Speculator'a diary, first entry (06.10.2023).

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
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Start. Deal with XAU/USD.

Fishing is one of the most ancient ways to get food and there is no person who does not know how to catch fish with a fishing rod.

Rod, line, float, weight and hook. What else is needed, besides bait on a hook, in order to catch fish? That's right, you need the appropriate skills and experience. The Russian proverb says so: “You can’t catch a fish out of a pond without labor.”

Taking freshly dug worms with a fishing rod, you can go to the river for fish. I don’t think it’s a sensible idea to take with you another kilogram of fish in addition to the worms in order to catch a couple more kilograms on the river with its help.

What am I talking about? Moreover, trading on FOREX is akin to fishing. Both here and there require the appropriate skills and experience, and here and there “those thirsting to satisfy their hunger” are trying to get food for themselves, and here and there someone does not succeed at all. And yes, FOREX is not a place where you need to come with a million to earn two. At FOREX, like going fishing, you need to come “with a fishing rod” and catch as much as your knowledge, acquired skills and accumulated experience in speculative trading allow.

The question of profitable trading on FOREX lies in the plane of choosing the necessary “fishing rod”. My choice of fishing rod is the use of [URL deleted] the Niro Method in speculative trading - a method for modeling the future dynamics of value in the financial market, which can be found by clicking on the link in [URL deleted] the article “Apophenia as an apologist for clairvoyance in capital markets”[/URL].

There are many types, methods and methods of fishing. Fishing can be commercial, sport, or amateur; Sometimes it’s winter, sometimes it’s summer; sometimes river, lake, sometimes sea; it happens from the shore, from a boat, from the surface of the ice, by entering a body of water, and sometimes underwater fishing; It can be float, spinning, bottom, with the use of a spear, with shooting at fish from a bow, and sometimes with shooting from an underwater gun. In general, for every taste. Well, the methods of fishing and types of fishing gear are simply impossible to list or describe due to their infinite number.

Do you understand what I'm getting at? Moreover, deciding what to buy and what to sell, where to place take profit and where to place stop loss, is preceded by fundamental and technical analyses, the types of which are endless.

There are countless ways to technically analyze charts, as well as fishing methods. My method is the Niro Method, it's no better or worse than others, it's just different.

The essence of the method for modeling the dynamics of quotes is to identify the fractal structure of the chart and describe it using attractors from the Niro Alphabet.

If we consider the Niro Method to be a fishing rod, then let the bait on the hook be a deposit of 3 USD, essentially equivalent to a worm strung on a hook, which has zero value compared to fish that can be eaten or sold.

Well, let's go fishing!



Let's start trading gold (XAU/USD).

As of 08/18/2023, the most probable fractal structure of the gold price dynamics chart is the fractal structure shown in Fig. 1-1.
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Fig. 1-1​
According to this fractal structure, the model for the future dynamics of gold prices will be the continuation of the formation of the fractal indicated in Fig. 1-1 in blue.

This FMFS-I scenario for the development of gold price dynamics (Fig. 1-1) assumes that at the point with coordinates (09.26.2022; 1621.01), a fractal began its formation, which is indicated in green, and at the point with coordinates (20.03. 2023; 2009.68) this fractal has ended.

Said green fractal formed as fractal F-#21 from Niro's Alphabet of Attractors. Moreover, the 1st segment of the green fractal was formed in the form of fractal F-No. 13, with an order one lower, which is indicated in orange on the time interval (09.26.2022; 12.13.2022). The 2nd segment of the green fractal was formed in the form of fractal F-No. 24 on the time interval (12/13/2022; 12/22/2022). The 3rd segment of the green fractal was formed in the form of fractal F-№22, which is indicated in purple on the time interval (12/21/2022; 03/20/2023).

Thus, we can assume that in the time interval (09/26/2022; 03/20/2023) the formation of the 1st segment of the fractal, indicated in blue in the cost range (1621.01; 2009.68), occurred. If this is so, then the 2nd segment of this blue fractal was formed on the time interval (03/20/2023; 08/18/2023) in the form of a fractal with an order less than one, which is indicated on the chart by fractal F-No. 21 from the Alphabet of Attractors Niro dark- purple color.

The first segment of this dark purple fractal was formed on the time interval (03/20/2023; 05/26/2023) in the form of fractal F-№14, which has an order of one less and is indicated in light brown. The 2nd segment of the dark purple fractal formed as a mono segment on the time interval (05/26/2023; 06/02/2023). Well, the 3rd segment of this dark purple fractal F-No. 21 was formed on the time interval (06/02/2023; 08/18/2023) in the form of fractal F-No. 23, which is indicated in pink on the chart.

Taking into account these assumptions, within the framework of the FMFS-I scenario, the upcoming dynamics of gold quotations will have to occur in an upward trend within the framework of the formation of the 3rd segment of the fractal, which is indicated in blue on the chart.

As of 08/18/2023, it was assumed that after the completion of the 2nd segment of the blue fractal on the time interval (03/20/2023; 08/18/2023), an explosive increase in gold prices would follow, within which the cost of a troy ounce would have to exceed $2,100. However, no explosive growth in quotations occurred and on the time interval (08/18/2023; 09/18/2023) a fractal structure was formed, within which the price of gold remained virtually unchanged and remained in a narrow range at $1,900 per ounce (Fig. 1 -2).​
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Fig. 1-2​
Despite the sluggish growth of quotes, the FMFS-I scenario still remains a priority for consideration. If so, then explosive growth in quotes should still be expected.

Analysis of small fractal structures shows that in the time interval (08/18/2023; 09/18/2023) fractal F-No. 34 from the Alphabet of Attractors Niro was formed, which is indicated in red on the graph. If this assumption is correct, then an explosive growth in quotes is possible only in one case, if this red fractal is the 1st segment of a larger order fractal F-No. 35, which is indicated in orange. In this case, we should expect a sharp decline in gold prices as part of the formation of the 2nd segment of the orange fractal, followed by a sharp increase in prices as part of the formation of the 3rd segment of the orange fractal towards the level of $2,100 per ounce (Fig. 1-2).

The orange fractal formed in this way will be the 1st segment of the fractal of one higher order, which is indicated in green on the graph (Fig. 1-2). After the completion of the orange fractal, gold quotations will have to decrease as part of the formation of the 2nd segment of the green fractal, after which the growth of quotations will continue at an even greater pace, updating historical highs as part of the formation of the 3rd segment of the green fractal.

As of September 18, 2023, we can say that the most appropriate moment to buy gold will be the completion of the 2nd segment of the orange fractal at one of the Fibonacci grid levels (Fig. 1-3).​
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Fig. 1-3​
The length of the 1st segment of the orange fractal is 47.40 USD. The most likely length of the 2nd segment of the orange fractal in the event of a sharp drop in quotes will be a length equal to 2.618 of the length of the 1st segment, that is, equal to 124.09 USD. Thus, an acceptable quote for opening a long position in gold will be in the range from 1,812 to 1,815 USD per troy ounce (Fig. 1-4).​
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Fig. 1-4​
10/06/2023 after the completion of the 2nd segment of the orange fractal at the calculated point determined by analyzing the smallest fractal structures of charts with minute time frames, a long position in gold was opened with a volume of 0.01 lot at a price of $1,813.56 per troy ounce (Fig. 1-5).​
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Fig. 1-5​
The closing of the daily candle on 10/06/2023 above the market entry point gives reason to assume that the chosen model is correct for the future dynamics of gold prices according to the FMFS-I scenario (Fig. 1-5).

In anticipation of an explosive growth in gold prices, it was decided to add a pending buy stop order with a volume of 0.02 lots at $1,873.56 per ounce in addition to the open long position (Fig. 1-6).​
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Fig. 1-6
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Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 
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costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Second entry (11.10.2023).
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Deal with XAU/USD.

A pending buy stop order placed on 10/06/2023 for the XAU/USD instrument at 1873.56 with a volume of 0.02 lots was triggered on 10/11/2023 at a price of 1873.60.​
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Fig. 2-1​
The dynamics of XAU/USD quotes as of October 11, 2023 shows that it is likely that the fractal indicated in Fig. 2-2 is being formed in the fractal structure in orange.​
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Fig. 2-2​
Taking these assumptions into account, we should expect a continuation of the upward trend towards $2,065 as part of the formation of the 3rd segment of the orange fractal.​
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Fig. 2-3
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Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Third entry (13.10.2023).
003_3.png
Deal with XAU/USD.

On 10/13/2023, the growth of gold quotes accelerated and it was decided to add one more to the already two open positions.​
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Fig. 3-1
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Fig. 3-2​
In anticipation of the continuation of the upward trend according to the FMFS-I model (Fig. 3-2), made on September 18, 2023, a long position was opened on the XAU/USD instrument with a volume of 0.03 lots at $1929.26 per ounce (Fig. 3-3).​
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Fig. 3-3
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Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Entry 4th (20.10.2023).
004_3.png
Deal with XAU/USD. Yield 20’002.67%.

On the morning of October 20, 2023, three long positions on the XAU/USD instrument were already opened. To fix a profitability of 20,000% and get a total profit of 600USD, take profit was set at 1995.23 with three transactions.

The bet made on the explosive growth of gold prices within the framework of the formation of the 3rd segment of the orange fractal worked (Fig. 4-1).​
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Fig. 4-1​
It is premature to talk now about stopping growth, because the local maximum has not been reached and the 3rd segment of the orange fractal has not been completed, that is, the formation of the 1st segment of the green fractal will continue.

On 10/20/2023, the first three transactions were closed at take profit at 1995.24 (Fig. 4-2).​
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Fig. 4-2​
Trading on FOREX requires diversification not only of market risks, but also of risks associated with brokerage companies. In this regard, it was decided to distribute part of the profit received across three accounts in different currencies and continue trading with the results reflected in the consolidated report in the form of a summary table (Fig. 4-3).​
4_3.png
Fig. 4-3​
“AN” – initial account with a starting deposit of 3USD.

“Costforecast” is an account opened with an initial deposit of 300USD.

“Quotesforecast” – an account opened with an initial deposit of 10’000RUB (104.77USD at the rate of 95.4472).

“Forexforecast” – an account opened with an initial deposit of 1’000CNY (136.61USD at the rate of 7.3201).​

You can monitor transactions carried out on your accounts online by following the links posted on the costforecast website in the “trading signals” section: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/tradingsignals-en/

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Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Entry 5th, 20.10.2023.
005_3.png
Deal with XAU/USD.

As of 10/20/2023, it can be assumed that the current dynamics of gold prices are in an upward trend as part of the formation of the 3rd segment of the orange fractal, which represents the 1st segment of a higher order fractal, indicated in bright green (Fig. 5-1).
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Fig. 5-1​
According to the designated FMFS-I model, the 3rd segment of the orange fractal is close to completion, which indicates an upcoming suspension of the growth of quotations within the framework of the beginning of the formation of the 2nd segment of the bright green fractal, the completion of which may take place in the range (1955; 1990), after which growth should continue, but within the framework of the formation of the 3rd segment of this bright green fractal.

Taking into account these assumptions, a decision was made on the “AN” account to open a long position on the XAU/USD instrument at 1988.59 with a volume of 0.01 lot while placing a pending buy stop order at 2048.59 with a volume of 2048.59 (Fig. 5-2).
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Fig. 5-2
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You can monitor transactions carried out on your accounts online by following the links posted on the costforecast website in the “trading signals” section: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/tradingsignals-en/
Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Entry №6, 20.10.2023.
006_3.png
Deal with XAU/USD.

As of 10/20/2023, the FMFS-I model (Fig. 6-1) of the upcoming dynamics of gold prices suggests the development of a bullish trend as part of the continued formation of the 3rd segment of the fractal, which is indicated in blue, which implies repeated updating of global highs on the chart above the mark $2100 per ounce.
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Fig. 6-1​
Considering the low probability of gold prices falling below 1955, a decision was made on the “costforecast” account to open a long position on the XAU/USD instrument at 1988.71 with a volume of 0.3 lot (Fig. 6-2).​
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Fig. 6-2
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You can monitor transactions carried out on your accounts online by following the links posted on the costforecast website in the “trading signals” section: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/tradingsignals-en/
Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Entry №7 (20.10.2023).
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Deal with CHF/JPY.

As of 10/20/2023, it can be assumed that on the chart of the dynamics of quotes of the CHF/JPY currency pair in the fractal structure on the time interval (09/03/2019; 08/17/2023), the 2nd fractal segment was formed, indicated in red in the form of fractal F№11 (from the Alphabet of Attractors) by a unit of lesser order, which is indicated in green. (Fig. 7-1).​
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Fig. 7-1​

The first segment of the green fractal is indicated by a fractal of one smaller order F№22 in blue on the time interval (09/03/2019; 12/10/2020). The 2nd segment of the green fractal was formed on the time interval (12/10/2020; 03/04/2021). And the green fractal ended with the formation of fractal F№12, which is indicated in blue, on the time interval (03/04/2021; 08/17/2023).

Taking these assumptions into account, we can say that the upward trend for the CHF/JPY instrument has ended and the future dynamics of quotes will be downward as part of the formation of the 3rd segment of the red fractal.

In this case, after August 17, 2023, a fractal is formed in the fractal structure of the chart, which is indicated in pink. Moreover, the 1st and 2nd segments of the pink fractal have already been formed.

Based on these reasoning, after October 20, 2023, there should be a decrease in quotes as part of the formation of the 3rd segment of this pink fractal as part of the formation of the 1st segment of the fractal by a unit of higher order, which is indicated in olive color.

Considering the extremely low probability of the upward trend continuing at a high pace, it was decided to open a short position on the CHF/JPY instrument at 167.876 with a volume of 0.01 lot on the “forexforecast” account (Fig. 7-2).​
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Fig. 7-2
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You can monitor transactions carried out on your accounts online by following the links posted on the costforecast website in the “trading signals” section: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/tradingsignals-en/
Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Entry №8 (20.10.2023).
008_3.png
Deal with EUR/USD.

Analysis of the fractal structure of the graph of the dynamics of quotes of the EUR/USD currency pair as of October 20, 2023 suggests that from September 26, 2022, a fractal, indicated in blue, is being formed (Fig. 8-1).
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Fig. 8-1​
The most likely model of future dynamics of quotes seems to be, according to which two segments of the blue fractal have already been formed and future dynamics will take place in an upward trend within the framework of the formation of the 3rd segment of this fractal.

It can be assumed that the 1st segment of the blue fractal was formed on the time interval (09/26/2022; 07/18/2023) in the form of fractal F№32 (from the Alphabet of Attractors Niro) which has a lower order by one and is indicated in red. The 2nd segment of the blue fractal was formed on the time interval (07/18/2023; 10/03/2023) in the form of fractal F№21, which has an order of one less than the blue fractal and is indicated in purple.

Taking into account these assumptions, the current dynamics of EUR/USD quotes are in the initial stage of formation of the 3rd segment of the blue fractal.

Considering the global fractal structure of the chart, we should not expect a further decline in quotes, so we decided to open a long position on the EUR/USD instrument at 1.05850 with a volume of 0.01 lot on the “quotesforecast” account (Fig. 8-2).
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Fig. 8-2
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See the hidden! More to come.​

You can monitor transactions carried out on your accounts online by following the links posted on the costforecast website in the “trading signals” section: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/tradingsignals-en/
Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Entry №9 (29.11.2023).
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Deal with XAU/USD.
A pending buy stop order with a volume of 0.02 lot at 2048.59 placed on the trading account “AN” for the XAU/USD instrument was triggered on November 29, 2023.

As of November 29, 2023, you should continue to adhere to the FMFS-I model, according to which the dynamics of gold prices will develop in an upward trend as part of the formation of the 3rd segment of the blue fractal (Fig. 9-1).
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Fig. 9-1​
It can be assumed that the fractal indicated in orange was formed on the time interval (08/17/2023; 10/27/2023). This orange fractal can be considered the 1st segment of a fractal of one higher order, which is indicated in bright green (Fig. 9-2).​
9_2.png
Fig. 9-2​
Taking into account the existing fractal structure, we can also assume that in the time interval (10/27/2023; 11/10/2023) the 2nd segment of the bright green fractal was formed and the increase in gold quotations that began on 11/10/2023 occurs within the framework of the formation of the 3rd segment of this bright green fractal. green fractal.

In this case, we should expect continued growth in quotes and the formation of a blue fractal, which will be an integral part of the 3rd segment of the bright green fractal.

The bet on continued growth of gold quotes played out and in addition to the already open long position with a volume of 0.01 lot at around 1988.59, another long position with a volume of 0.02 lot at around 2048.59 was added in anticipation of an explosive growth in quotes and an update of the global maximum (Fig. 9-3).
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Fig. 9-3
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See the hidden! More to come.​

You can monitor transactions carried out on your accounts online by following the links posted on the costforecast website in the “trading signals” section: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/tradingsignals-en/
Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Entry №10 (04.12.2023).
010_3.png
Deal with XAU/USD. Yield 30'008,00%.

In order for two previously opened long positions on the XAU/USD instrument on the “AN” account to be closed with a total profit of 300USD, a take profit order was placed at $2,135.00 per ounce.

On 12/04/2023, gold quotes showed a sharp increase (Fig. 10-1), as a result of which two positions were closed at take profit.​
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Fig. 10-1​
A profit of 300.16 USD was obtained by two transactions with volumes of 0.01 lot and 0.02 lot closed at $2135.05 per ounce (Fig. 10-2).

The first trade with a volume of 0.01 lot brought a profit of 131.28USD due to a price change of 7.36% within 45 days. The second transaction with a volume of 0.02 lot brought a profit of 168.88USD due to a price change of 4.22% within 5 days.​
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Fig. 10-2​
Trading on FOREX requires diversification not only of market risks, but also of risks associated with brokerage companies. In this regard, it was decided to distribute part of the profit received on the “AN” account between two accounts “Priceforecast” and “Marketforecast” in different currencies and continue trading with the results reflected in the consolidated report in the form of a summary table (Fig. 10-3).​
10_3.png
Fig. 10-3​
“AN” – initial account with a starting deposit of 3USD.

“Costforecast” is an account opened with an initial deposit of 300USD.

“Quotesforecast” – an account opened with an initial deposit of 10’000RUB (104.77USD at the rate of 95.4472).

“Forexforecast” – an account opened with an initial deposit of 1’000CNY (136.61USD at the rate of 7.3201).

“Priceforecast” – an account opened with an initial deposit of 15’000RUB (165.91USD at the rate of 90.4105).

“Marketforecast” – an account opened with an initial deposit of 100EUR (108.88USD at the rate of 1.0888).

You can monitor transactions carried out on your accounts online by following the links posted on the costforecast website in the “trading signals” section: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/tradingsignals-en/
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See the hidden! More to come.​

Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/
 

costforecast

Trader
Jan 23, 2022
45
1
24
50
Entry №11 (04.12.2023).
011_3.png
Deal with XAU/USD. Yield 43'393,00 %.

A long position on the XAU/USD instrument with a volume of 0.03 lot at a quote of 1988.71, opened on 10/20/2023 on the “costforecast” account, was closed on 12/04/2023 at a quote of 2137.78 with a sharp explosive increase in gold quotes (Fig. 11-1).​
11_1.png
Fig. 11-1​
The sharp growth gave way to an equally sharp fall, and when the level reached $2108.65 per ounce, a long position with a volume of 0.06 lot was opened.
The purchase decision was based on the assumption that at the time interval (11/29/2023_00:00; 11/30/2023_16:00) the formed fractal F№23, which is indicated in pink, represents the 2nd segment of the forming fractal of one higher order, indicated in blue color (Fig. 11-2). Moreover, the 1st segment of the blue fractal was formed on the time interval (11/13/2023_04:00; 11/29/2023_00:00).
The formation of a blue fractal is based on the assumption that in the time interval (10/27/2023_20:00; 11/13/2023_04:00) a fractal of a higher order was formed, which is indicated in red on the graph.​
11_2.png
Fig. 11-2​
Closing the day on 12/04/2023 showed that the pink fractal on the time interval (11/29/2023_03:00; 11/30/2023_15:00) cannot be the 2nd segment of the blue fractal (Fig. 11-3).
The existing fractal structure of the chart at the end of the trading day still suggests that the dynamics of gold quotes takes place within the framework of the formation of a blue fractal.
11_3.png
Fig. 11-3​
The assumption will be correct if the growth of gold prices continues with the update of the maximum indicated on the chart.
Opening a long position after a sharp rise in quotes is always associated with high risk (Fig. 11-4), but the picture of the global fractal structure of the chart allows us to accept this risk and expect the continuation of the upward trend.
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Fig. 11-4​
A trade with a volume of 0.03 lot brought a profit in the amount of 401.55USD due to a price change of 7.50% within 45 days and allowed the trade profitability indicator to rise to a value of 43393.00% (Fig. 11-5).​
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Fig. 11-5
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See the hidden! More to come.​

You can monitor transactions carried out on your accounts online by following the links posted on the costforecast website in the “trading signals” section: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/tradingsignals-en/
Read all Diary entries on the costforecast website at the link: https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/