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Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis
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[QUOTE="Valdis, post: 69372, member: 30420"] [color=#00cc00][u][b]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [u][b]16.09.2014[/b][/u] [color=#ff9900][i][b]Fundamental analysis[/b][/i][/color] [i]The American dollar has been growing for nine weeks, showing the longest rise in the last 17 years, due to the Federal Reserve interest rates changing in 2015 while the other major central banks have a more easy monetary policy. Even taking into account the fact that the last week the dollar did not show the strongest growth, it still was at the top the last three months. We can see the American currency growth potential, especially if this week the Fed surprises the market by the policy tightening. The dollar is supported by the United States positive economic data and the ECB's decision to cut the interest rates. The United States growth is higher than in the other most developed countries. In addition, the Fed is going to raise the rates, while the ECB and the Bank of Japan are still going to continue easing. Now more and more market participants expect the Fed interest rates rising in June 2015 and not in September as it was previously predicted. The ECB is expected to continue to take the necessary measures to hold the low interest rates for the long term which ultimately lead to a higher inflation. Against this background, a large and a long-term the euro downtrend is predicted towards the dollar parity. The EUR/USD grown a few as the market attitude to the euro improving result amid the industrial production data in the euro zone that have exceeded expectations. But the uptrend is limited by the European Central Bank super easy policy. The pair is consolidating.[/i] [img]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140916/a9aA8zkzPR.jpg[/img] [color=#ff9900][u][b]Technical analysis[/b][/u][/color] [color=#00cc00][b]Euro (EUR)[/b][/color] [color=#0033cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] The euro fell after the published data showed that the industrial production and the retail sales growth in China was slowed in August, adding fears over the world's largest economy slowdown. The support level of 1.2930 temporarily stopped the downward trend. Four days price consolidation above was a signal for the corrective movement upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a «Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. [color=#0033cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3000. After breaking 1.3000 the buyers may go to 1.3070. [img]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140916/wrkf7l7pdg.jpg[/img] [color=#00cc00][b]Pound (GBP)[/b][/color] [color=#0033cc][b]General overview[/b][/color] As a part of the referendum in Scotland expectations the pound/dollar is likely to stay under a pressure, and the downward movement is likely to be continued regardless of its result. The larger correction development can start after a local minimum is formed. The pound’s target was the gap closing. Against the background of the high-volume the buyers were not only able to close the gap, but also came close to the strong resistance level of 1.6270. The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. [color=#0033cc][b]Trading recommendations[/b][/color] The pair is close to the strong resistance 1.6270-1.6290. If the pair retests it we expect the consolidation. [img]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140916/0YgG15K1jU.jpg[/img] [/QUOTE]
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