Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (08:00 GMT)

Mar 9, 2010
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EUR/USD

Moves in a near-term corrective mode after extending one-week rally from 1.2622, 13 Jan low, to 1.2984, just ahead of psychological barrier at 1.3000, also Fib 38.2% of 1.3547/1.2622 downleg. Overnight’s gap lower opening signals selling pressure, as gap remains unfilled before Europe’s opening. Hourly studies are negative, with 20 day SMA maintaining near-term weakness. Initial support at 1.2877, previous resistance, so far holds the downside, with break lower to expose next significant support at 1.2840, 19 Jan higher platform / Fib 38.2% of 1.2622/1.2984 ascend, loss of which and 1.2800 handle, to weaken near-term structure. On the upside, initial resistances lie at 1.2900/50, regain of which to re-focus 1.2984/3000 and signal a resumption of short-term uptrend.

Res: 1.2907, 1.2949, 1.2984, 1.3000
Sup: 1.2875, 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2750

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GBP/USD

Consolidates recent gains, after clearance of strong resistance at 1.5500, 10 Jan lower top / Fib 61.8% of 1.5668/1.5233 decline, extended gains to levels just under next significant barrier at 1.5600, daily 55 day SMA. Dips are so far holding above hourly 20 day SMA, with further easing towards 1.5500, now reverted to support, not ruled out, as hourly studies are losing traction. Higher low above 1.5500 would signal fresh attempt higher and test of 1.5600, while only loss of breakpoint at 1.5450/40 zone, also Fib 38.2% of 1.5233/1.5572 upleg, would sideline short-term bulls.

Res: 1.5500, 1.5523, 1.5580, 1.5600
Sup: 1.5526, 1.5500, 1.5450, 1.5415

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USD/JPY

Maintains short-term positive structure after fresh gains broke above initial 77.00 barrier and tested key resistance zone at 77.20/30. Corrective dips remain contained by 20 day SMA, with price hovering at 77.00 level and keeping the near-term focus at 77.30. Break here to trigger stronger rally and expose 77.40, daily 55 day SMA, ahead of next strong resistance zone at 78.00/20. On the downside, loss of 76.90/75 to weaken near-term tone and re-focus key short-term support at 76.50.

Res: 77.07, 77.29, 77.32, 77.40
Sup: 76.90, 76.85, 76.75, 76.65

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USD/CHF

Near-term price action shows the pair in recovery mode after suffering heavy losses that resulted in test of very important support at 0.9300, where losses were contained for now. Bounce remains supported by 20 day SMA on hourly chart, with today’s gap-higher opening, suggesting further recovery towards next strong barrier at 0.9400, 19 Jan high / Fib 38.2% of 0.9573/0.9304 decline, where reversal is anticipated, as wider picture’s tone remains negative. Loss of 0.9300 to open 0.9242 and 0.9200 next, while sustained break above 0.9400 would signal stronger recovery and expose 0.9445 next.

Res: 0.9376, 0.9400, 0.9413, 0.9445
Sup: 0.9357, 0.9338, 0.9323, 0.9304

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Mar 9, 2010
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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

EUR/USD

Maintains short-term bullish structure after pullback from last Friday’s high left higher low at 1.2875, previous high and strong support, ahead of fresh strength through 1.3000, psychological support. Market is approaching key barrier at 1.3080 zone, 03 Jan high / Fib 50% of 1.3547/1.2622 descend, break of which to extend recovery and expose next significant resistance at 1.3145 Oct 2011 low. Initial support lies at 1.2984, with 20 day SMA at 1.2945, maintaining short-term bulls. Only loss of breakpoint at 1.2875 would weaken short-term tone.

Res: 1.3050, 1.3075, 1.3100, 1.3145
Sup: 1.3000, 1.2984, 1.2950, 1.2900


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GBP/USD

The pair’s one-week rally from 1.5233, 13 Jan low, accelerated after break through strong barrier at 1.5500, to test 1.5600, figure resistance / daily 55 day SMA, where gains ran out of steam. The pullback is seen corrective while support zone at 1.5515/00 hold the downside, with gains through 1.5600 to open strong resistance zone at 1.5670, highs of 03/04 Jan / 90 day SMA / main bear trendline, drawn off 1.6617 peak, for test. Only loss of 1.5500 would weaken short-term structure.

Res: 1.5578, 1.5600, 1.5668, 1.5678
Sup: 1.5536, 1.5515, 1.5500, 1.5450

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USD/JPY

Enters again narrow range directionless trading, after upside stays capped at 77.30 zone and temporary support found above key support at 76.50. Near-term studies are neutral, however, larger timeframes outlook remains skewed to the downside, as daily 90 day SMA continues to cap the upside, with risk seen towards 76.50, loss of which to trigger further weakness and expose next support at 76.00.

Res: 77.07, 77.32, 77.50, 78.00
Sup: 76.85, 76.75, 76.65, 76.50

usdjpy_20120124074814.gif



USD/CHF

The near-term price action sees the pair consolidating recent heavy losses that so far reached 0.9250 low. Narrow consolidation holds below 0.9300, initial resistance, with negative short-term studies keeping the downside favored. Next targets lie at 0.9200, Fib 38.2% of 0.8566/0.9593, ahead of 90 day SMA, currently at 0.9170. Only lift above 0.9300, previous low and dynamic resistance of 20 day SMA, currently at 0.9330, would delay immediate bears, while regain of 0.9376/0.9400 is required to confirm near-term basing.

Res: 0.9300, 0.9323, 0.9376, 0.9400
Sup: 0.9250, 0.9242, 0.9200, 0.9170

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Mar 9, 2010
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EUR/USD

Extends the short-term uptrend, after two days congestion under 1.3061/75 resistance zone. Fresh strength was boosted by yesterday’s FOMC release, surging through 1.3075 and 1.3100, en-route to the next significant barrier at 1.3145, 04 Oct 2011 low and currently testing daily 55 day SMA at 1.3124. Short-term positive sentiment keeps the upside favored, though overextended near-term conditions may slow the rally. Daily structure continues to improve after break above 20 day SMA, with fresh momentum and MACD emerging above the centerlines, suggesting further recovery. Clearance of 1.3145 to open 1.3200 next. On the downside, key support remains at 1.2875, with initial supports lie at 1.3075/61 and 1.3000.

Res: 1.3145, 1.3196, 1.3211, 1.3258
Sup: 1.3100, 1.3075, 1.3061, 1.3000

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GBP/USD

The pair resumes short-term uptrend from 1.5233, 13 Jan low, after corrective pullback from 1.5627 was contained at initial support at 1.5530, where fresh strength emerged. Rally through 1.5620/27 barrier, daily Ichimoku cloud base / 24 Jan previous high, is currently testing next strong resistance zone at 1.5760/70, daily 90 day SMA / 03 Jan high / main bear trendline off 1.617 high, with sustained break higher to expose 1.5700, Fib 50% of 1.6164/1.5233 descend, ahead of very strong resistance at 1.5770 zone, Dec’s range ceiling, also near Fib 61.8%. Overextended hourly studies suggest corrective pullback, with initial supports at 1.5627, also 20 day SMA and 1.5600. Key short-term support zone lies at 1.5535/00.

Res: 1.5677, 1.5700, 1.5770, 1.5800
Sup: 1.5627, 1.5600, 1.5550, 1.5530

gbpusd_20120126075259.gif




USD/JPY

USD/JPY has erased over half of its latest strong rally that ended testing key med-term resistance zone at 78.20/30, after release of dollar negative FOMC data accelerated losses through initial support at 77.60, also broken bear-trendline. Negative near-term sentiment keeps the pair under pressure for extension lower and test of strong supports at 77.40/32, Fib 61.8% / previous highs, loss of which to confirm top and signal return to previous 77.32/76.85 range. Initial resistances lie at 77.80 and 78.00 and only break above the latter to ease near-term bear pressure.

Res: 77.80, 78.00, 78.27, 78.40
Sup: 77.50, 77.32, 77.00, 76.85

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USD/CHF

Resumes the downtrend off 0.9600 resistance zone, after near-term consolidative/corrective phase failed to sustain gains above initial resistance at .9300, leaving a lower top under strong barrier at 0.9376, ahead of sharp fall under our initial target at 0.9200, Fib 38.2% of 0.8566/0.9593. Negative short-term structure keeps the downside favored, with break below 0.9178, 90 day SMA to expose 0.9100, then 0.9075/64, Fib 50% / 30 Nov 2011 low. Oversold 1 and 4H conditions, however, suggest corrective action preceding fresh weakness, with 0.9230/50 offering initial resistance and 20 day SMA, currently at 0.9275, expected to cap the upside.

Res: 0.9233, 0.9250, 0.9268, 0.9300
Sup: 0.9193, 0.9178, 0.9150, 0.9100

usdchf_20120126075221.gif
 
Mar 9, 2010
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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (09:00 GMT)

EUR/USD

The near-term price action shows the pair in corrective pullback after extending two-week uptrend. Regain of significant barriers at 1.3145 and 1.3200, where daily Ichimoku cloud was briefly penetrated, sees scope for further extension higher. The pair so far reached 1.3232, exactly 38.2% retracement of 1.4246/1.2622 descend, looking for test of 1.3300, possibly 1.3429/58, Fib 50% / 08 Dec high, on a break. Dips have so far found footstep at 1.3135, ahead of figure support at 1.3100 and 1.3080, 27 Jan higher platform / Fib 50% of 1.2930/1.3232 ascend that should keep the downside protected for now.

Res: 1.3196, 1.3232, 1.3250, 1.3300
Sup: 1.3100, 1.3080, 1.3061, 1.3045

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GBP/USD

Reverses lower after renewed attempt above 1.5700 barrier failed to sustain gains. Pullback of marginally fresh high at 1.5739 vs previous one at 1.5733, dipped below 1.5700 handle, so far holding above initial supports at 1.5660/40, with next array of support standing at 1.5625/00, where also main bull trendline lies. Near-term studies are losing momentum and risk break below 1.5600 that may signal short-term bulls on hold, while reversal above 1.5600 would keep 1.5770, critical resistance, in focus.

Res: 1.5700, 1.5733, 1.5770, 1.5800
Sup: 1.5672, 1.5660, 1.5640, 1.5625

gbpusd_20120130090342.gif




USD/JPY

Maintains negative near-term sentiment after upside rejection at key barrier at 78.20/30 zone, with subsequent strong reversal losing important support at 77.00. Dip below the later now risks test of very important level at 76.50, med-term range floor, below which to open way for test of 76.00 zone initially and possibly posting fresh record lows. Corrective actions are seen limited at 77.00/30 zone for now.

Res: 76.85, 77.00, 77.28, 77.60
Sup: 76.65, 76.50, 76.10, 76.00

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USD/CHF

Continues to head south, extending short-term bears from 0.9600 zone, where gains were capped, to post fresh low at 0.9113 last Friday, just ahead of our next downside target at 0.9100 / 0.9075, figure support / Fib 50% of 0.8566/0.9695 ascend. Corrective bounce on oversold near-term conditions, faces initial barrier at 0.9200, also 20 day SMA, while gains are likely to stay capped at 0.9230 zone, 24 Jan low / 27 Jan high, before fresh push lower, as studies on larger timeframes are entering negative territory. Loss of 0.9100 support to open 0.9075/64, Fibonacci level / 30 Nov low and possibly signal broader weakness towards 0.9000 and 0.8955, Fib 61.8% on a break. Only regain of 0.9300/38 barriers would provide relief.

Res: 0.9175, 0.9200, 0.9215, 0.9230
Sup: 0.9134, 0.9113, 0.9100, 0.9075

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Mar 9, 2010
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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (15:00 GMT)

EUR/USD

Extends pullback from last Friday’s closing, when the pair hit fresh high at 1.3232. Further easing broke below 1.3100 handle, currently testing strong support zone at 1.3080, Jan higher platform / Fib 50% of 1.2930/1.3232 ascend, with risk of extension towards 1.3060/45, main bull trendline / Fib 61.8%, possibly to 1.3000, as hourly Bollingers are widening. Hourly studies maintain negative tone, with oversold conditions suggesting corrective bounce. Immediate barrier lies at 1.3165 zone, also 20 day SMA and only sustained break here to improve near-term structure.

Res: 1.3131, 1.3165, 1.3196, 1.3232
Sup: 1.3075, 1.3061, 1.3045, 1.3000

eurusd_20120130151133.gif




GBP/USD
Remains under pressure after today’s recovery attempt off 1.5653, where a temporary support was found, failed under 1.5700 barrier, also 20 day SMA, reversing back to 1.5650, strong support zone. Holding above here, would keep possibility of fresh rally and extension of broader uptrend, with clearance of 1.5700 required to expose 1.5739, ahead of critical barrier at 1.5770. Failure to break above 1.5700, however, would risk fresh weakness and expose 1.5615/00, main bull trendline / figure support.

Res: 1.5700, 1.5724, 1.5739, 1.5770
Sup: 1.5653, 1.5640, 1.5625, 1.5600

gbpusd_20120130151112.gif




USD/JPY
Continues to spiral lower after losing very strong support at 76.50 that kept the downside protected for past two months. Hourly studies in the negative territory, keep the downside favored, with initial target at 76.10/00 now in focus, after the pair posted fresh 3-month low at 76.30. Possibility of Bank of Japan’s intervention is getting higher, however, no official comments for now. On the upside, 76.75/85 offers initial barriers, ahead of 77.00/20, that is expected to cap.

Res: 76.50, 76.65, 76.85, 77.00
Sup: 76.30, 76.10, 76.00, 75.56

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USD/CHF

Near-term recovery attempt from today’s fresh low at 0.9113, broke briefly above 0.9200, initial barrier. Hourly structure remains supportive for further gains, with regain of 0.9230, also Fib 23.6% of 0.9573/0.9113 descend, required to spark stronger recovery. Weakening studies on larger timeframes, however, keep the downside under pressure and risk further reversal, with 0.9100/0.9075 seen next.

Res: 0.9208, 0.9230, 0.9250, 0.9268
Sup: 0.9160, 0.9134, 0.9113, 0.9100

usdchf_20120130151029.gif
 
Mar 9, 2010
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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

EUR/USD

Returns to strength, regaining levels just under 1.3200, after yesterday’s pullback from fresh high at 1.3232 was contained at 1.3075, strong support, 27 Jan higher platform / Fib 50% of 1.2930/1.3232 ascend. Some positive tones that came from Greece, keep the single currency supported, however clearance of 1.3232, previous high / Fib 38.2% of 1.4246/1.2622, to signal a resumption of short-term bull-trend and open 1.3300/40, figure resistance / 90 day SMA, next. Positive hourly studies suggest further gains, however, corrective dips are likely. Immediate support lies at 1.3145, 20 day SMA and 1.3111, while only loss of 1.3075/60 support zone, would delay bulls.

Res: 1.3197, 1.3232, 1.3258, 1.3300
Sup: 1.3145, 1.3132, 1.3111, 1.3100

eurusd_20120131074829.gif





GBP/USD

Retests previous highs and strong barrier at 1.5740 zone, just ahead of very strong resistance at 1.5770, after correction lower was contained by 90 day SMA at 1.5650 zone. Clearance of the latter to signal fresh phase higher, as this will signal a break above two- month range that was capped at 1.5770. Near-term studies remain supportive, but overbought, while daily studies keep strong bullish tone. Dynamic support at 1.5700, 20 day SMA, underpins, while only break below 1.5650/40 zone, previous lows / main bull trendline, would risk stronger weakness.

Res: 1.5753, 1.5770, 1.5800, 1.5850
Sup: 1.5724, 1.5700, 1.5676, 1.5653

gbpusd_20120131074810.gif




USD/JPY

The pair slumps to the levels close to 76.00 support, after upside rejection at 78.30 zone, previous range ceiling / 200 day SMA, triggered sharp reversal. Short-term outlook remains negative, with possible extension below 76.00 and test of record low at 75.56, posted on 31 Oct 2011, seen as likely scenario. However, possibility of Bank of Japan’s action is also quite high, as main support at 76.50 has been lost. Corrective bounces on oversold near-term conditions, face resistance at 76.50/75, with 20 day SMA, currently at 76.85, limiting the upside for now.

Res: 76.50, 76.65, 76.75, 76.85
Sup: 76.16, 76.10, 76.00, 75.56

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USD/CHF

Remains under pressure, maintaining short-term negative structure, after corrective bounce from last Friday’s fresh low at 0.9113 was capped by descending 20 day SMA at 0.9208, just ahead of initial barrier at 0.9227, Friday’s high / Fib 23.6% of 0.9573/0.9113 descend. While the latter stays intact, downside risk towards 0.9113 / 0.9100 dominates, with break lower to trigger fresh extension of short-term bear-trend and expose Fib 50% at 0.9075 and figure support at 0.9000.

Res: 0.9165, 0.9188, 0.9208, 0.9227
Sup: 0.9128, 0.9113, 0.9100, 0.9075

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