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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Fort Financial Services, post: 89131, member: 31380"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]04.09.2015[/b][/color] [i][color=#ff6600][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/color][/i] [i]The US currency was able to return some positions which had been lost the day before - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.85. There was the ADP private sector employment level report published. The August data did not meet the market expectations - the actual number of jobs, created in the private sector, amounted to 190 thousand against the forecasted 201 thousand. Nevertheless, traders chose to ignore the publication and continued to buy the US currency. The United States published the jobless claims weekly report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 12 thousand having increased to 282 thousand. The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the Germany and the US negative government bond yields. On Thursday investors focused their attention on the ECB decision on the monetary policy and on the Mario Draghi's press conference. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%. During the day the pair GBP/USD was within the flat. Investors took profits on the short positions after the six days downward movement. On Thursday investors study the August UK service sector business activity index. The index decreased to 55,6. The pair USD/JPY had increased amid demand for the "risky assets". Nevertheless, then the pair decreased.[/i] [color=#ff6600][i][b]Technical analysis[/b][/i][/color] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The German bond are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts and the stock markets experienced moderate demand for corporate securities, thereby reducing demand for the euro as a funding currency. The ECB announced its monetary policy meeting results and according to them the rate will remain unchanged at the level of 0.05%. The pair euro/dollar continues to trade in downward trend. The support level of 1.1150 was broken and the pair is under the pressure for reduction. The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925. [img]http://savepic.net/7302426.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The UK 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to their US counterparts that reduces the investments attractiveness in British assets and does not contribute to the UK national currency demand. The UK service sector business activity decreased contrary to the traders’ expectations and amounted to 55.6 compared with 57.4 the previous month. The pair pound/dollar is under pressure now. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300 and continues the downward movement. The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5200 and 1.5100. [img]http://savepic.net/7293210.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Yen (JPY)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The leading NASDAQ high-tech index indicates demand for the "risky assets" which is a negative factor for the "safe assets" that traditionally include the Japanese yen. In addition, the US two year government bond yields increase which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate is also a positive factor for the dollar. The pair dollar/yen was forming a growth structure. Having tested the resistance level of 120.40 the pair rebounded downwards. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40. [img]http://savepic.net/7298330.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Franc (CHF)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The dollar has grown against the Swiss franc amid the global stock markets fragile stabilization. The pair dollar/franc continues its growth. The pair broke through the resistance level of 0.9650 and tested the level of 0.9750. The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960. [img]http://savepic.net/7290138.jpg[/img] [i][b]*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, [color=#0099cc]Alexander Kofman.[/color][/b][/i] [/QUOTE]
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