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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Fort Financial Services, post: 88275, member: 31380"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]19.08.2015[/b][/color] [i][color=#ff6600][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/color][/i] [i]The US dollar enjoyed a moderate demand - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 96.83. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Brent oil decrease which in its turn reduced the euro area inflation expectations. The pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the UK and the US bond yields increase. The pair USD/JPY has strengthened after the Japan GDP weak data output. The economic growth fell by 0.4% in the second quarter. There was important statistics published. The UK consumer price inflation rose up by 0.1% in July compared to 0.0% in June and it was forecasted 0.0%. The United States published the building permits volume report for July at the level of 1.119 M (the previous value was 1.337M; it was forecasted 1.232M). Investors should pay attention to the fact that the situation with the US federal budget deficit continues to improve year by year. The United States are fully committed to the budget deficit reduction. By the end of the financial year 2014/2015 is one month and a half. Over the past ten months the US budget deficit (seasonally correcting) has been $428 billion from October to July inclusively against $460 billion in the same period last year (-7% y/y). It is a supporting factor for the US dollar.[/i] [img]http://savepic.net/7149949.jpg[/img] [color=#ff6600][i][b]Technical analysis[/b][/i][/color] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The euro fell against the US dollar. Earlier there was the US and Germany 10-year bond yields reduction which is a positive factor for the single European currency. It was indicated the price moderate growth as the oil "bearish" trend does not allow the EUR/USD "bulls" to rise too high. Sellers have rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1150, thus opening the way for the level of 1.1050 testing. The downward correction is not supported by volumes and it is developing amid the weak volatility. However the bears broke through the level of 1.1050 downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 1.0925. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.0790 will become the next one. Then the pair can decrease to the level of 1.0670. [img]http://savepic.net/7186812.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The main event of the day was the UK CPI publication. The inflation is traditionally indicator №1 for the currency market and in this regard, there was an increased volatility. More than a month the resistance level of 1.5670 has been holding back buyers. The price tested this level again on the yesterday’s trades. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5775, 1.5970. [img]http://savepic.net/7180668.jpg[/img] [/QUOTE]
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