Technical Analyst by AryanForex

[AryanForex]

U.S.–Australia Critical Minerals Agreement

Fundamental:
U.S. President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed a rare earth and critical minerals agreement on Monday at the White House. Albanese called it an $8.5 billion ready-to-go project. As part of the agreement, both sides agreed to cut approval procedures for mining and processing operations to boost production. They also plan to jointly invest over $3 billion in the next six months. The estimated resource value of the projects is $53 billion.

Technical:
On the H4 AUD/USD chart, price is fluctuating and hovering near the 48-period equilibrium line.
MACD lines and histogram bars are converging near the zero axis, showing lack of clear market direction.

Key Levels:
1st Resistance: 0.6530
2nd Resistance: 0.6570
1st Support: 0.6440
2nd Support: 0.6400

 

[AryanForex]

The United States has blacklisted Russia’s major oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, intensifying pressure on Moscow. This move has raised market concerns that India — a key buyer of Russian oil — may cut imports, potentially threatening global oil supply ⛽️. Despite ample supply and rising OPEC+ production, the risk of disruption in Russian exports remains high.
Technically, crude oil on the H4 chart is in a consolidation phase and is expected to fluctuate between 60–70

 

[AryanForex]

Euro to USD Analysis
The movement of the euro is driven by economic data and trade developments in the Eurozone. Surveys indicate that Eurozone business activity in October grew faster than expected, especially in the services sector, and the PMI exceeded market forecasts, providing immediate support. Although weak US CPI benefits the euro, market pricing for a Fed rate cut is already fully reflected and has not amplified euro gains. Meanwhile, expectations for leader meetings inject some optimism into the euro, with investors hoping that trade easing will boost Eurozone exports.

Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has faced resistance on the H4 chart and has pulled back, trading near the 48-day buy/sell boundary. Also, the MACD lines and volume bars have decreased near the zero axis. Key indicators this week, such as Germany’s business confidence index, labor market report, Eurozone unemployment rate, and GDP, will test economic resilience.

Key Levels
1st Resistance: 1.1680
1st Support: 1.1570
2nd Resistance: 1.1730
2nd Support: 1.1520

 

[AryanForex]

Gold Analysis

Fundamental
Senior officials from China and the U.S. have reached a consensus on the framework of a potential trade agreement, which has eased market concerns, but negotiations are not yet concluded. Additionally, with major central bank events approaching, investors are reluctant to take new bearish positions on gold, making this the key factor behind current price fluctuations.
However, risks of escalating geopolitical tensions persist, providing some safe-haven demand support and preventing prices from dropping too far.

Technical
On the H4 gold chart, prices are oscillating and rebounding but still trading below the 48-day long/short demarcation line. Additionally, MACD lines and volume bars are shrinking below the zero axis.
Market attention will focus on Fed Chair Powell’s policy statement and press conference, particularly any forward guidance, as these will directly influence gold’s future trend direction.

Resistance & Support

1st resistance: 3977.00
1st support: 3940.00
2nd resistance: 3995.00
2nd support: 3920.00

 

[AryanForex]

Crude Oil Analysis

Fundamental:
Market focus is on the White House meeting between President Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán. Investors hope this meeting could pave the way for Hungary to continue using Russian oil, easing supply concerns linked to sanctions.
Meanwhile, data from Asia show a positive outlook —

Technical:
On the 4-hour chart, crude oil has slightly rebounded and is fluctuating near the 48-day equilibrium line. The MACD is expanding below the zero axis, indicating downward pressure. U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected due to higher imports and slower refinery activity, creating selling pressure; however, declining gasoline and distillate inventories provided some support.

Key Levels:
Resistance: 63.00 – 65.00
Support: 58.00 – 56.00

 

[AryanForex]

Spot gold dropped nearly 2%!
Reason: Cooling expectations for Fed rate cut in December and strong US Dollar Index, Dollar rises → Dollar-denominated gold becomes more expensive for other currency holders → demand drops

Fed comments:
Vice Chair: rate cuts should be gradual ⏳
Waller: rate cut is risk-management only ⚠️, not a sign of economic deterioration

Upcoming data:
September Non-Farm Payrolls
October unemployment rate & CPI not released ❌

Gold’s main drivers:
No longer just rate cuts
“Geopolitical + financial risk + central bank gold buying”
Rate cuts only short-term catalyst ⏱️

Market outlook:
Short-term: $4,000 level under pressure ⚡️, support $3,900–$3,950
Mid/long-term: central bank buying + global tensions + falling real rates → supportive for gold

 

[AryanForex]

Oppenheimer believes IBM’s shift toward software and AI will support sustained growth in revenue and profit margins. They set a 12–18 month price target of $360 and see strong contributions from HashiCorp and RedHat. IBM’s consulting segment is also expected to grow steadily as demand for software development and management increases. With companies expanding their use of AI tools, IBM is viewed as well-positioned, and buying the stock around $287 is considered reasonable.

 

[AryanForex]

It’s almost certain that the Fed will cut rates again, but the key question is how Powell will talk about the possibility of further easing next month. Markets expect a rate cut with a slightly hawkish tone, meaning Powell may avoid signaling another cut in January to satisfy the hawkish members of the committee.

Bank of America says Powell is facing the biggest internal disagreement in years, so delivering a “hawkish cut” won’t be easy—especially with several major economic data releases coming before the next meeting.

Powell will likely emphasize that after this cut, rates will be close to neutral, and any further easing will depend on a clear deterioration in the labor market.
The dollar index remains in a mild downtrend, and markets currently assign only a 25% chance of a January rate cut, though BoA believes Powell may still leave the door slightly open.

 

[AryanForex]

AUDUSD Analysis
Fundamental: Citi economists believe Australia’s inflation data could strengthen expectations for RBA rate hikes in February and May . The market is currently underpricing this risk, which may increase short-term bond sell-off pressure.

Technical: AUD/USD is moving in a range with a bullish bias on the H4 timeframe, trading above its equilibrium level. The MACD indicator is showing expanding momentum ⚙️. However, slower housing price growth could weigh on market sentiment .

Key Levels:
Resistance: 0.6760 – 0.6800
Support: 0.6670 – 0.6630

 

[AryanForex]

Trading Asset: Pinduoduo (NASDAQ: PDD)
Freedom Capital Markets has raised Pinduoduo’s price target from $140 to $170 and maintained its Buy rating. The stock is still considered undervalued, with some analysts setting targets as high as $201. This upgrade follows strong quarterly performance and the company’s successful adaptation to U.S. tariffs and tax policy changes.


Despite generating $58.8 billion in revenue and achieving 12.5% growth, margin pressure is expected to continue in the medium term; however, buying the stock around the $117 level could be an attractive opportunity.

 

[AryanForex]

Daily Crude Oil Analysis
Crude oil prices rebounded on Monday amid escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions. Strong rhetoric from Donald Trump toward Iran and ongoing unrest in the country have increased concerns over potential supply disruptions, lifting the geopolitical risk premium. Markets remain wary of possible military conflict and wider regional instability.

Technical:
On the H4 timeframe, crude oil maintains an upward trend above the 48-period bull–bear line. However, MACD momentum is weakening near the zero line. Rising global inventories suggest that without major supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts, oil prices may face downside pressure in the longer term.

Resistance and Support Levels:
Resistance: 62.00 / 64.00
Support: 57.00 / 55.00