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USDCAD - A fall is possible​

On the weekly chart the downward correctional wave of the higher level 4 develops, within which the wave (C) of 4 forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (C) has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave 2 of (C), and the third wave 3 of (C) has started.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will fall to the area of 1.2374 – 1.201. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3224.

 

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USDCHF - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the first wave (1) of 5 forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (1) has formed, and a local correction has ended as the second wave 2 of (1), within which the wave c of 2 has developed.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will fall within the wave 3 of (1) to the area of 0.92 – 0.8916. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9889.

 

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GBPUSD - quotes have renewed the minimum of 2020​

Members of the US Federal Reserve are unanimous in their opinion that the main interest rate should be further increased, and already at the September meeting, the value can be adjusted immediately by 75 basis points and brought to 3.75 – 4% next year. The regulator's policy implies a reduction in the balance sheet and a tightening of monetary policy to control record inflation and bring it to a neutral indicator of 2% YoY. The US swaps in the market place an 80% chance of a 75 bps rate hike, and the market is pricing hawkish rhetoric from the financial authorities ahead of time.

The long-term downtrend for the GBPUSD instrument is likely to continue, and for this, the “bears” need to break the 2020 low at 1.144. After consolidation below it, the next sales target will be 1.13; if it is held, an upward correction with the targets 1.1695 and 1.1770 will begin.

The medium-term trend remains downward. Last week the traders broke through the target zone 2 (1.1572–1.1536), and the next sell target is zone 3 (1.1212–1.1176), while the key resistance is shifting to 1.1801–1.1765. If reached, it will be possible to consider new short positions with the first target at the current week's low of around 1.1410.

Resistance levels: 1.1695, 1.1768 | Support levels: 1.144, 1.13​

 

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EURUSD - Market awaiting ECB interest rate decision​

Thus, the Q2 EU economy increased by 0.8%, which exceeded the forecasted 0.6%: gross domestic product (GDP) growth amounted to 4.1% YoY compared to 5.4% in the previous period. Nevertheless, it was higher than preliminary estimates of 3.9%, allowing the European Central Bank to continue tightening monetary policy parameters without fear of a possible recession. At the moment, analysts expect an interest rate hike of 75 basis points from 0.5% to 1.25%, but this forecast was made without considering yesterday's GDP data, which means that the agency can act more aggressively by adjusting the value by 100 basis points.

The American currency did not stay at absolute highs for a long time, and by the end of yesterday's trading fell below 110 in the USD Index and is now trading around 109.7. The main reason for the negative dynamics of the asset was the disappointment of investors in mortgage interest rates: the indicator almost reached an absolute maximum of 6%, amounting to 5.94%, and against this background, demand for mortgages in the United States fell to a minimum in 22 years. The index of the number of mortgage applications fell to 258.1 points from 705.6 points at the beginning of the year, and the downward trend continues.

The trading instrument is moving toward the support line within the global downward channel. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.007, 1.037 | Support levels: 0.9862, 0.965​

 

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USDJPY - Yen is holding near record lows​

The pressure on the yen continues to come from the prospect of the Bank of Japan maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, while the US Federal Reserve intends to continue its aggressive approach in raising interest rates to fight inflation that has reached forty-year highs, while leaving recession risks moderate. Representatives of the American regulator are likely to correct the value by 75 basis points already at the September meeting. In addition, investors drew attention to the speech of Japanese Finance Minister Sunichi Suzuki, who expressed concern about the unilateral sharp fall in the national currency and announced his readiness to intervene in the markets if the situation requires it. However, official comments were not enough to win back the fall of the yen against the background of the active strengthening of the dollar.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding; however, it fails to catch the development of "bullish" sentiments. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, being in the overbought area for a long time, shows a tendency to decrease, reflecting the risks of the US dollar being overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 145, 146, 147 | Support levels: 143.68, 142.5, 141.5, 140.78

 

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American Express - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) formed, and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave 4 of (5). Now, the fifth wave 5 of (5) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 5 has formed, and a local correction has ended as the second wave (ii) of i of 5.

If the assumption is correct, the asset will grow to the area of 183.5–199.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 146.38.

 

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Gold - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum and the fifth wave (5) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) has formed, a local correction has ended as the second wave ii of 1 of (5) and the third wave iii of 1 of (5) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow within the wave iii of 1 to the area of 1857.25 – 1910.3. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1687.79.

 

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NZDUSD - Candlestick Analysis​

H4
On the four-hour chart, at the support level of 0.6031, there is a formation of a reversal Bullish Engulfing candlestick analysis pattern, signaling a change in the balance of power towards buyers, as well as a Gravestone Doji pattern, which, as a rule, appears at the top and is reversal. It can also be fixed at the base, but for this it is necessary to obtain additional confirmation. In the current situation, the likely scenario is the growth of the asset to the resistance level of 0.6172, overcoming which will allow the "bulls" to head higher to the range of 0.6453–0.6703. An alternative scenario is likely if the "bears" break through the key support level of 0.6031, and the price may drop to the area of 0.5849–0.5622.

D1
The daily chart shows the formation of two Hammer figures, which are reversal and signal that the price has reached the bottom. In this case, long positions can be opened after overcoming the resistance level of 0.6172, when the "bulls" test it. If the buyers fail to hold the level of 0.6031, the negative dynamics may intensify up to the level of 0.5622.

Support levels: 0.6031, 0.5849, 0.5622 | Resistance levels: 0.6172, 0.6453, 0.6703​

 

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Crude Oil - The price is in a correction; a fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave c of 2 develops. Now, the fifth wave (v) of c is forming, within which the wave iii of (v) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, Crude Oil price will fall to the area of 77.5 – 62.73. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 97.6.

 

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GBPUSD - The instrument is moving within the global downward channel​

Investors are evaluating the announcement of the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss on the abolition from next month of indexation of electricity bills, which will now not exceed 2.5K pounds a year. She also stated the need to expand the sources of electricity supply through increased oil and gas production in the North Sea. Although households have taken the initiative of the official positively, for the economy as a whole, this may become a new problem since 130 – 150 B pounds annually will need to be allocated to finance such a measure. Some experts suggested that these funds would be raised through government loans, which would then be repaid through gradual tariff increases over two years.

In the UK, national mourning has begun in connection with the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The heir to the throne was her son, Prince Charles of Wales, who will be officially proclaimed King Charles III on September 10. The country may enter a new era of change, and it is not yet known how actively the new monarch will be involved in the state's political affairs.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, reversing towards a local increase. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range narrows slightly, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars.

Resistance levels: 1.1652, 1.2 | Support levels: 1.14, 1.115​

 

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USDJPY - The yen develops a "bullish" momentum​

The devaluation of the Japanese currency reached such limits that any more or less positive event provoked the purchase of an asset. Yesterday, statistics recorded the rapid growth of the Japanese economy in the second quarter: the indicator added 0.9% instead of the 0.7% expected by analysts, while on an annualized basis, gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated to 3.5% from 2.2% earlier against the background of preliminary estimates of experts at 2.9%. Thus, the current policy of the financial authorities not only does not harm economic development but also does not provoke a significant increase in inflation, which is currently at 2.6%. Against this backdrop, Japan is likely to become the only state where a policy of negative rates is being implemented.

The trading instrument is moving as part of a global uptrend, marking a local downward correction, to which technical indicators do not yet react: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 144.1, 146.5 | Support levels: 141.7, 138.92​

 

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Silver - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower-level v of C of (2) is developing, within which the wave (iii) of v, and the local correction as the wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will fall to the area of 17 – 15.8. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 20.83.

 

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AUDUSD: consolidation after reaching local highs in August​

The AUDUSD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics during the Asian session, consolidating near 0.6830. Investors are trying to predict the situation in the market after many currencies showed a confident upward rally against the US dollar at the end of last week. So, for only one trading session on Friday, September 9, the Australian dollar recovered to the local highs of August 31.

At the same time, traders were disappointed by the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics from China, where, in particular, a decrease in inflation in August by 0.1% from 0.5% last month was recorded, while the growth rate adjusted from 2.7% to 2.5% YoY with preliminary estimates of experts at 2.8%, which is a signal of a slowdown in the national economy.

Following the publication by the analytical company Impact Economics and Policy of information about the inflated costs of post-COVID rehabilitation of citizens in the amount of 3.6B US dollars, the Australian authorities launched a parliamentary inquiry to determine the exact number of people who need medical care after an infection. In particular, according to the information provided, taking into account weekly expenses, which amount to about 100.0M Australian dollars, the losses of the national budget for the year amount to 5.2B Australian dollars. As a result, the authorities will submit a report that will collect expropriated treatments and determine whether those who have been ill will be able to receive payments from the state.

On Thursday, Australian investors are focused on the report on the national labor market for August, and analysts predict an increase in employment by 50.0K after falling by 40.9K last month.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse in the horizontal plane: the price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD is growing, maintaining a relatively strong buy signal and above the signal line. Stochastic shows a confident upward direction, but at the moment, it is rapidly approaching its highs, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6853, 0.69, 0.695, 0.7 | Support levels: 0.680, 0.675, 0.67, 0.665​

 

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The Home Depot​

On the daily chart, the correction is developing within a wide corridor with dynamic boundaries of 350 – 290.

On the four-hour chart, after reaching the support line, the quotes reversed upwards, breaking the initial correction level of 23.6% Fibonacci around 298. Holding the trading instrument above it is a key factor for the continuation of the upward trend, the target of which is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 315.

Technical indicators are weakening the sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range narrows actively, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, trading in the sell zone, forms new rising bars.​

 

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USDCAD - Candlestick analysis​

H4​

On the four-hour chart, under the resistance level of 1.3214, there is the formation of Hanging man and Shooting star reversal models of candlestick analysis, as well as the appearance of the Three black crows trend continuation pattern at 1.302. At the opening of the trading session, the “bulls” tried unsuccessfully to restore their positions, which is confirmed by the “Bearish” belt hold figure. However, in the current situation, the continuation of the downward dynamics of the asset to the support level of 1.2960 is likely, the breakdown of which allows the “bears” to head lower to the area of 1.2661− 1.2322. If the buyers hold the support level of 1.2960 and the price reverses upwards, the growth to the resistance level of 1.3214 is expected, the breakout of which will become a catalyst for the movement to the area of 1.3412−1.3729.

D1​

On the daily chart, under the resistance level of 1.3214, a series of Shooting star and Hanging man reversal candlestick patterns are formed, which signal that the price has reached the local high and the market is under the control of the “bears.” Also, the Three black crows downtrend continuation model has formed, and in this situation, most likely, a further decline in the asset in the range of 1.2960–1.2322 is expected.

Support levels: 1.2960, 1.2661, 1.2322 | Resistance levels: 1.3214, 1.3412, 1.3729​

 

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USDCHF - Franc seized the initiative in the pair​

At the end of last week, unemployment data was published: the figure has been holding at 2.0% for the third consecutive month, which is the average for Switzerland, recorded even before the coronavirus pandemic. The manufacturing sector corrected by –0.5% after seven quarters of growth, primarily due to falling exports in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Analysts suggest that in August, the producer price index will add 0.1%, significantly yielding to the early summer indicator of 1.0–1.2%, while the value may continue to correct and consolidate below 6.3% YoY, reflecting the second month of negative dynamics in a row.

Despite achieving 108.5 points in the USD Index, the US dollar is trading above the average value at the beginning of the year. As for the local dynamics, it will completely depend on tomorrow's publication of data on consumer prices. Analysts assume that the energy component of inflation will weaken its influence, and the indicator will drop from 8.5% to 8.1%, while the core value, which does not consider fuel and food prices, will adjust from 5.9% to 6.1%.

On the daily chart, the price is trading within a downwards corridor, and technical indicators are already ready for the next reversal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the buying zone, is ready to cross the transition level.

Support levels: 0.9539, 0.9412 | Resistance levels: 0.9620, 0.977​

 

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Dow Jones - Dynamics in the bond market hinder the growth of the index​

Due to the lack of fundamental news, the focus of investors is still on the message from the manufacturer of construction and mining equipment Caterpillar Inc. on the settlement of a dispute with the US Internal Revenue Service relating to the payment of fees totaling 2.4B dollars by the Swedish division of the company. The proceedings lasted more than a year, and investors will finally be able not to fear that the issuer's debt burden will increase since all penalties have now been lifted.

Nevertheless, the key factor influencing the quotes of the Dow Jones index will soon be the dynamics in the bond market. Already, auctions will be held for the placement of three-month, six-month, three-year, and ten-year treasury notes and bills. Given the current high bond prices, there is no doubt that rates in all categories will significantly exceed previous performance. Thus, the last placement rate on ten-year notes was 2.755%, and now they are traded above 3.34%. The growth of yield is an unconditional negative signal for the stock market, rapidly losing its investment attractiveness.

The trading instrument shows corrective dynamics without a specific direction. Technical indicators continue to hold a sell signal, which periodically weakens: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range remains quite wide, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new rising bars in the sell zone.

Support levels: 31813, 30990 | Resistance levels: 32557, 33300​

 

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BTCUSD - The medium-term trend has changed to an uptrend​

The "bears" failed to break through 18500 down and update the June low in the BTCUSD pair. The weakness of sellers is due to the strengthening of the positions of risky assets against the backdrop of a downward correction in the US dollar exchange rate.

Investors have begun to re-examine alternative means of investment, including cryptocurrencies. So, on September 4, the BTC hash rate was 298.5 EH/s, renewing the previous high of August 280 EH/s, which indicates that miners continue to introduce new capacities, thereby increasing the security and stability of the network.

Meanwhile, against an intensifying sanctions policy against the national economy, the Russian authorities announced the need to legalize cross-border transactions using digital instruments. According to Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev, the department is now ready to allow residents of the country to open cryptocurrency wallets. He also pointed out that the positions of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia regarding mining activities began to converge, and already in the autumn session, the State Duma could pass a law that would regulate this segment. Recall that at the end of last month, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin proposed using digital currencies in foreign trade (particularly when importing and exporting goods) as an alternative to existing means of payment.

The impossibility of breaking through the support level of 18500 led the instrument to grow by 20%, and now the target for the movement of quotes is 25000. If this level is held, the fall of "digital gold" will continue, and the June low of 17670 is likely to be renewed. Otherwise, the cryptocurrency will continue to strengthen with the targets at 27444 and 32100.

The medium-term trend has changed to an uptrend. Currently, the price has consolidated above the resistance level of 21600.00, which suggests an upward movement to the area of 22700. The breakout of 22700 will allow the quotes to strengthen to 24200.00 and 24600.00.

Resistance levels: 24900, 27444, 32100 | Support levels: 18500, 13200​

 

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USDCHF - Candlestick analysis​

H4​

On the four-hour chart, a long-term downtrend is recorded. At the moment, above the level of 0.9568, a "bullish" Hammer pattern is being formed, which signals a likely reversal of quotes, and two more reversal patterns have appeared: the Inverted Hammer and the Bullish Engulfing one. Quotes of the asset are consolidating above the key support level of 0.9485, and the pressure of the "bears" is still visible. However, if the "bulls" manage to stay above this level, then, most likely, it will be possible to observe a small uptrend to the resistance level of 0.9568, after which the correction will take a reversal character, and the price will continue to recover higher to the area of 0.9694–0.9840. If the buyers fail to hold the key support level, one should expect an increase in negative dynamics to the level of 0.9222.

D1​

The daily chart shows the formation of the Three Black Crows trend continuation pattern, which indicates strong pressure on the price from sellers. In the current situation, a short upward correction to the level of 0.9568 and a further reversal of the price back to the support level of 0.9485 is possible, the overcoming of which will allow the "bears" to go lower to the range of 0.9366 – 0.9222.

Support levels: 0.9485, 0.9366, 0.9222 | Resistance levels: 0.9568, 0.9694, 0.984​

 

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GBPUSD - The pair is in a correction and may grow.​

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level V develops, within which the wave (1) of V formed. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (1) has ended, and an upward correction has started as the wave (2) of V, within which the wave i of A of (2) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.2504 – 1.2854. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1387.