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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Fort Financial Services, post: 87703, member: 31380"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]07.08.2015[/b][/color] [i][color=#ff6600][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/color][/i] [i]This week the currency spent most of the trades in a lull. It is not surprising as we are approaching the end of the week where we expect the most significant releases and during the previous days traders just saved their strength. The pair EUR/USD has recovered, responding to the US ADP data that did not meet their expectations. It turned out that it was created only 185 thousand jobs in the US private sector against the expected 215 thousand in July and 229 thousand in June. It undermined confidence in the dollar, especially in anticipation of the more labor market publication that is the NFP report. After all, if the employment level is unsatisfactory, it can erase all expectations about the possible Fed rate hike. As a result, the dollar faced a sales wave against most rivals, but not for a long time. Shortly after the ADP report there was published the ISM US services sector activity index which in July rose up to 60.3 from the June's 56.0. It was quite enough to initiate the US dollar recovery against its major rivals. However, the dollar failed to maintain the leadership and strengthened only against the pound by the end of the day. The Bank of England released its quarterly inflation report, the monetary policy last meeting minutes and delivered the current rate verdict. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 3 thousand having reached to 270 thousand.[/i] [color=#ff6600][i][b]Technical analysis[/b][/i][/color] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The Germany industrial orders rose up by 2.0% m/m and 7.2% y/y. The German industry rapid growth is connected with the cheap euro and also with the European continuing producer prices decline, though it does not eliminate the deflation threat. The corrective rebound was formed which allowed buyers to test the resistance of 1.0925. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790. [img]http://savepic.net/7052007.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The Bank of England has published the quarterly inflation forecast and the last monetary policy meeting minutes, our expectations lie in the fact that two committee members voted for a rate hike. Also the Bank of England governor Mark Carney made his speech. Later NIESR released the UK GDP forecast for July. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. For a long time the price has been consolidating in the side corridor levels: 1.5670 - 1.5550. The resistance level of 1.5670 was repeatedly tested for durability, but without a subsequent breakthrough. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through. The price fixated under this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5460, 1.5390. [img]http://savepic.net/7038695.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Yen (JPY)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The US private sector new jobs insignificant increase data have supported the yen for a short time. However, the reports about the world largest non-manufacturing sector activity growth not only returned the pair to their original positions, but also raised it up to the new intraday high. The long price consolidation below the resistance level of 124.30 was followed by a breakthrough. The breakthrough was on the high volume, it is highly probable the uptrend continuation. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 125.50, 127.00. [img]http://savepic.net/7032551.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Franc (CHF)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The dollar maintained its optimism against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after the US non-manufacturing sector activity unexpectedly strong data. The ISM non-manufacturing sector activity index was 60.3 vs. 56.2 pp in July. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960. [img]http://savepic.net/7016167.jpg[/img] [i][b]*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, [color=#0099cc]Alexander Kofman.[/color][/b][/i] [/QUOTE]
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