Date : 3rd March 2022.
Market Update – March 3 – War stokes stagflation fears.
Stock markets mostly moved higher across Asia, but
GER30 and
UK100 futures are down -0.14% and US futures narrowly mixed, with the
USA100 underperforming, against the background of the Ukraine war.
Yields jumped higher yesterday and Bund futures are little changed this morning, as are
Treasury futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected somewhat.
Aluminium hits record top;
Oil, wheat at multi-year highs on supply woes. Longer-term Black Sea supply curbs
lift wheat to 14-year high –
Brent hit
$118/barrel & Gold hit
$1950/ounce. Russia is a top supplier in oil, gas, metals and grain, and Russia and Ukraine also account for 19% of corn exports and 80% of exports of sunflower oil, which competes with soybean oil and palm oil.
Reuters:
The United States is preparing a sanctions package targeting more Russian oligarchs as well as their companies and assets, as Washington steps up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
New talks between Ukraine and Russia are reportedly slated for today. US “hugely important” delivery of Stinger missiles to Ukraine hailed “game-changer” – Fake News? Political propaganda? Who knows.
Overnight –
Powell signalled a less aggressive pace of interest rate hikes than investors had feared.
BoE’s Cunliffe and Tenreyro suggested that the war in Ukraine will
change the outlook” – suggested the bank remains on course to deliver further rate hikes. The banks could remain on course to remove stimulus, but will move cautiously and maintain the flexibility to step in again if necessary.
BoE’s Tenreyro says Ukraine war leaves “upside surprise” on inflation, but also delivered a trade shock.
China Services
PMIs down; Japan consumer confidence down. ADP data showed a stronger than expected 475k jump in private payrolls in February and a hefty upward revision in January to 509k from -301k.
- USD – USDIndex at 97.50
- US Yields 10-yr lower now, was over 13 bps higher testing 1.87%.
- Equities – Nikkei lifted 0.7%, USA500 jumped 1.86% – Energy was the best performing subsector on Nikkei (+3.2%), financials jumped 3.17%.
- USOil – Rallied to $112.00; Brent hit $118/barrel.
- Gold – steady as risk appetite improved, trades at $1926; Copper at 4.76 ; Palladium at 2,721.
- FX markets – EURUSD at 21-month low at 1.1055, USDJPY up at 115.72 and Cable down to 1.3390 now from 1.3416. USDCAD breaks below 200-Day SMA (Bank of Canada raised rates 0.25%). AUDUSD breaches and breaks 200-week SMA at 0.7320.
Today – Today’s data releases will continue to take a backseat , but include final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK. The account of the ECB’s last policy meeting is also due, but the highlights will be in the US session with Jobless claims, ISM Services, Markit PMI, Fed Chair Powell testimony and BoC Macklem speech.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT)
UKOIL (+4.83%) Spiked to
119.78. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram extend higher, RSI 70 & rising with all suggesting further steam to the upside. H1 ATR 1.79, Daily ATR 5.07.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
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