Technical Analysis Today

[Zerologic]

AUDUSD surges amid reports of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran

The Australian dollar rose for three consecutive days, reflecting a risk-on market sentiment amid reports of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. The AUDUSD surged to a high of 0.70846 from a low of 0.69656 in response to the news.

The two-week ceasefire, initiated by Pakistan, sparked a return of optimism in global markets. When the threat of war subsides, investors tend to move out of safe-haven assets like the USD and back into currencies that offer high yields or are closely tied to economic growth, such as the AUD.

The ceasefire included an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil flows. This reduced the risk premium on energy commodity prices and eased short-term global inflationary pressures. This weakened demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset, providing room for the AUDUSD to rise.

Although the ceasefire provided positive momentum, the market remained cautious as it was likely temporary. Traders' focus today will be divided between assessing the ceasefire optimism and US economic data, while awaiting inflation or employment data that will provide a reason for the Fed to remain hawkish, which could limit further AUD strength.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is currently on a monetary tightening path. After raising interest rates to 4.1% in March, the market is now closely monitoring domestic inflation. The hawkish stance of RBA officials, who still leave open the possibility of further rate hikes, is a key support for AUD strength.

Economic stabilization in China, Australia's main trading partner, has positively impacted demand for Australian commodities, which in turn supports the AUD.

Stubborn US inflation leaves little room for the Fed to cut interest rates in 2026. This maintains the USD's appeal as a safe-haven asset, especially if global geopolitical tensions escalate.

Based on the current price movement of 0.70470, AUDUSD is expected to remain within the 0.70150-0.71100 price range. The nearest support is around 0.70300, with the next support target around 0.70150. The nearest resistance is around 0.70850, with the next resistance target around 0.71100. This forecast could be incorrect.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold Prices Rise Amid Fragile Ceasefire

Gold prices are attempting to recover after a correction amidst the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Gold prices are currently around $4,770, rising from a low of $4,698.

The situation in the Middle East, particularly tensions between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remains a determining factor. News of the ceasefire has dampened demand for safe-haven gold in the past 24 hours, causing prices to correct from their highs.

However, the market remains cautious due to reports of ceasefire violations. Any sudden escalation could immediately impact and trigger aggressive gold buying.

XAUUSD is currently exhibiting highly volatile market conditions due to the pull between geopolitical tensions and crucial US economic data. Tonight, the US will release CPI data, which is a major market driver this week.

If US inflation remains high due to the surge in oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, the market will expect the Fed to maintain high interest rates for longer. This could technically strengthen the USD and put pressure on gold prices. If inflation subsides, gold has the potential to gain upward momentum as expectations of interest rate cuts strengthen.

The US dollar index is currently showing a weakening US dollar amid reports of a ceasefire. The DXY is currently at around 98.834, recovering from a low of around 98.525. DXY fluctuations in this zone indicate US dollar strength. As long as the US dollar remains firmly above its psychological level, gold's gains are expected to be limited.

Based on current market conditions, gold is moving in a consolidation phase, but is likely vulnerable to short-term selling pressure before the CPI release.

Gold prices are predicted to move in the range of $4,620-$4,840. The nearest support is around $4,680, with the next support target around $4,620. The nearest resistance is around $4,780, with the next resistance target around $4,840. This forecast could be wrong.

 

[Zerologic]

Oil prices are under the shadow of a risk premium due to geopolitical tensions.

WTI oil prices could exhibit extreme volatility driven by the escalation of military conflict in the Middle East. The market is currently operating under a very high risk premium due to the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran.

Geopolitical conditions are the sole driver of oil prices at this time. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz since early March 2026 disrupted approximately 20% of supply, the largest disruption in the history of the global energy market.

A joint US and Israeli attack has targeted Iranian military infrastructure and nuclear sites. Iran's asymmetric retaliation using drones and missiles against US assets in neighboring countries remains a major threat.

Despite attempts at negotiations and a ceasefire between the US and Iran, the talks have failed completely. Reports of the US officially blocking the Strait of Hormuz, along with Iran's restrictions and threats of retaliation, have directly impacted global supply disruptions. This is the most bullish factor currently.

The conflict has escalated since the February 28 attacks by the US and Israel. Tensions are escalating in Lebanon and the Gulf, further contributing to the high risk premium. Since the start of the conflict, oil prices have risen by around 30%. WTI fell to $86-$89 due to the ceasefire, rebounding to around $98 when the conflict escalated. WTI even reached $110 during the initial escalation.

The market currently remains skeptical because Iran's demands for an easing of the economic blockade have not been fully met. Even the slightest news of de-escalation could trigger sharp profit-taking.

The halt in exports from the Persian Gulf has forced importing countries, especially in Asia, to seek alternatives from the US, Brazil, and others. US strategic oil reserves are at critical levels after being used to dampen price spikes.

Despite high prices, oil demand remains solid due to the lack of short-term energy substitutes, although some industries have begun to implement efficiencies or reduce production due to spiraling energy costs.

Oil prices are currently dependent on news, such as if the US actually launches an attack on Iranian energy sites as threatened. If the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, XTIUSD could easily surge in a short period of time. Conversely, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz could plunge the price back to a crucial level. Main support for XTIUSD is estimated at around $94-$95, with resistance around $105-$110. This forecast could be wrong.

 

[Zerologic]

GBP/JPY Hits Four-Month High

The GBP/JPY cross currency pair has shown bullish sentiment over the past two weeks. The price has now reached a four-month high of 215,336.

The conflict in the Middle East is a significant factor because Japan is heavily dependent on energy imports. Tensions in the Middle East have reportedly depressed global energy prices, which could fundamentally contribute to persistently high inflation.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is gradually withdrawing its accommodative policy stance. There is a 65-to-5 chance that the BoJ will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its April 27 meeting.

Japanese inflation is predicted to rise throughout 2026. Despite the prospect of a BoJ rate hike, the Yen remains under pressure due to its wide yield differential compared to other major currencies, including the GBP.

In the UK, the BoE's benchmark interest rate is currently at 3.75%. The Bank of England (BoE) last maintained interest rates in March 2026. Despite expectations of a rate cut this year, UK inflation remains at 3%, above its 2% target, prompting the BoE to remain cautious and not rush into further easing.

Tensions in the Middle East also threaten UK inflation. If energy prices remain high, this often provides support for the GBP through expectations of higher interest rates over the longer term.

GBP/JPY is currently in a strong bullish trend. In early April, GBP/JPY was around 211.04, but it surged sharply to reach 215,300. This increase represents an appreciation of approximately 2% in just the past two weeks.

Given the strong bullish momentum, the current price is expected to enter an important psychological level. The nearest support is estimated at 214,200, and the next support is around 213,850. The nearest resistance is around 215,800, and the next resistance target is around 216,500. This forecast could be wrong.

 

[Zerologic]

EUR/USD has been bullish for 7 consecutive days.

The EUR/USD pair, amidst geopolitical dynamics still vulnerable to attacks in the Middle East, requires extra attention, as it is the main driver of market movements. The EUR/USD pair has risen to around 1.18110, its highest level in several weeks. This increase occurred as the USD weakened for seven consecutive days, and market sentiment returned to risk-on.

Despite the failure of the ceasefire agreement, there is hope for a renegotiation between the US and Iran in Islamabad. Tensions remain, with the US blockading the Strait of Hormuz, but the market is beginning to assess the possibility of de-escalation. This has resulted in a decline in demand for safe-haven assets, especially the USD, as the risk of war is perceived to be easing. Increased risk appetite has supported stock prices and strengthened currencies other than the USD, including the Euro.

Oil prices have fallen due to hopes of an easing of the conflict and expectations that supplies will return to normal. WTI oil prices are currently around 89.11, having previously surged above $100.

Meanwhile, the USD has lost its safe-haven function, which was a bullish factor for the EURUSD pair. The DXY (DXY) was seen falling to around 98,100 from a high of 100,543 in late March. US inflation data (PPI) was lower than expected, suggesting the market is not aggressively raising interest rates. Easing geopolitical risk optimism has allowed funds to flow into the euro due to declining demand for safe havens, particularly the USD.

Despite expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the conflict remains unresolved, and conditions remain vulnerable to escalation. Meanwhile, the IMF has warned that war could trigger inflation and a global recession. If tensions escalate, oil prices could rise again, reinforcing the USD's strength. The market remains highly sensitive to news that could trigger volatility.

The ECB's main interest rate is currently at 2.15%. The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged because inflation is already close to target. However, the conflict in the Middle East poses a potential risk of rising inflation. If energy prices spike, it will burden the eurozone, as it is a net energy importer.

The Fed has also maintained its interest rate at around 3.50%-3.75%. Market expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates, although the Fed is expected to maintain its stance at its April 29 meeting. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate is 99.8%.

The conflict in the Middle East can influence perceptions of interest rates. If the conflict escalates and oil prices rise, inflation will also rise, which will lead to a more hawkish stance by the ECB to control inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed will remain cautious due to the risk of a recession. Currently, the ECB has the potential to be hawkish, depending on energy inflation, while the Fed is likely dovish.

EURUSD is currently trading around 1.17837, with a possible range forecast: nearest support is around 1.1750, with the next support target around 1.1720. Nearest resistance is around 1.1820, with the next resistance target around 1.1880. This forecast could be wrong.

 

[Zerologic]

AUD/USD surges in anticipation of Australian jobs data

The AUD/USD commodity currency pair surged for three consecutive days in anticipation of Australia's unemployment rate data, crucial for the RBA's monetary policy. The AUD/USD pair rose to a five-week high of 0.7176.

Australia's unemployment rate is expected to be between 4.2% and 4.3%. The increase from the previous month (4%) is putting mild pressure on the AUD, as the market begins to speculate about policy easing.

The RBA's cash rate is currently held at 4.10%. With the release of slightly weaker jobs data, expectations of a rate hike at 4.35% are likely to be corrected downwards.

Besides the market's anticipation of Australian jobs data, another focus is on US economic data due to be released today. Retail sales control group, a key indicator of US consumer spending, if this data is stronger than expected, the USD is likely to gain momentum, which could push the AUD/USD back below the psychological level. US jobless claims are expected to remain stable at 219k.

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain a significant catalyst in financial markets. The latest updates on the US-Iran war could trigger volatility and demand for safe-haven assets.

According to the latest data, the US has officially imposed a full maritime blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is reportedly on high alert. Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to disrupt global trade routes and will attack if provoked. This uncertainty continues to threaten energy prices and the risk of global inflation.

Shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly declined 90% since the war broke out on February 28th. Iran has laid sea mines to secure this strategic global waterway in an effort to defend itself.

Russia and China have begun to support Iran diplomatically, and the world is divided into a Western bloc consisting of the US and its allies, and an Eastern bloc consisting of China, Russia, and Iran. This indicates that the conflict is reaching a global proxy scale. If the conflict escalates, the USD tends to rise; if it subsides, the AUD strengthens. The Middle East is currently in a state of semi-war; there is a ceasefire, but military tensions and the risk of escalation remain high.

 

[Zerologic]

XTI/USD faces a supply deficit threat amid logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

WTI oil prices are currently hovering around $90.10 on the FXOpen chart, up from a low of $84.82. Current oil prices indicate market conditions are showing signs of stabilization following a major escalation in the Middle East.

Fundamentally, the market is currently experiencing a significant supply deficit due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA recorded this as the largest supply disruption in history. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain limited, despite talks of a ceasefire.

Recent data showed a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories, supporting prices at high levels. In Asia, there are indications of declining demand due to excessively high prices, but the need for diesel and jet fuel continues to keep prices high. The US-Iran conflict is currently in a fragile, conditional ceasefire.

Following the ceasefire on April 8, military tensions have eased. However, the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully reopened to normal commercial traffic due to security concerns and naval mines.

Recent reports suggest a potential major agreement between the US and Iran in the coming days, but the market remains skeptical due to fluctuating political rhetoric. Although tensions are not as high as at the peak of the conflict, the risk premium remains high on oil prices. However, if news emerges regarding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, prices could fall rapidly.

Although the RSI is overbought, the trend remains potentially bullish due to structurally supportive fundamental issues. The nearest XTIUSD support is forecast at around 91.90, with the next support at around $89.00. The nearest resistance is around $94.10, with the next resistance target around $95.00. This forecast could be wrong.