LiteForex Analytics

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by AlexanderLiteForex, May 24, 2013.

  1. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: WTI Crude Oil: Murray analysis

    On the 4-hour chart, the price has grown to the area of the upper border of the Murray trading range 62.50 ([8/8]), but has not tested it and was corrected to 61.72 ([7/8]). The consolidation of the price below this the level and the middle line of Bollinger Bands can lead to the development of the downward correction to the levels of 60.94 ([6/8]) and 60.15 ([5/8]). Stochastic confirms it, reversing downwards near the overbought area. On the other hand, as MACD in the positive zone and Bollinger Bands and MA are growing, the upward trend, within the correction can develop, maintains. The price can grow to the levels of 63.28 ([+1/8]) and 64.00 ([+2/8]) after the consolidation above the level of 62.50.

    Support and resistance

    Resistance levels: 62.50 ([8/8]), 63.28 ([+1/8]), 64.00 ([+2/8]).
    Support levels: 61.72 ([7/8]), 60.94 (6/8]), 60.15 ([5/8]), 59.37 ([4/8]).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 61.72 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with the targets at 60.94, 60.15 and stop loss at around 61.85.
    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 62.50 with the targets at 63.28, 64.00 and stop loss at around 62.10.

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  2. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis

    On the 4-hour chart, the price is around highs since last October around 0.7870. The consolidation above it can let the price grow further. Otherwise, the correction to the level 0.7785 (correction 23.6%, upward fan line 38.2%) is possible. Indicators’ readings are controversial, Stochastic is pointed upwards, MACD entered the negative zone, which can reflect the formation of the downward trend.
    On the daily chart, the price is around the level of 0.7845 (correction 61.8%), which seems to be key. The consolidation of the price above it can let it grow to the area of 0.7925–0.7965 (correction 76.4%, upcoming downward fan). Otherwise, the fall to the levels of 0.7780 (correction 50.0%) and 0.7715 (correction 38.2%) is possible. Technical indicators allow the downward correction, Stochastic has left the overbought area and has formed a sell signal, MACD histogram has begun to fall in the positive zone.

    Main scenario

    Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7830 with the targets at 0.7780, 0.7715 and stop loss at 0.7860.

    Alternative scenario

    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 0.7870 with the targets at 0.7925, 0.7965 and stop loss around 0.7840.

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  3. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

    Current trend

    Today WTI oil prices reached the level of 63.77 due to the coincidence of short-termed positive factors. EIA and API Crude Oil Stocks change releases reflected the eighth in a row decrease of resources in the USA, which has exceeded the expectations and reached 4.948 million barrel. The production decreased by 2.9% (2900K barrel) to 9.492 million barrel per day. The oil rig number went down, too: from 747 to 742.

    The rapid growth of oil prices in the middle term can lead to the opposite effect of a revitalization of US shale oil producers, as it is becoming more and more profitable, which can result in a significant correction of the price. According to EIA forecasts, this year US production can reach a record level of 10.3 million barrel, and in 2019 – 11 million barrel. OPEC members recognize the danger of the high oil prices: recently Iran Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh noted the disadvantages of the Brent price growth above 60 USD per barrel; still, any countermeasures are unlikely due to OPEC+ Agreement implementation.

    Support and resistance

    Technically the price is tending to the Murray resistance at to the area of 64.00 ([+2/8]) and after the breakout can grow to the levels of 65.00, 65.60. Otherwise, the correction to the levels of 62.50 (Murray [8/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 61.72 (Murray [7/8]) is possible.
    Technical indicators allow the growth, Stochastic is pointed upwards but is reaching the overbought area, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards.
    Resistance levels: 64.00, 65.00, 65.60.
    Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened above the level of 64.00 with the targets at 65.00, 65.60 and stop loss at 63.50.
    Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 63.28 with the targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop loss at 63.70.

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  4. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: AUD/USD: waiting for the US inflation data

    Current trend

    At the beginning of the week, the pair declined under the pressure of optimistic statements by FOMC members John Williams and Loretta Meister, who spoke in favor of three or four interest rate increases in the US this year.
    However, on Wednesday the price reversed around the 0.7800 mark and began to rise under the influence of later reports that China plans to stop purchasing US Treasury bonds and strong data on retail sales in Australia. In November, the indicator showed significant growth, amounting to 1.2% instead of the expected 0.4%, which indicates active sales on "Black Friday". As a result, the price has risen to the level of 0.7900, has been corrected a little, and now is in the area of the level of 0.7870.
    Today, the market is waiting for the publication of December data on the consumer price index, one of the defining indicators in the decision to change the US interest rate. Now, a number of Fed members, including Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, are concerned about the low level of inflation and are supporting the rate hike before mid-2018.
    If realized, the forecasts (the reduction of the consumer price index from 2.2% to 2.1% and the preservation of the base level of consumer prices at around 1.7%) can strengthen the positions of the "pigeons" at the January meeting of the American regulator and exert significant pressure on the US currency.

    Support and resistance

    Technically, the price is at the lower border of the rising channel and in case of breakdown it may drop to the area of 0.7812 (Murrey [0/8]), otherwise, growth is likely to reach levels of 0.7900 (Murrey [6/8]) and 0.7935 (Murrey [8/8]). Technical indicators allow the possibility of decline, Stochastic is turned down, the MACD histogram is preparing to go into the negative zone and to form sale signal.

    Support levels: 0.7850, 0.7812, 0.7780.
    Resistance levels: 0.7900, 0.7935, 0.7965.

    Trading tips

    Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7880 with targets at 0.7900, 0.7935 and stop-loss at 0.7860. Consolidation below the lower border of the channel near the 0.7855 mark will make short positions relevant, with the goal of 0.7812 and the stop-loss at the level of 0.7875.

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  5. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: EUR/USD: Euro is growing

    Current trend

    Last week European currency strengthened against the dollar and by now, it has reached the level of 1.2245.
    Three factors have supported the growth of EUR. Firstly, China has reported the suspension of US government bonds purchase, which was not confirmed afterward. The second factor was the recent ECB meeting reports release, which contained hints of monetary tightening. The third one is the agreement between CDU and SPD to begin the negotiations upon the creation of wide party coalition, which will help to solve German government crisis.

    As a result, the market did almost not reacted to the positive December US Consumer Price release. The MoM index grew from 0.1% to 0.3%, the YoY one– from 1.7% to 1.8% due to the growth of housing prices. The data give the investors hope if increasing the interest rate during March FRS meeting, despite the fact that inflation has not reached the inflation level of 2.0% yet. Meanwhile, FRS plans to abandon this target level at all. The head of Boston FRB Rosengren has proposed to determine the inflation target within the range of 1.5–3% and choose the optimal level annually.

    Support and resistance

    The price grew above the central Murray ([4/8]) level around 1.2200. The targets are 1.2330 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2450 (Murray [6/8]). Correction to the levels of 1.2085 (Murray [3/8]) and 1.1963 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) will become possible after the price is set below 1.2200. The indicators reflect the development of growth, MACD is increasing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is pointed upwards.
    Resistance levels: 1.2330, 1.2450, 1.2570.
    Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2085, 1.1963.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.2330, 1.2450 and stop loss at 1.2240.
    Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2200 with the targets at 1.2085, 1.1963 and stop loss at 1.2250.

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  6. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: NZD/USD: pair updates its highs

    Current trend

    At the Monday trading, the New Zealand dollar showed significant growth against the US one, updating a new local maximum since September 22. The instrument was supported by the weakness of the US currency, while the markets in the US were closed on the occasion of the national holiday.
    Today, the pair tends to consolidate near new highs, partly due to corrective growth in favor of the US currency, as well as published macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Thus, the index of business confidence from NZIER in the 4th quarter of 2017 showed a sharp decline of -12% QoQ, after an increase of 5% QoQ for the previous period. Retail sales using electronic cards slipped from 1.3% MoM to 0.5% MoM in December, which, however, justified the market expectations.

    Support and resistance

    The Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range remains practically unchanged, which still limits the "bullish" potential in the short term. One should take into account the risks of a corrective decline in the short term.
    MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). There is an opportunity to maintain the existing long positions in the short term. It's worthwhile to postpone opening new positions now.
    The stochastic reversed horizontally near its maximum values, which indicates the possible development of corrective rollback in the short and/or ultra short term.
    Resistance levels: 0.7313, 0.7342, 0.7370.
    Support levels: 0.7275, 0.7242, 0.7195, 0.7135.

    Trading tips

    To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.7313 or 0.7342 marks, provided that technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend. Take-profit at 0.7370 or 0.7400. Stop-loss – 0.7270. Implementation time: 2-3 days.
    The rebound from the level of 0.7313 as from resistance, with the subsequent breakdown of 0.7275-0.7250 marks, can become a signal to the beginning of correctional sales with the target of 0.7135-0.7100. Stop-loss – 0.7320. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

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  7. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: USD/JPY: upward correction may occur

    Current trend

    This week, the pair continues to decline and today has reached its lowest level since last September at around 110.17.
    The yen is still supported by the decision of the Bank of Japan to reduce the volume of purchases of long-term government bonds (from 200 to 190 billion yen for 10-25-year-olds, and from 100 to 90 billion yen for 25-40-year-olds). Investors see this as a signal for the beginning of tightening of monetary policy by the regulator. Statements by the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda that incentive programs will be preserved until the inflation reaches the target of 2.0%, made this week, did not greatly weaken the yen. Most market participants believe that during the year the Japanese regulator will have to go on limiting incentives to prevent excessive loosening of the national currency due to the expected continuation of the Fed's interest rate increase and the possible tightening of the monetary policy by the ECB.
    Currently, the decline has stopped, as the market is waiting for the publication of data on industrial production in the US. Realization of forecasts - in December the index is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.4% - may push the pair to correction.

    Support and resistance

    Currently, the price is in the area of 111.50 (Fibo correction 23.6%, Murrey [1/8]), the breakdown of which will open the prospect of further decline to the levels of 109.37 (Murrey [0/8]) and 108.60 (Murrey [-1/8]). However, the location of Stochastic in the oversold zone indicates a possible correction to the level of 111.72 (Murrey [3/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [4/8], the middle Bollinger band line).
    Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.60.
    Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation, one can buy above the level of 110.93 with the target at 111.72 and the stop-loss at 110.50. One can sell below the level of 110.15 with the targets at 109.37, 108.60 and stop-loss at 110.60.

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  8. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: EUR/USD: waiting for new drivers

    Current trend

    This week, the pair is trading near the 1.2200 mark and cannot get away from it yet.
    On Wednesday, the dollar made an attempt to strengthen in view of strong data on industrial production in the US (in December its volume rose by 0.9% significantly exceeding forecasts) and warnings of the ECB Vice-President Vítor Constâncio on the need for a cautious approach to monetary policy in order not to harm economic growth. However, these drivers were not enough for consolidation of the instrument significantly below the level of 1.2200.
    Currently, the EUR won back losses, taking advantage of the uncertainty associated with the expiration of the financing of the US government on January 19. The Congress will have to extend funding, but Democrats insist on reciprocal easing of legislation on illegal migrants.
    During the day, the weakening of the US currency may continue in case of negative data on the US construction sector. Indicators of the dynamics of construction permits and the number of new homes bookings in December could fall from 1.298 million to 1.290 million and from 1.297 million to 1.275 million, respectively.

    Support and resistance

    The technical picture is uncertain. The price chart forms a "flag" shape within the upward trend, Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, which can speak of an increase to the levels of 1.2450 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.2573 (Murrey [7/8]). On the other hand, Stochastic is preparing to leave the overbought zone and to form a signal for sale. Correction is possible to the levels of 1.2085 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]).
    Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2085, 1.1962.
    Resistance levels: 1.2330, 1.2451, 1.2573.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation, one may sell after the price consolidates below the level of 1.2200 from the level of 1.2160 with targets at 1.2085, 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.2200. Buy positions may be opened from 1.2330 mark with targets at 1.2451, 1.2573 and stop-loss at 1.2270.

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  9. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: GBP/USD: the growth slowed

    Current trend

    This week the pair was growing, and by the end of the week it has renewed the 3-year highs around 1.3943, gained 1.6%.
    Today the growth slowed, as the instrument is under influence of two opposing factors. On the one hand, the dollar is under pressure of the crisis upon the federal government funding, which expires on December 19. The House of Representatives approved the prolongation law on Thursday, however, the democratic part of the Senate promises to block it. In this case, a number of government structures will suspend its work, and around 800K of the employers will have to set a vacation.
    On the other hand, the pound cannot grow further due to poor UK Retail Sales release. In December, the index decreased by 1.5% and Retail Sales ex-Fuel – by 1.6%. The analysts consider the fall is because the peak of buyers’ activity coincided with the November sales season. In addition, high inflation level affects the Retail Sales negatively, as it has fallen from its high of 3.1% to 3.0% only in December. The member of Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Michael Saunders has mentioned the long-term negative influence of the high inflation to the UK economy.

    Support and resistance

    The price reached the resistance zone of 1.3915–1.3965 (Murray [6/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%). After the rebound the growth to the levels of 1.4040 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [8/8]) is possible. However, the reversal of Stochastic in the overbought area and the possible exit of it reflects the risk of the downward correction to the levels of 1.3672 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.3550 (Murray [3/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands).
    Resistance levels: 1.3965, 1.4038, 1.4160.
    Support levels: 1.3794, 1.3672, 1.3550.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3793 with the targets at 1.3672, 1.3550 and stop loss at 1.3830.
    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.3965 with the targets at 1.4038, 1.4160 and stop loss at 1.3940.

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  10. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: AUD/USD: Murray analysis

    On the daily chart, the price left the main trading Murray range and is tending to the extreme of 0.8056 ([+2/8]). The breakout here can lead to the growth to the level of 0.8178 ([7/8] W1). However, the level of 0.8056 seems to be quite strong to cause a reversal. The price has tested it unsuccessfully last September, on the weekly chart in this area lays the strong reversal level [6/8] and the upper border of Bollinger Bands. After the reversal, the fall can develop to the levels of 0.7934 ([+1/8] D1) and 0.7812 ([8/8] D1). On the daily chart technical indicators’ readings are mixed. Stochastic has left the overbought area and formed a sell signal. MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards. Generally, the growth potential maintains but seems restricted.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 0.7934 ([+1/8]), 0.7812 ([8/8]), 0.7690 ([7/8]).
    Resistance levels: 0.8056 ([+2/8]), 0.8178 ([7/8] W1).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened after the reversal around of the level 0.8656 with the targets at 0.7934, 0.7812 and stop loss at around 0.8685.
    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 0.8056 at the level of 0.8090 with the target at 0.8178 and stop loss at 0.8050.

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  11. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: XAG/USD: correction is over, growth is expected

    Current trend

    The price of silver went into a narrowing consolidation after a significant growth at the end of last year.
    In mid-January, the instrument reached the local maximum level of 17.40, after which it consolidated below this mark in the side channel. Growth was promoted by the increased demand for metal and a significant drop in the US currency at the end of last year/beginning of this year. At the end of the last trading week, the United States published mixed data, which resulted in a reduction in US dollar sales and stabilization of the rate.
    Now, there are no important releases that could increase the volatility of the price of silver in the economic calendar. In the second half of the week, special attention should be paid to the US data, namely reports on the labor market, on economic growth rates in the 4th quarter of last year, and on orders for durable goods.

    Support and resistance

    The current consolidation from the strong resistance level can be regarded as a correction after significant growth. In the future, the correction will be replaced by a new upward wave, the main catalyst for further growth will be the negative fundamental background for the United States and the "bullish" trading sentiments of investors. In the medium term, the instrument is expected to rise to the next strong resistance level of 18.00 — the local high of last September.
    Technical indicators on the D1 chart keep the signal for an increase: MACD indicator shows a high volume of long positions, and Bollinger Bands are directed upwards.
    Support levels: 16.85, 16.75, 16.55, 16.10, 15.60, 15.30, 15.00, 14.10.
    Resistance levels: 17.10, 17.25, 17.40, 18.00, 18.20, 18.70.

    Trading tips

    In this situation, long positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 18.00 and stop-loss at 16.60.

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  12. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis

    On the daily chart the price weakened below the level of 109.37 ([0/8]) and can fall further to the levels of 108.60 ([–1/8]) and 107.80 ([–2/8]), which is confirmed by the indicators’ readings: MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone, Bollinger Bands has reversed downwards, confirming the downward trend. The beginning of the upward correction is possible after the price is set above the level of 109.37 ([0/8]) and returns into the borders of the main trading Murray range with the targets at the level of 110.15 ([1/8]) and 110.93 ([2/8]).
    However, on the weekly chart, the price has formed wide sideways channel, approximately coinciding with the central Murray channel (115.62 –109.37) and the price is now testing its lower border, which can cause a reversal. Moreover, the chart is close to the cycle line, which can reflect the possibility of the trade changing, too. In general, there is a potential of decrease, which seems to be restricted.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 108.60 ([–1/8]), 107.80 ([–2/8]), 106.25 ([2/8] W1).
    Resistance levels: 109.37 ([0/8]), 110.93 ([1/8]), 111.72 ([2/8]).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 108.60, 107.80 and stop loss at around 109.40.
    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 109.37 with the targets at 110.15, 110.93 and stop loss at around 109.00.

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  13. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex:GBP/USD: consolidation phase

    Current trend

    The pair GBP/USD switched to the stage of lateral consolidation after a substantial growth in mid-January. The upward momentum reached the key resistance level of 1.4345 (the upper limit of the upward channel). Then growth was replaced by a fall and the pair entered the sideways channel.
    At the beginning of the trading week, there are no key releases in United States or UK, which will ensure the further formation of a lateral trend. In the second half of the trading week in the US there will be data on the labor market, the index of production prices and the decision of the Fed on rates. The UK will respond with data on mortgage lending and the consumer confidence index.

    Support and resistance

    At the peak of the price, investors prefer to open short positions and close long positions, which ensures a fall in the pair. In the future, a deeper correction movement downward with targets of 1.4000, 1.3820 is expected. The oversold dollar will gradually begin to gain investor demand, even despite weak fundamental indicators. A downward correction may turn into a trend, but for a reversal of a long-term uptrend the pair needs to fall below the 1.3650 level, which is unlikely in the current situation. The main forecast is the downward correction to the levels of 1.4000, 1.3900, 1.3820, the reverse and the formation of a new upward wave.
    Support levels: 1.4070, 1.4000, 1.3900, 1.3820, 1.3690, 1.3650, 1.3520, 1.3500.
    Resistance levels: 1.4175, 1.4280, 1.4345, 1.4570.

    Trading tips

    Pending short positions can be opened at the level of 1.4280 with targets of 1.4000, 1.3820 and stop loss at 1.4370.

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  14. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex:WTI Сrude Oil: general review

    Current trend

    Oil quotes were being corrected this week and reached the level of 63.80 today, losing about 3.7%. WTI price was under pressure of the shale activity in the US and Canada, as well as the growth of US commercial oil reserves. According to Baker Hughes, the number of new drilling rigs in the US increased over the week up to 759 units, while in Canada it became 220 units. The expansion of the production capacities of shale companies due to the growth of oil prices could not be a surprise for the market – it was repeatedly predicted by OPEC. An additional correction factor was the growth of oil reserves in the US for the second week in a row according to the API (by 3.229 million barrels). Today, similar data will be released from the EIA, which also forecasts an increase in reserves by 0.126 million barrels.

    Support and resistance

    Technically, the price has grown to 64.06 (Murray [2/8]) and, with its breakout, has the opportunity to rise to 64.84 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of "Bollinger Bands"), but in the medium term, a downtrend may continue. If the level of 64.06 remains impregnable, the decline will continue to the level of 63.28 (Murray [1/8]) and 62.50 (Murray [0/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic came out of the oversold zone and formed a signal to buy. The MACD histogram ceased to grow in the negative zone. Bollinger bands are directed downwards.

    Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72.
    Resistance levels: 64.04, 64.84, 65.62.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at 63.70 with targets of 63.28, 62.50 and stop loss at 64.00. Above the level of 64.06 long positions will become relevant with the target of 64.84 and stop loss at 63.80.

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  15. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: FDAX: Fibonacci analysis

    On the 4-hour chart, the price has been trading within the range of 13270.0–13168.0 (correction 38.2% and 50.0%) for the third day and cannot leave yet. In case of the breakout of the lower border of the range, the decrease to 13068.0 (correction 61.8%) is possible. However, the chart has signs of figure “head and shoulders” formation, in case of development, the growth of the price to the level of 13400.0 (correction 23.6%) is not excluded.
    On the daily chart, the price is testing the level of 13183.0 (corrections coincidence 23.6%, D1 and 50.0%, H4). After the breakdown the decrease to the levels of 13060.0 (upward fan line 38.2%) and 12952.0 (correction 38.2%) is possible. Otherwise, the growth is expected, the breakout of the level 13300.0 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands) can return the price to January highs in the area of 13548.0. Technical indicators confirm the possibility of growth, Bollinger Bands reversed upwards, Stochastic entered the oversold zone and can reverse any moment.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened above the level of 13270.0 with the targets at 13400.0, 13548.0. Stop loss is around 13200.0.

    Alternative scenario

    Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 13168.0 with the targets at 13060.0, 12952.0 and stop loss at 13210.0.

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  16. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: SPX: Murray levels analysis

    On the daily chart, the instrument was corrected from annual maximums to the level of 2812.5 ([8/8]). However, it will be difficult to break through much lower, as the price is supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands. In addition, Stochastic confirms the possibility of renewal of growth; the indicator entered the overbought zone and is trying to reverse. A breakout of level 2812.5 may return the price to 2851.6 ([+1/8]), 2890.6 ([+2/8]) and above, to the level of 2968.0 ([7/8] W1). If the price is be able to gain a foothold below 2812.5 and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, the correction will be possible until the middle of the Murray trade range, at around 2656.3 ([4/8]).

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 2734.4 ([6/8]), 2656.3 ([4/8]), 2578.0 ([2/8]).
    Resistance levels: 2812.5 ([8/8]), 2851.6 ([+1/8]), 2890.6 ([+2/8]), 2968.0 ([7/8] W1).

    Trading tips

    Long positions should be opened above the level of 2812.5 with the targets of 2851.6, 2890.6, 2968.0 and the stop loss at around 2790.0. Short positions can be opened at 2773.0 with targets of 2734.4, 2695.3, 2656.3 and stop loss at 2790.0.

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    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 2, 2018
  17. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: NZD/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Yesterday US dollar strengthened against all the leading currencies. Friday’s strong US employment market publication supports USD. In addition, the evasion of risks wave, which appeared at the end of the last week, additionally affects the instrument negatively.
    Today the NZD/USD pair reached its month minimum, the pair reversed and consolidated above the psychological level 0.7300. Today there is lack of US macroeconomic releases. Dairy products fair will take place in New Zealand today, and employment market data are due at 23:45 (GMT+2), which can affect the investors’’ expectations upon tomorrow’s RBNZ interest rate decision

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is reaching Bollinger Bands MA from below. The key resistance level is 0.7325, the breakout of which will give a signal to open long positions. The indicator is pointed downwards; the price range is widened, reflecting the change of the upward trend. Key support level is 0.7250. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping sell signal. Stochastic is reaching the oversold area from below and do not give a clear entry signal.
    Resistance levels: 0.7325, 0.7356, 0.7400, 0.7440.
    Support levels: 0.7123, 0.7154, 0.7200, 0.7248, 0.7291.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7345 with the targets at 0.7400, 0.7420 and stop loss 0.7305. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
    Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7285 with the targets at 0.7250, 0.7230 and stop loss 0.7320. Implementation period: 1–2 days

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  18. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: prices are decreasing

    Current trend

    This week, oil prices continued to fall. The market is under correction due to a revitalization of US shale oil producers.
    According to Baker Hughes, last week number of rigs in the USA grew again by 6 units to 765, and in Canada, the number reached 234 units. Shale oil is expanding its presence in the world markets, objectively reducing OPEC+ Agreement effectiveness. According to Bloomberg, in December the supplies from the USA to UAE reached the level of 700 000 barrel. United Emirates produce millions of barrels of “black gold” itself, but shale oil is cheaper and cheaper in processing.
    Yesterday’s API Crude Oil Stocks change release unexpectedly reflected the decrease of raw oil by 1.050 million barrel and gas resources by 0.227 million barrel, however, it supported the price slightly. The investors are focused on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change publication; the growth by 3.189 million barrel is expected.

    Support and resistance

    The price has consolidated within the range of 66.40–67.18 (Murray [1/8] and [2/8]). The breakdown of its lower border will let the price fall to the levels of 65.62 (Murray [0/8]) and 64.84 (Murray [–1/8]), the breakout of the upper border will let it grow to the levels of 67.96 (Murray [3/8]) and 69.53 (Murray [4/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is reversing downwards, MACD histogram is decreasing in the negative zone.
    Resistance levels: 67.18, 67.96, 68.75.
    Support levels: 66.40, 65.62, 64.84.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 66.40 with the targets at 65.62, 64.84 and stop loss 66.70.
    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 67.18 with the targets at 67.96, 68.75 and stop loss 66.90.

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  19. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: NZD/USD: the downward tendency remains

    Current trend

    NZD consolidated in a downward trend against USD after a long-term growth in the second half of 2017.
    The pair is rapidly declining amid growing investment appeal to the oversold USD. It is worth noting that NZD also loses support from investors the more after each new level of support is taken over. Yesterday, the pair reached a new local minimum for the last month, the mark of 0.7180, after which it moved to the stage of an upward correction.
    Today, one should not expect high volatility in the pair due to the lack of important macroeconomic data.

    Support and resistance

    After a significant fall in the pair in February, one can safely say about a break in the uptrend and the emergence of a downward trend. At the moment, one can determine the borders of the descending channel and open short positions on the peaks of upward corrections. In the medium term, the pair is expected to decline to key support levels of 0.7130, 0.7110.
    Technical indicators changed direction on H4 chart: MACD indicates the continuation of the pair's decline, the volume of short positions remains high, and Bollinger Bands are directed downwards.
    Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7180, 0.7130, 0.7110, 0.7070, 0.7000, 0.6930, 0.6800.
    Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7275, 0.7290, 0.7310, 0.7335, 0.7370, 0.7400.

    Trading tips

    In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from levels of 60.7250, 0.7275 with targets at 0.7130, 0.7110 and the stop-loss at 0.7275.

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  20. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF Active Trader

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    LiteForex: AUD/USD: general review

    Current trend

    Last week, AUD weakened to its main competitors due to the indecisiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
    The regulator left the rate unchanged at the level of 1.5%, although investors have long been waiting for active action amid tightening of monetary policy by the banks of Canada, Great Britain and, of course, the Fed. Interestingly, the economic situation in Australia also contributes to higher rates: last year, inflation was near the target level of 2.0%, and the unemployment rate for the same period declined steadily, reaching a mark of 5.5%. Nevertheless, the RBA considers the current economic indicators are not enough.
    Additional pressure on the Australian currency was exerted by the RBA head Philip Lowe, who said that raising interest rates by several central banks does not mean that Australia will also automatically follow this path.

    Support and resistance

    The price is trying to start an upward correction and is currently at the key mark of 0.7812 (the middle line of Murrey range [4/8]). Consolidating above it, the price can continue to rise to the levels of 0.7934 (Murrey [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 0.8056 (Murrey [6/8]). In the breakdown to the level of 0.7812, the decline may continue to the levels of 0.7690 (Murrey [3/8]) and 0.7568 (Murrey [2/8]).
    Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is in the negative zone forming the buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold zone.
    Support levels: 0.7812, 0.7690, 0.7568.
    Resistance levels: 0.7934, 0.8056.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 0.7812 mark from 0.7860 mark with targets of 0.7934, 0.8056 and the stop-loss at 0.7810. Short positions may be opened from 0.7765 mark with targets of 0.7690, 0.7568 and the stop-loss at 0.7815.

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