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Morning Market Review
EURUSD
The European currency shows a weak corrective growth after a sharp decline in the last five trading sessions. The day before, the EUR/USD pair also traded mainly with downward dynamics and managed to update record lows, approaching the level of 0.9550. Investors are alarmed by the current market developments, which clearly indicate a sharp slowdown in the eurozone economy. Together with similar processes in China and the US, this could lead to a slowdown in the entire global economy. World central banks are actively tightening monetary policy in an attempt to reduce inflation. In particular, another major increase in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve is expected before the end of the year, and the Bank of England, for example, may carry out an unplanned correction of the rate against the backdrop of a record collapse in the national currency. The macroeconomic statistics released yesterday in Germany put additional pressure on the euro positions. IFO Business Climate indicator fell from 88.5 points to 84.3 points, while the forecast was at 87.1 points. In turn, the Current Assessment indicator corrected in September from 97.5 points to 94.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the expected reduction to 96.0 points, and the Economic Expectations index fell from 80.5 points to 75.2 points, although analysts were counting on 78.6 points.
GBPUSD
The British pound is in an upward correction, recovering from a sharp collapse the day before, which led to new record lows. The GBP/USD pair is testing 1.0770 for a breakout, although yesterday the quotes fell below 1.0280. Investors are concerned about the plans of the UK government to carry out a series of active reforms aimed at supporting the country's economy. In particular, earlier the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, presented in Parliament a support plan worth 60.0 billion pounds, which, among other things, provides for the abolition of the increase in income tax for large enterprises from 19% to 25%. It is also reported that the maximum income tax rate in the country will be abolished. Earlier, the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss also presented her proposals to support the economy, advocating subsidizing electricity and heating bills for businesses and households for the next six months.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar shows a subdued increase, recovering from a sharp decline over the past two trading days. The AUD/USD pair is preparing to test 0.6500 for a breakout, having won back about half of the losses at the beginning of the current week. At the same time, the demand for the US dollar remains high, as the risks of a slowdown in the global economy increase. Statistics on business activity in the EU and the UK greatly disappointed investors, and the pound dives to record lows on the back of news about measures to support the economy from the new government. In turn, it is worth noting that the statistics on business activity in Australia released last week turned out to be quite positive and managed to support the cautious optimism of Australian dollar buyers. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.8 to 53.9 in September, while Commonwealth Bank's Services PMI rose from 50.2 points to 50.4 points, while forecasts suggested a decrease to 47.7 points.
USDJPY
The US dollar is trading with multidirectional dynamics, consolidating near the level of 144.50. Corrective sentiment prevails in the market after the increase of the US currency in the last two trading days. Meanwhile, moderate support for the yen at the beginning of the week is provided by relatively optimistic macroeconomic data from Japan. Jibun Bank Services PMI in September rose from 49.5 points to 51.9 points, while forecasts suggested a decline to 49.3 points. In turn, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.5 points to 51.0 points, but still remains above the 50.0 point level, which separates growth from decline. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the US today. It is expected that the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders in August will decrease by 1.1% after a decrease of 0.1%, and the indicator, excluding Defense orders and Transportation, will show near-zero dynamics. In turn, noteworthy data from Japan will appear on Wednesday, when the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan will be published.
XAUUSD
Gold prices show a slight increase, retreating from their April 2020 record lows, updated the day before, and trying to consolidate above 1630.00 amid increasing uncertainty about the global economic outlook. The pressure on the XAU/USD pair remains, as the market expects further tightening of monetary policy by global financial regulators. In particular, the US Federal Reserve may go for at least one more major interest rate hike before the end of the year. In turn, the Bank of England may hold an emergency meeting in order to correct the rate, although it was previously noted that the regulator plans to take a wait-and-see position until November. In turn, the demand for gold is supported by the prospects for an escalation of the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which could lead to increased anti-Russian sanctions.
Morning Market Review
EURUSD
During the Asian session, the European currency is slightly reduced against the US dollar, renewing new record lows and testing the level of 0.9550 for a breakdown. Pressure on the positions of the trading instrument is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics released in Germany at the beginning of the week. The Business Climate Index from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) in September showed a decrease from 88.6 points to 84.3 points with a forecast of 87.1 points, while the Current Assessment indicator for the same period sharply corrected from 97.5 points to 94.5 points, while analysts expected a decline to only 96.0 points. The index of Economic Expectations fell from 80.5 points to 75.2 points, contrary to experts' forecasts of a more significant downward trend of 78.6 points. In addition, the demand for risky assets on the market is noticeably declining against the background of the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine, as traders are waiting for a decision from the political leadership of Russia on the results of referendums held in parts of the occupied territories. In turn, some support for the quotes of the single currency was provided by the rhetoric of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde, who noted the readiness of the regulator to continue raising the interest rate, despite the increased risks of a recession in the economy of the region. At the same time, the official acknowledged that the return of inflation to target levels may require more time than originally predicted.
GBPUSD
The pound continues the downward dynamics of trading during the morning session on September 28, resuming the decline after an uncertain attempt to correct the day before. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is testing 1.0650 for a breakdown, waiting for new drivers to move. On Monday the markets were actively selling the British currency against the background of the announced measures of fiscal easing, which will create a significant burden on the budget of the United Kingdom. On September 22, the Bank of England predicted that after the decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two quarters in a row, the national economy had already entered a technical recession; however, officials adjusted the interest rate to the maximum since 2008 on expectations that inflation could peak just below 11.0% in October. The Treasury, together with the Bank of England, intends to develop a strategy to control the growing debt of the UK against the backdrop of a program previously announced by the country's new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, to subsidize electricity and heating bills for businesses and households for at least six months. Meanwhile, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Price Index released today rose 5.7% year-on-year in August after rising 5.1% in the previous month. At the end of the week, an updated estimate of the country's GDP dynamics for the second quarter will be presented.
XAUUSD
Gold prices are correcting, returning to the "bearish" trend after a slight increase the day before and testing the level of 1625.00. Quotes again closely approached the record lows of April 2020, updated at the beginning of the week, remaining under pressure from the rising dollar, as well as expectations of further interest rate hikes by the world's leading central banks. In particular, before the end of the year, another major increase in the indicator is expected from the US Federal Reserve, and analysts do not exclude that the regulator may decide to adjust immediately by 1.25%. Most likely, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England and others will also continue to tighten monetary policy. In turn, gold is moderately supported by the growing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. At the moment, the markets are awaiting decisions from the Russian leadership in connection with the referendums held in the occupied territories.
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EURUSD
The European currency is trading with multidirectional dynamics, consolidating near 0.9800. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions at the end of the week, but the euro may develop a corrective momentum. The last two trading sessions, the instrument shows a moderate increase, which allowed the EUR/USD pair to retreat from record lows around 0.9530. At the same time, the macroeconomic background from Europe remains negative, and investors are concerned about the rapid slowdown in the region's economy. In Germany, the Consumer Price Index in September rose from 7.9% to 10.0% in annual terms, while markets expected an increase to only 9.4%, and in monthly terms, the figure accelerated from 0.3% to 1.9% , also well ahead of forecasts at 1.3%. The Harmonized Consumer Price Index for the same period rose from 8.8% to 10.9%, contrary to expectations at 10.0%. Additional pressure on quotes was exerted by data on the eurozone: Economic Sentiment Indicator in September decreased from 97.3 points to 93.7 points with a forecast of 95.0 points, and the Services Sentiment indicator for the same period fell from 8.1 points to 4.9 points with expectations of correction only up to 7.0 points.
GBPUSD
The British pound shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near 1.1100. For the last two trading days, the GBP/USD pair has been showing moderate growth, which so far fits into the technical correction after the collapse on September 23 and 26. Significant pressure on the positions of the British currency is exerted by investors' fears regarding the fiscal policy of the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss. Earlier, the official stepped up her rhetoric about the need for tax cuts, while the UK monetary authorities are hastily trying to restore liquidity in the market. However, interventions by the British regulator are unlikely to help significantly improve or somehow change the current situation on the market. This can only provide short-term support for the pound, while the fight against high inflation only becomes more difficult. The focus of investors today is a block of data from the UK on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter: on a quarterly basis, the figure fell from 0.8% to 0.2%, and on an annualized basis it decreased from 8.7% to 4.4%.
XAUUSD
Gold prices practically do not change, consolidating near local highs of September 23 and the level of 1665.00. Notable pressure on the XAU/USD pair is exerted by the rising yield of US government bonds in response to increased market worries about the prospects for global economic growth. Yesterday, the yield of ten-year Treasury securities rose to 3.768% from 3.707% shown at the previous auction. In addition, investors are reacting to signals from the US Federal Reserve about a further increase in interest rates, which so far does not harm the national economy too much. The American regulator, unlike many other world central banks, does not have to worry about the exchange rate of its national currency. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of a block of statistics on the levels of Personal Spending and Income of US households for August.
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EURUSD
The European currency shows mixed dynamics of trading against the US dollar during the Asian session, consolidating near local highs, updated at the end of last week. Then the euro managed to develop corrective growth, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair updated local highs from September 22, rising slightly above 0.9850. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic and news background in the EU remains predominantly negative. Investors are evaluating the prospects for the development of the energy crisis against the backdrop of the heating season, which started on October 1, as well as the possibility of the subsequent operation of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Last Friday, the focus of traders was macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone: the Consumer Price Index in September showed an increase to a new psychological level of 10.0%, while analysts expected an increase of only up to 9.7%, and in August inflation was fixed at 9.1%. On a monthly basis, the value accelerated from 0.6% to 1.2%. Macroeconomic data, however, further strengthened investor confidence that the European Central Bank (ECB) will intensify its "hawkish" rhetoric on the issue of further interest rate hikes.
GBPUSD
The pound is retreating from new local highs of September 23, updated at the end of last week, testing the level of 1.1100 for a breakdown. After a short corrective growth, largely due to technical factors, the British currency is again returning to decline against the backdrop of a difficult situation in the national economy. The newly elected government, led by Liz Truss, is trying to offset the effects of the energy crisis and the growing discontent of the citizens, proposing a plan to massively reduce the fiscal burden on households, but analysts fear that this could lead to a sharp increase in government borrowing and collapse the pound even more. The Bank of England met the government's proposals with great skepticism and was forced to announce foreign exchange interventions in order to support the pound. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was also critical, noting that such measures could cause a sharp rise in inflation. In addition, the plan to change the fiscal burden will mostly affect wealthy Britons. Also, Truss intends to implement a program to subsidize electricity and heating bills. According to experts, such measures could cost the country's budget an additional 100.0 billion pounds.
Gold
Quotes of the XAUUSD pair are holding near the level of 1660.0, receiving moderate support from the corrective weakening of the US dollar at the end of last week, but the "bulls" still remained under pressure. In addition, gold is still reacting negatively to the rising yields of US government bonds. It is likely that this week the precious metal will return to the downward plane, as the world's leading financial regulators continue their policy of tightening monetary conditions. On Tuesday, October 4, a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held, which may adjust the interest rate from 2.35% to 2.85%, and the next day, officials of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably increase the rate from 3.0% to 3.5%. At the end of the week, investors will be watching the rhetoric of the representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, hoping to hear plans for further tightening of monetary policy against the background of increased inflation to 10.0% in the EU. It is worth noting the high interest in gold from British investors after the plan announced by the national Ministry of Finance to reduce the fiscal burden in the context of the energy crisis. Long positions in the asset contrast sharply with the "bearish" sentiment in the precious metals market, as XAU/USD quotes have lost 11% since the beginning of the year, which was facilitated by the "hawkish" policy of the US Federal Reserve. However, the precious metals' status as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation keeps high demand from retail investors.
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EURUSD
During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is correcting slightly after a steady growth the day before, trading near 0.9960 and holding on to local highs from September 20. The euro is heading towards the psychological level of parity with the dollar, but so far the "bulls" are only acting on the weakening of the US currency, while the fundamental background remains negative. In particular, at the beginning of the week, investors drew attention to a further decline in business activity in the euro area in the manufacturing sector. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI corrected in September from 48.5 points to 48.4 points, while the same indicator in Germany fell from 49.1 points to 47.8 points amid a decrease in consumer demand for goods, as well as production restrictions due to growth in the cost of electricity, which turned out to be worse than the neutral market forecasts. Today, traders drew attention to the data on producer inflation in the eurozone in August. As expected, in monthly terms, the Producer Price Index rose from 4.0% to 5.0%, and in annual terms it increased from 38.0% to 43.3%, while the forecast was 43.2%. On Wednesday, European investors are waiting for the publication of a block of data on the dynamics of Imports and Exports from Germany, as well as statistics on business activity in the Services sector.
GBPUSD
The pound is slightly reduced during the morning session, retreating from the local highs of September 15, updated the day before. The British currency, like many others against the US dollar, has been showing a smooth corrective growth since last week, receiving support both from technical factors and from a decrease in the yield of US Treasury bonds, as well as from the decision of the United Kingdom government to revise its plans for reducing the fiscal burden after large-scale criticism. In particular, officials are likely to abandon the idea of reducing income tax for the wealthiest segments of the population. The focus of investors on Wednesday is a block of data on business activity in the Services sector from S&P Global. Current forecasts suggest that the indicator will remain unchanged at 49.2 points, but skeptics insist on a further decrease in the level of activity. With the opening of the US session, the focus will shift to similar data from the US, where the release of a report from the company Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on employment in the private sector is also expected during the day.
XAUUSD
Quotes of the XAU/USD pair are being corrected from the local high of September 13, updated the day before, when the instrument consolidated above 1.7 thousand dollars per troy ounce amid a depreciation of the American currency. In particular, investors drew attention to the fall in the yield of government bonds: 10-year bonds fell to 3.615% during trading on Tuesday, while at the beginning of the week the yield exceeded 3.8%. Moderate support for gold on the eve was provided by weak macroeconomic data from the US. Factory Orders in August reflected a zero trend after falling by 1.0% in July, while analysts expected growth to 0.3%. JOLTS Job Openings in August also were disappointing, showing a decline from 11.17 million to 10.053 million. On Wednesday, the market will focus on Automatic Data Processing's (ADP) private sector employment report, as well as the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) September data set on US service sector business activity.
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EURUSD
The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near 0.9730. Market activity remains relatively low as US stock exchanges are closed for Columbus Day. The single currency noticeably weakened in the second half of last week after the publication of Friday's report on the US labor market, which confirmed the commitment of the US Federal Reserve to the course of further tightening of monetary policy. Thus, in September, 263.0 thousand new jobs were created after 315.0 thousand recorded in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth of the indicator by only 250.0 thousand. At the same time, the Average Hourly Earnings in September maintained a monthly growth rate of 0.3%, but slowed down in annual terms from 5.2% to 5.0%. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5%, while investors did not expect any changes. Weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany put additional pressure on the instrument. Retail Sales fell 1.3% in August after increasing 1.9% a month earlier, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.0%. In annual terms, the decline in sales accelerated from -2.6% to -4.3%, which turned out to be slightly better than experts' forecasts at the level of -5.1%.
GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with multidirectional dynamics, holding near the level of 1.1070. The "bears" took a break after a three-day decline in the instrument, which did not allow the GBP/USD pair to consolidate on new local highs from September 15. In turn, the pound remains under pressure after the publication of a rather strong report on the US labor market for September last Friday, which strengthened investor confidence that the US Federal Reserve will continue its policy of raising interest rates. However, the pace of monetary tightening is likely to depend on the specific situation at any given moment. Investors also expect tomorrow's publication of the report on the UK labor market for August-September. Forecasts suggest that the Average Hourly Earnings excluding Bonus in August could accelerate from 5.2% to 5.3%. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate is likely to remain at the same level of 3.6%, and the Claimant Count in September may fall sharply by 11.4 thousand after rising by 6.3 thousand in the previous month.
XAUUSD
Gold prices are falling at the beginning of the week, developing a "bearish" momentum, formed in the middle of last week, when the instrument updated its local highs from September 12. Pressure on the quotes of the XAU/USD pair is exerted by a strong report on the US labor market published at the end of last week, which gives the US Federal Reserve a certain degree of freedom in the matter of further tightening of monetary policy. The report showed a decrease in the Unemployment Rate from 3.7% in August to 3.5% in September, while Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 263.0 thousand, which was slightly better than the expected 250.0 thousand. According to CME Group surveys, more than 80% of analysts expect the US Federal Reserve to raise the rate by another 0.75% in early November, and about 18% believe that the value will be adjusted by 0.50%. Pressure on gold is also exerted by the actions of other global regulators. In particular, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) are also set to continue aggressively raising interest rates as inflationary pressures intensify in the regions.
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