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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Fort Financial Services, post: 87140, member: 31380"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]28.07.2015[/b][/color] [i][color=#ff6600][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/color][/i] [i]The US dollar was not able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 96.56. The pair EUR/USD had decreased despite the France and Germany PMI manufacturing and production sector negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless the pair grew by the end of the day. The pair GBP/USD was trading within the flat amid the UK bond yields decrease in relation to their US and Germany counterparts as well as the US new home sales weak data. However the pair increased on the yesterday’s trades. The pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the lack of demand for the "risky assets" as well as the US negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless, the pair increased yesterday. The US new housing market sales publication did not meet our forecasts: the transactions number amounted to only 482 thousand in June against the expected 546 million and 517 million in May. It has played the role of counterweight within the pair EUR/USD that put pressure not on the euro, but on the US dollar as well.[/i] [img]http://savepic.su/5951619.jpg[/img] [color=#ff6600][i][b]Technical analysis[/b][/i][/color] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The last week euro zone and the United States economic data showed a clear divergence: the Eurozone consumer confidence index and the composite PMI weak releases amid the US real estate positive data and jobless claims reduction. Thus, there will be a steady demand for the US dollar in the short term. The euro is recovering its positions against the US dollar. Its corrective growth is on the low volumes and has a target to test the resistance level of 1.1150. The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925, 1.0790. [img]http://savepic.ru/7659024.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The downtrend changed to the upward movement. There are still active sales on the commodity market which is a positive factor for the US currency as the raw material assets cost is denominated in dollars. It should also be noted that the British currency traditionally negatively reacts to the oil bearish trend. Last week the Brent crude finished at the mark of $ 55 / barrel and the next stop will, possibly, be near the 53rd figure. There was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough upwards and trades closed at the level of 1.5572. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] After the trend line 101.85 breakthrough down the way to the support 101.50 will be opened. The resistance level of 1.5670 test is more likely to lead to the rebound downwards. [img]http://savepic.su/5926019.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Yen (JPY)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] We noted the "bearish" sentiments prevalence. The lack of demand for the "risky assets" contributed to the carry trade transactions closure that will cause demand for the Japanese yen. The negative trend is confirmed by the debt market: the US and Japan 10-year bond yields are reducing which is clearly at the "bears" hands. There was the support level of 123.50 breakthrough which was followed by the very low volumes. The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We may expect the growth towards 123.50 further on we expect a fall to 122.40. [img]http://savepic.ru/7643664.jpg[/img] [i][b]*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, [color=#0099cc]Alexander Kofman.[/color][/b][/i] [/QUOTE]
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