USD/CAD Analisis

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Dmitriy Enrst, Jun 1, 2015.

  1. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    Should it fail to hold 1.3030, nearly six month old ascending trend-line support, at 1.2950-45 currently, becomes pivotal to stop the pair’s south-move while consecutive decline below which can find 38.2% Fibo, near 1.2870, and the 1.2770-50 support-zone as following downside levels.
     
  2. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    In the bigger picture, we'll remain cautious on medium term topping between 1.3063 and 61.8% retracement of 1.6196 to 0.9056 at 1.3469. And fucus will stays on 1.2834 resistance turned support. Sustained break will add more credence to the case of reversal and should at least bring deeper fall to 1.1919 support. That is close to 38.2% retracement of 0.9633 to 1.3456 at 1.1996. However, with 1.2834 support intact, the up trend could still extend.
     
  3. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    Some consolidations could be seen in USD/CAD as it upside momentum.. But further rally is expected as long as 1.3315 support holds. As the larger up trend has just resumed, the pair should now target 61.8% projection of 1.1919 to 1.3456 from 1.2830 at 1.3780 next.
     
  4. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    The USD/CAD pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Tuesday, forming a rather neutral candle. However, the market is most certainly in an uptrend and any pullback at this point in time should be looked at as potential value in the US dollar. With the FOMC Statement coming out later today, it is likely that we’ll see quite a bit of volatility in this pair. The 1.35 level below is support as far as we can see, and we essentially think of it as the “floor” in this market right now. We buy pullbacks, and of course breakouts to the upside as we believe this market will continue to go to the 1.40 level.
     
  5. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    USDCAD's upward movement from 1.2831 extended to as high as 1.40000. Further rise could be expected after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 1.4500 area. Support is now at 1.3650, as long as this level holds, the uptrend will continue.
     
  6. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    The USD/CAD pair went back and forth during the day on Monday, touching the 1.40 level again. However, that area continues to elude the bullish traders out there, so having said that it looks as if we will have to pull back and try to build up momentum in order to finally break out. We have no understand selling, and believe that any pullback at this point in time should represent value in the US dollar. As long as the oil markets continue to look very bearish, this pair should continue to go higher over the longer term.
     
  7. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    USDCAD broke below the upward trend line on daily chart, indicating that the uptrend from 1.2831 had completed at 1.4689 already. Range trading between 1.3800 and 1.4689 could be seen over the next several weeks. Key support is at 1.3800, as long as this level holds, the fall from 1.4689 could be treated as consolidation of the long term uptrend from 0.9406 (Jul 26, 2011 low), one more rise towards 1.5000 is still possible after consolidation.
     
  8. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    The USD/CAD pair fell rather significantly during the course of the day on Wednesday, slicing through the 1.40 level. The market is currently testing the 1.38 level as we write this, and the end of the day we believe that this market will more than likely continue to go much lower, perhaps reaching towards the 1.35 level given enough time.
     
  9. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Currently development mildly raised the chance of medium term topping. Deeper fall would be seen to next key support zone at 1.3456, with channel support now at 1.3455.
     
  10. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    The indicators of the daily chart are however still well negative for now but still showing potential positive reversals; those of the s/t charts are instead still in positive territory supporting further consolidation/ correction. In the hourly chart we started seeing small bearish divergences supporting a positive tone. We prefer however waiting for further confirmations as well as a decent correction that we want to try to buy but only below 1,38 for now
     
  11. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    The USD/CAD pair fell during the course of the day on Tuesday, but found enough support near the 1.38 level to turn things back around and form a bit of a hammer. However, the 1.40 level above is going to be resistive based upon the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant number, and with that we need to clear the area in order to start buying. Ultimately, the market should continue to go higher given enough time but we are going to have to wait until we break above there in order to continue buying.
     
  12. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    USD/CAD's fall from 1.4689 continued last week and too out 61.8% projection of 1.4689 to 1.3638 from 1.3858 at 1.3208. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and sustained trading below 1.3208 will target 100% projection of 1.2807.
     
  13. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4689 is developing into a medium term correction pattern. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2671 and possibly below.
     
  14. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    USDCAD’s sell-off from its 1.4688 January high has so far taken it to the 1.2926 current March low, making us change our forecast to a bearish one.
     
  15. Steve Lock

    Steve Lock Active Trader

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    If we did break down below the uptrend line, we would need to see a close on the weekly chart below the 1.30 level to start shorting as that would be a very negative sign. I could send this market looking towards the 1.25 level given enough time, and perhaps even lower. This comes down to the commodity markets though, and although the US dollar continues to fall against most currencies, the reality is that the supply in the oil market has been so strong that is difficult to imagine that this pair is going to fall for any great amount of time, even if the US dollar itself continues to fall.
     
  16. Arum Capital

    Arum Capital Trader

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    Today marks the release of important statistics on the Canadian dollar - the consumer price index (CPI) will be published, its growth rate in relation to the previous month. And again the focus is on inflation! Today, inflation worries all of the world's central banks. At the present time, the decisions on key interest rates by central banks depends on its indicators. Most likely, under current conditions of global uncertainty regarding key rates, the market underestimates the potential for the growth of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. In Canada, as a whole, good economic statistics are coming out, raw materials prices remain at acceptable levels, and the unemployment rate is declining. This background creates the preconditions that in the near future, the Bank of Canada is going to raise its interest rate. Proceeding from this logic and remembering that after the publication of the minutes of the July meeting of the Fed, where the participants of the meeting noted the presence of weak inflation, which in turn was interpreted by the market as a sort of lag in raising the Fed rate, the pair USD / CAD has significantly adjusted from its highs and rushed to its minimum annual level. If statistical data is released that will allow the Bank of Canada to raise its key interest rate at its next meeting, we should expect a move to the pair's minimal levels, otherwise the price for the near future will remain in the range of 1.2580 -1.2780.

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