Technical Analysis Today

[Zerologic]

GBP/USD Extends Decline Ahead of UK PMI Data Release

On Thursday, October 23, 2025, the GBP/USD pair drew a bearish candle with a relatively long body and small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This decline extended the previous four-day decline. The price formed a high of 1.33600, a low of 1.33078, and a close of 1.3325.

Several fundamental factors contributed to the weakening of the GBP, including the UK's annual inflation data for September, which was recorded at 3.8%, below expectations and not increasing from the previous month. This condition has raised expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates or remain cautious. The UK economy appears weak, or at least not particularly strong, with limited growth, creating pressure in the UK bond market. A more dovish BoE outlook or potential rate cuts could cause yields on UK instruments to fall, reducing the attractiveness of the GBP against the USD. Expectations for a BoE rate cut have increased, and the market now expects 20 bps of easing for December, up from 11 bps. Today, the UK will release its services PMI economic data. If the data surprises, showing faster growth, it could support the GBP. However, the risks are currently more to the downside.

On the other hand, the USD is supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may not be as aggressive in lowering interest rates as expected, thus making US yields more attractive, boosting demand for the USD. Global risk sentiment, coupled with uncertainty, is boosting the safe-haven USD, which could strengthen demand for global liquidity. US trade rhetoric against China has worried investors, prompting them to turn to safe assets like the US dollar and gold. Reuters sources revealed that the Trump administration plans to restrict global exports to China that make or contain US software in retaliation for China's export controls on rare earths and port fees for US vessels.

Today, the US will release CPI data, which is crucial for the Fed in determining interest rate policy. The annual CPI is expected to rise from 2.9% to 3.1%. If the actual figure is higher than forecast, this could strengthen expectations of an interest rate hike or at least keep interest rates at high levels for a longer period. A higher-than-expected US CPI tends to strengthen the USD because it increases speculation that the Fed will be hawkish. This could put downward pressure on GBPUSD. Conversely, if the US CPI is lower than forecast, it will tend to weaken the USD because it reduces the need for the Fed to raise interest rates, which can provide an upward push for GBPUSD.

If global stock markets, particularly in the US, strengthen, this could indicate risk-on sentiment, which can sometimes support the GBP. However, USD strength due to strong CPI figures could dominate this sentiment. The US dollar is generally supported by expectations of a stable or hawkish Fed policy stance, while the US economy remains relatively strong.

Today's price range, if volatility is high due to the US CPI, is forecast to be between 1.3240 and 1.3430. A conservative range is estimated at 1.3280 and 1.3380.

 

[Zerologic]

AUD/JPY rose, supported by commodity markets and a weaker JPY.

The AUD/JPY pair has drawn bullish candles for six consecutive days, reflecting the strengthening of the AUD against the JPY. On Friday, the rise slowed, with the AUD/JPY drawing a small-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 88.591, a low of 99.219, and a close of 99.455.

The AUD/JPY pair is often referred to as a risk-on pair because its movements are highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. This pair is highly sensitive to RBA and BoE interest rate policies; RBA rate hikes or expectations of rate hikes tend to strengthen the AUD. Australia is a major commodity exporter, especially of iron ore; rising industrial commodity prices typically support the AUD. If the global market is optimistic, investors tend to seek high-yielding assets, which can drive demand for the AUD and sell the JPY as a safe-haven currency. China also influences the AUD/JPY currency pair as it is a strategic trading partner of Australia. Chinese GDP, PMI, and trade data could influence the AUD.

The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations that Japan's fiscal policy will loosen and interest rates may remain low, which could weaken the JPY as a safe-haven currency. However, any speculation about policy changes, such as the end of yield curve control, could significantly strengthen the JPY.

During periods of global economic or geopolitical uncertainty, the JPY tends to strengthen because it is considered a safe-haven currency, especially when markets tend to be risk-off. Japan's trade balance is also of interest, as a trade surplus often supports the JPY.

Today's economic calendar will focus on investors' attention, with a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock likely providing subtle hints about whether future policy will be more hawkish or dovish. A more hawkish policy could support the AUD's strength, while a more dovish statement could pressure the AUD.

Although the AUD is currently supported, if there is a sudden weakening in global risk appetite, investors could turn to the JPY as a safe-haven currency, which could pressure the AUD/JPY pair. Changes could also occur due to Japanese interest rate policy or currency intervention, which could suddenly strengthen the JPY and pressure the AUD/JPY pair. Conversely, if Australian economic data disappoints and commodities decline, this could weaken the AUD.

The forecast price range for AUD/JPY today is 97.50 - 98.00. The main resistance range is 100.00 - 100.50. The conservative intraday range is 98.50 - 99.80.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold Prices Continue to Correct, Crossing the Middle Band Line

Gold prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday, October 27, 2025, extending their correction, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 4108, a low of 3971, and a close of 3987. This decline successfully crossed the middle band line from the upside and crossed the psychological level of 4000.

Gold prices have been highly volatile recently, having reached new highs followed by sharp corrections. Historically, the long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term momentum indicates a correction or consolidation phase.

From a long-term perspective, if global risk sentiment improves, such as optimism about resolving US-China trade tensions and geopolitical issues, this could lead to easing demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to price declines. Recently, it was reported that President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold a meeting, which raised optimism about a resolution to the trade war between the two countries. According to US officials, they have finalized the framework of a trade deal with Chinese economic leaders that is set to be formalized by US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Reuters reported that, according to US officials, this agreement will halt steeper US tariff increases, end restrictions on rare earths exports from China, and resume China's large purchases of US soybeans.

Besides global risk sentiment, profit-taking after a significant rally also triggered further price declines in the short term. On the other hand, gold often has a negative correlation with the US dollar. If the US dollar strengthens, supported by strong US economic data or a hawkish Fed outlook, gold tends to fall. However, the DXY is currently not showing significant increases; although it is trending upward, its movement is still below the 100 level. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, for example, ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month, which could signal a dovish outlook, gold could be pushed up.

The market is currently anticipating the Federal Reserve's imminent interest rate outlook. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the potential for a 25 basis point rate cut is 97.8%. If the actual data meets market expectations, it is likely to push gold prices up. Conversely, if the Fed is more cautious and leaves interest rates unchanged, this could pressure gold prices.

Despite the prospect of lower interest rates, the US dollar is showing signs of regaining strength, or at least not weakening further. This could put pressure on gold prices. A more bullish market sentiment, which tends to seek riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, could reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the market becomes risk-on.

Today's price forecast is for a broader range of 3920-4140 and a consolidation range of 3985-4086. Strong resistance is around 4140-4160, and strong support is around 3920-3960.

 

[Zerologic]

USDCAD falls ahead of BoC interest rate decision

The USDCAD pair trended downward during the week's trading. Although price volatility was very volatile in the short term, downward pressure was dominant. The USDCAD charted a bearish candle on October 28th with a fairly long candle body. The price formed a high of 1.40056, a low of 1.39333, and a close of 1.39433. This indicates the Canadian dollar is strengthening against the US dollar ahead of today's BoC interest rate decision. The BoC is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, prior to 2.50%. Theoretically, an interest rate cut tends to weaken the CAD because the return is relatively less attractive compared to the USD. On the other hand, the USD is expected to see an interest rate cut or easing by the Federal Reserve. Interest rate cuts tend to weaken currencies, but the USD still receives support from safe-haven flows and uncertain global conditions.

The CAD's strengthening on Tuesday appears to have been driven more by the report on US Consumer Confidence, which fell in October. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.6 from a revised 95.6 in September, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the USD, has weakened slightly over the past five days, trending towards a doji with a lower low. The DXY is currently down at 98.717 from a high of 98.565.

Today's focus will shift to the risk of interest rate decisions from the Bank of China (BoC) and the Federal Reserve, which are preparing to announce their decisions. The market currently expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates due to a sharp slowdown in the Canadian economy, which shrank by 1.6% in the second quarter due to US steel/aluminum tariffs and high unemployment.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is also almost certain to cut interest rates after weaker-than-expected US inflation data last week, reinforcing expectations of a dovish Fed stance. The Fedwatch tool indicates a 99.9% probability of a 25 bps interest rate cut.

Canada relies heavily on oil exports, and oil prices are currently falling after ending a session of gains during last week's trading. Weakening oil prices could put pressure on the CAD against the USD. Analysts report that pension fund hedges against the CAD are declining, reducing the automatic support for the CAD.

Combining Canadian and US fundamentals, USDCAD has the potential to rise due to the BoC interest rate cut. Although the Fed is also expected to cut rates, it still enjoys support as a safe-haven currency, benefiting the USD. However, if there is a sharp rebound in oil prices or a surprisingly strong Canadian economy, the CAD could strengthen further.

Today's USDCAD price forecast: support range: 1.39000 - 1.39500, resistance range: 1.41000 - 1.41500.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/JPY rises after the Fed's interest rate cut decision

On Wednesday, October 29th, the USD/JPY pair drew a bullish candle with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 153.061, a low of 151.543, and a close of 152.700.

The Fed finally cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected. The market surprised the market, as the USD strengthened against other major currencies, including the Japanese Yen, which rose significantly within an hour. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, rose around 0.43% after the cut. The DXY rose to a high of 99.356 from a low of 98.624 and closed at 99.167.

The market had previously predicted that the Fed would cut interest rates, with a 99% chance of a cut, according to the Fedwatch tool, just hours before the release. However, what's more important is not just the cut itself, but the tone of the Fed Chairman's statement, whether it will be dovish or hawkish. The FOMC statement showed that economic activity has been growing at a moderate pace. Job growth slowed this year, and the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with this development. Inflation has been rising since the beginning of the year and remains relatively high. The committee recommends a long-term inflation target of 2%. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high, and the risk of a job decline has increased in recent months.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) currently does not expect major changes in interest rates in the short term. It is expected to maintain the interest rate at 0.50%. In theory, the Japanese yen is quite vulnerable due to the difference in interest rates and long-term expectations. If the BoJ signals a hawkish signal or the market anticipates a Japanese interest rate hike, the JPY could strengthen. Conversely, if the BoJ is very dovish, the JPY is likely to remain weak. Internal government pressure also contributed to the Japanese government's warning that, through its financial authorities, it would monitor currency volatility and potentially intervene if the JPY weakened too rapidly.

Considering the fundamentals of both the US and Japan, the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the Bank of Japan's policies and potential intervention by the Japanese government. Currently, the USD remains biased to strengthen, but the risk of a reversal is significant if the BoJ suddenly signals a hawkish stance or Japan intervenes to strengthen the JPY.

Today's short-term price range forecast is 151.00-153.00, while the broader forecast is 150.00-154.00. Potential support is around 151.50-150.80. If the JPY strengthens, the price could fall to 150.50-151.00. Resistance is around 152.80-153.30. If momentum is strong or the JPY weakens further, it could rise to 153.25-153.50.

Today, traders will focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy and the tone of its monetary policy statement, which may provide subtle clues about Japan's economic outlook. Markets sometimes react quickly to policy changes.

 

[Zerologic]

WTI oil prices stabilize near the middle band

The XTIUSD oil price on Thursday, October 30, drew a Doji candlestick, reflecting market indecision within a narrow price range. The price formed a high of 60.55, a low of 59.46, and a close of 60.08, after opening at 60.15.

Fundamentally, the crude oil market is currently dominated by concerns about oversupply and slowing global demand. Factors that could influence the decline in oil prices include the IEA report showing a significant oil supply surplus since the beginning of the year. Global production is estimated at 1.9 million barrels per day, primarily from non-OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, and Canada, and is expected to continue to increase until 2026.

Although OPEC+ previously restricted supply, they are expected to gradually ease cuts with planned output increases, which could add to supply pressure on the market. Oil demand growth is expected to slow significantly compared to historical trends due to more challenging macroeconomic conditions and increased transportation efficiency.

Global oil stocks continue to rise, including those held on ships/at sea, reaching a four-year high, indicating an oversupplied market. Economic data from major economies like China show no strong growth in oil consumption, while there is also a decline in the risk premium due to easing geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East peace agreement. On the other hand, the US administration is known to prioritize lower oil prices around $50 per barrel to manage inflation.

On the other hand, as a supporting factor for oil prices, although OPEC+ is gradually increasing, they are expected to be cautious to prevent stocks from rising too rapidly. They could also consider new supply cuts if prices fall too far. There is also a view that amid US sanctions on Russia, overall oil demand by major consumers remains strong. Meanwhile, a high Oil Volatility Index indicates market distrust and the potential for rapid price declines, but this could also lead to a sudden price reversal.

Comparing fundamental factors on both sides, market sentiment appears to remain bearish, driven by a clear supply surplus and slowing demand growth, although comments from OPEC+ may provide some price support.

The forecast oil price range is likely to be in the range of 59-63. Key resistance is around 66, and short-term support is around 61.50-63. Long-term support is around 55.00, and short-term support is around 58.99-59.57.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices fell on Friday due to the Fed's hawkish tone.

Gold prices on Friday drew a bearish candle with a small body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 4046, a low of 3972, and a close of 4002. Gold prices reached their lowest point for the month of October on October 28th at 3886. Gold then rebounded to 4046 at the end of October.

Gold's decline over the weekend appeared to be triggered by several factors. In his post-meeting statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the possibility of a December interest rate cut, saying it was not a foregone conclusion and emphasizing that policy decisions would remain data-dependent. Gold price movements also depended on the strength of the US dollar. The US dollar and Treasury yields remained strong after the Fed's cautious guidance, weighing on gold's rise, as traders reduced expectations of a rate cut this year.

Meanwhile, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended positively, providing some temporary relief from US-China trade tensions. Improving market sentiment is also a factor weighing on gold's safe-haven appeal.

The global market's next focus will likely be on Friday's NFP data and today's ISM Manufacturing PMI. However, both figures are currently tentative due to the potential impact of the US government shutdown.

Gold's daily movement is estimated to be in the range of $3935-$4080. Strong resistance is around 4140-4165; a breakout of this level could confirm a bullish trend. Strong support is around 3905-3935; a breakout of this level could confirm a deeper correction.

 

[Zerologic]

The Australian dollar is trending lower against the USD ahead of the RBA interest rate decision.

On Monday, November 3, the AUD/USD pair drew a small-bodied bearish candle with long shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This candlestick pattern extended the previous four-day losing streak. AUD/USD formed a high of 0.6535, a low of 0.65176, and a close of 0.65381 from an open of 0.65413.

The main factor likely to drive the AUD/USD pair today is the RBA's interest rate decision. The market currently expects the RBA to maintain its cash rate at 3.60%. If the RBA ultimately cuts rates as expected, the focus will shift to the accompanying statement, or RBA rate statement, for subtle hints about the RBA's future policy tone. If the statement is hawkish, indicating the RBA remains wary of inflation, the implication is likely to be that the AUD will strengthen. If the RBA unexpectedly cuts rates, the AUD is likely to weaken sharply. Conversely, if the RBA unexpectedly raises rates, the Australian dollar could strengthen sharply.

Given the Australian economic backdrop, the higher-than-expected monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2025 has reduced market bets on further interest rate cuts in the near term and provided temporary support for the AUD. The market will also be closely monitoring other economic data from Australia this week, such as the trade balance. A larger trade surplus could support the AUD. This is because the AUD has a strong correlation with commodities such as copper and iron ore, with its strategic partner, China. If the global recovery strengthens, this could support the AUD.

The current pressure on the AUD is primarily due to the continued strength of the USD. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates soon are supporting the USD and putting pressure on the AUD. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, has risen over the past five days, reflecting this strong performance. The DXY has currently reached 99.988. While the Chinese economy and commodity demand remain at risk, disappointing data could negatively impact the AUD.

Although several US economic data releases have been delayed due to the government shutdown, the market will continue to focus on this week's US employment report. Weak US data could pressure the USD, while stronger data could support it.

Price movements ahead of the RBA announcement are likely to be cautious. Key support is forecasted at 0.6480-0.6500, with key resistance at 0.6600-0.6610. The RBA interest rate decision is high-impact news, so strict risk management is required. Significant price movements could occur following the RBA announcement.

 

[Zerologic]

NZD/USD plummets to 0.56473, lowest since July 2025

The New Zealand dollar plummeted on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.57095, a low of 0.56473, and a close of 0.56511.

Several reasons underpinning the New Zealand dollar's weakness include signs of cooling momentum in China's manufacturing sector, a key export market for New Zealand, and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. The strengthening of the USD as a safe-haven currency has further pressured the New Zealand dollar. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against six major currencies, showed an increase and successfully crossed the psychological level of 100.00.

The NZD exchange rate against the USD has been declining in recent days, even trending lower monthly since July.

According to data from the RBNZ, the trade-weighted index for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) recently experienced a slight decline from 66.60 to 66.24, indicating depreciation against its trading partner currencies. Analysts appear to be predicting a more bearish outlook for the NZD against the USD.

From an economic perspective, New Zealand is facing relatively weak growth, and the RBNZ has indicated that it could ease monetary policy further. For example, news related to the RBNZ's intention to cut interest rates and warn of further easing. A further drop in the RBNZ's interest rate would tend to weaken the NZD, as its yield relative to the USD becomes less attractive. Today, the market will focus on the release of Canadian economic news, which will focus on employment data. New Zealand's unemployment rate is forecast to rise from 5.2% to 5.3%. A higher reading would further pressure the NZD, while a lower reading could support the NZD in the short term.

The USD is currently relatively strong because US yields remain high and investors are seeking safe havens amid global uncertainty. US monetary policy and the Fed remain hawkish in many other countries, giving the USD an advantage. Global risk-off sentiment could support the USD and weaken commodity currencies like the NZD. Risks that could accelerate movements include US inflation or employment data, the RBNZ announcement, major changes in New Zealand exports or commodity conditions, and significant changes in global risk sentiment.

The NZDUSD price range today is estimated to move within the main support range of 0.5550 - 05820, with a realistic range of 0.5620 - 05740. If a positive catalyst occurs, such as better-than-expected New Zealand data, the price may rise to 0.5740. If a negative catalyst occurs, such as a weakening China or a stronger US, the price may break through the 0.5600 support level.

 

[Zerologic]

GBP/USD attempted a recovery after hitting a low of 1.30101

The GBPUSD price movement on Wednesday, November 5th, attempted to recover from losses by drawing a medium-bodied bullish candle. The price formed a high of 1.30528, a low of 1.30100, and a close of 1.30495.

The GBP/USD pair is trending downwards to a seven-month low due to negative sentiment toward the pound sterling. Recently, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves signaled the possibility of tax increases in the upcoming budget, raising fiscal concerns. The UK economy has delivered less than encouraging data, with inflation remaining high at 3.8% year-on-year, but economic growth and productivity are weak. This situation raises doubts about the Bank of England's interest rate policy, which could be forced to hold or even lower interest rates. Today, the BoE will decide on the official interest rate, which is expected to remain at 4%. An unexpected decision, such as a rate cut, could further pressure the GBP. Conversely, a higher-than-expected rate increase could support GBP appreciation.

On the other hand, the US dollar is relatively strong due to global conditions of greater stock sell-offs and riskier assets, prompting many investors to return to safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. Furthermore, expectations that the Fed will be more cautious in cutting interest rates are supporting the strengthening of the USD amid the ongoing US federal government shutdown, which is now the longest in history.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, continues to show strength, reaching a high of 100.360, a low of 100.059, and closing at 100.182. The DXY's rise has crossed four moving averages: the 20, 50, 100, and 200 moving averages. Some analysts say a DXY above 100 indicates greater USD strength.

With weak GBP fundamentals and a strong USD, the structure suggests the risk of GBP/USD falling further, or at least fluctuating in a sideways to bearish range. However, a change could occur if significant positive news emerges for the UK, such as economic data far above expectations or the Bank of England (BoE) giving a hawkish signal, which could trigger a brief rally.

Today's forecast price range: resistance around 1.3250 - 1.3300, and support around 1.2950 - 1.3000. A realistic range today is estimated at around 1.3000 - 1.3300.

 

[Zerologic]

Oil prices are neutral, tending towards bearish amid oversupply concerns

The price of WTI crude oil on Thursday tended to be neutral with a bearish bias. The price drew a bearish candle with a short body and long shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. WTI oil prices formed a high of 60.28, a low of 58.81, and a close of 59.39. The price range moved near the middle band line.

Fundamentally, oil prices are currently under pressure. Concerns about oversupply remain a key issue in fundamental oil analysis. The latest data on US oil stocks from the EIA showed a significant surge of 5.2 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations. This increase in inventories adds to concerns about oversupply in the global market. US crude oil production is reported to remain at a record level of around 13.65 million barrels per day, further strengthening the supply side.

OPEC+ began cutting production in early November, supporting oil prices. However, the impact of excess supply from the US and concerns about weakening global demand tend to polarize market sentiment.

Global oil demand is vulnerable to global economic downturns, as US manufacturing data and Chinese economic activity show weakness. This puts pressure on demand. Furthermore, a strengthening US dollar can also be a factor in weakening oil prices. A stronger US dollar makes commodities denominated in US dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing relative demand.

The market currently appears to be caught between bullish factors stemming from OPEC+ cuts and bearish factors stemming from excess supply from the US and weak demand. Recent reports indicate that the oil market remains clouded by concerns about oversupply and weak economic data.

Considering the Doji-like candlestick pattern, this reflects market indecision. Overall, fundamental conditions tend to be neutral to slightly bearish, with OPEC+ cuts as a positive factor and weak global demand and oversupply as a negative factor.

Current geopolitical factors are less supportive of rising oil prices. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East typically support increases, peace or ceasefires in conflict zones tend to depress prices further.

Today's XTIUSD price range is estimated to be within a reasonable range of $57-$63.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver prices corrected, awaiting new triggers

The XAGUSD pair moved steadily within a narrow range on Friday, November 7th, drawing a small-bodied bullish candle with a relatively long shadow at the top of the candle. Silver prices formed a high of 48,868, a low of 47,627, and a close of 48,225.

Several factors influence silver prices, particularly industrial demand and inventories, US monetary policy, US dollar strength, market sentiment, and safe-haven trading.

From an industrial demand perspective, silver is gaining attention as a precious metal. It is primarily used in solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics. According to analysis, more than 60% of silver demand comes from these industrial sectors. Currently, despite high demand for green energy, the gloomy global manufacturing environment is one of the reasons holding back silver's rise. Physical supply is said to be under pressure, particularly because silver is often a byproduct of mining other metals, making it difficult to quickly increase production when demand increases. Under these conditions, structurally strong industrial demand and limited supply conditions support silver's resilience or even further gains.

Silver prices are also heavily influenced by the Fed's monetary policy and the US dollar, as silver is quoted in USD. When the dollar weakens or interest rates are expected to fall, precious metals like silver often benefit. However, there is currently an element of uncertainty in the US economy, delayed by the longest government shutdown in US history. Expectations of interest rate cuts are shifting, leaving the market somewhat dependent on the next catalyst.

Although silver's demand is primarily driven by the industrial sector, this precious metal also possesses safe-haven characteristics, albeit less strongly than gold. During times of global uncertainty, demand for silver can surge as a hedge. However, because prices have risen significantly from previous levels, there is a risk of a correction or consolidation, and the market may be waiting for a new trigger before a sharp move.

In the long term, silver remains structurally bullish due to strong industrial demand and limited supply. However, in the short term, the price is somewhat mixed without a strong catalyst, and prices could move sideways or correct slightly. The main risks are a strengthening US dollar or US economic data indicating economic resilience, which could diminish silver's appeal as a hedge.

The silver price forecast in a conservative scenario: support is in the range of 45,720-43,660, and resistance is around 49,000. If a breakout occurs, silver has the potential to reach 51,670.