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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Valdis, post: 70281, member: 30420"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [u][b]01.10.2014[/b][/u] [color=#ff9900][i][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/i][/color] [i]The first part of the week has passed quietly enough for the single European currency that has been decreasing. Spain and Germany have published the September inflation preliminary data. Both figures were better than the forecasted medians, but still there was no CPI increase. The euro exchange rate at the moment reached 1.2715, but the bulls did not find strength for something else. The US private expenses consumption release can be slightly better than the traders expect, which will support the demand for the dollar. The PCE index showed an increase by 0.1% in August which is a positive factor for the economic growth. The GBP/USD has showed a moderate increase by 0.15%. Nevertheless the pair fell down. There were no fundamental prerequisites for the British currency consolidation - M4 monetary aggregate still points out to the inflationary pressure fall which is a negative factor for the monetary policy tightening. The traders took profits on short positions, as a result we observed the moderate pound growth before the pair decreased. The sales at the biggest world stock exchange market have frozen the USD/JPY bulls’ enthusiasm. However, we have not observed the American currency strong sales that confirms a stable upward trend. The market participants remain positive about the dollar/yen and increase the "longs" on corrective dips. The US real personal consumption expenditure allowed the USD/JPY to close the trading day in the "green zone".[/i] [IMG]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/141001/IEB2Tr3sf5.jpg[/IMG] [color=#ff9900][u][b]Technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#00cc00][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/color] [color=#0033cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The euro/dollar remains under pressure against the dollar position. The US consumption expenditure rose in August, supporting the optimistic forecasts for the American economy. The American two-year bond yield approached the maximum level by 0.6 % from May 2011. The price consolidated below the resistance level of 1.2730 and then it fell down to the support level of 1.2600. The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. [color=#0033cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2500. We do not exclude the growth to 1.2730. [IMG]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/141001/ygZ98M7ay6.jpg[/IMG] [color=#00cc00][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/color] [color=#0033cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The British pound partly compensated its losses incurred earlier against the dollar after the UK positive economic data publication. The August consumer lending amounted to £0.898 billion that exceeded the forecasts, but turned out to be worse than the July values total 1.108 billion. The British pound is correcting upward at the low volumes. The price movement priority direction is a downtrend. The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. [color=#0033cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] After the trend line 1.6270 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6180 will be opened. [IMG]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/141001/DLWhS8T2hC.jpg[/IMG] [/QUOTE]
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