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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Valdis, post: 69795, member: 30420"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [u][b]23.09.2014[/b][/u] [color=#ff9900][i][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/i][/color] [i]The American dollar has significantly strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades with the maximum levels for the last 4 years. Against the empty macroeconomic calendar the EUR/USD decreased after the last week correction growth. The traders actively sold the euro, expending the differential returns on the 10 –year American and the German state bonds. It should be noted that the short euro positions were observed along the entire market. As the old trading rule says «buy the rumor, sell the fact”. 55.3% of voters in the Scotland referendum opposed the independence and against this background we observed the GBP/USD long positions closing. Prior to the official results announcement the British currency voting quotes reached the level of 1.6523 at the moment, after which we observed a sharp pound rise and against this negative background the «cable» has lost 0.68%. The Japan continues to disappoint the traders by a negative macroeconomic statistics. This time we got the index activity weak report in all economic sectors which showed a reduction of 0.2% in July. This indicator decline has been observed for 2 months in a row that points to the service and the manufacturing difficulties. Against this negative background the bullish rally for the USD/JPY continued and at the moment the prices reached the level of 109.45. The last time the dollar rose so high in September 2008.[/i] [IMG]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140923/f6Rc3w2u5W.jpg[/IMG] [color=#ff9900][u][b]Technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#00cc00][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/color] [color=#0033cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] Euro remains under pressure. The published German inflation data fulfilled the analysts' forecasts and it was completely ignored by the market. Thus, the producer price index fell by 0.1% m/m and 0.8% y/y in August. The level of 1.2930 retesting was followed by a price drop back below against the increased volume. The channel upper limit rebound allowed the sellers to break and consolidate below the support level of 1.2850. The price is finding the first support at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2930. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. [color=#0033cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2790 soon. [IMG]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140923/unDbHj27XX.jpg[/IMG] [color=#00cc00][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/color] [color=#0000cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The pound rose after the Scotland referendum results which showed that the Scots do not want to separate from the UK. The pair then fell again. The corrective wave from 1.6440 was stopped by the descending trend line. Approach to the price trend line was followed by a deep test in an attempt to break above this resistance. However, the "buyers’ exploits" came to an end and the pair decreased to the level of 1.6340 area. The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. [color=#0000cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.6270. [IMG]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140923/z9W0K9HG1R.jpg[/IMG] [/QUOTE]
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