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HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 17th February 2021.

Stock stalled, Gold down, BTC up amid sell off in Treasuries!.



Market News Today​

The selloff in Treasuries deepened as the market returned from its long Presidents Day weekend. The stock rally started to run out of steam, while the selloff in bond markets continued. The bear steepener remained fully intact as the reflation trade and technicals gripped the market. 10-year Treasury yields reached levels last seen in February 2020 yesterday, before falling back -1.5 bp and settling around the 1.3% mark. Longer dated yields are at or near 1-year highs. But even when the full equity rally fizzled and the USA100 fell into the red, bond yields continued higher. A stronger than expected Empire State index also supported the bearish case in bonds.

JGB rates have lifted 2 bp to 0.094% and bonds also sold off in Australia and New Zealand, leaving rates more than 8 bp higher on the day. Meanwhile the JPN225 corrected -0.6%, despite an unexpected rebound in core machinery orders. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -0.04% and up 0.3% respectively, while US futures are posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia.

Equities have already come a long way and there may not be much appetite to push valuations out further at this point, but stimulus hopes and vaccine developments continue to fuel reflation trades and central bank efforts to try and slow the rise in yields by stressing that monetary policy will remain accommodative, risk fuelling a bubble in speculative assets that could come back to haunt markets further down the line.

In FX markets USDJPY dropped back to 105.96, amid a broadly higher yen, although the Dollar rose against most other currencies. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $60.19 per barrel. EURUSD dropped back to 1.2070, Cable to 1.3868. Bitcoin rose, again, through $50,000 as signs of big investor interest in the asset drive more and more buying. Gold prices extended losses for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, slipping to near 2-week lows as soaring US Treasury yields and a firmer Dollar dented the bullion’s appeal.

Today – Data releases today focus on US Retail sales and Canadian inflation for January, along with the FOMC minutes.

The FOMC minutes to the January 26, 27 policy meeting should underscore the Fed’s commitment to a lower for longer rate stance, with no intention of trimming QE. We know the meeting resulted in no change in policy and so the minutes will not break any new ground. Indeed, last week Chair Powell’s sombre outlook where he emphasized the need for ongoing support from monetary policy due to the pandemic was in keeping with the tweaks in the January policy statement. One such tweak was that the Fed’s acknowledgement that “the pace of the recovery in the economy and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic.” We’ve also heard Fedspeak that the entire FOMC is generally on board with this posture, including allowing inflation to run hot for some time.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.40%) extended losses below 20-DMA. Next Support remains at the 50-DMA at 71.60. MACD lines and RSI are neutral but still turning lower while intraday they are both negatively configured, with fast MAs sloping further lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 19th February 2021.

US Open – Dollar, Oil & Gold Pressured; Equities higher.



The Dollar has softened for a second consecutive day, despite US Treasury yields perking up, although remaining off trend highs seen earlier in the week. Global stock markets have continued to exhibit a sputtering price action in the face of historically stretched valuations and the recent spike in yields. In the commodity realm, oil prices have corrected while base metals have remained buoyant, with nickel and particularly Copper, for instance, posting fresh major trend highs.



The USDIndex posted a three-day low at 90.19, finding some support at the S2 level, which marks a little over a two-thirds retrace of the gains that were seen on Tuesday and Wednesday. EURUSD concurrently rose above 1.2100 for the first time since Wednesday, to stall at R2 1.2140. USDJPY dropped for a third straight day, posting a three-day low below S2 105.30. The Yen traded softer against most other currencies. Cable lifted above 1.4000 for the first time since April 2018, while the Pound traded softer against the Euro, correcting after rising against the common currency on each day over the last week, which produced an 11-month peak yesterday.



There was unusual divergence among the dollar bloc, which correlated with the divergence between rising base metal prices and a concurrent fall in oil prices, with the Australian Dollar outperforming the main currencies while the Canadian Dollar underperformed. This saw the AUDCAD cross lift by over 0.7% in pegging a 32-month high at 0.9915. AUDUSD, meanwhile, surged 1% in making a 35-month high at 0.7843, while AUDJPY rallied into 26-month high territory. USDCAD ebbed comparatively moderately, to a three-day low at 1.2632, while the Canadian Dollar weakened against the Euro and Yen, among other currencies.



Weaker oil prices affected the Loonie and other oil correlating currencies. Front-month WTI oil futures dove over 2.5% in posting a one-week low as USOIL touched $58.57. USOil is down over 5% from the 13-month high that was seen yesterday at $62.26. Bitcoin continued to hold firm on dips, aided by Elon Musk asserting that bitcoin “is simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash.” Gold, which spiked to 7-month lows during the Asian session at $1760.58, has since recovered over $1770.00 but is down for a seventh consecutive day, losing over 4%.



US equity futures have extended higher to post small gains with the USA30 up 0.1%, the USA500 0.4% firmer, and the USA100 0.5% higher. European bourses are in the green with the GER30 rallying 0.5% while the UK100 lags and is only 0.1% higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
HeadMarket Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 22nd February 2021.

Markets Update – February 22 – It’s all about the Yields.



Market News Today​

Equities heavy as Yields, Copper and VIX soar. USD recovers from lows; safe haven JPY & CHF suffer. US10yr yields touched 1.38% (now 1.345%), Equities closed down on Friday and for the week, FUTS now into 5th day lower. Reflation trade & progress in vaccination worldwide, especially in developed economies, helps commodity currencies & boosts sentiment for riskier assets. Commodities lifted (especially Copper) – except Gold ($1790) which appears to be losing its inflation hedge status to BTC, (new ATHs over $57K). VIX FUTS up 4.4% to 25.80.

This weekRBNZ rate decision, Progress on stimulus 1.9tn stimulus package, US GDP, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, PCE & Powell testimony. Earnings season continues (392 of S&P500 reported – 80% have beat estimates)

Today – German IFO, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bowman. UK PM Johnson to outline lockdown exit plans for England. Earnings from Marathon Oil & Occidental Petroleum.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.34%) Rallied from 200MA on Friday (0.8940) Over 20 Ma Friday over R1 and R2 today – moving to test 0.9000 Faster MA’s aligned and trending higher, RSI 72 OB but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and broke over 0 line on open today. Stochs. very OB and touching 100. H1 ATR 0.0009 Daily ATR 0.0080.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 24th February 2021.

Market Update – February 24 – Sterling & Commodity Currencies Soar.



Market News Today​

Equities recover from significant falls, Powell pushes for inflation, USD remains heavy, yields cool from highs, NZD spikes following RBNZ. Commodity currencies & Sterling at 3-year highs, Copper at near 10-year high, Oil slipped from 1-year highs. Gold holds over $1800. BTC up from under 45k to recover 50K. German GDP beats at 0.3%. Overnight – Japanese Inflation slips, ASO talks weak Q1 GDP and need for more Bonds. Nikkei closed lower -1.6%.

The Pound and the New Zealand Dollar surged to fresh trend highs, which along with a side theme of yen weakness, provided the main action during Asian trading ahead of the London interbank open. Cable spiked by some 180 pips from yesterday’s New York closing level in posting a fresh 36-month high at 1.4234. The pair subsequently settled lower, to the upper 1.4100s, which still left Sterling with a near 1% gain on the day. At the same time, EURGBP dropped sharply, to a one-year low at 0.8541, while GBPJPY stormed above the 150.00 level for the first time since May 2018.

Stop orders and option related demand was reported. It’s not clear if there was a specific catalyst, though the Telegraph newspaper reported British government sources saying that Covid restrictions could be lifted sooner than laid out in PM Johnson’s roadmap, which was outlined earlier in the week, if “real world data on the effect of vaccines is better than expected.” So far the data has been encouraging, and the UK’s ahead-of-the-pack vaccine rollout has been bullish factor for the Pound. The UK economy and the Pound underperformed peers during the height of the first lockdowns last year, and the vista of reopening has been having the opposite effect, especially with Brexit uncertainty having finally ended.

The Kiwi Dollar, meanwhile, also rallied, after initially dipping in the immediate wake of the RBNZ policy announcement. The antipodean central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25%, as had been widely anticipated, while the main takeaway from the statement and Governor Orr’s press conference is that policymakers now see the next move as being a tightening, although this was framed in context of uncertainty, ongoing risks to growth etc. Once market participants discerned this, NZDUSD rallied briskly to a new 34-month high at 0.7384.

As for the Yen, the currency posted across-the-board declines. USDJPY consequentially lifted to a two-day at 105.58, while AUDJPY and NZDJPY printed new 26-month highs, and CADJPY a one-year peak. EURJPY jumped to within 15 pips of recent 26-month highs, while EURUSD remained rooted in a 20-pip range in the mid 1.2100s. The other dollar bloc currencies, outside the case of the New Zealand Dollar, posted fresh highs, despite weaker global stock markets and softer commodity prices today. AUDUSD pegged a three-year high at 0.7945, while USDCAD dropped to a 34-month low at 1.2557. Equity markets remained under pressure, with Fed chair Powell not doing quite enough to damp down yields during his Senate testimony yesterday, while a rise in stock-trading stamp duty was in part behind a steep decline in Chinese stocks today.

Today – US new home sales, DoEs, BoE’s Haldane, Bailey, Vlieghe, Haskel, Broadbent, Fed’s Powell, Brainard, Clarida.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.73%) Rallied from break of 20MA yesterday at 148.00 to breach 150.00 earlier. R3 149.20, trades at 14960 now. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 80.00 & OB, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher with a big break of 0 line yesterday. Stochs. down from OB zone. H1 ATR 0.2630, Daily ATR 0.9350.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 25th February 2021.

Market Update – February 25 – Risk On, Commodity Currencies lead.



Market News TodayUSD at 3-year lows, Equities recover over 1%, (Dow over 32K) Yields cool again but remain relatively elevated (10yr – 1.41%). RISK ON. JPY & CHF heavy. Commodity currencies & Sterling hold bid, EUR breaks January resistance. Copper at 10-year high, Oil at 13-mth high, Gold under $1800. BTC at 50K. Sentiment lifted as J&J announce a single shot vaccine and independent study shows Pfizer vaccine 94% effective. Overnight – Nikkei up 1.67%, German Gfk confidence ticks higher, Gamestock rallied over 100% and then another 75+% after hours!

Reflation trades are back in full swing with bonds selling off and stocks rallying, with the combination of fiscal stimulus and ongoing monetary support fulling the moves. US 10-year rates have dropped back from session highs, but are still up 3.2 bp at 1.41%. Japan’s 10-year has gained 2.1 bp to 0.125% and longer dated benchmarks have now broken multi-annual highs. Australia and New Zealand bonds underperformed and Australia’s 10-year rate lifted nearly 12 bp, despite the fact that the RBA bought bonds for the second time this week. Fed Chair Powell tried to dampen inflation concerns and Vice Chair Clarida said he expects current bond purchases to be maintained at the current pace for the rest of the year. That will likely continue to underpin risky assets and in some quarters add to concerns that easy money is fuelling bubbles in equities and elsewhere.

Today – US Durable Goods, GDP, Weekly Claims & PCE Prices. ECB’s Lane, de Guindos, de Cos, Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Quarles, Williams, and Earnings from over 400 companies in US & Europe.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.36%) Continued yesterday’s momentum rallying from 83.20 and holding over break of 20MA testing over R2 (84.50) to 84.65, R3 85.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 77 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but flattening after big break of 0 line yesterday. Stochs down from OB zone but rising again. H1 ATR 0.1325, Daily ATR 0.6000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 26th February 2021.

Market Update – February 26 – End of Month shenanigans.




Market News TodayYields spike (10-yr +9.27% – over 1.52), Equities tank (Nasdaq -3.52%, Nikkei -4%), USD off 3-year lows. Commodity, EM currencies & Sterling cool from highs. Oil holds up (US attack on Iranian groups in Syria), Gold falls further under $1770, BTC at $45K. US data yesterday biased to the upside (big fall Claims, Durables beat & GDP in-line.) Overnight – weak Housing, also weak but better than expected CPI & Retail data from JPY. Senate rejects $15 min wage in Stimulus bill and looks to trim the $1.9t proposals.

The dollar and yen rallied as a risk-off theme coursed through global markets, with equity markets, commodities, including base metals and oil, all tumbling. The sharp spike in US and most other sovereign yields this week and the associated concerns about inflation have driven the correction in risk assets and currencies. We maintain that sovereign yields are lifting out of exceptionally low levels, that rising yields and interest rates are par for the course in major bull markets in equities by historic standards, and that the prospect of higher corporate earnings can still carry equities higher. But for now, the prevailing bias is a risk-off one, although Treasury yields have dropped back quite sharply from highs today. In the mix today has been news of a US airstrike in Syria against infrastructure used by Iranian-backed militia, which was reportedly in response to recent Iranian attacks on US interests in Iraq.

The USDIndex rallied nearly 0.5% in posting a four-day high at 90.49, while EURUSD concurrently dropped to a two-day low at 1.2129. Cable retreated back under 1.4000 on route to pegging an eight-day low at 1.3903. The Australian and New Zealand dollars underperformed, not surprisingly, having been outperformers during the risk-on times. AUDUSD fell over 0.5% in printing a one-week low at 0.7805. USDCAD lifted to a four-day peak at 1.2649, extending the sharp rebound out of yesterday’s three-year low at 1.2466. The Yen, meanwhile, has been the biggest gainer, outperforming even the dollar so far today as its traditional role as a haven currency become re-established. USDJPY dropped from a six-month high at 106.43 to a low at 105.86. Yen crosses dropped sharply out of trend highs in synchrony, with AUDJPY, for instance, diving some 2.5% from the three-year high the cross had seen yesterday.

Over in the cryptocurrency world, sharp declines have made a return. Bitcoin has hit a low so far just above $44,000, which is nearly 15% down on yesterday’s high and some 25% down on the record peak that was seen earlier in the week. Arguments by crypto advocates that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation have evidently been found wanting.

Today – US Personal Income, PCE & core PCE, Chicago PMI, Uni of Michigan, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Ramsden, Haldane.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.61%) Reversal of yesterday’s rally towards 85.00. Broke lower and under 20MA at R1 84.45 yesterday, now under PP and testing S1 and 200hr MA at 83.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 34 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, falling after break of 0 line earlier. Stochs up from OS zone and rising again. H1 ATR 0.1325, Daily ATR 0.6000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 2nd March 2021.

Forex Update – March came in like a bull for Wall Street.



The major indexes surged sharply higher on the back of more good news on vaccines and the expectation of massive stimulus sooner than later. Another batch of stronger than expected data helped too. But opening the door for the gains was the more subdued tenor of the Treasury market. In the Asia session, the risk aversion returned and stock market sentiment faded. Major indexes quickly pared early gains and headed south, while Treasuries were supported and the US rate dropped back -0.2%.

The risk-on flows lifted longer dated Treasury yields, but the cheapening was much more orderly than last week’s furious 20 bps intraday jumps in the 10- and 30-year maturities. A heavy corporate calendar is also contributing to the losses in Treasuries with the focus on a $7 bln 6-part deal from Goldman Sachs.

Headlines:

  • The February ISM and the January construction spending strongly beat expectations and contributed to upward revisions in GDP projections.
  • The RBA left policy settings unchanged and while that was expected, market reaction suggests that there was some hope of supportive action, especially after the central bank doubled its bond purchases on Monday.
  • China’s banking regulator highlighted worries about bubbles in overseas financial markets, but also domestic property markets, with suggestions that leverage will be reduced, which only added to concerns about further tightening in China.
  • Dovish comments from ECB’s Villeroy, who called for an active use of PEPP purchases and flagging the possibility of a deposit rate cut seem to have helped to boost confidence that the central bank will manage to avoid a cliff edge scenario on stimulus, without stoking inflation.
  • The Pfizer PFE.N and AstraZeneca vaccines are more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisations from COVID-19 in those over 80 after one dose of either shot, Public Health England said on Monday, citing a pre-print study.
Forex Market

EUR –
3rd day lower at 1.2075. Next Support at 1.2000.
GBP– crossed the 20-DMA and currently is traded at 1.3878.
JPY –
Yen found buyers, leaving USDJPY at 106.80.
AUD – holds steady between 20-and 50-DMA
CAD –CAD has been soft, weighed on also by the continuing weak oil prices during the session.
GOLD –slumped to its lowest in 9 months, as a stronger Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields eroded investor appetite for the non-yielding metal.
USOil – below $60 as expectations that OPEC would agree to raise oil supply in a meeting this week added to pressure and worries over slowing demand in China dampened sentiment.

Today: Calendar focuses on Eurozone inflation data for February, as well as German jobless numbers and retail sales and Canadian GDP for Q4. Also on tap speeches from ECB’s Panetta and Fed’s Brainard.

One of the bigger movers – XAGUSD (-2.19% decline)





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 5th March 2021.

Market Update – March 5 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.



What Fed Chair Powell did not say that shook up the markets.

Wall Street turned sharply lower following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, even though it was not what he said but what he did not mention that undermined equity sentiment. Specifically, he did not push back against the recent surge in Treasury rates. Indeed, he took attention of the spike and would be concerned by a “disorderly” move, providing tacit approval for the run-up in longer dated yields. Consequently, the stock market was dragged lower once again thanks to rising rates and expectations for more of the same as the economy and inflation pick-up further.

Headlines:

  • The Chair’s comments that he took attention of the spike and would be concerned by a “disorderly” move were not in the market’s narrative.
  • Fed Chair Powell’s perceived benign neglect of the surge in bond yields weighed on Treasuries and extended the recent selloff back toward the highs from February 25.
  • The US 10-year rate corrected slightly overnight but remains at 1.56%. The 10-year rate is currently down -5.3 bp at 0.079%, while yields jumped 6.0 bp and 7.5 bp in Australia and New Zealand respectively.
  • The tech-heavy USA100 over -3% lower intraday, with spill over to the broader indexes. However, the losses were pared in late trading with closing declines of -2.11% on the USA100, -1.34% on the USA500, and-1.11% on the USA30. JPN225 and ASX were still down -0.2% and -0.7% respectively at the close.
  • BoJ’s Kuroda sees no need to widen yield band. He said there is no need to widen the implicit band set for its long term yield target, while stressing the need to keep borrowing costs low to support the economy.
  • Oil prices jumped higher after the OPEC+ meeting decided to maintain current output levels. The USOIL is currently trading at USD 64.60 per barrel.
  • In Europe, key central bankers have also played down the rise in rates and signalled that the central bank won’t add additional measures next week that would reverse the rise in rates. Verbal intervention and a flexible use of PEPP purchases will likely be used to smooth an uptrend that most central bankers seem to feel is essentially justified, given the improved outlook for growth later in the year.
  • German manufacturing orders rose 1.4% m/m in January, more than anticipated
Forex Market
JPY –
USD rallies again – USDJPY over 108.00
EUR –dropped against a largely stronger Dollar- Currently at 1.1947
GBP – at 1.3859
AUD – dipped below 50-DMA again, at 0.7686
CAD –steadied to 1.2660 after 1.2574 bottom
GOLD – breaks the $1,700 – trades on 1695 now
USOil – Oil rocketed following OPEC+ agreeing to no production increase and to keeping current levels for at least April. USOil at 64.60 up from 59.20 lows on Wednesday
Bitcoin – returns to 47K

Today: Attention will turn to the US February employment report, hourly earnings, unemployment rate, January trade report and consumer credit is due late in the session, seen rising $10.0 bln from $9.7 bln previously. Canadian Ivey Purchasing Index in the tap as well.

Biggest mover – NZDUSD (+0.45% as of 07:30 GMT)



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 8th March 2021.

Market Update – March 8 – Yields Sharply into Focus.



Market News Today – The $1.9t stimulus package passes Senate with few changes, final ratification could be this week. Strong NFP on Friday boosted Stocks (+1.95%), Yields (1.554%) and USD (91.90) into close. Yield differentials now coming sharply into focus. Houthi missile attack on the key Ras Tanura oil refinery spiked USOil prices 2.2% to within 4 cents of $68.00. Gold ($1700) remains weighed by rising yields and BTC pivots around 50k. China is aiming for 6%+ growth in 2021, (2.3% 2020), with manufacturing still 25% of GDP. Trade balance +119% vs Feb 2020. JPY data better than expected (Nikkei down 0.42%), but German Industrial Production missed significantly.

European stock markets are broadly higher, with the DAX and FTSE 100 posting gains of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. US futures and in particular the NASDAQ are underperforming as improved confidence in the US recovery is hastening the rotation out of tech stocks. Bonds meanwhile are under pressure again, with the German 10-year rate up 2.0 bp at -0.285%, the Treasury yield 2.8 bp at 1.594%.

This weekECB & BOC along with Inflation from US & China and GDP data from UK & Japan.

Today – ECB asset purchase data, BoE’s Bailey.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.39%) Moved higher on open over 20 MA and 0.9300, now breached R1 at 0.9320. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 66 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but appear to be turning higher, well above 0 line. Stochs. into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0067.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 9th March 2021.

Market Update – March 9 – Yields & USD lead others follow.



Market News TodayUSD holds its bid, 10-yr Yields rally. Yellen calls the $1.9t stimulus package “very strong” for the US economy. Nasdaq closed down -2.4% (10% below Feb high, a technical correction) but DOW gained 0.97%. PBOC lifted sentiment saying money supply would be in line with GDP growth and they did not see need for stimulus for next 5 years. Nikkei +1%. Yields and USD slip. Overnight – mixed data from JPY, surprise jump for a UK retail sales tracker and the German Trade balance.

The Dollar posted fresh highs before receding, with the USDIndex hitting a fresh 15-week peak at 92.50 and then declining to levels around 92.05. The greenback’s softening was concomitant with a dip in US Treasury yields, which was seen as the Asian session progressed. The 10-year US note yield ebbed below 1.560%, after peaking yesterday at levels above 1.610%.

In other markets, base metals dropped, diverging from the rise in stock markets. Oil prices also turned lower. USOil ebbed to a four-day low at $64.34, extending a correction from yesterday’s 29-month high at $67.98. The already mentioned up-then-down action of the Dollar provided the only directional theme among the main currencies. EURUSD lifted from a new one-month low at 1.1836 to a rebound peak so far at 1.1888 while USDJPY fell from a nine-month peak at 109.24 to a low at 108.75. Cable rose from near one-month lows to a four-day high at 1.3885, and AUDUSD lifted out of a one-month low at 0.7621. USDCAD saw an ebb from highs, with the pair remaining well within recent range bounds. In the bigger view, we expect the reflation trade to hold up as the year progresses given the evident success of Covid vaccinations in countries that are more advanced in the vaccine rollout, which should allow for the continued reopening of major economies, and which in turn should maximise the impact of fiscal stimulus and an anticipated lockdown-savings-fuelled consumer spending spree. Given the outsized US fiscal stimulus and associated impact on yield differentials, this backdrop may not be the dollar bearish environment it was once thought it would be.

Today – BoE’s Haldane, RBA’s Lowe, Fed’s Kaplan & US supply – $120b of 3-, 10- and 30-yr US Treasuries being auctioned this week – last week’s “woeful” 7-yr auction saw yields double from the last auction.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (+0.42%) Big spike at 07:00. Moved higher following support at 1.3800 yesterday, now breached R1 at 1.3857, R2 at 1.3893. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 60 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and attempting to break 0 line. Stochs into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily ATR 0.0115.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 11th March 2021.

Market Update – March 11 – USD & Yields cool.



Market News TodayUSD slips – Core inflation missed (0.1%) and 10-yr auction was filled at 1.52%, better than expected. DOW closed at new ATH (+1.46%; 32,297) – Nasdaq flat – Stimulus bill passed – $1400 check to those on less than $75K and extra $300/week for unemployed. BOC – no change until “inflation objective is sustainably achieved”. Asia (China & SK rallied over 1.5%), Nikkei +0.6%. Huge Oil inventory build (13.8m vs 3.0m) shrugged off – tests $65 again.

The USDIndex has posted a six-day low at 91.68, extending the retreat from the 15-week high that was seen on Tuesday at 92.50. EURUSD concurrently lifted to a five-day high at 1.1947. Cable edged out a one-week high at 1.3954. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars saw the biggest magnitude of gains against the Greenback. AUDUSD hit a one-week peak at 0.7779. USDCAD pegged a two-day low at 1.2590.

A second principal theme in the currency market today has been yen underperformance. USDJPY, despite the broader softness in the Dollar, rose to an intraday peak at 108.81, extending a rebound from yesterday’s low at 108.33. EURJPY and AUDJPY posted two-week highs, while GBPJPY hit a fresh 35-month high and CADJPY came within 10 pips of the 28-month high that was seen earlier in the week. The Yen is registering as the weakest of the main currencies on the year so far. BoJ Governor Kuroda said last week that the yield curve needs to remain “stably low,” though said policy will be assessed at the upcoming March policy review. The rootedness of JGB yields, with the 10-year yield being pinned near to 0% under the yield curve control policy, has seen differentials versus other sovereign yields tip markedly out of the currency’s favour this year.

TodayECB policy announcement, US JOLTS & Weekly claims, OPEC MOMR & US 30-year bonds.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.71%) Big move from 83.50 lows yesterday, over 84.00 today and R3 at 84.45. Faster MAs aligned and higher, RSI 82.6 OB but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but looking stretched. Stochs 92 and OB from breaking 84.00 earlier. H1 ATR 0.1320, Daily ATR 0.9125.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 15th March 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.



Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as three of the major Central Banks – the Fed, BoJ and BoE – will announce their rate decision and hold a policy press conference.​

Monday – 15 March 2021


  • Eurogroup Meeting
  • Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The overall Chinese Retail sales should spike in January at 32% y/y from 4.6% y/y last month. China was the only major economy that grew last year despite challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. It reported a growth of 2.3% in 2020, but the performance across sectors was uneven with exports staying resilient while consumption has continued to lag.
Tuesday – 16 March 2021

  • RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – No surprises from the RBA is expected. The bank, after leaving interest rates unchanged, as had been anticipated, unexpectedly extended its QE program following its February board meeting. The statement said the outlook for the global economy has improved over recent months thanks to vaccine developments. It warned, however, that the expected recovery is likely to “remain bumpy and uneven” and “remains dependent on the health situation and on significant fiscal and monetary support”. The central scenario is for the Australian economy to expand 3 1/2 percent this year as well as expected to “return to its end-2019 level by the middle of this year”. Spare capacity is likely to stay for some time. Inflation and wages growth are expected to pick up from weak levels, but to remain “below 2% over the next couple of years”.
  • Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German March ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 65.1 compared to 69.6.
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – A February pull-back is seen in the retail sales headline and ex-auto component after outsized January gains, while business inventories climbed in January after a boost in the December level. A -2.0% February retail sales headline drop is expected with a -1.8% ex-autos decrease, following respective January jumps of 5.3% and 5.9%.
Wednesday – 17 March 2021

  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 01:30) – HICP inflation held steady at 0.9% y/y in January, as expected. The number reflects diverging developments across the four big Eurozone countries, which highlights the challenge the central bank will be facing as economies emerge from the pandemic and demand bounces back. Core inflation dropped back to 1.1%. Hence no change is expected for February’s data.
  • BoC Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI accelerated to a 1.0% growth rate (y/y, nsa) in January from the 0.7% rate of expansion in December. For February the overall inflation is expected to slow down slightly to 0.9% y/y. The CPI measure remains quite tame, running at the bottom of the BoC’s 1-3% target band. The BoC has maintained their commitment to maintain accommodative policy for an extended period of time.
  • Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00 – 18:30) – Fed Chair Powell will give a big thank you to the ECB after the Bank announced it will step up its asset purchases “significantly” next quarter to help steady rate markets. Like the Fed, the central banks are working to prevent a tightening of financial conditions, especially after the February 25 spike in rates that caused global shockwaves. But the ECB action and frontloading PEPP purchase was much more than the jawboning that the markets were anticipating. The FOMC won’t have that luxury, however, as it meets next week. We will look for a more upbeat assessment on growth conditions which would normally pressure Treasury yields higher. However, the Fed will again emphasize the downside risks and stress that there is still a long row to hoe before accommodation is removed. And of course it will add that it will remain accommodative until its goals are met. And now with the ECB doing more of the heavy lifting to contain the upside in yields near term via bond buying, Treasury rates may be held in check (relatively) too. On inflation, Lagarde also warned of a spike in prices said she will “see through” any increase because the medium term outlook is subdued. Powell has and will deliver the same message that policymakers are expecting a jump in y/y inflation rates, due largely to base effects, as well as the natural impacts of a likely surge in spending as the economy reopens, with some likely bottlenecks from supply chain disruptions.
Thursday – 18 March 2021

  • Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE delivered a relatively upbeat assessment of the outlook, even though it still flagged downside risks. Central bankers may still want to add negative rates to the toolkit, but it is pretty clear that they don’t expect to go there in the current situation. The BoE is expected to remain committed to not tightening policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.
Friday – 19 March 2021

  • Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The Bank of Japan meets on March 19. No change is expected to the main policy settings. In January, BoJ Governor Kuroda said uncertainty remains high for now and the risks for the economy and inflation are to the downside. Against that background he stressed that the BoJ won’t hesitate to add easing if needed, but also said the BoJ will need to consider the cumulative effects of the policy measures, including side effects. Notably, the reflation trade lifted the yields on the 10-year JGB (Japanese government bond) to a two year high of 0.115%. But the rate move is unlikely to prompt any action by the BoJ as it was driven by the market, tracking the general reflation trade that has lifted yields globally so far in 2021.
  • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – A January decline is seen in the retail sales and ex-auto component. A -2.5% m/m retail sales drop is expected with a -2.0% m/m ex-autos decrease, following December’s -3.4% m/m and 4.1% m/m.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 17th March 2021.

Yields nudged higher – Cautious ahead of FOMC.



Action remains mixed and subdued ahead of today’ s FOMC results.

The Treasury yield has lifted 1.2 bp to 1.63% as markets position for the FOMC announcement, which will take centre stage today. Markets are preparing for a less dovish tone against the background of a rapidly proceeding vaccination program and the prospect of a swift re-opening of the economy. In Europe the BoE is set to announce its policy decision tomorrow and while Governor Bailey is expected to offer some reassurance on policy, he seemed pretty sanguine on the trend higher in yields in comments from Monday. In the Eurozone meanwhile investors saw little evidence that the ECB has actually stepped up asset purchases in Monday’s data and seem to be testing the central bank’s resolve to keep spreads in.

Headlines:

  • Slow progress of the vaccination program is adding pressure to the sentiment, as the temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine clearly isn’t helping. Officials may feel they have the need to act on even the slightest suspicion of problems, but the move could well backfire and play into the hands of the anti-vaccine movement, rather than offering reassurance that officials are keeping to very strict health guidelines.
  • Australia (Queensland state) reports 4 severe reactions to AstraZeneca vaccination.
  • Stock markets traded within a narrow range ahead of the FOMC. – GER30 and UK100 futures are currently down -0.06% and -0.04%, with US futures also marginally lower.
  • A sharp narrowing in Japan’s trade surplus thanks to a slump in exports underpinned JGBs and saw the JPN225 close with a -0.2% loss.
  • Reports of supply shortages from companies such as Samsung and Honda added to the cautious tone in stock markets.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has released a report identifying 24 China and Hong Kong officials whose actions have reduced Hong Kong’s autonomy.
  • Japan will raise tariffs on US beef imports for 30 days.
  • Iran enriching uranium with new advanced machine type at underground plant – IAEA.
Forex Market

JPY –
lifted to 109.20, unable to break 4-day resistance.
EUR – 4th day dropped currently at 1.1892.
GBP – steadied to 1.3877-1.3930 area.
AUD – steadied to low 0.77 area.
CAD & USOil –fell to a fresh three year low at 1.2437 even as WTI crude oil gyrated between $64 and $65 after pulling back from $66.38 yesterday.
VIX – Appreciated by more than 20% in the open, just a breath below 20-day SMA.

Today: Today’s data calendar is pretty quiet, with only the final reading for Eurozone February inflation. The Fed concludes its meeting today and announces its decision and releases its quarterly forecasts at 18:00 GMT.

FOMC preview:
The meeting will be followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 14:30 ET. The focus will be on the new views on the recovery and of course policy as reflected in the SEP and dot plot. The statement should show an improved outlook on the economy, but a still cautious stance on the labor market. Look for reiteration that inflation continues to run below target. In his press conference Chair Powell will acknowledge the run up in prices but will again say it’s expected to be a transitory blip. We suspect he will try to discourage worries that the run up in yields will initiate the start to tapering sooner than later. Remember the Fed has indicated it will begin trimming QE before it begins boosting rates. So it could be a difficult dance if the dots show more rate hikes in 2022 than the 1 from December as the markets would quickly price in Fed action for later this year.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 23rd March 2021.

US Update – March 23 – New Homes, Richmond Fed, Powell & Yellen Testify.



EURUSD, H1​

US new home sales plunged -18.2% in February to 775,000, weaker than expected. Sales were up 3.2% to 948,000 in January and 7.2% to 919,000 (was 885,000) in December. The largely weather-related hit breaks a string of 8 straight months of sales at a pace that was the strongest since the 1.016 million in September 2006. Sales declined in all four regions, largely on the polar vortex that put much of the country in a deep freeze. The Midwest led the slide with a -37.5% slump, along with the -14.7% decline in the South, the -11.6% drop in the Northeast, and the -16.4% tumble in the West. So it wasn’t just the weather. The month’s supply of homes jumped to 4.8 from 3.8 (was 4.0). The median sales price slipped -1.1% to $349,400 versus the -1.0% decline to $353,200 ($346,400) in January. The appreciation in home prices slowed slightly to 5.3% y/y versus the prior 7.4% y/y (was 5.3% y/y) clip. The record high was hit in December at $356,600. The data follows yesterday’s big miss for existing home sales which declined to 6.22 million in February from 6.66 million in January.

More positive news is that the March reading of the Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose a significant 3 points to 17. The index was steady at 14 in February after falling -5 ticks to that level in January. The index is down from the 29 reading from October which is the all-time high. The employment component was unchanged at 22 from 22, with the wage gauge at 26 from 32. New orders were also unchanged at 10 from 10. The prices paid index was 6.15% from 4.47%. The prices received component was 3.52% from 2.83%. The 6-month outlook index was 28 from 22, well off the 57 from July that ties the record high from February 2002. The future jobs index was 34 from 36 with wages at 57 from 49. The future new orders index was 24 from 15. The price outlook showed prices paid at 4.66% from 3.78%, and prices received at 3.57% from 2.98%.



The Dollar moved slightly higher following the data, which saw new home sales miss the mark, while the Richmond Fed index rose more than expected. EURUSD dipped to two-week lows of 1.1861 from 1.1875, while USDJPY edged up from 108.63 to 108.71. Wall Street remains narrowly mixed, while yields are down on the session.



Next up, and potentially more significant, is Chair Powell’s first of 2 days of testimony, along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, on the quarterly CARES Act report before the House Financial Services & Banking Committees.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 24th March 2021.

Market Update – March 24 – Better PMI data for UK & Eurozone.



EURGBP, H1​

Preliminary March UK PMI survey data came in much stronger than expected, with the headline composite reading rising to a seven-month high of 56.6, up from 49.6 in February. The median forecast had been for a much more modest improvement, to 50.6. The manufacturing PMI headline came in at a 40-month high at 57.9, improving from 55.1 in the month prior. The services PMI rose to a seven-month high at 56.8, advancing sharply from 49.5, with the sector expanding again after four consecutive months of contraction. This is the first month since last September that both the manufacturing and services sectors have seen a rise in new orders.

A rebound in sales into easing lockdown measures, which has come on the back of a so-far successful and rapid Covid vaccination program, has driven the improvement. Consumer confidence increased and the survey highlighted a surge in demand for residential property services. It is also notable that service sector activity overtook manufacturing sector activity for the first time in the pandemic era, and the survey also evidenced the release of pent-up demand, with businesses rebuilding capacity in response to rising consumer demand.

The data showed the first increase in staffing numbers in the private economy since February 2020, with the rate of job creation at the highest in almost two years. Optimism about the 12 months ahead rose for a third consecutive month, and stood at the highest level seen since the index began in July 2012. Input costs spiked by the most in over four years, which was accompanied by the highest rate of output charge inflation in over three years.

Earlier Eurozone Composite PMI was also back in expansion territory, with the overall reading lifting to an 8-month high of 52.5 from 48.8 in the previous month. The breakdown still reflects a two-speed recovery, with the manufacturing sector leading the way. The Manufacturing Output PMI as well as the general Manufacturing PMI were at record highs in March with readings of 63.0 and 57.9 respectively. The Services PMI remained in contraction territory at 48.8, but this was up from 45.7 in the previous month and indeed a 7-month high. Germany reported the first expansion of activity for six months, which ties in with the cautious re-opening of activity in March, although given that the government already signalled an extended “quiet period” over Easter as case numbers rise, the risk of a set-back is high. The manufacturing sector meanwhile is bursting at the seams, with the backlog of orders now rising again, particularly in Germany. The developments are also good news for the labour market, with Markit reporting that manufacturers saw headcounts rise at a rate not seen since August 2018 and that the services sector reported the largest rise in employment since the start of the pandemic.



Overall a very good report, that suggests the first quarter of the year was less weak than feared and that even in the services sector things are starting to look a bit better. In the very short term there may be a setback, but with the EU procurement scheme ensuring that vaccines are pretty evenly distributed across the EU/EEA area, even if national rollouts differ, the area remains set to bounce back in the second half of the year.



EURGBP spiked to 0.8645 earlier following the surprisingly weak UK CPI data, subsequently retraced to under today’s pivot point at 0.8617, before settling over 0.8620. The 20-day moving average at 0.8600 is the key support level in the higher timeframes, with immediate resistance at 0.8700 and the upper Bollinger Band.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Last edited:

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 25th March 2021.

EURUSD in the spotlight.



The US Dollar has posted fresh highs in a continued divergence from US Treasury yields, which have remained broadly stable over the last day. Global stock and commodity markets remain in turbulent waters, which has been maintaining a safe haven bid for the Greenback.

The souring in relations between China and western nations this week remains a concern, the latest development being news that the US securities regulator is taking measures that would de-list foreign companies from US exchanges if they fail to comply with US auditing standards, alongside a requirement to disclose any government affiliations. It is widely understood that such a move would single out Chinese companies the most. Also on the worry list are the new lockdown measures being taken in much of Europe, disruptions in vaccination supplies, and a possible US tax hike. There are also concerns about new SARS-Cov2 variants that are both more transmissible and resistant to current vaccines, and although there is a lack of hard evidence that this is becoming a major problem as yet, it is the principal justification behind the UK and other governments’ decisions to greatly limit international travel.

Against this backdrop, the USDIndex hits its highest level since November 2020, at 92.69.

As safe-haven trades amid another wave of virus cases and more restrictive lockdowns have kept demand underpinned, especially with central banks pledging ongoing stimulus, the key asset to be closely watched today will be the USDIndex but especially EURUSD.



The US Dollar momentum may be pausing for breath now but it could quickly resume if EURUSD breaks below the 1.1800 level. In general Euro and European stocks are still struggling after a mixed session in Asia overnight. A break of 1.1800 could turn crucial for the asset as it could strengthen buying pressure as it is a key psychological level, but on the other hand, markets’ agenda are not in the favour of the Eurozone, while we are just a day before the end of the week and only 4 working days prior to the end of the month and the end of the Quarter.

That said, the choppy trading so far today reveals the unwillingness of the bulls to leave the 1.1800 unguarded, however this along with the end of month and end of quarter flows might find large stops below it. Hence if the bearish bias strengthens drifting the asset below this key level then we could see EURUSD drifting further down, with next Support at 1.1740 and 1.1700. Because of this we might see the US Dollar rally richen to ride the current wave of risk aversion ahead of the weekend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 29th March 2021.

Market Update – March 29 – Oil gapped down on open.



Market News TodayUS equity futures are selling off, led by a more than 1% decline in the USA100 future, amid reports of USD 20 bln Block trades, selling of Chinese tech giants and the US media firm ViacomCBS. Asian stock markets have traded mixed and Japanese indices managed to move higher. JPN225 closed with a gain of 0.57%. The ASX was down -0.36% at the close. European futures are outperforming, but GER30 and UK100 are still down -0.07% and 0.21% respectively. Surging virus numbers in countries such as France weigh on confidence in Eurozone economies, which so far have had relatively relaxed virus restrictions. The UK meanwhile is finally easing its very strict measures, against the background of a successful vaccination campaign.

In FX markets the Yen strengthened and USDJPY fell back to 109.46, although the Dollar strengthened against most other currencies. AUD and NZD began to hand back small Friday gains. AUD slipped along with Australian shares, weighed by losses in technology shares, as Brisbane announcing a fresh three-day lockdown raised fears of a slow economic recovery. The EUR remains down against the Dollar and is currently trading at 1.1777, driven more by concerns over the weakening outlook for growth in the Eurozone in light of rising COVID cases. Cable dropped to 1.3755 (200-hour SMA).

Today
– Data releases today focus on UK money supply and consumer credit data.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (-2.25%) Oil prices dropped at $59.55 after the Ever Given was finally refloated, although it doesn’t seem to be clear yet when the Suez Canal will be open again. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 45 and MACD histogram & signal line clashed without clear indication yet whether this implies consolidation or support. H1 ATR 0.55, Daily ATR 2.62.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 31st March 2021.

Market Update – March 31.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News Today – Treasuries are closing the quarter pretty much as they began, with the belly and long end of the market losing ground. The improving outlooks on growth, fostering a hefty reflation trade, have been boosting yields. The market has also been pricing in inflationary pressures. The 10-year was 1.7 bps cheaper at 1.72%, though rates were off early highs of 1.774% and 1.433% respectively on short covering and positioning into month- and quarter-end.

Currently they are posting fractional gains as markets await more details on stimulus from US President Biden, who is set to speak on infrastructure today. Elsewhere the details on the fallout from Archegos’ collapse weighed on sentiment overnight, and after European markets closed broadly higher yesterday, we are likely to see a more cautious tone, ahead of key data.

In FX markets the Yen weakened and USDJPY lifted to 110.85, although the Dollar strengthened against most other currencies, with USDIndex hitting 93.45. AUD and NZD steadied at March lows. The EUR rebounded on EU open at 1.1725 but remains off 1.1800. Cable dropped to 1.3755 (200-hour SMA). Oil prices remain supported on expectations OPEC+ will keep a lid on output, above 50-DMA for a 4th day. Gold remains low at 1,676.



Today – Data releases today include German jobless numbers and preliminary Eurozone inflation data. The former is likely to show a decline in the sa jobless reading, as parts of the economy re-opened, while the latter is seen jumping sharply higher on the back of base effects, although the headline should remain firmly below the ECB’s implicit target of 2%. The final reading for UK Q4 GDP numbers and US ADP are due today, and President Biden is also due to speak.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.54%) The asset prices spiked at 87.86 reaching R2 , extending the 6 day rally and recovering nearly all March losses. Fast MAs remain are flattened for now, with RSI turning lower below 70, however MACD histogram & signal line are bullishly crossed. These suggest near term consolidation or even pullback with the overall outlook holding positive. H1 ATR 0.126, Daily ATR 0.65.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 2nd April 2021.

NFP – Biggest monthly jobs gain since August 2020.



US March nonfarm payrolls report was a blowout! Payrolls climbed 916,000 after the 468,000 (was 379,000) jump in February and the 233,000 (was 166,000) increase in January for net 156,000 in upward revisions. It is the biggest jump since August’s 1.583 million. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0% from 6.2%.


The labour force surged 347,000 following the 50,000 rebound in February. Household employment was up a hefty 609,000 after gaining 208,000 previously. Average hourly earnings dipped -0.1% but following an upwardly revised 0.3% (was 0.2%) jump. The workweek advanced to 34.9 hours from 34.6. The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.5% from 61.4%.

Total private payrolls were up 780,000 versus 558,000 (was 465,000) previously (and compares to the 517,000 ADP gain). The service sector added 597,000 versus February’s 602,000 (was 513,000) pop. The goods sector added 183,000 with construction contributing 110,000. Leisure and hospitality payrolls rose 280,000, and there was a 136,000 rise in government jobs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFblogNews

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,120
2
74
Date : 5th April 2021.

Market Update – April 5 – Thin volumes but US markets open later.



Market News Today – Quiet today but US is back later – Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, China & Hong Kong closed in Asia, most of Europe, Canada & Latin America all closed. FX markets range bound but USD holds gains after blockbuster NFP data (916k headline, 156k additional jobs in last 2 months), expectations for upward revisions for other March data and Q1 GDP now 4.6% from 4.3%. Nikkei225 closed up 0.8%.

Week AheadRBA (6th) EU PMIs & FOMC Minutes (7th), ECB Minutes, Weekly Claims & Powell speech (8th), CAD Jobs & US PPI (9th).

FOMC minutes and Fedspeak will be highlights in the coming week now that the jobs data is safely and bullishly out of the way. Despite the good news from the payroll report and other recent data, expectations remain that the Fed is unlikely to change its tune on the lower-for-longer policy stance and its commitment to accommodation. The FOMC minutes will be old news, though they will be scrutinized for more information on the dots that showed four members plugging in rate hikes for next year. Fed Chair Powell’s comments from an IMF panel discussion on the global economy (Thursday) will take centre stage. He’s been the most adamant in supporting the dovish stance. Also speaking this week will be voters Bostic, Evans, and Barkin, along with Kaplan and Bullard.

Today – ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index should rise to 57.5 from 55.3 in February.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.24%) rallied from 200MA on open, over 50 MA and R1 (1.9688) now. Upper BB 1.9720. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 69 and rising to test OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0144.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.