LiteForex Analytics

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair tried to enter the upward correction. It is now trading around 1.3960. The pound is supported by a reduction in public sector borrowing. In March, the indicator was –0.262 billion pounds. Thus, Chancellor Hammond continues the policy of reducing government spending and borrowing, which began after the referendum on Brexit.
The investors are focused on Brexit negotiations. The main discussion goes within the British government and the Parliament, which is persuading Theresa May to let the UK stay in the Customs Union, while a number of key ministers, including David Davis and Boris Johnson, insists on the immediate leaving it. Today Brexit Minister Davis again claimed that after leaving Customs Union, UK will benefit a lot and can increase the country’s share in the world trade. He also noted that after the end of Brexit process, a number of bilateral trade agreements can be made with different counties, for example, with Canada.

Support and resistance

Technical picture is mixed. In case of the breakdown of the level of 1.3916 (Murray [2/8]), the price can fall to the levels of 1.3793 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.3671 (Murray [0/8]), which is confirmed by MACD, ready to enter the negative zone, and Bollinger Bands, reversing downwards. However, Stochastic is reversing in the oversold area, so a correction can develop to the middle line of Bollinger Bands to the area of 1.4090 or 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.4090, 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3671.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.4000 with the targets at 1.4090 and 1.4160 and stop loss near the level of 1.3960.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3916 with the targets at 1.3793, 1.3671 and stop loss around 1.3950.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The pair weakened to the level of 1.2170, where it is now trading, waiting for European regulator’s decision.
In the absence of significant economic statistics releases, investors are preparing for the ECB meeting, which will be held on Thursday. Interest rate change is not expected. Moreover, regarding the recent weak economic data on inflation, retail sales and industrial production in the Eurozone, the regulator can delay the curtailment of the QE program. In these conditions, more attention will be paid to the text of the accompanying statement and the press conference of Mario Draghi, who may hint at further steps of the ECB.
Chinese-American trade conflict is developing. According to The Wall Street Journal, another smartphones producer in China, Huawei, can be limited in US accessories supplies and be prohibited from Android software. Earlier ZTE was limited this way, but Beijing did not respond yet.

Support and resistance

The technical picture is mixed. The price has left the main Murray trade range and has fallen below the level of 1.2207 (Murray [0/8]), which reflects the possibility of a correction to the levels of 1.2268 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.2329 (Murray [2/8]). Stochastic confirms it, reversing upwards in the oversold area. However, the growth of MACD in the negative zone and the downward reversal of Bollinger Bands reflect the development of the downward trend to the level of 1.2085 (Murray [–2/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2207, 1.2268, 1.2329.
Support levels: 1.2146, 1.2085.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2207 with the targets at 1.2268, 1.2329 and stop loss around 1.2170.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2146 with the target at 1.2085 and stop loss near the level of 1.2180.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Last week, oil prices were trading within the range of 74.21–72.65 (Murray [7/8]–[5/8]).
US Administration is giving controversial signals. At the end of the last week, in his Twitter, Donald Trump claimed, that the US would not accept artificially overpriced oil, which has led to the correction. However, this week American President claimed that he was intended to terminate the nuclear deal with Iran and imply new sanction against the third largest OPEC exporter. The execution of the plans will deprive the oil market of a great share of supply in a short term, which will support the prices. Iran is already having problems with sales. Companies would not make Iranian oil and petroleum products supply contracts, valid later than May, 12. The date is the deadline for the USA to make decisions on the new sanctions.
Macroeconomic background is negative. According to API, US oil resources grew by 1.099 million barrel this week, according to EIA – by 2.170 million barrel. As the prices consolidated above the level of 70 USD per barrel, US shale oil producers are increasing the production. Today, Baker Hughes Rig Count will be published. Last week the number was 820 units.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is pointed downwards. MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. The price is expected to move within the sideways channel.
Support levels: 73.43, 72.65, 71.87.
Resistance levels: 74.21, 75.00, 75.78.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 73.43 with the targets at 72.65, 72.00 and stop loss 73.70.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 73.70 with the targets at 74.21, 75.00 and stop loss near the level of 73.40.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The British currency is under pressure of negative data on GDP in the UK in Q1. In quarterly terms, the indicator decreased from 0.4% to 0.1%, and in the annual one - from 1.4% to 1.2%. Thus, the negative data for GDP was added to the latest negative data on industrial production, the growth of wages, inflation and retail sales, and now investors see fewer chances of raising the interest rate by the Bank of England at the next May meeting.
Additional pressure on the Pound was caused by changes in the UK government. On Monday, Sajid Javid was appointed as the new Home Secretary, who is, unlike his predecessor Amber Rudd, a Eurosceptic supporting country’s departure from the European Union. His appointment shifts the balance in Theresa May’s cabinet towards Brexit supporters, which could complicate and protract the negotiations.

Support and resistance

At present, the price remains in the region of 1.3720 and has the potential to fall further, especially if data on the Markit Manufacturing PMI for April, which is due on Tuesday, comes out weak (the index is expected to decline from 55.1 to 54.8 points). In this case, the price could reach the levels of 1.3549 (Murray [-1/8]) and 1.3427 (Murray [-2/8]). A breakout of the level of 1.3793 (Murray [1/8]) could lead to a growth towards the levels of 1.3916 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.4038 (Murray [3/8], middle MA of the Bollinger Bands).
Support levels: 1.3671, 1.3549, 1.3427.
Resistance levels: 1.3793, 1.3916, 1.4038.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3671 with targets at 1.3549, 1.3427 and stop-loss at 1.3710. Validity – 5-7 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3793 with targets at 1.3916, 1.4038 and stop-loss at 1.3750. Validity – 5-7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI keeps growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is trying to turn down, substantially diverging with the price dynamics.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is growing as well, having broken out its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 7480.0 (local lows), 7435.0 (local lows), 7377.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7595.0 (June 2017 highs), 7645.0 (local highs), 7700.0 (December 2017 highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching a strong resistance near 7595.0. There is a chance of a downward reverse, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7600.0 with targets at 7645.0, 7700.0 and stop-loss at 7570.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7480.0 with targets at 7435.0, 7377.0 and stop-loss at 7515.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes show mixed dynamics.
After growing at the beginning of the week related to Iran's accusations of secretly developing nuclear weapons, they drastically corrected to 72.20 mark. On Wednesday, the instrument was under pressure from the EIA weekly report on US oil reserves. According to the release, the stock of crude oil increased by 6.218 million barrels, significantly exceeding forecasts. Gasoline stocks also rose by 1.171 million barrels instead of the expected reduction. The volume of oil production in the US reached 10.619 million barrels per day.
At present, investors are focused on the development of the situation surrounding the Iran nuclear deal: Donald Trump intends to leave it and introduce new sanctions. Representatives of the Islamic Republic said that in this case the agreement would lose its meaning and enrichment of uranium in Iran could be resumed, which would undoubtedly lead to increased tensions in the region and support for oil prices. Trump defined May 12 as the deadline for the final decision on the nuclear deal.

Support and resistance

Currently, the price tends to the level of 71.87 (Murray [6/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). In its breakdown, the decline may continue to 70.30 (Murray [5/8]) and 68.75 (Murray [4/8]) marks. However, Stochastic approaching the oversold zone suggests a possible beginning of growth to the levels of 75.00 (Murray [7/8]) and 76.56 (Murray [8/8]).
Support levels: 71.87, 70.30, 68.75.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00, 75.56.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 71.87 with targets at 70.30, 68.75 and stop-loss at 72.40.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 73.43 with the target at 75.00 and stop-loss at 73.00.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair dropped to the area of the lower border of the main trading range to the level of 1.1962 ([0/8]), where it is still traded.
The American currency is affected by the number of contradicting factors. On the one hand, it is pressured by the results of the Fed meeting. The interest rate remained unchanged at the previous level of 1.75% while in the statement investors didn’t see any hints on an acceleration of the pace of its increases. At the same time, it was noted that inflation is close to its target level of 2.0%, economic risks are balanced, and the current state of the economy assumes further rate hikes. On the other hand, the Dollar is supported by a start of negotiations between the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Vice Premier of China Liu He in Beijing. Direct negotiations between officials of their status give investors room for optimism, though experts warn not to expect immediate results.
Today the market is waiting for the publication of April data on the American labor market. Unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.1% to 4.0%, and the number of non-farm jobs to increase from 103K to 192K.

Support and resistance

The technical picture is uncertain. Bollinger Bands diverge, confirming the downtrend, and MACD histogram grows in the negative zone, indicating that the decline may continue to 1.1900 and 1.1840 marks. However, one cannot exclude an upward correction to 1.2085 and 1.2146 marks.
Support levels: 1.1962, 1.1900, 1.1840.
Resistance levels: 1.2023, 1.2085, 1.2146.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 1.1950 mark with targets at 1.1900, 1.1840 and stop-loss at 1.2000.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2023 with targets of 1.2085, 1.2146 and the stop-loss at 1.1980.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is trying to consolidate above the level of 75.00 ([8/8]). In this case, the price can grow to the levels of 76.56 ([+1/8]) and 78.12 ([+2/8]). Technical indicators are still reflecting the development of growth, Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointed upwards, and MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone.
However, the level of 75.00 is the upper border of the main trading Murray range, so the beginning of the downward correction to the levels of 73.43 ([7/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), and 71.87 ([6/8]) is possible.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 73.43 ([7/8]), 71.87 ([6/8]).
Support levels: 75.78 ([+2/8], H4), 76.56 ([+1/8]), 78.12 ([+2/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 75.78 with the targets at 76.56, 78.12 and stop loss around 75.20.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 74.60 with the targets at 73.43, 71.87 and stop loss near the level of 75.00.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues to decline for the third consecutive week and today has reached its lowest level since December at 1.1870 mark.

EUR is crushed by weak data on GDP, inflation, and retail sales in the Eurozone. USD is supported by the expectation that the Fed will continue to raise the interest rate.
Today, the market is focused on the statements of American politicians. At the conference in Switzerland, the Fed head Jerome Powell noted that the market has already received a signal about intention to increase rates and should no longer be surprised at these actions. In the evening, President Trump should announce his decision on the Iranian nuclear deal. Experts believe that the US will withdraw from the agreement. Then, new sanctions may be introduced or the parties may try to conclude a new treaty. Other participants - France, Britain, and Iran - are strongly opposed to unilateral actions by the US, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that the termination of the agreement would be a historical mistake. Breaking the deal could put pressure on USD and substantially support oil prices.

Support and resistance

The instrument tends to 1.1840 mark (Murray [-2/8]) and, in its breakdown, can continue the decline to 1.1780 (Murray [1/8], H4) and 1.1715 (Murray [8/8], W1) marks. With a reverse breakout of 1.1900 mark (Murray [-1/8]), an upward correction 1.1962 (Murray [0/8]) 1.2023 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.2085 (Murray [2/8]) marks is likely to develop.
Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1780, 1.1715.
Resistance levels: 1.1962, 1.2023, 1.2085.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 1.1840 with targets at 1.1780, 1.1715 and stop-loss at 1.1880.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.1910 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2023 and the stop-loss at 1.1870.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

During the week, oil prices were growing and now are trading around 71.50 after EIA Crude Oil Stocks change release on Wednesday, which decreased more than expected, by 2.197 million barrel. Gas resources decreased by 2.055 million barrel and distillates – by 6.674 million barrel.
The investors are focused on Iran. After America left Iranian nuclear agreement, the traders expect Trump administration to imply sanctions, which can significantly restrict Iranian oil export. Now it is the third OPEC country, which shares 4% of the world oil market and exports 3.8 million barrel per day. US sanctions can make a shortage in the market, which can be used by competitors. Saudi Arabia can increase the production: its representatives have stated they would cooperate with “black gold” consumers to minimize the effect form Iranian oil supply decrease. Iranian quota within OPEC+ Agreement can be redistributed. The Organization plans to discuss it at the end of the month. US shale oil producers can increase its part, too.

Support and resistance

The key “bullish” level if 71.87 (Murray [8/8]), the breakout of which will let the price grow to the levels of 72.65 (Murray [+1/8]) and 73.43 (Murray [+2/8]). However, the reversal of Stochastic in the overbought area allows the development of the correction to the levels of 70.31 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 69.53 (Murray [5/8]).
Resistance levels: 71.87, 72.65, 73.43.
Support levels: 71.09, 70.30, 69.53.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 71.87 with the targets at 72.65, 73.43 and stop loss near the level of 71.50.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 71.09 with the targets at 70.30, 68.75 and stop loss 71.50.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the instrument rebounded from the 0.7446 mark ([5/8]) and approaches the level of 0.7568 ([6/8]) near the midline of Bollinger Bands. It is seen as the key for "bulls", its breakout can lead to an increase to the area of 0.7690 ([7/8]) and 0.7812 ([8/8]) marks. Otherwise, the price may return to the May lows in the area of 0.7446 and fall below the level of 0.7324 ([4/8], the center of the trading range). Technical indicators generally allow growth: Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7446 ([5/8]), 0.7324 ([4/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.7568 ([6/8]), 0.7690 ([7/8]), 0.7812 ([8/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened when consolidating above the 0.7568 mark and the midline of Bollinger Bands with targets of 0.7690, 0.7812 and stop-loss at 0.7520.
Short positions may be opened if the instrument is reversed in the area of 0.7568 from the 0.7510 mark with targets at 0.7446, 0.7324 and stop-loss at 0.7560.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Today the oil price is trying to grow from the level of 70.31, where it was corrected to on Friday after the Energy Minister of UAE Suhail Al Mazrouei noted that OPEC represented by UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia can balance the restriction of Iranian “black gold” supply. The decrease of supply in the market after the implementation of US sanctions against Iran is now estimated within the range of 0.5–1.5 million barrel per day.
The market ignored Baker Hughes Rig Count release, which increased from 834 to 844 units last week. As the prices have significantly increased, the strengthening of American shale oil production is not surprising.
Iranian authorities are trying to keep its share of oil market: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has visited China. The experts suppose the parties to negotiate upon the supplies after US sanctions implementation.

Support and resistance

The price strengthens at the level of 70.31 (Murray [+1/8]). Stochastic, reversing in the oversold area, restricts the growth. The consolidation of the price below the level of 70.31 will let it fall to the levels of 69.53 (Murray [5/8], H4) and 68.75 (Murray [8/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). If the price cannot consolidate above the level of 71.10 (Murray [7/8], H4) the growth to the levels of 71.87 (Murray [+2/8]) and 72.65 (Murray [+1/8], H4) is possible.
Resistance levels: 71.10, 71.87, 72.65.
Support levels: 70.30, 69.53, 68.75.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 70.31 with the targets at 69.53, 68.75 and stop loss near the level of 70.60.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 71.10 with the targets at 71.87, 72.65 and stop loss 70.80.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the beginning of the month, the pair trades within the sideways channel 1.3610–1.3458 (Murray [6/8]–[1/8], Н4).
UK employment statistic was mixed. The unemployment level stays record low –4.2%. Average Earning Including Bonus has grown by 2.9% during the last 2 months, which has exceeded the inflation growth of the period (2.7%). On the other hand, the growth rate of Average Earnings Excluding Bonus decreased from 2.8% to 2.6%.
British economy is slowing after significant growth, which the Deputy Governor of the BoE Ben Broadbent confirmed in his interview for Daily Telegraph and due to the unclear situation about Brexit. Until the Summer EU Summit, UK must publish its plan of the relations with EU development during the transitional period. However, the British governing parties are not able to agree. On Tuesday, the Scottish Parliament rejected London Brexit low, as it restricts the rights of local parliamentarians.

Support and resistance

The price is tending to the lower border of the channel, but the fall is possible after consolidation below the level of 1.3427 (Murray [–2/8]), and the “bearish” targets will be at 1.3310 (the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3200. After the breakout of 1.3550 (Murray [–1/8]) the correction to the level of 1.3671 (Murray [0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. The indicators reflect the fall. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointed downwards. MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3671.
Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3310, 1.3200.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3310, 1.3200 and stop loss 1.3470.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3550 with the target at 1.3671 and stop loss around 1.3510.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: Murrey analysis

This week, the price of WTI Crude oil continued to grow and is now testing the 71.87 mark ([6/8]). Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 73.43 ([7/8]) and 75.00 ([8/8]). Technical indicators generally confirm the development of an uptrend: Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, and MACD histogram grows in the positive zone; Stochastic is directed downwards, but it makes a reversal attempt.
In the price fails to consolidate above 71.87, correction to the mid-range of Bollinger Bands (69.53) or to the mid-range of the Murray trade range (68.75 [4/8]) is possible. But so far this scenario seems less probable.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 70.31 ([5/8]), 69.53 ([1/8], H4), 68.75 ([4/8]).
Resistance levels: 71.87 ([6/8]), 73.43 ([7/8]), 75.00 ([8/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the 71.87 mark with targets at 73.43, 75.00 and the stop-loss at 71.20.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 71.00 with targets at 70.31, 69.53 and the stop-loss at 71.50.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Last week, the pair was declining, and by now the price has fallen below the level of 1.3427 (Murray [2/8]).
The current week will be full of important statistics that will allow investors to assess whether the British economy is able to begin recovery or will it continue the slowdown, which was recently talked about by Ben Broadbent, the deputy head of the Bank of England. On Wednesday, April data on inflation will be published. It is expected that the consumer price index will continue to decline and will amount to 2.3%. If the forecast is confirmed, the regulator can further delay the decision to raise the interest rate; however, taking into account the recent growth in wages, the purchasing power of British households will increase. Retail sales index in February promises to grow from 1.1% to 1.4%, and GDP - from 1.2% to 1.3%.
Positive economic statistics may be offset by the Brexit negotiations. So far, the issues of the Irish border and membership in the customs union remain open and do not have a solution even within the ruling cabinet.

Support and resistance

Currently, the instrument is below 1.3427 mark and may continue to decline to levels of 1.3300 (Murray [1/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3183 (Murray [0/8]). If the price consolidates above 1.3550 mark, growth may continue to 1.3680.
Technical indicators show decline: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointing down, MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.
Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3183.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3550, 1.3671.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3385 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3183 and stop-loss at 1.3430.
Long positions may be opened above 1.3550 mark with the target at 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3510.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA. The Composite is growing, having broken out its longer MA.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI turned down just below the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is falling, having broken down its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.35 (local lows), 16.05 (March lows), 15.95 (April lows).
Resistance levels: 16.75 (March highs), 16.95 (local highs), 17.05 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price keeps trading in a sideways channel. There is a chance of a downward correction.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.35 with targets at 16.05, 15.95 and stop-loss at 16.55. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 16.75 with targets at 16.95, 17.05 and stop-loss at 16.60. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Wednesday, weak inflation data had pressured the British currency. The consumer price index continued to decline for the third month in a row and in April amounted to 2.4%. The basic consumer price index fell more strongly than expected and amounted to 2.1%. The Office of National Statistics of Great Britain notes that the decrease in inflation could be more significant, but it was compensated by the increase in the cost of fuel, the price of which reached a maximum for 3.5 years. Rapid approximation of the inflation rate to the target (2.0%) removes the need to raise the interest rate from the Bank of England. Under the current conditions, many market participants are waiting for it not earlier than by autumn.
Today, the price reversed around 1.3305 (Murray [2/8]) and entered the correction due to positive April Retail Sales, which grew more than expected, and reached 1.6% MoM and 1.4% YoY. However, it is due to the sale of gasoline and Internet sales, as store sales remained the same.

Support and resistance

The key “bullish” level is 1.3427 (Murray [2/8], middle line of Bollinger bands). The breakout will let the price grow to 1.3488 (Murray [5/6]) and 1.3550 (Murray [6/8]). Otherwise, the price can return to 1.3305 (Murray [2/8]) and fall to 1.3244 (Murray [1/8]). Technical indicators reflect the increase. Stochastic is directed upwards, MACD decreases in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3488, 1.3550.
Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3305, 1.3244.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3366 with the targets at 1.3305, 1.3244, and stop loss 1.3400.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3488, 1.3550 and stop loss 1.3400.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the pair correctionally grew and is now trying to consolidate above the level of 1.1718. USD is under pressure of canceling the US-DPRK summit, moreover, next week new sanctions may be imposed on DPRK. However, EUR is unstable due to the Italian and Spanish government crisis. The Socialist Party of Spain is ready to vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose advisers are accused of corruption.
Investors continue to follow the development of US-China trade disputes. The recent agreements on the mutual suspension of duties and of the US trade deficit with the US 200 billion aroused serious criticism in the US Congress. The Donald Trump to declare that the trade agreement with the PRC could be changed since it is difficult to verify its results. Market participants saw in this the possibility of a breakdown of the transaction. In addition, the US currency is weakened due to the data. There are fears that the following duties on metals, the president's administration and the trade war (this time with Germany, Japan, and South Korea) will get a new round.

Support and resistance

The consolidation above 1.1718 (Murray [2/8]) will let the price grow to the levels of 1.1840 (Bollinger bands’ middle line), 1.1900. However, the indicators reflect the strength of sellers, so the decline to 1.1596 (Murray [–1/8]) and 1.1540 is possible. Bollinger bands are pointed down, MACD is growing in the negative zone, Stochastic is reversing downwards.
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900.
Support levels: 1.1657, 1.1596, 1.1540.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1596, 1.1540 and stop loss 1.1690.
Long positions can be opened at the level 1.1780 with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1900 and stop loss 1.1740.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the instrument is testing the level of 109.37 ([6/8]), but cannot consolidate below it. If this happens, the price can reach the levels of 108.60 ([-2/8] on H4, the lower line of Bollinger Bands) and 107.81 ([5/8]). For the "bulls", the 110.00 is seen as the key level (in the midline of Bollinger Bands). If the instrument consolidates above it, further growth is likely to the level of 110.93 ([7/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands).
Technical indicators show decline: MACD histogram is declining in the positive zone; Stochastic is pointing down but has approached the oversold zone, so a reverse and the formation of a signal to an upward correction are likely.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 109.37 ([6/8]), 108.60 ([-2/8], H4), 107.81 ([5/8]).
Resistance levels: 110.00 (the midline of Bollinger Bands), 110.93 ([7/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 109.37 with targets at 108.60 и 107.81 and the stop-loss at 109.70.
Long positions may be opened if the price reverses, from the level of 110.00, with the target at 110.93 and the stop-loss at 109.70.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

This week, Australian investors are focused on the poor national building sector data, as housing prices in many cities are declining, especially in Sydney (2.3%) and Melbourne (1.3%). On Wednesday, Building Permits data will be released, which can decrease by 3% in April, reflecting, that the prices are falling and construction companies would not open new deals.
The Australian Monetary Authority is still calm. Officials of the RBA, including its head Philip Lowe, have repeatedly noted that there is no need to correct the monetary policy. However, further tightening of the interest rate may put additional pressure on property prices and negatively affect the Australian economy in general. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held next week.

Support and resistance

Since the end of April, the price has been moving within the sideways range of 0.7568–0.7446 (Murray [4/8]–[2/8], the lower border of Bollinger bands). The price is now testing the level of 0.7507 (Murray [3/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) and then will move to the lower border of the sideways range, according to the indicators. Stochastic is directed downward, MACD histogram is set in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 0.7568, 0.7629.
Support levels: 0.7507, 0.7446, 0.7385.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level 0.7507 with the targets at 0.7446, 0.7385 and stop loss around 0.7530.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7568 with the target at 0.7629 and stop loss 0.7530.