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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Fort Financial Services, post: 87083, member: 31380"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]27.07.2015[/b][/color] [i][color=#ff6600][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/color][/i] [i]At the end of the last week the pair EUR/USD increased amid the pair EUR/GBP growth and amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. Then the pair consolidated. By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had decreased after the June UK retail sales publication - the index decreased by 0.2%. The pound fell after the retail sales weak data output. The data were disappointing. They negated the British retailers' consortium and the British Industry Confederation earlier studies. In general the news is not good, but the consumer spending trend is still growing. In fact, the retail sales showed an increase by 4% y/y while consumer confidence is at the 15-year high, real wages rose up by almost 3% y/y while the employment continues to rise. So consumer spending is not in danger. On the contrary, the United States pleased traders with the positive jobless claims. However the pair pound/dollar slightly corrected. During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the world leading stock markets sales which hindered the US dollar's growth. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the day. After the US jobless claims publication we observed the commodity market sales which is also a positive factor for the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.[/i] [color=#ff6600][i][b]Technical analysis[/b][/i][/color] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] Markit Economics has presented the France and the Germany manufacturing sectors business climate data. The France industrial sector business climate will amount 49.6 in July, the Germany industrial sector business climate will amount 51.5. There is the production orders growth in both economies amid the euro devaluation which increases the products competiveness abroad. The euro is still correcting relative to the US dollar, breaking through the resistance level of 1.0925 upwards. The pair is consolidating above this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. The next targets are the levels of 1.1150, 1.1260. [img]http://savepic.su/5899670.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The UK retail sales release indicates that the British prefer to save more than spend. Despite the strong population revenue growth – the June sales decreased by 0.2%. The consumer demand reduction is a negative factor for the state economic growth. The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the active prices decrease by 160 points. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through which now acts as a resistance. The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] If the price fixates below the resistance 1.5550, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5460 and 1.5390. [img]http://savepic.ru/7661419.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Yen (JPY)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] Last week Japan disappointed investors with the June trade balance weak data while the United States is pleased with the secondary market housing sales positive report as well as the jobless claims reduction. The downward correction which began from the resistance level of 124.30 stopped at the support level of 123.50. The price came up to the level amid the low volumes and went into the prolonged consolidation and a slight decrease. The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The sellers need to break below 123.50 for a steady downward trend. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. [img]http://savepic.su/5952937.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][u][b]Franc (CHF)[/b][/u][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] Last week US jobless claims release was quite encouraging. The primary and the secondary jobless claims reduction points out to the labor market positive trends in particular and in the economy in general. Against this background, the Forex market will re-live expectations about the federal funds rate growth in September which will support the US dollar. The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850. [img]http://savepic.ru/7630699.jpg[/img] [i][b]*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, [color=#0099cc]Alexander Kofman.[/color][/b][/i] [/QUOTE]
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