700 zone;

- USD/JPY. It is unlikely to expect surprises from the meeting of the monetary policy Committee of the Bank of Japan on Monday 06 November as well. Moreover, last week the regulator not only confirmed the immutability of its course, but also removed the deadlines for it. Now it's "not until 2020," but " as long as will be needed." Rather, the yen will be affected on Tuesday by the ISM business activity index in the US services sector.
At the moment the opinions of the experts are distributed as follows: 65%, supported by 75% of indicators, vote for further decline of the pair, 30%, supported by 25% of indicators, side with the bulls. Support levels are 107.50 and 106.65, resistance levels are at108.50, 109.00, 109.30 and 110.70;

– cryptocurrencies. Professor of Economics at Stanford University Darrell Duffy believes that within 10 years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be able to completely replace the usual banking system. And regulatory pressure on Libra and other promising projects is a big mistake. "Regulators will regret that they could not find a common language with Zuckerberg and other developers. A shadow cryptocurrency with such a vast community (Facebook) can easily bring down the financial system in a matter of months, " Duffy threatened.
However, when moving from a 10-year timeframe to a 7-day timeframe, the appetites of most analysts become much more modest. So, 50% of them are waiting for the continuation of the sideways trend along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,000-9,500. 25% believe that the BTC/USD pair can reach the $9,700-10,000 zone, and the remaining 25%, on the contrary, expect to see it around $8,100-8,500.
As for the medium-term forecast, 80% of experts believe that the pair will meet the onset of 2020 in the $10,500-11,000 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
227
1
34
36
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 11 – 15, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. On Thursday, November 07, the US markets updated historical highs after reports of the US and China willingness to remove duties as new parts of the Trade Treaty are being signed. Speculators have turned their backs on traditional safe havens such as bonds, yen and gold. The European currency has also become cheaper against the dollar: investors expect the US macroeconomic indicators to improve after the US-China trade war ends. And although it is still a long way to signing a full-fledged agreement, analysts believe that Donald Trump will no longer make any sudden moves ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
Last week 40% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, voted for the reduction of the Euro. 10% of the oscillators pointed that the European currency was overbought, which is a strong signal for the trend to change. In the case of a breakdown of the lower border of the side channel 1.1075-1.1175, the bearish scenario provided for a decrease of the pair to support in the 1.1000 zone. This was what happened in reality: by the end of the week session, the pair was at 1.1016, and the final chord was set at 1.1020;

- GBP/USD. As expected, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. But what analysts did not expect was that two of the nine members of the monetary policy Committee would vote to cut the rate to 0.50%. These two votes were enough for the pound to lose more than 70 points.
In general, as expected, the pound followed in the wake of the Euro. And if the EUR/USD pair lost about 150 points in five days, the British currency fell by 170 points, ending the week at 1.2780;

- USD/JPY. As mentioned above, the progress in the US-China talks reflected on the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency. As a result, the fall of the Japanese currency against the dollar at the maximum on Thursday 07 November amounted to 130 points. The pair met the end of the five-day period at the level of 109.22;

– cryptocurrencies. As for the news background, so strongly affecting the quotes of digital currencies, the past week was not particularly outstanding. Therefore, Bitcoin quietly moved along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,100-9,500 until Friday. However, November 08 brought disappointment to investors and traders who opened long positions. The reference cryptocurrency went down sharply and, having lost 6% of its value in a few hours, found a local bottom at the level of $8,680.
It is difficult to say unequivocally what was the reason for such a fall. Fans of technical analysis refer to the narrowing triangle on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart. The reason could be the news about another – the seventh this year – hacking of a cryptocurrency exchange. This time, hackers withdrew funds in 23 digital assets totaling about $500 thousand from the Vietnamese exchange VinDAX.
Speaking of digital assets. The past week is interesting because a number of top altcoins did not follow in the wake of the main cryptocurrency but demonstrated independent dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which went to the south, Ethereum (ETH/USD) completed the seven-day period in the same place where it began, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) put up by 5%.
Ripple was different. It should be noted that, despite the efforts of the management of Ripple, the clouds over this token continue to thicken. It "shrunk" by 90% in 2018-2019. The last week was no exception. The week volatility of the XRP/USD pair was about 14%, and it fell to the level of 0.2710 on Friday 07 November.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. In the coming week, we are expecting a lot of significant economic events. Among them the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in the US Congress in the middle of the week should be noted. Also, the formation of local trends may be influenced by inflation data in the United States on Wednesday 13 November, the Eurozone GDP estimate on Thursday 14 November, and data on retail sales in the United States on Friday 15 November.
The rate of inflation in the United States should be seen with a special attention, because if inflation for October is much lower than the forecast, the Fed may decide on the fourth this year's interest rate cut next month.
And, of course, the market will listen carefully to the news about the progress of the US-China trade war. There are many chances that the optimism associated with the decision of the parties to phase out customs tariffs will continue this week. Investors are also expecting some positive news from US President Trump's meeting with Chinese President XI Jinping in December. That is why 65% of experts voted for the further strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the Euro to the zone 1.0940-1.0990. The further target is the minimum of October 01, 1.0880.
Graphical analysis and indicators show a rare unanimity with analysts: 90% of oscillators and 100% of indicators are colored red.
Only 20% of experts and 10% of oscillators expect the pair to grow, signaling it is oversold. The nearest resistance zone is 1.1075, then 1.1110 and 1.1180.
And finally, the remaining 15% of analysts talk about a sideways trend. Over the past four weeks, the pair has formed a double-headed top, and experts expect it to stay at its base for some time, moving in the range of 1.0990-1.1075;

- GBP/USD. The UK economy is experiencing constant difficulties because of the uncertainty due to Brexit. There was a decline in the construction industry by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter of this year and a drop in industrial production, caused, among other things, by the closure of several automobile plants. For this reason, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter, which will be known on Monday 11 November, can cause serious jumps in the British currency. According to the forecast, GDP growth could reach +0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which will push the pair up.
The main driver of the GBP/USD pair will remain the dollar. As in the case of the Euro, 65% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and the vast majority of indicators are waiting for its strengthening and the fall of the pound. Supports are at 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2550 levels.
As for the remaining 35% of analysts, they believe that after reaching the lower limit of the three-week side channel 1.2770-1.3000, the pair will turn around and go north. 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this as well, giving signals that the pair is oversold;

- USD/JPY. The situation with the Japanese currency is similar to the Euro and the pound. It is also under pressure from improving macroeconomic indicators of the United States and China after the signing of the "Peace Treaty".
On Thursday, November 14, data on Japan's GDP growth in the 3rd quarter will be released. Analysts are already predicting a slowdown in the Japanese economy. So the Japanese yen will have another reason to weaken in the short term, with which 65% of experts agree. The nearest resistance level is 109.50, then 110.00 and 110.70.
Only 10% of analysts have voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decline of the pair, and 25% believe that the pair will move sideways along the Pivot Point 109.00;

– cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index deviated from the average value and moved closer to the fear zone by the end of the week. According to the classical interpretation, this position is a reason to think about opening long positions. However, investors have recently become much more cautious and expect all sorts of traps from sharp price spikes.
60% of experts remain pessimistic as well. So, according to Bloomberg analysts, the first cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $8,000 before the end of the year. The growth of the BTC/USD pair, as already mentioned, will be hampered by sales due to fears of "burning". However, despite this, 40% of experts believe that bitcoin will still be able to meet the onset of 2020 in the $10,500-11,000 zone.
For those who do not want to be nervous, daily watching the schedule of quotations, here is a piece of advice from the Director of the American bitcoin exchanger BitInstant Charlie Shrem. In his opinion, "the best way to invest in bitcoin is to hide 5 to 10 BTC in a cold wallet, and in such a way that you yourself can not access them for 20 years." "I do believe," he said, " that in 20 years 5-10 Bitcoins will be the money that will change your life for the better. Bitcoin will survive even a nuclear disaster, while banks and paper money will literally burn."


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
227
1
34
36
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 18 – 22, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. President Trump is plannng to be re-elected for a second term thanks to the strong growth of American GDP. Major US indices continue to storm historical highs. Futures on the S&P500 rose above 3100. The wave of purchases in the markets was spurred by the optimistic statement of the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow about the imminent conclusion of a trade deal with China. At the same time, the Financial Times reports that, in fact, the White House is not happy that China is stalling and not offering significant concessions in response to the abolition of tariffs. And Trump himself does not want to cancel them completely.
Speaking in Congress, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powellpraises the US economy, calling it a "star", but at the same time, citing many factors, including inflation and trade wars, does not rule out another interest rate cut. As a result, his words, together with the encouraging GDP of Germany, stopped the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair at the support of 1.0990 and pushed the European currency up, allowing it to finish the week with a small plus of 35 points;

- GBP/USD. The UK is preparing for early parliamentary elections. Therefore, there is no special news directly related to Brexit. And in this situation, the market begins to react actively to macroeconomic indicators. Thus, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter became known on Monday, November 11. As we predicted, the GDP growth was +0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which pushed the pair up more than 110 points to 1.2900. Then, until Thursday, the dollar tried to play back losses. But at the end of the week, thanks to the head of the Federal reserve Jerome Powell, the bulls took the initiative in their hands once again, and the pair ended the week near the landmark level of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. The more or less stable demand for the yen remained almost until the end of Thursday 14 November. The market hardly reacted even to the really weak GDP figures of Japan in the 3rd quarter (+0.1% compared to +0.4% in the previous quarter). All this allowed the Japanese currency to gain 100 points since the beginning of the week, reaching the critical point of contact with the MA-200 on the four-hour chart, which investors often use as a trend indicator. But the breakdown of the support and the reversal of the trend did not happen: thanks to the optimistic statements of Larry Kudlow about the course of the US-Chinese negotiations, the demand for protective assets fell, and the pair went north again, ending the trading session at 108.80 yen per 1 dollar;

– cryptocurrencies. The forecast, which was supported last week by the majority of experts (60%), can be reduced to just two words: "caution" and "pessimism". It is in line with these two concepts that the benchmark currency follows, gradually declining since the end of October. As a result, the pair reached the local bottom at $8,420 on the evening of November 15, returning to the boundaries of the side channel of $7,800-8,600, in which it moved from September 26 to October 22.
The pair was below the 200-day moving average for the whole last week, and it broke through the support in the form of a 50-day average as well by the end of the week, which also did not contribute to the growth of bullish optimism.
Top altcoins generally followed the bitcoin, repeating its poor performance. Ripple (XRP/USD) was not assisted by the large-scale support company deployed by bloggers and media, nor by its inclusion in The Coinbase debit card payment list. Ripple shrank another 8% during the week, reaching a low of $0.2528
Ethereum (ETH/USD) is struggling to keep from breaking the lower border of the three-week side channel of $175-195. Holders of this coin are constantly warmed by the idea that, thanks to POS-mining (proof of ownership), it may be recognized as a security in the future, which will cause an explosive growth in quotations.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) also found support near the bottom of the three-week corridor of $57-64. This level can be considered as a medium-term Pivot Point, around which the pair rotates starting from September 25.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, thanks to the statement of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and encouraging data on German GDP, the bears failed to break through the support at the level of 1.1000. After the GDP growth from -0.2% to +0.1%, representatives of the German government believe that the introduction of additional incentives to support the economy in the near future will not be required. Consumer demand together with government spending will be able to neutralize the problems of industry and exports.
It should be noted here that many macroeconomic indicators of the EU countries have recently turned out to be higher than forecast. However, uncertainty in the markets persists, and the preponderance of supporters of bulls over bears is now only 10%. 55% of experts voted for the growth of the Euro against 45%, who are convinced of the dollar strength. At the same time, both set modest goals for the pair. The goal of the bulls is its return in the corridor 1.1075-1.1175. The goal for the bears is a breakout of the 1.1000 support and transition to the 1.0940-1.1000 zone. Reaching the low of October 01, 1.0884, seems unlikely this week.
90% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on H4 side with the bulls. On D1, the picture is the opposite¬: 85% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators are colored red. Graphical analysis on both H4 and D1 is also on the side of the bears and indicates a fall of the pair at least to the horizon of 1.0965.
As for significant events that can affect the formation of trends and cause increased volatility next week, we are looking at the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, as well as the speech of the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde and data on business activity in the EU and Germany on Friday 22 November;

- GBP/USD. Against the backdrop of the Brexit respite, it is difficult to say what markets reaction will be caused by the hearing of the inflation report in the UK on Wednesday 20 November. But as the conservatives build their election program with an emphasis, among other, on the weakening of the country's economy, one can expect a number of loud statements from them.
In the meantime, 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect a reversal of the uptrend and the return of the pair to the November 08 low, 1.2765, and then its fall by another 100 points. The opposite position is taken by 40% of analysts in agreement with 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on H4 and D1. (The remaining 10% of the oscillators signal the pound is overbought). The nearest resistance levels are 1.2975 and 1.3015. The target is the height of 1.3100;

- USD/JPY. The yen has been falling for almost all autumn, and the pair moves up, relying on the MA200, which is clearly visible on the H4 chart. At least four attempts to break through this support ended in failure. And how the fifth attempt will end depends directly on the macroeconomic indicators of the United States and China, and the prospects of signing a "Peace Treaty" between them.
The White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow's optimism about an imminent trade deal with China in the coming week could be quickly negated by both his boss, President Trump, and representatives of the Chinese government. So, it is quite possible that the pair will be able to reverse the uptrend and, at least, move to a sideways movement.
Experts' opinions are currently divided 50-50. The situation is similar with the indicators. Therefore, we can assume that the pair is expected to move sideways along the Pivot Point 108.75 in the corridor with the boundaries of 107.80-109.50 for some time. The next support is in the area of 107.00, resistance –110.30;

– cryptocurrencies. If you look at what has happened to bitcoin in 10 years, everything seems to be fine: it has risen in price 100 times during this time. But it does not want to continue to grow. Those who were going to purchase this cryptocurrency as a long-term investment have already done so. And now the market belongs to short-term speculators, who play not only on the rise, but also on the fall. The mantra of such apologists as co-founder of the oldest Chinese crypto exchange BTCC Bobby Lee, that the price of bitcoin will rise to $500 thousand by 2028, does not affect them. The speculators are focused on quick profits, which can only be obtained thanks to the increased volatility of cryptocurrencies and the news that creates this volatility.
Halving of Bitcoin in 2020 will become such a piece of news. In the near future, it will be the hard fork Istanbul, which the creators of Ethereum are going to hold on December 4, 2019. Another piece of news is the launch of regulated bitcoin options on Bakkt, which is also scheduled for early December. These and similar events can cause sharp one-time jumps in quotations.
In our previous review we wrote that, according to Bloomberg analysts, the first cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $8,000 before the end of the year. The height of $12,000 is called as a possible high. As for the high of the year 2020, it is at $16,000. A similar opinion with his colleagues from Bloomberg was previously expressed by the head of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao. According to him, traders and investors in China can ensure the growth of the reference coin at least to such a height.
But this can be prevented by one event. A sensational statement was made by Jack Lee, founder and managing partner of HCM Capital. He believes that the People's Bank of China will issue its own digital currency in two to three months. And it is this currency that investors from China can switch their attention and capitals to.
As for the forecast for the very near future, since the BTC/USD pair has fallen to the boundaries of the side channel of $7,800-8,600, three scenarios are possible here. The first is bearish, according to which the pair will continue to move to the lower border of the channel. 25% of experts vote for it. The same number support the second, bullish, scenario. When it is implemented, the upper limit of the channel $8,600 will act as a support, starting from which the pair will go up. The nearest resistance is $8,815, the next ones are $9,130 and $9,470. And finally, the third scenario. According to it, the $8,600 level will act as a Pivot Point along which the pair will move to the east. This development is supported by the majority of analysts, 50%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

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#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 25 – 29, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Recall that the previous forecast focused on the uncertainty that has been reigning in the markets recently. At that time, the preponderance of the bulls' supporters over the bears was only 10%. 55% of experts voted for the growth of the European currency, against were 45%. As if responding to such a balance of forces, the pair grew slightly on Monday, November 11 and, reaching the level of 1.0900, moved into a sideways trend. It stayed there until Friday, when, due to weak European statistics (PMI) and the speech of the new Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, it went down sharply. However, it could not break through the support of 1.1000 and ended the five-day period at 1.1020.
Ms. Lagarde added more fog and uncertainty to the markets, saying that Europe needed a new system of economic measures and that the European regulator would soon review its strategy. But what this new strategy will be is completely unclear, especially recalling that there is discord in the ECB Governing Council and there is no consensus on the resumption of quantitative easing (QE);

- GBP/USD. The UK is preparing for early parliamentary elections, on which both the situation with Brexit and the further economic situation in the country depend. There is no clarity for now, as in the case of the Euro. Therefore, both bulls and bears are looking for reasons to push the pair in one or another direction, in the economic news.
If we sum up the results of the past week, the victory has remained for the bears. Taking advantage of the fact that the preliminary PMI business activity index in the services sector fell below the critical level of 50.0 and amounted to 48.6, they pushed the pair down to the level of 1.2822. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 1.2835;

- USD/JPY. As already noted, the yen has been falling for almost all autumn, and the pair has been moving up, relying on the MA200 on the four-hour timeframe. At least four attempts to break through this support have ended in failure. And how the fifth attempt will end, we wrote last week, depends largely on the prospects of signing a trade agreement between the US and China. However, despite a lot of optimistic statements, there are no specific results yet. American negotiators seem to be ready for the meeting but are waiting for assurances from the Chinese side that Beijing is ready to commit to the protection of intellectual property and technology, as well as the purchase of agricultural products from the United States. Whether China will do it, and in what form, is a question. And so the fifth attempt to break through the МА200 undertaken in the middle of last week, failed as well. Having fallen to the level of 108.27, the pair turned around and finished the week session slightly above the specified moving average, at the level of 108.63;

– cryptocurrencies. The main "forecast", which most often sounds recently, can be reduced to only two words: "caution" and "pessimism". We hope that traders and investors followed our first advice, because the second one has once again justified itself completely: at the low on Friday November 22, Bitcoin lost almost 20%, falling from $8,500 to $6,820. The reason for such a bearish rally, according to many experts, were miners who began an active sale of their crypto assets. Some of them needed fiat to stay afloat and continue to work, and some, disappointed, just decided to leave the market.
An additional impetus to the sales was given by rumors from Chinese Shanghai about the visit of the police to the office of the Binance crypto exchange.
Top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), amicably followed the "big brother", Bitcoin. As a result, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 15.8%, from $239 billion to $201 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen again. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter is still not even up to 0.5%. All this makes investors think about the onset of a recession in the American economy. Next week we are waiting for the next batch of macroeconomic indicators from the United States, which will either confirm or refute the version about the possible next reduction of the Federal Reserve interest rate in January-February. Moreover, such a reduction may not be "traditional" 0.25%, but twice as much, 0.5%.
Of course, this largely depends on the final results of the fourth quarter and 2019 as a whole. But do not forget that 2020 is the year of the US Presidential election, and the state of the American economy depends on whether Trump will remain in the White House for a second term. For now, under his pressure, the Fed is implementing easing policies step by step and pumping the economy with dollars. A similar situation was in the early 2000s. Then, by lowering the rates, the Fed tried to raise production, and it resulted in a bubble of mortgage lending, which burst, leading to the crisis of 2007-2008.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators are colored red. But in the situation of uncertainty described above, experts do not expect that the pair will still be able to break through the support of 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 also indicates that after one or two unsuccessful attempts to do this, the pair will turn around and go up: first to the resistance of 1.1090, and then even higher, up to the horizon of 1.1175.
Of course, the results of the next round of the US-Chinese trade talks, which Beijing wants to hold before November 28, Thanksgiving In the US, can greatly affect the quotes. 65% of analysts expect that a certain consensus will be reached on this issue by the end of the year, which will lead to the growth of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the zone 1.0800-1.0900;

- GBP/USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12 and a Brexit respite, the pair has been moving in the side channel 1.2780-1.2980 for the fifth week. Trend indicators and D1 oscillators are painted in neutral gray. The forecasts of experts can be called "gray" too (50% to 50%). The hearing of the Inflation Report on Wednesday November 27 is unlikely to push the pair beyond this channel. The situation in the coming week depends much more on the US than on the UK. And the clear progress in the US-China trade talks may give the pair a strong bearish impulse, lowering it to the support of 1.2650;

- USD/JPY. The Fed is pumping the markets with dollar liquidity. But the Bank of Japan has been doing the same for many years in an effort to increase inflation and revive production. At the same time, the interest rate set by the Japanese regulator for the yen is much lower than for the dollar. So the Japanese currency is of interest to investors only as a refuge from financial storms. However, according to the chart, there have been no particularly strong storms since the end of the summer, and therefore the yen is falling, and the curve of quotations is steadily creeping up.
Now there is a consolidation in the zone of 108.60 yen per dollar. But progress in signing a trade agreement between the US and China may push the pair further up ¬ – to the level of 109.50. It is this movement that most experts (65%) expect from it in the near future.
It should be noted that in the medium term, even more analysts (70%) are waiting for the pair to turn south and return to the 105.70-106.70 zone. And at most, these expectations are related to the deterioration of US economic indicators and further quantitative easing by the Fed;

– cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing this forecast, the BTC/USD pair is approximately where it was a month ago, before the "space" takeoff on October 25. Recall that the benchmark cryptocurrency reached $10,500 then, adding 40% at its highest point, due to the news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had supported the blockchain development.
If you look at the chart, it is very clear that, since June 26, Bitcoin has been moving in a downward channel. And if this movement continues, we can expect first a sideways movement along the horizon of $7,300, and then another collapse, now down to $5,000.
The main hope of investors which may be able to support the bitcoin exchange rate is the 2020 halving. According to some of them, after halving in 2020, the rate of this cryptocurrency can soar by 4000%. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%.
At the moment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index of bitcoin has fallen into the lower red quarter and is equal to 23, which corresponds to "extreme fear". According to the creators of the index, this indicator can mean that the market is in a strong panic, and it is probable that the growth will begin soon. After all, large speculators who bought coins, playing for a decrease to earn, must at some point start the game to increase. This, in fact, is the logic of the market.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 09 - 13, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The Euro rose sharply on Monday. This is not to say that no one expected it. 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 predicted the pair's rise to the height of 1.1100. Some may have decided that the growth is associated with the performance of the new head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde. But it is unlikely that this version is correct, since the words of this high-ranking official for the most part did not concern the prospects of monetary policy but were devoted to the prospects of the emergence of the crypto-Euro. Although, the jet of fresh air in the work of the mega-regulator could for sure contribute to the strengthening of the European currency.
The publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the European Union, which showed a small increase, also added to the positive mood. But as for macroeconomic statistics from the United States, it did not make investors happy: ISM business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the services sector showed a decrease. As a result, at its high, the Euro rose to 1.1116.
The end of the week was without surprises. As expected, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created in the US outside of agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), increased by more than 70%. And the markets immediately reacted by strengthening the dollar by 60 points. Then there was a slight rebound up, and the pair froze at 1.1060;

- GBP/USD. It would seem that everything was supposed to freeze in anticipation of the parliamentary elections scheduled for Thursday, December 12. After all, the future of Brexit and the UK in general depend on them. But the British currency was climbing steadily all week, buoyed by predictions of an election outcome, weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the progress of the OPEC + summit. The British currency is strongly correlated with the "black gold", and the decision of oil-producing countries to remove from the market, starting from January 01, 1.7 million barrels per day, also supported the pound. The GBP/USD pair put the final chord of the week at 1.3132, adding more than 215 points in five days;

- USD/JPY. According to the previous week's scenario, the pair should have turned south, reaching the height of 110.00. However, it did it, remaining some 25 points away from this landmark point. And then everything happened exactly according to the forecast: a fall to the support of 109.00, then a pause, and a decline to the next support in the zone of 108.50. Not far from it, at the level of 108.55, the pair met the end of the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. Twitter brought an unexpected piece of news. Rather, it was brought by the CEO of this social network Jack Dorsey, who said that the future of the cryptocurrency industry will be determined by... Africa. Why? Just because Africa... is very poor, and this will be one of the main reasons for the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by the countries of this continent.
There may be some logic to this, but for now, what happens in the digital market is determined by the US, Europe and China. Last week, Europe distinguished itself. It turned out that the European mega-regulator is actively exploring the possibility of launching an official digital Euro. "Our goal," said the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde at a hearing in the European Parliament, " is to create an innovative, reliable and integrated payment system in Europe. This will benefit everyone in the Euro area and significantly strengthen the Euro's position in the world." But then she added that it is necessary to assess all risks from such a step and weigh all the "pros" and "cons" very carefully.
As for the forecast for the past week, it was absolutely correct on the whole. Recall that, according to most analysts, the pair BTC/USD was in for a sideways trend in the range of $7,000-8,000. At the same time, 40% of experts did not rule out attempts to break the upper limit of this channel.
In reality, everything happened like that. Starting near its upper limit, the pair went down to the level of $7,095. Then, there was a sharp upswing on Wednesday 04 December, but the efforts of the bulls were only enough to lift Bitcoin to the horizon of $7,865. This was followed by a sharp reversal, a fall to $7,110, and then a return to the central zone of the channel, accompanied by a decrease in volatility to the range of $7,330-7,465.
Quotes of top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), generally repeated the movements of the "big brother". And despite the fact that they were in the green zone at the end of the working week, the result of seven days can be characterized as moderately negative. Thus, Ripple lost about 3.5% in price, Ethereum lost 5%, and the cost of Litecoin decreased by 9%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The USA and Europe expect three important events during the coming week, these are: the decision on interest rates by the Fed on Wednesday 11 December and the ECB on Thursday 12 December, as well as the scheduled elections to the UK Parliament on Thursday. And if the Fed and the ECB are likely to leave rates at the same level for now, some surprises can be expected from the elections in the United Kingdom. The results of the exit polls will be known late on Thursday, Central European time, and the final results of the elections will be known on Friday the 13th. Then we should expect a strong reaction of the markets.
Despite the fact that Friday the 13th enjoys a bad reputation among superstitious people, the forecasts of experts are not so pessimistic. 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1100, and in case the opponents of a hard Brexit win the elections in the UK, the pair can easily reach the height of 1.1175.
As for the forecasts until the end of December, most analysts believe that the pair will move along the Pivot Point 1.1000, making fluctuations in the range 1.0900-1.1100;

- GBP/USD. As mentioned above, the near future of the pound will be decided on December 12. In the meantime, the experts can only shrug. For those who prefer charts and candlestick patterns to fundamental analysis, let's say that the graphical analysis on D1 draws the pair's growth first to the resistance zone of 1.3175, then to 1.3370, and the New Year at the height of 1.3500. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of D1 oscillators support this forecast. The remaining 15% signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates a possible reversal of the trend down;

- USD/JPY. The pair is now within a strong support/resistance zone, clearly visible since April 2017. We can also talk about the sideway with the support at 108.25, which has started this fall.
Most experts (65%) believe that, despite all efforts, the pair will not be able to break through this support in the near future and therefore will move within the side corridor, which started last October. In their opinion, if we see weak enough macroeconomic indicators in Europe and Latin America, investors' attraction to the dollar as a safe-haven currency will increase. And given the difference in interest rates, the dollar will become much more attractive than the yen, which will move the pair up. The nearest resistance is 109.00, the next is 109.30, the target is 109.75.
Of course, the quotes of this pair can also be influenced by the course of the US-Chinese trade negotiations, and the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. Therefore, a bearish scenario is not excluded, according to which the pair will rush to the minimum on October 03, 106.50. Intermediate supports are in the 107.90, 107.50 and 107.00 zones. 35% of analysts vote for this development, as well as 70% of indicators on D1;

– cryptocurrencies. The most important event of the coming week should be the launch of bitcoin settlement futures on the Bakkt platform on December 09. And it is not for sure that this will help Bitcoin. There is an opinion that this platform is a" hand" of the US Government, able to strangle the crypto market at the right time or, conversely, give it a breath. This version is confirmed by the fact that Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler is already sitting in Washington as a Senator from Georgia.
The pressure of regulators on the digital market and the desire to take it under control does not contribute to the growth of quotations of cryptocurrencies. And the threat of instant large losses simply scares away large investors. According to Bloomberg, this led to the closure of 70 cryptocurrency hedge funds in 2019. The number of newly created crypto-funds has also decreased twice compared to the previous year. So, the predictions of bitcoin apologists that this cryptocurrency will rise again to heights in the region of $20,000 by the end of the year are unlikely to come true.
However, according to Ceteris Paribus experts, almost 600 thousand BTC coins (worth about $5 billion) remain without movement over the past year and a half. This speaks to the hopes of private investors for the rise of Bitcoin. The reason for this may be Halving-2020. According to some "crypto gurus", the Bitcoin rate can jump by 4000% as a result of this halving. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%. However, what happened to the Litecoin, halving of which took place at the end of the summer of 2019, shows that such rosy expectations may be in vain. The LTC quotes indeed began to grow on the eve of this event, but nothing happened on the halving day, and then the LTC/USD pair simply fell down.
Returning to Bitcoin, let's say that the forecasts of most experts for December do not portend the BTC/USD pair anything good. 65% of them see it in the $6,000-6,600 zone. However, once again, a lot depends on how the opening trades on Bakkt are going on. For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponds to the moderate fear of investors.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 16 - 20, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As expected, both the Fed and the ECB have left their interest rates unchanged. Accordingly, the reaction of the markets to their decisions was almost zero. President Donald Trump and the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde were on the side of the dollar last week.
The US President told his followers that "we (i.e. the US) are close to concluding a major deal with China. They want it, just like we do! » That is, if earlier President Trump said that the trade treaty is needed only by Beijing, now it turned out that Washington is also interested in signing it.
Later, Bloomberg reported that Trump, in order to prevent a tariff increase on December 15, has already signed an interim agreement, which, in addition to the rejection of new duties, provides for a reduction in existing tariff rates on many types of Chinese imports as well.
The second driver for the dollar was Christine Lagarde, who reported that the ECB, although it made some adjustments to the forecasts for GDP and inflation for 2020, has in general left in force the current parameters of its monetary policy.
Thanks to these two leaders, the results of the week could be very disastrous for the European currency, if not for the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. The victory of the Conservative party pushed the pound sharply up, and in turn, it pulled the Euro up. As a result, at the maximum, the EUR/USD pair rose to the level of a strong medium-term support-resistance zone at around 1.1200. However, then the balance of powers was almost restored, and the pair finished at 1.1116;

- GBP/USD. Naturally, following the results of the elections, the gap was demonstrated by not only the Euro, but also, first of all, by the pound. The conservative party led by the current British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a steady majority of seats in Parliament, which gave hope that the years of confusion with Brexit will finally end, and on January 31, 2020, the process of Britain's exit from the EU will start.
Such an outcome of the election, in general, had been taken into account by the market. Therefore, after the GBP/USD pair soared by almost 500 points and rose above the level of 1.3500, many players began to close long positions, which was facilitated by the above-mentioned steps of President Trump. As a result, by the end of the trading session, the British currency lost almost 180 points, stopping the fall at 1.3340;

- USD/JPY. While the European and British currencies rose against the dollar, the yen, on the contrary, lost ground. Recall that the majority of experts last week voted for the growth of the pair to the height of 109.75, and this forecast was 100% accurate.
The US and China are almost close to signing a trade agreement, and the US stock market on Thursday 12 December updated the historical high. Investors' interest has once again turned to such risky assets as, for example, stock index futures, causing a sell-off of the Japanese currency, which was losing about 130 points at the maximum. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 109.35;

– cryptocurrencies. By the end of last week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponded to the moderate fear of investors. That's how the market behaved: moderate purchases with more active sales. The BTC/USD pair moved in the range of $7,100-7,700 all week with some superiority of bears, which gradually pressed it to the lower border of this channel. In seven days, Bitcoin lost about 4.5%. Similar dynamics were demonstrated by top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), which generally repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. At first glance, there are a lot of important events ahead of us in the coming week. This is the publication of the PMI Markit of Germany and the EU on Monday 16 December, and the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday, and the publication of the annual data on U.S. GDP on Friday 20 December. However, it is hardly worth waiting for a repeat of the rate hikes, such as those that were caused by the last week's elections in the UK. Some of the experts believe that the pair will be pressured by the success in the US-China trade talks. Others, on the contrary, expect that the pair will continue to move upward for some time by inertia.
It should be noted that 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are still painted green. 85% of experts are also waiting for the pair to continue growing in the near future. However, this growth, in their opinion, will be insignificant. The pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.1200 again and, taking into account the backlash, it may rise to the zone of 1.1225-1.1235. The next resistance is 1.1255. However, then it will face a trend reversal and return to the 1.1000-1.1100 zone. The implementation of this scenario can take one to three weeks, and 65% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 fully agree with this;

- GBP/USD. Over the next five days, the UK's macroeconomic statistics will pour down on us like a cornucopia. On Monday¬, it is Markit Services PMI, on Tuesday it is ILO unemployment rate, on Wednesday - the consumer prices index, on Thursday - the Bank of England interest rate decision and the monetary policy report, on Friday it is the GDP data for the third quarter. That is, there isn't a day without news. But most importantly, the market will wait with bated breath for what Prime Minister Boris Johnson will say and do regarding the launch of the Brexit process. Recall that he still has until January 31, 2020 to ratify the agreement with the European Union in Parliament.
In the meantime, the experts' forecast for the pound looks about the same as for the Euro. Most of them (65%), supported by 90% of indicators on D1, believe that the pair will once again rush to storm the height of 1.3500, which it reached on the night of Thursday 12 December to Friday the 13th. However, it is only 25% believe in the success of such a storm. The remaining 75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis, believe that we will soon see the GBP/USD pair in the 1.3100-1.3200 zone once again. And, in fact, why not? What good is awaiting the UK after leaving the EU? That's the question;

- USD/JPY. 75% of analysts believe that the progress in the US-China trade talks will continue to push the pair up. Additional support will be provided by the growth of the yield spread of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds on the debt market. 85% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this forecast. The nearest resistance is 109.70, the goal is to consolidate in the zone 110.00-111.00.
The remaining 25% of experts believe that the pair will not be able to go beyond the side corridor 108.40-109.70, where it will continue to move at least until the end of the year. A possible reversal of the trend and the return of the pair to the support of 108.40 is also indicated by 15% of oscillators that give clear signals about the pair being overbought. The next support is 108.25;

– cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third and is even down a quarter from the previous week, dropping to the 22 mark. In general, the current situation can be called stagnation. But the crypto market is famous for the fact that after a long lull, a sharp rise follows. Or a fall. After all, most traders come here to earn on the super-volatility of cryptocurrencies.
It does not matter for speculators whether the market is bullish or bearish at the moment. Thus, despite the price decline, the Bitcoin network has continued to expand recently and has now reached a record 28.4 million addresses. This is evidenced by the CoinMetrics data service. A similar dynamic was observed at the end of last year, when Bitcoin was trading at $3,200. At that time, many investors, taking advantage of the fall of the crypto currency, began to actively buy it.
According to the service glassnode, the number of wallets with a thousand or more bitcoins soared to a new high, their owners hope to make a profit, primarily as a result of the halving, which is scheduled for May 2020.
According to Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano, this event can multiply the price of Bitcoin, but its growth will be gradual. "I do not think that the price will soar the day after the halving, but I believe that, starting from the current values, it will rise to $100,000 by December 2021," the entrepreneur predicted.
Recall that as a result of the halving, the size of the reward in the bitcoin network will decrease twice, from 12.5 to 6.25 coins per block. But all this will happen in five months. If we talk about the forecast for the near future, 65% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to decline to the $6,500-6,800 zone. According to the remaining 35% of experts, the pair will attempt to rise above the level of $8,000



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
227
1
34
36
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 23 - 31, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Starting on Monday from the level of 1.1110, the pair went up, as expected by most experts. The market did not react to the initiated impeachment of the US President Trump, and the S&P500 Index once again updated the historical maximum. However, the end of the year is the end of the year and the associated fall in volatility. Therefore, the pair failed to reach the target, the height of 1.1200, and recorded the maximum of the week at 1.1175.
Then everything happened again according to the scenario described by us in the previous forecast: the pair turned around and went south, braking at 1.1110. This was followed by several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, then on Thursday 19 December there was a rebound up on the background of the weak economic statistics from the US, and then again, a return to the 1.1110 zone.
It should be noted that, in addition to the horizontal support, this level coincided with the lower limit of the uptrend, which began on November 29, which is why the bulls stood up for it so fiercely. But their strength was exhausted at the very end of the week, and the support was broken. According to experts, this was facilitated by the decline in quotations for a number of cross-pairs, the release of positive statistics on the US consumer market, as well as the narrowing of the yield spread on US and German government bonds. In addition, at the time of the breakdown, many stop orders placed on long positions worked, which allowed the pair to fall to the level of 1.1065. This was followed by a slight rebound, and it ended the week at 1.1075;

- GBP/USD. Last week was not the most successful for the British currency. The negative dynamics in the debt market, where the yield of UK securities fell in comparison with the bonds of the US and Germany, weighed on the pound. Statistics on the consumer market also disappointed investors: retail sales fell in November at the highest pace for the whole year, by 0.6%. Whatever Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his supporters say, British consumers fear Brexit and therefore limit themselves in spending. The Bank of England contributed to the overall gloomy picture as well by lowering its economic growth forecast.
As a result, the pound moved according to the scenario developed for it by experts for the whole week. Recall that the majority of analysts (65%), supported by 90% of indicators on D1, expected that the GBP/USD pair will once again rush to storm the height of 1.3500, and that this storm will end in collapse. Indeed, on Monday, December 16, the pound went up, but was able to overcome only 85 points, then turned around and continued the fall, which had begun on Friday, December 13.
75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis, voted for this development. According to their forecast, the pair should have reached the 1.3100-1.3200 zone very quickly, which happened on Tuesday. But the fall did not end there, and it was only on Friday 20 December, thanks to positive GDP data for the third quarter (growth of 0.4% instead of the forecast 0.3%), that the pound was able to find support at the level of 1.2990.
This was followed by a rebound up to 1.3080, supported by the adoption of the Brexit Act by the UK Parliament, and again a drop of 100 points. The final chord sounded at the level of 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. The news background on the yen is quite diverse. There is a strong rise in the US Treasury yields, with which the Japanese currency is strongly correlated, and the continuation of the oil uptrend, and hopes for the imminent completion of a comprehensive deal between Washington and Beijing. It is necessary to pay attention to the inflation figures in Japan. At the end of November, it was at the level of 0.5%, that is, it grew by 0.3%, which is, though not powerful, but still a favorable signal for the Bank of Japan and the economy as a whole. The yen reacts as the weathervane to the multidirectional statistics on the state of the American economy as well.
As a result, the most accurate forecast was the one supported by a quarter of analysts, according to which the pair will remain in the side channel 108.40-109.70 until the end of the year. In reality, the channel was even narrower: 109.15-109.70, and the pair ended the trading session in its central zone, at the level of 109.45;

– cryptocurrencies. On Saturday, December 14, the benchmark cryptocurrency went south. More precisely, it did not just go, but flew headlong, updating the six-month low by Wednesday and "losing weight" by more than 11%. According to the main version, voiced by Bloomberg analysts, the fall was caused by the sale by crypto-pyramid PlusToken of bitcoins worth about $2 billion, followed by other coins. The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 9% in just 5 days, and some analysts rushed to put a "death cross" on Bitcoin, giving such a name to the intersection by the 50-day moving average from top to bottom of the 200-day MA).
However, rumors about the death of Bitcoin, as it has repeatedly happened, were greatly exaggerated. On Wednesday evening, it became known that the Bakkt platform demonstrates record volumes of trading in BTC futures. And having found support at the level of $6,470, Bitcoin quickly began to make up for losses, just in a few hours getting $1000 (+15%). After that, the BTC/USD pair returned to where it all started, to the values of December 14.
As for such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), in general, they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency. It is just that the results of the seven-day trip were unprofitable for them. If Bitcoin fully recovered its losses, Ripple lost 12.5% of its value, Ethereum lost 11.5%, and Litecoin lost 10%. This result suggests that investors are getting rid of altcoins, redirecting financial flows towards the first cryptocurrency.


As for the forecast for the coming 10 days, perhaps we will not make a discovery, saying that Christmas and New Year holidays are ahead. In this regard:

- December 24 - Forex trading closes at 17: 00 CET
- December 25 - trading is closed
- December 26 - trading opens at 00: 00 CET
- December 31- trading closes at 17: 00 CET
- 01 January - trading is closed
- 02 January - trading opens at 00: 00 CET

- EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY. With a high probability we expect quite sluggish trading in a narrow range throughout this time. Although, due to the subtlety of the market, emissions in one direction or another are not excluded. Gaps can be expected at the opening of markets after the New Year holidays.
If we talk about the forecasts of experts for the upcoming ten-day period, it is impossible to give preference to either bulls or bears, because the opinions of experts are divided:
- either in half: 50% for the growth and 50% for the fall,
- or equally in three parts: a third for the growth, a third for the decline and a third for a sideways trend.
The forecasts of analytical departments of global banks for the entire year 2020 are much more interesting, we will publish them exactly one week later. Naturally, they are based on fundamental factors. And as for the fans of technical analysis, we have gathered together in one table the indicator readings on the daily (D1) and weekly (W1) timeframes, which, we hope, will help you form an opinion about the main trends and market sentiment.

– cryptocurrencies. Unlike Forex, the crypto market never sleeps. And even if crypto traders celebrate holidays, they do not take their eyes off the trading terminal.
In general, the news background is positive:
- Banking giant Bank of America Merrill Lynch has named the best and the worst assets by investment performance over the past ten years. According to the bank's calculations, $1 invested in the first cryptocurrency in 2010 has now turned into $90,026.
Sweden's Central Bank Riksbank is exploring the possibility of creating a digital Swedish Krona.
The success of Bakkt was mentioned above. And this is a very positive signal for the crypto market, as it suggests that institutional investors (at least some of them), consider the current situation a good one to buy.
- Analysts have given their forecasts of the Bitcoin price for the beginning of 2020. Executives of South Korean cryptocurrency exchanges Bithumb, Korbit and Hanbitco argue that 2020 will be the best year for the crypto market due to demand for cryptocurrencies from institutional investors and people of generation Y (Millennials).
Amsterdam stock exchange analyst Michael van de Poppe is confident that the coin will rise to $8000 in early 2020, and a month after that it will rise to $9500. Alistair Milne, Investment Director of the Altana DS Fund, is also confident in the growth of the Bitcoin value. In his opinion, the coin will become more expensive in the run-up to the halving. In parallel, the sale of altcoins in favor of the main cryptocurrency will continue.
Another point of view is held by the founder of Signal Profits Jacob Kenfield, who predicts a decline in the rate of Bitcoin to $5500. But the worst news for today is that more than 20 thousand BTC tokens remain on the accounts of the PlusToken cryptopyramid. And if it continues to sell, according to Bloomberg forecasts, there is a risk of a fall in the price of Bitcoin down to $4000. However, this is not the limit. Calculations for ASIC miners have shown that Bitmain's S17 is a device in which mining will become unprofitable only if the price of Bitcoin falls below $3600. This means that it is at this level that the main support is situated.
For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponds to the moderate fear of investors.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
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Forecast: Dollar, Euro And Other Currencies In 2020


What to expect from major currency pairs in the New year.

There is no doubt that the vast majority of brokerage companies and private traders consider the EUR/USD pair as one of the main tools for their work. Different sources say that this pair holds from 22% to 32% of the Forex market. It is followed by USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP.

All these currencies, primarily the dollar and the euro, are more or less correlated with the main macroeconomic indicators and political events, which is a disadvantage from the point of view of technical analysis fans and, conversely, an advantage according to the apologists of fundamental analysis. In the first case, just one Twitter post by the US President breaks through the most powerful support/resistance zones, reverses channels and trends, drives indicators crazy and turns Elliott waves into small splashes. In the second case, macroeconomic statistics allow, without breaking heads over graphical figures and candlestick analysis, to give fairly accurate long-term forecasts. For example, forecasts for the next 12 months.

So, what, according to experts, awaits us in the coming year?


Analysts at Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon and a number of other banks reach consensus, predicting a fall in the US dollar in 2020. The main reason for this will be a slowdown in global economic growth, which will increase the demand for riskier assets. Especially so since the US Federal Reserve, on the eve of the presidential election, under pressure from Donald Trump, is likely to continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the existing level.

Financial Times writes that, according to Citigroup experts, the policy of quantitative easing (QE), conducted by the Federal Reserve, and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity can become a catalyst for the dollar depreciation. Analysts of the Swiss Bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world largest investment companies, BlackRock, who expect a moderate decline in the dollar in the next six months, agree with their colleagues from Citigroup.

JPMorgan Chase experts predict the level of 1.14 for the EUR/USD pair at the end of 2020. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch call 1.15. And German Deutsche Bank and French Societe Generale forecasts for the dollar are even more gloomy: they believe that the euro will trade at $1.20 in a year.

According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast of the largest market operators suggests that by the end of 2020, the US dollar will "lose weight" by another 400-500 points, and the EUR/USD pair will rise to the 1.16 zone.

Conspiracy theorists, of course, suspect market manipulation and talk about the fact that bankers want to buy dollar liquidity at the lowest prices, for which they spread "bearish" forecasts. And here it is appropriate to recall the words of Andreas Koenig, head of Global FX in the multinational investment company Amundi Asset Management, that he had heard many times before about the fall of the dollar against the euro, and every time the opposite happened. "I would be very surprised if this consensus came to fruition," he said.

"It is true that the Fed's interest rate of 1.75% is small," says John Gordon, a leading analyst at brokerage NordFX, "but other regulators have zero or negative interest rates at all. Despite rate cuts, trade wars and other problems, the dollar has risen against the euro by more than 10% since February 2018. And if you look back at the past year results, it is clear that for many investors, due to the weakness of the European economy and the problems with Brexit, the dollar has become a safe haven currency. And for Central Banks, it remains the main reserve currency, far ahead of any other assets."

As for other currencies, Goldman Sachs predicts that the exchange rate of the British pound to the dollar by the end of 2020 will reach 1.37.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch also believes that not only the euro, but, first of all, the pound should benefit from resolving the uncertainty with Brexit, resulting in the GBP/USD pair rising to the horizon of 1.39. The falling dollar will also support emerging markets, strengthening the currencies of the countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the quotes of the USD/JPY pair will fall to 103 yen per dollar.

The Canadian and New Zealand dollars will continue to attract interest, and the price of gold will go up.

Leap year 2020 is 12 months, 366 days, and during these days a lot can happen that can disprove any forecasts. The dollar will depend on the domestic situation in the United States, and on what is happening in global markets, not only in America, but also in Europe and Asia. "I think a full-scale USA deal with China will change the rules of the game... It will change everything!"- predicts David Bloom, global FX strategist at HSBC.

Will it change anything? It is not long that is left to find out the answer to this question. In the meantime:
Patience, good luck and fulfillment of the most cherished wishes to you!

Happy New Year, 2020!


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #Forex #forexbrokers #signaltek #cryptocurrency #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
227
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 06 - 10, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Holidays are for people to get distracted for a while from daily problems, plunging into the magic atmosphere of miracle expectation. And miracles happen, and financial markets are no exception, as we have already warned our readers.
In normal times, investors look either towards the riskier stock market, or seek to hide their capital in safe havens, preferring government bonds, gold and safe-haven currencies. But Christmas and New Year are unusual times, and the market is so thin these days that it can be managed even on small volumes. As a result, in the last decade of December, both the S&P500 stock index continues to update historical highs, and gold, along with the yen and the franc, show an impressive growth. And treasury debt obligations are not going to retreat from the won positions. New Year's miracles, that is! But, as you know, there are much less holidays in the year than working days. And the market returns to its normal state this week.
As for EUR/USD, starting from November 29, the pair is slowly moving along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year, 2020, with a gap down. The pair almost got to the bottom of the channel on Friday afternoon January 03, and then the pair returned to the central zone of the channel on a fairly dismal statistics on business activity in the USA (index ISM in manufacturing sector was below expectations and failed to rise above $50) and ended the week in the area of strong support/resistance 1.1160;

- GBP/USD. The week's result of the British pound was close to zero. Starting at 1.3085, it ended the five-day period at 1.3075, losing just 10 points. However, due to its relatively high volatility, it did not deprive traders of the opportunity to profit: its range of fluctuations over these days amounted to more than 230 points;

- USD/JPY. In contrast to the pound, which ended the five-day period with almost zero results, safe-haven currencies are growing rapidly against the dollar. Thus, the yen gained almost 135 points against the "American": starting from the horizon of 109.45, it finished at 108.10;

– cryptocurrencies. The digital asset market, as well as the Forex market, continues to sum up the results of the past year. For example, the online portal ForkLog has compiled a list of the most prominent and influential crypto persons in 2019. The top 10 is headed by the head of the Bitcoin exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao, in the middle of the list is the head of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg and the Telegram creator Pavel Durov, and the top ten is completed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ethereum developer Vitalik Buterin.
Bitcoin, despite all the rate hikes, rose by 110% in 12 months, the S&P500 index rose by 22.8%, and gold added 19% over the same period. The result for the reference cryptocurrency, in general, is quite good, but only for those investors who invested in the coin at the beginning of the year, and not in the mid summer. For the latter, a completely different, sad melody sounds.
Now let's move on to the results of the last week. And here there is nothing to talk about: the same side trend. The pair BTC/USD grows to $7,550 on Dec 29, then drops to $6,900 by 03 January, and then returns to where it started the week in the area of $7,300. In general, it is a complete disappointment for investors. But as for active traders who trade on short timeframes, with a leverage of 1: 50, like with the broker NordFX, the jumps of $650 is a good opportunity to make a profit.
As for the top altcoins, things are also flat here: there is a movement in very narrow side channels with gradual consolidation for a third week running: Ripple (XRP/USD) is around $0.19, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – $130 and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - $42 per coin. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen to $190 billion, and Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is gradually approaching its neutral position (now it is at 38), which, in fact, also indicates a stagnation in the market.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Last week, we summarized the forecasts given for 2020 by analysts at JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and a number of other global banks. Recall that, in general, they reached a consensus, predicting the fall of the dollar against the euro and the growth of the pair to levels from 1.1400 to 1.2000. The main reason was a slowdown in global economic growth, which should increase demand for riskier assets. Especially so since the US Federal Reserve, on the eve of the presidential election, under pressure from Donald Trump, is likely to continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the existing level.
However, there is also an opposite opinion, which is again tied to the US presidential election. It is noted that it is during the election years that the US currency shows particularly good results. In such periods over the past 40 years, the USD index declined only twice. But the euro fell in 9 cases out of 11. So, if you focus on these statistics, the dollar should be bought, not sold. Moreover, for Central Banks, it is still the main reserve currency, far ahead of any other assets.
As for the near future, 55% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators on D1, expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the ascending channel at the level of 1.1240. The next target is 1.1330. The strengthening of the euro over the dollar can be also facilitated by the macroeconomic data, which we will learn next week. So, on Tuesday, January 07, the December value of the ISM business activity index in the service sector will be known, and on Friday, data on the labor market in the United States will be released. And if the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) decreases, according to the forecast, by 40% (from 266K to 160K), this will have a negative impact on the dollar. However, often the market reacts in advance to such predictions, so that immediately at the time of the release of statistics there may not be strong jerks.
In addition to these 55% of bull supporters, there are also 45% of experts who support bearish sentiment. 85% of the indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on the same timeframe side with them. Support levels are 1.1100, 1.1065 and 1.1000;

- GBP/USD. The situation with the pound is again confused and depends on how and what happens to the process of leaving the EU. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed concern that there is little time left for negotiations on the UK's relations with the European Union after Brexit. In her view, the 11-month transition period for negotiations is extremely short and may have to be extended. And her Deputy Frans Timmermans called on the British to immediately return to the bosom of the European family after the divorce.
In the meantime, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the channel 1.3050-1.3215. The goals in case of a breakout are 1.3285, 1.3425 and the December 13 high of 1.3515. Graphical analysis, 15% of trend indicators on D1 and the same number of oscillators that give signals about the pair being oversold agree with this development.
The remaining 40% of analysts and the vast majority of indicators vote for the fall of the pair. The nearest strong support is at 1.2975, the goal is to reach the 1.2825-1.2900 zone;

- USD/JPY. Supported by graphical analysis on D1, 70% of analysts believe that the fall of the pair will stop at the level of 107.80, having fought off from which, the pair will first go to the resistance of 109.25, and then to the maximum values of last December in the area of 109.70.
30% expect that the strengthening of the yen will continue, so the pair will be able to fall to the support of 107.50, and then another 100 points lower.
As for the indicators, 100% of them are colored red on H4 and 85% on D1. Signals of the pair being oversold are given by 15% of oscillators on D1, which is often confirmed by the rapid change of trend;

– cryptocurrencies. Forecasts for the near future are as gray and boring as the charts of crypto pairs. However, the closer to the May halving of Bitcoin, the more green color and optimism of experts appear. 70% of them expect that the quotes will go up sharply. The picture is similar among investors. According to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins were in motion in 2019. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state, in the hope of a future growth.
Of course, there are pessimists among analysts. According to their forecasts, the pair BTC/USD will soon have another fall. The new generation of mining equipment (ASIC S17 and T17) makes this process cost-effective, even if Bitcoin falls to the $3500-4400 zone, and this is where they believe the really strong support is located. But if the pair breaks through it, then we can talk about the end of the 10-year history of the world's first digital currency.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
227
1
34
36
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 13-17, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As you know, life is like a zebra: a black stripe comes after a white one, and vice versa. That was what happened this time as well: after the merry New Year holidays came the anxious expectation of a full-fledged war between the United States and Iran. But, a few days later it became clear that both sides want to avoid a full-fledged conflict, and the tension in the geopolitical field went gradually down, which is clearly visible in the oil prices.
Last week, everything went well for the US dollar at first. The US currency was growing thanks to new record highs in the US stock market and optimistic statements of the Fed's leaders. So, the President of the Federal reserve of Richmond Thomas Barkin said that the country's economy and the labor market in the United States looked strong. And according to Fed Vice President Richard Clarida, the current monetary policy of his organization is fully consistent with the state of the country's economy. According to forecasts, US GDP growth in 2020 may be 2-2.5%, or even more.
Up until Friday, January 10, the dollar was growing in anticipation of strong data from the US labor market. As a result, as expected by 45% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the EUR/USD pair fell to the support of 1.1100, and then by another 15 points. But the data on the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) disappointed the market so strongly (a drop of 43%) that the pair turned sharply north, jumping to the height of 1.1130. It met the end of the trading session at the level of 1.1120;

- GBP/USD. For the third week in a row, the result for the British pound is close to zero. Starting from the horizon of 1.3075, by Tuesday January 07, it reached the height of 1.3210, then fell to the support of 1.3010, turned around again and finished the five-day period at 1.3060, losing only 15 points during this time. However, as before, due to its rather high volatility, the pair did not deprive traders of the opportunity to earn: the weekly scope of its fluctuations amounted to 200 points;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair was 100% accurate. Recall that, in the opinion of the majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, the pair's drop had to stop at the level of 107.80, having rebounced from which it was supposed to go to the 109.25 resistance, and then to the last December highs in the area of 109.70.
In reality, on Monday, January 06, the pair found the bottom at 107.76, turned around and went up. On Wednesday, the yen made another attempt to gain a foothold below the level of 107.00, however, it was unsuccessful as well, and by the end of the week, the pair, as expected by experts, reached the set height of 109.70. This was followed by a small correction, and the final chord sounded at the level of 109.50;

– cryptocurrencies. Indeed, it seems that a number of investors are considering Bitcoin as a financial haven. So, against the background of the confrontation between the US and Iran, the reference cryptocurrency reached a month-and-a-half high, breaking some important resistance levels. Fake information about a sharp increase in the capitalization of stablecoin Tether (USDT) on CoinMarketCap by $500 million also contributed to the growth. As a result, the cost of BTC soared to the height of $8,450 per coin.
The analysis of what happened last week suggests that the crypto market quotes begin to be increasingly influenced by algorithmic trading. Reacting only to the momentum of the price, which in this case was up, the robots began buying coins, giving an additional force to this momentum.
Soon after it became known about the reduction of tension around Iran, and that the information about $500 million is just a fake, the price of Bitcoin went down, dropping to $7,765, then went up again, reaching the height of $8,100 by the evening of Friday, January 10.
As a result of these events, the growth of Bitcoin, starting from January 03, was at a maximum of about 17%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – the same 17%, Ripple (XRP/USD) – 22%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - 27%. At the same time, the total capitalization increased by 10%, and the Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is another three points closer to its neutral position, reaching 41.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved on an upward channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year 2020 with a gap down. On January 08, it broke through the lower border of the channel at the level of 1.1125, but due to negative data on the labor market in the United States, the bears could not consolidate their success, and the pair finished the week session almost at the level of the breakdown.
Will it return to the limits of the ascending channel? 60% of experts do not think so. In their opinion, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and the pair is expected to decline to the zone of 1.1040-1.1065, the next goal is 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and the majority (70%) of trend indicators on D1 agree with this development. The readings of trend indicators on H4 and oscillators on H4 and D1 can be considered neutral at the moment.
According to the forecasts of the remaining 40% of analysts, the EUR/USD pair will not be able to break through the support at the level of 1.1100, and it will return at least to the central line of the ascending channel, which will be in the zone of 1.1240.
Of course, the trends of the coming week may be affected by the escalation of tension around Iran. But no extra surprises should probably not be expected from the publication of macroeconomic indicators. On Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, data on the US consumer market will be published. On January 16, we will also learn the values of the German HICP consumer price index, which is projected to remain unchanged. The report on the ECB's monetary policy meeting may be more interesting, it will also be published on Thursday 16 January;

- GBP/USD. The UK is less than three weeks away from parting with the European Union. According to Bloomberg, to date, Brexit has already cost the country $170 billion, and by the end of 2020, London will lose another $90 billion. The annual economic growth has halved from 2% to 1%. The British economy is now 3% smaller than it could be if the relations with the EU had remained at the same level. The UK economy is lagging behind the G7 countries and, according to some economists, it has a long way to recover.
In the near future, the pound is highly likely to still move in a fairly wide side channel 1.2900-1.3200 with a Pivot Point in the zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the same time, according to 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of indicators on H4 and D1, the pair will continue to move to its lower border in the coming week. Supports are 1.3010, 1.2970 and 1.2900.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair, on the contrary, will break away from the central zone and is likely to reach the December 31, 2019 high at the height of 1.3285. According to the indications of graphical analysis, it may take about four or five days, after which it will return to the Pivot Point;

- USD/JPY. Last week, the pair not only returned to the borders of the medium-term side channel 108.40-109.70, but also reached its upper border. Although 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators are colored green, only 25% of experts believe that the pair will be able to rise to the height of 110.70. The majority of analysts (75%) side with the bears, as well as 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pair is overbought. Supports are109.20, 108.75 and 108.40. Reaching the last week's lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. We have already written that, according to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins in 2019 were in motion. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state. Similar figures were received by Delphi Digital. According to its data, at least 59% of bitcoins purchased in the second half of 2017 have not moved anywhere. That is, their holders did not sell their cryptocurrency even in December 2017, when BTC soared to $20,000 on some trading platforms. Such data suggests that a stable layer of so-called holders has formed in the cryptosphere, who do not part with their coins even when the market is growing aggressively.
Perhaps they are waiting for 2040, when, according to the calculations of Benjamin Cowen, the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million. According to Cowen, the history of the main cryptocurrency price shows that the market cycles are getting longer: it took 2.5 years to reach the first peak and 4 years to reach the second peak. Extrapolating the model of logarithmic regression to the price of Bitcoin, the expert suggests that it would take about 5.5 years to reach the next peak (after the peak of December 2017), and in 2023 the price of Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark. And the Bitcoin of $1mln cannot be earlier than 2040.
At the same time, of course, there is another opinion, according to which, under pressure from regulators, Bitcoin will go into oblivion, and it will be replaced by state and regional digital money. The ECB has started thinking about developing its own cryptocurrency, the BRICS countries are contemplating a single cryptocurrency and the Bank for International settlements has already held the first summit of G20 Central bankers, which discussed the idea of a global cryptocurrency.
But all this is a matter of the distant future. In the meantime, the highs and lows of the past week allow us to say that the BTC/USD pair has moved to a new level of $7,765-8,450 with a Pivot Point in the $8,000-8,100 zone. At the same time, only 30% of analysts believe that it will be able to stay in this corridor, while 70% expect it to fall to the $7,000-7,500 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
 

Mark NordFX

Active Trader
Apr 30, 2018
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 20 - 24, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached the upper limit of the channel at 1.1240, and then changed direction and on January 08, it broke through the lower limit of the channel at 1.1225. "Will it return to its limits?"– we asked this question last week, to which the majority of experts (60%) answered with a firm "no". And they turned out to be right: Until Thursday, January 16, the bulls tried to do this, but then their strength weakened, and the pair went down sharply.
Even the signing of the "first phase" trade agreement between the US and China did not help the bulls. According to this document, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of American goods and services by about $200 billion in the next two years, and Washington, for its part, promised to lower the duty on Chinese imports worth $120 billion to 7.5% and not introduce new fees.
It should be noted that, in general, this event had already been taken into account by the markets, but still caused a further increase in the US stock indexes and a slight decline in the dollar. Investors continued to reform assets, preferring shares rather than money.
However, the fall of the dollar and the EUR/USD pair was soon stopped due to the publication of the December ECB meeting minutes and the retail sales data in the United States.
In the first case, the management of the European mega-regulator announced that it is not going to raise the key interest rate until the inflation approaches the 2% mark. Moreover, the ECB did not rule out the possibility of moving the rate from the current zero level to the negative zone. As for the second factor, the retail trade volume in the United States increased from -0.1% to + 0.5%, and, as you know, consumer spending accounts for more than 65% of the US GDP. As a result, the euro began to lose its positions against the dollar, and the pair ended the trading session in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of 1.1100, at the level of 1.1090;

- GBP/USD. This pair showed similar dynamics to the EUR/USD, but, as usual, with a much larger scale. So, if the difference between the week low and high for the EUR/USD was just over 85 points, this value was twice as high for the British currency.
The active sale of the pound on January 17 was caused by the report on the UK retail sales for December. The monthly indicator was in the negative area, and the annual indicator was three times less than the forecast value. As a result, at the end of the week, the pound fell to the January 09 low, and ended the five-day period at 1.3015 - exactly where, according to most experts, the medium-term Pivot Point (1.3000-1.3050) of this pair is located;

- USD/JPY. 25% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators, voted for the pair to rise to the level of 110.70. It did go up, but the pair's growth was stopped at 110.30. Despite the fact that the yen lost only about 80 points to the dollar during the week, this can be considered a significant event, since it overcame the psychologically important level of 110.00. Recall that after passing the mark of 29.000, the Dow Jones index confidently went up, and it is possible that the same thing will happen with the USD/JPY pair;

– cryptocurrencies. Every Wednesday, analysts of NordFX brokerage company publish weekly reviews of the cryptocurrency market on NordFX's Facebook page, Twitter channel, and other social networks. In another such review on Wednesday, January 15, it was suggested that the cost of BTC in February has all the chances to rise to the level of 9,5 thousand dollars. Increased correlation with gold as well as various external factors will allow the main coin to add at least $1000 per month. Among these factors, first of all, the use of bitcoin as a safe haven asset should be noted. A clear proof of this phenomenon was the growth of the main cryptocurrency against the background of escalating tensions around Iran.
On Tuesday last week, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced the successful launch of a new financial instrument, the option for Bitcoin, which allowed the BTC/USD quotes to reach a landmark level of $9,000 on Friday, January 17. Thus, the pair's growth over the past two weeks has exceeded 22%.
Altcoins also soared in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. Ripple (XRP/USD) showed an increase of 25%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – 30%, and the most impressive was the strengthening of Litecoin (LTC/USD): its growth was about 50%. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 14.5% and reached $245 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. For three weeks in a row, the pair is moving down, the euro has fallen by about 240 points. The vast majority of indicators are now red not only on H4, but also on D1. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south. The nearest support is 1.1065, the bears' target is 1.1000.
At the same time, some of the oscillators already give active signals about the pair being oversold. 60% of experts also look up. In their opinion, the pair will try once again to return to the limits of the medium-term ascending channel, which started in early December 2019. The nearest resistance is 1.1150. The targets are 1.1200 and 1.1240; The pair's growth may be helped by the outflow of capital to the stock market, provoked by the decline in tensions in trade relations between the US and China. This reduced the probability of a recession in the United States to 24%, which is the lowest rate in the last eight months.
Monday, January 20, is a day off in the United States, but it is at this time that the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on the interest rate, which is currently 4.15%. In addition, other events are of interest. On Tuesday, January 21, the German business sentiment Index will be published. According to forecasts, it may fall from 10.7 to 4.3 units, which may lead to some weakening of the European currency. On Thursday, the ECB's decision on the interest rate will be announced, and a press conference of the European regulator's management will also be held. And on Friday, January 24, we are waiting for a whole series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole;

- GBP/USD. Two macro indicators will help to assess the state of the UK economy, such as the ILO unemployment rate, which will be released on Tuesday, and the Markit business activity index, being published on Friday 24 January. However, in the run-up to the upcoming Brexit, they are unlikely to have a serious impact on the formation of trends for this pair.
The pair finished the previous week in the mid-term Pivot Point zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the time of writing the forecast, just as in the case of the euro, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow, 40% – to fall. Indicators, especially oscillators, look very versatile. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates first the pair's growth to the level of 1.3120, and then a fall to the horizon of 1.2770.
Support levels are 1.2955, 1.2900, 1.2825 and 1.2770. Resistance levels are 1.3120, 1.3210 and 1.3285;

- USD/JPY. Here, everything points to a slight advantage of the bulls, who will try to keep the pair above the 110.00 mark and move it as high as possible from this border. Thus, 55% of analysts, 70% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate a gradual growth of the pair. The nearest strong resistance level is 110.75, and the next one is 100 points higher.
15% of experts have given a neutral forecast, and 30% have voted for the fall of the pair. The largest number of signals about the pair being overbought have been given by oscillators on D1. The main support level is 109.70. If it breaks, the pair may fall to the zone of 109.00, and then to the horizon of 108.40. Reaching the January 06-08 lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is still unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. Finally, it happened: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and risen to 54, approaching the zone called "Greed". Is it good or bad? According to the index developers, it can be dangerous to open short positions at this moment. And what about the long ones?
65% of analysts believe that the upward momentum of the BTC/USD pair has not yet been exhausted and it is able to gain a foothold in the $9,000-10,000 zone.
An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of experts. Agreeing that the situation is somewhat similar to 2017, they draw attention to the fact that, starting from June 2019, we are seeing a series of decreasing highs: $13,765 on June 26, $13,170 on July 10, $12,320 on August 06, $10,480 on October 26. And it is possible that $9,000 will be the next local high, followed by another collapse.
But for now, the market is full of optimism, and the predictions of all sorts of crypto enthusiasts are breaking all thinkable and unthinkable records. The most modest is the forecast of the analytical firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, which has stated that in the coming year, Bitcoin is highly likely to bring investors more than 100% of profits. According to the Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, the most important factors that will contribute to the growth of the price of the first cryptocurrency are halving, geopolitical risks and the US presidential election.
The most "space" forecast was given by Blockstream CEO Adam Back. He is convinced that the dreams of Bitcoin worth $100 thousand and even $10 million are not so far from reality. Back has commented on the idea of one of the leading representatives of the cypherpunk movement, Hal Finney, who is historically considered the second developer of Bitcoin, after Satoshi Nakamoto. Finney suggested "as a thinking experiment" to imagine that Bitcoin has become the dominant payment system in the world. "The total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the world's wealth. Current estimates of household assets around the world that I have found range from $100 to $ 300 trillion. If there are 20 million coins, the value of each of them will be about $10 million, " Finney wrote. Beck noted that due to the rising dollar inflation, " this is closer than it seems." But the crypto prophet did not specify how much closer.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin