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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Fort Financial Services, post: 87345, member: 31380"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]31.07.2015[/b][/color] [i][color=#ff6600][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/color][/i] [i]Yesterday the US dollar was able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.10. On Wednesday late in the evening there were announced the US Federal Reserve meeting results. Monetary authorities have once again confirmed the labor market progress and they also noted the real estate market growth. It was also pointed out that inflation expectations have not changed compared to the last assessment and it is necessary to wait for more positive macroeconomic data to start the monetary policy tightening phase. At first it upset the market, but ultimately the US currency was set to buy again and the US dollar has strengthened relative to all of its main competitors. The FOMC also pointed out that the federal funds rate first increase can happen in September. Against this background, the pair EUR / USD had decreased by 0.51% by the end of the day, the pair GBP / USD had declined by 0.03% and the pair USD / JPY had increased by 0.30%.[/i] [color=#ff6600][i][b]Technical analysis[/b][/i][/color] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The dollar strengthened against the euro after the US Federal Reserve meeting results publication. The jobless claims have unexpectedly grown to the seasonally adjusted 9,000 in Germany in July, it was reported a decline by 1000 in June, economists expected the unemployment decline by 5000 in July, and however, the labor market remains one of the strongest in the euro area. There was the second quarter US GDP report published. Investors focused their attention to the data that indicate the US jobless claims number. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price get below the Cloud we may get a sell signal. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We believe in pair’s decrease. The first target 1.0925 is reached. The next one is 1.0790. [img]http://savepic.su/5930985.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] Commodity market reacted with the quotations decrease on the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results which is a negative factor for the British currency. Investors focused their attention on the US GDP publication for the second quarter. The industrial production index which best determines this year business cycle dynamics in the second quarter showed a moderate growth. Investors' attention is directed to the initial jobless claims weekly report. The resistance level of 1.5670 false breakthrough was followed by the prices active drop. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460. [img]http://savepic.ru/7723301.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Yen (JPY)[/b][/u][/color] The US Federal Reserve meeting results supported the dollar as a result it has strengthened against the yen. There was published the June industrial production data, we expected a weak report which would put pressure on the Japanese yen. However, the data came out better than expected 0.8% against 0.3% earlier it was-2.1%. Traders focused their attention on the second quarter US GDP release. The US initial jobless claims report is also considered by investors. The strong resistance level of 123.50 breakthrough opened the way for another resistance level of 124.30 testing. The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We support the growth plan. The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70. [img]http://savepic.su/5911529.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Franc (CHF)[/b][/u][/color] The dollar consolidated its position after the FOMC minutes publication where it was noted that the rate would be increased after the labor market continued growth. Following the meeting, the interest rate has remained within the 0.0% -0.25%. Credit Suisse says that the Swiss National Bank losses could reach 50 billion francs in the first half of the year because of the exchange rate, gold and government bonds changes. According to the data publication, the Swiss KOF leading economic indicators rose up to 99.8 this month from 89.8 in June whose indicator was revised up from 89.7. Analysts had expected the index growth by 90.3 in July. Buyers managed to strengthen the strong resistance level of 0.9650. The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued. [img]http://savepic.ru/7700773.jpg[/img] [i][b]*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, [color=#0099cc]Alexander Kofman.[/color][/b][/i] [/QUOTE]
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