Key To Markets - Discussion

Discussion in 'Advertisements' started by Key To Markets, Mar 27, 2017.

  1. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    Key to Markets - ECN Broker
    Key to Markets is an independent brokerage firm offering access to the financial markets for Institutional, Corporate and Private Clients of any country.

    Our company offers a wide range of products and a all-round customer service in order to provide our clients the opportunity to enjoy a complete and innovative trading experience.

    [​IMG]

    KEY TO MARKETS NZ Limited is a company registered in New Zealand under number 4472148, a Registered Financial Services Provider and a member of FSCL, an approved External Disputes Resolution (EDR) scheme.
    KEY TO MARKETS NZ Limited is wholly-owned and controlled by KEY TO MARKETS (UK) Limited a company registered in the United Kingdom and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

    Instruments:

    48 Currencies pairs
    CFDs on Indexes, Energy and Commodities.

    Spread:
     
  2. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    Our key features:
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  3. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    ECN Technology & Key To Markets

    Key to Markets brings the power of the ECN Technology to your MetaTrader 4

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    [​IMG]


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  4. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    Hello everyone!

    On our blog we regularly publish fundamental and technical analysis on our main forex pairs and commodities.

    EURUSD-Net short positioning in EUR rose

    EURUSD snaps the two weeks downtrend at lower Bollinger band earlier fails at breakout level. Following a weak NFP data (Apr07) the U.S dollar rejected at three-month descending daily trendline on Monday session. French election campaign officially started on Monday (April 10) may expect some risk during this week. As Marine Le Pen’s low probability of victory, we expect the risk will be on the higher side this short week.



    FX positioning

    Nomura (April 07)-Leveraged funds’ net short positioning in EUR rose after declining for three consecutive weeks (to 40% vs. 36% last week). Max net shorts in the last year stands at 75%, which was last seen in August 2016. Asset managers’ net long positioning in EUR fell to 26% vs. 28% last week.



    Review

    · February 2017, French manufacturing output continued to decrease for the third month in a row -1.6%

    · Germany foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 21.0 billion euros in February 2017

    · Germany production in industry was up by 2.2% in February 2017

    · Eurozone unemployment rate decreased in February to 9.5% from 9.6%.

    · Final services PMI revised downward from 56.5 to 56.0

    · Manufacturing PMI at 56.2 at near six-year high as growth accelerates in Germany, Italy and France



    Technical analysis:

    EURUSD flat on Monday session snaps the two-week downtrend manages to hold the lower daily Bollinger band.

    The price breakdown the three-month ascending trendline extend the decline of 50% retracement of the 1.0339-1.0905 rally.

    The daily BB finds at 1.0570 and 61.8 fib finds at 1.0550 below these 1.0490 Feb 22nd low exists. We expect the price likely to find support between 1.0570 and 1.0500 expect a retracement to 1.0650 and 1.07.

    Alternatively, further downfall expected below 1.0490 to 1.0450, 1.04 and 1.0360 levels. Potential resistance seems between 1.0680 and 1.0720 levels.

     
  5. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    EUR/USD - Range trading expected ahead of the French election

    Risk sentiment remains the key theme for the week ahead besides, French election looming.


    Fundamental Analysis

    Past Events review:
    • In March 2017, French consumer prices rose by 0.6% over a month and by 1.1% year on year
    • The Germany CPI rose by 0.2% in March 2017, on y/y basis 1.6% higher in March 2017.
    • German Economic Sentiment Continues to Improve. The indicator now stands at 19.5 points, thereby reaching its highest level since August 2015.


    Upcoming Key Events:

    Wed April 19:
    • Final EA CPI y/y forecast 1.50% vs 1.50%
    • EA Trade Balance forecast 18.6B vs 15.7B
    • Scheduled speech of ECB Executive Board Members’s Coeure and Praet
      During this forum a view on monetary policy may be presented.
      The market will be looking for further clarification on the ECB’s appetite for policy normalisation following recent dovish rhetoric that has weighed on the EUR.

    Fri, April 21:
    • PMI readings.

    ISTITUTIONAL FORECASTS:

    Barclays (April 16):
    A moderation in euro area flash PMIs is likely to be the focus in an otherwise quiet week and should weigh on the EUR. We forecast the composite PMI drop to 56.1 in April from 56.4 (consensus: 56.5), driven by some consolidation in French confidence. Final euro area March inflation (Wednesday) is widely expected to be confirmed at 1.5% y/y for the headline measure and 0.7% y/y for core.
    We would expect the USD to remain under pressure this week versus the JPY, EUR, CHF and GBP.


    CITI FX:
    French election looming, so investors may be reluctant to take positions. This is likely to see range trade in EUR in the days ahead, with some scope for downward drift.”

    Technical Analysis

    As we can see in the 4 hours chart, the Eur/Usd extended the decline around nearly the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0339-1.0905 rally.

    The near-term trading range remains between 1.07-1.0550 levels.

    The price failed to handle 50Dsma twice, but remains above 20Wsma which is next support available.

    Watching at the daily chart we can assume that the next potential supports are at 1.0599 and 1.0550 with further downfall expected to 1.0500/1.0490 and 1.0450 levels. Alternatively, potential resistance seems between 1.0680 and 1.0700.

    EURUSDDaily.png

     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2017
  6. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    EURUSD-Market participants focus shifts to ECB policy. EURUSD breakout again

    The results of the first round of French Presidential elections were very much in line with market expectations, EUR spikes. Market participant focuses on ECB meeting this week, the second round of the French election to be held in two weeks time.


    Fundamental analysis

    Review of the previous data:

    · The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 112.9 points in April from 112.4

    · Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 56.8 vs 56.1 forecast

    · Eurozone Services PMI 56.2 vs 56.0 forecast

    · Germany Manufacturing PMI 58.2 vs 58.1 forecast

    · Germany Services PMI 54.7 vs 55.5 forecast

    · French Manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 53.2 forecast

    · French Services PMI 57.7 vs 57.2 forecast

    · EA annual CPI y/y was 1.5% in March 2017, down from 2.0% in February

    · Euro area international trade in goods surplus €17.8 bn in February 2017, €1.7 bn surplus for EU.


    Upcoming data:

    Thursday, April 27

    · Germany prelim CPI m/m basis forecast -0.1% vs 0.2%
    Unicredit: The headline inflation rate in April likely accelerated by 0.3pp to 1.9% yoy.

    · ECB meeting:

    Thursday’s ECB policy meeting is unlikely to be eventful as ECB to keep policy accommodative.

    Unicredit- We do not expect new policy announcements, nor do we anticipate any material change of rhetoric.

    Unicredit: we think that Thursday’s meeting will be used by the ECB as a “bridge” to the June rendezvous, which promises to be important”.

    Deutsche Bank: We do not expect any significant changes at the ECB meeting.

    According to Abhishek Singhania at Deutsche Bank, “We do not expect any significant changes at the ECB meeting as the ECB is still waiting for credible evidence for improvement in underlying inflation and is unlikely to want to signal any change in policy stance as yet”.

    ABN AMRO: Sticking to its stance for now

    According to Nick Kounis and Aline Schuiling at ABN AMRO, We do not expect the ECB to make major changes to its communication at its meeting this week. The first step in the exit process will come with a change in communication in our view in June of this year. The forward guidance will likely become more neutral, dropping the explicit possibility of cutting rates or stepping up QE. We then expect the ECB to set out its plan for tapering in September of this year.

    Nomura: We are in line with the consensus in expecting all the ECB’s key policy parameters

    to be left unchanged at this week’s ECB meeting on 27 April. No change in the forward guidance may be a small disappointment for the market.

    ING: Assuming that Macron does secure the presidency, speculation will increase of a significant tapering announcement to be made at the June 8th ECB meeting.


    INSTITUTIONAL FX POSITIONING

    Nomura-EUR: Leveraged funds’ net short positioning in EUR rose for the third week (to 48% vs.

    45% last week). Max net shorts in the past year reached 75%, which was last seen in August 2016. Asset managers’ net long positioning in EUR remained stable at around 21%.



    Technical Analysis

    The first round of French election sends the EURUSD to a five-month high.

    EURUSD marches to the key breakout zone remains between 1.0950 its top of the rising channel and 1.1000 its 100Wema.

    The price is trading above 50Wsma for the first time since November 2016 pause the rally at 20Msma seems at 1.0950.

    The price gave an upside breakout through inverse H&S pattern on April 18th again breakout given yesterday (April 25)

    The daily RSI approaching overbought zone, indicating round number 1.10 likely to act resistance over near term.

    If this week closes above 1.1020/1.1030, rally might extend to 1.1100/1.1120 100Wema, 1.1200/1.1240 Oct 2016 high,1.1300 and 1.1400/1.1430 100.00 weekly fe over the medium term.

    Symmetrical triangle breakout gave on the weekly chart, aiming at 1.1300 levels.

    Support finds at 1.0900, 1.0820/1.0800 and 1.0700/1.0670

    The French election risk was minimized notably, euro remains a buyer on a dip


    UBS: forecast 1.15 and 1.20 into end 2017/early 2018

    Societe Generale:The bottom in EUR/USD is behind us and the trend has turned.

    Nomura: The possible dip after the ECB meeting and inflation data later this week may provide a good opportunity to buy EUR.

    EURUSDDaily.png
     
  7. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    The Key To Markets BLOG

    Our branded new BLOG is now online, you check it out here:

    In the blog you will find:
    • Daily Forex Analysis.
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  8. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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  9. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    Key To Markets Active Trader

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  11. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    Copper: Bargain hunting expected.
    • Copper price has been consolidating at 200DEMA for three sessions.
    • Price erases the ten-day descending trendline.
    • Trading at a four-month low, off- 13% from Feb2017 highs.
    • On the weekly chart, 100WEMA finds at 2.47
    Read the article on our Key To Markets Blog
    [​IMG]
    Read the article on our Key To Markets Blog​
     
  12. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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  13. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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  14. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    DXY likely to rebound beyond 61.8% of 101.35-98.50 fall.
    • The dollar index retraced last week, helped by 50WSMA.
    • DXY likely to rebound beyond 61.8%.
    • Has formed a five wave decline.
    It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
    What is your Technical View?
    Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
     
  15. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    BRENT: Parallel resistance seems between 52.40 and 52.60

    · Since touching an intraday low of 46.32$ (May 05), Brent oil price rebound more than 11%.
    · Overnight oil price extends the rally further 3%, support by comments from Saudi Arabia and Russia Brent oil price pauses the rally at 61.8% fib(April12-May 05fall).
    · Oil prices spiked after the energy ministers of Saudi Arabi and Russia jointly said that an OPEC-led crude production would be extended until March 2018.

    It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
    What is your Technical View?
    Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
     
  16. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    USDSGD: Can we expect a double bottom?
    • USDSGD printed an inverse V shape reversal .
    • Parallel support finds at 1.3900.

    It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

    What is your Technical View?
    Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
     
  17. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    Brent: Resistance seems between 52.40-52.60, what if settles above?
    • Brent price rejected twice at 100DEMA.
    • Trading range remains between 52.60 and 50.40.
    • What if Brent settles above 100DEMA?

    It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

    What is your Technical View?
    Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.​

    To contact the author of this analysis, please email- jkatta@keytomarkets.com, Skype id- jesanand
     
  18. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    Silver: Further head room expected.
    • April-May 2017 fall vs Oct-Nov 2015 fall.
    • Higher low expected on weekly basis.
    • Over near term, expected a bullish bias.
    During April to May fall (18.60-16.00$) the price down for 16 days out of 17 trading sessions. It reminds me the October 2015 fall, where the price fell for fifteen straight sessions.

    Read the article on our Key To Markets Blog
    [​IMG]
    Read the article on our Key To Markets Blog

    It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
    What is your Technical View?

    Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
     
  19. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    BRENT: Resistance seems between 54.30 and 54.50
    • Oil price hits a highest more than a month.
    • OPEC meeting on May 25th in focus.
    • Brent oil enters resistance zone.

    It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

    What is your Technical View?
    Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
     
  20. Key To Markets

    Key To Markets Active Trader

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    CHFJPY- Trading opportunities available
    • Potential resistance seems between 115 and 115.50.
    • Lower time frames appear limited upside.
    • Settles above 20MA (monthly) for the first time since Dec 2015.

    It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.


    What is your Technical View?
    Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.​
     

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