ForexTechnical Analysis

[FXGLORY]

GOLD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.10.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GOLD/USD (XAUUSD) market is trading cautiously as traders await key speeches from multiple Federal Reserve (FOMC) members, including Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, and Alberto Musalem. Their remarks are expected to provide further clues about the Fed’s stance on inflation, monetary tightening, and future interest rate decisions. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports later today could significantly influence the USD’s direction and, in turn, impact gold prices. Any hawkish tone or stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment data could strengthen the USD, putting temporary pressure on XAU/USD, while dovish commentary might support a rebound in gold. Overall, the market remains sensitive to Fed rhetoric amid lingering inflationary concerns and geopolitical risk factors that continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold.


Price Action:
On the XAUUSD H4 timeframe, the gold price has recently recorded a new All-Time High (ATH) at 4059.01 USD on October 8th, before entering a mild correction phase. The price has now moved below the psychological 4000.00 level, currently trading around 3974.68 USD. Despite this retracement, the pair remains within a clearly defined ascending bullish channel, maintaining an overall bullish structure that has persisted throughout 2025, with only one bearish month (July). The recent pullback has tested the 3940.00 support zone, which has held firm so far, indicating ongoing buyer interest. A break below this zone could expose the 3900.00 level as the next major support, while recovery above 4000.00 may resume the bullish leg toward retesting the ATH.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 9 & 17): The short-term MA (9) has slightly turned downward, reflecting the ongoing price correction, yet it remains above the MA (17), showing that the overall bullish structure is still intact. However, the narrowing gap between the two averages suggests potential short-term consolidation or a minor bearish crossover if downward momentum extends.
RSI (Relative Strength Index 14): The RSI(14) stands at 49.41, indicating a neutral market sentiment after the recent overbought conditions near the ATH. This mid-range value suggests equilibrium between buyers and sellers, leaving room for either a bounce from support or further correction if selling pressure strengthens.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD currently shows the main line at 23.749 and the signal line at 38.510, displaying a decreasing histogram. This signals waning bullish momentum and a possible short-term correction phase within the broader uptrend. Traders should monitor for any bearish crossover that might confirm further downside movement toward support.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The first key support is at 3940.00, which has already shown price reaction, followed by 3900.00 as the secondary and more crucial support zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance remains at the psychological 4000.00 level, while the ATH of 4059.01 serves as the major resistance to beat for continuation of the bullish trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The XAUUSD H4 chart analysis suggests that despite the recent pullback below 4000, Gold remains in a strong long-term bullish trend, supported by an ascending channel structure and firm demand from global investors. However, short-term technicals hint at potential consolidation as the market digests recent gains and anticipates fresh guidance from upcoming FOMC speeches. Traders should closely monitor support at 3940.00 and the reaction to USD-related news today, as these factors could define the next directional move. A rebound above 4000.00 would likely reignite bullish momentum, while a sustained drop below 3900.00 could trigger a deeper correction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.10.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.13.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The NZD/USD currency pair is expected to experience moderate volatility today, as the US Dollar faces low liquidity due to the Columbus Day holiday, leading to potentially irregular market movements. Additionally, the ongoing IMF meetings in Washington DC may influence investor sentiment, especially as discussions center around global economic growth and inflation. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could gain some support from positive domestic data expectations, with the BusinessNZ Services Index and tourism arrival reports highlighting gradual recovery in the services and travel sectors. However, the global economic uncertainty and discussions from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson may provide further clues on US monetary policy, indirectly impacting NZD-USD price movements.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, the NZD/USD pair remains in a bearish trend, trading between two descending trend lines acting as dynamic support and resistance. The upper resistance line is notably steeper than the lower support line, confirming sustained selling pressure. However, the latest two H4 candles turned bullish and green, bouncing from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, signaling a short-term corrective rebound after touching key support. Moreover, all higher timeframes (H1, H4, Daily, and Weekly) have also printed green candles since the market opened, suggesting an early-stage correction phase or a temporary pullback within the prevailing downtrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 17): The short-term MA 9 (blue) is trading below the MA 17 (orange), with both moving downward, confirming the ongoing bearish structure. However, the gap between the two averages is narrowing slightly, which could indicate a potential slowing of bearish momentum if buyers maintain recent upward pressure.
Parabolic SAR (0.05 / 0.2): The Parabolic SAR dots remain positioned above the NZD USD price candles, which reinforces the current bearish bias. Until the dots flip below the candles, the primary trend remains downward. A reversal in SAR positioning would serve as an early confirmation of a potential bullish correction continuation.
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39.74, indicating a mildly oversold zone. The RSI line is showing signs of turning upward, reflecting possible early bullish momentum or a technical correction after extended downside pressure.
MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD main line (-0.001903) remains below the signal line (-0.001635), maintaining a bearish stance. However, the histogram bars are shortening, signaling weakening bearish momentum and potential convergence; often a precursor to a short-term bullish crossover if buying activity continues.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Key support is observed near 0.5714 – 0.5728, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and lower trendline, acting as the immediate defense zone for the bulls.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is located around 0.5767 – 0.5773, coinciding with the descending trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, representing a key level to watch for continuation or rejection of the corrective move.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD H4 technical and fundamental outlook shows the pair trading in a bearish trend but currently attempting a short-term bullish correction from the 0.618 Fibonacci support level. The alignment of green candles across multiple timeframes suggests improving buyer sentiment, though confirmation remains pending a breakout above the descending resistance trendline. Traders should monitor upcoming IMF discussions and any remarks from Federal Reserve officials, as they could shift USD strength and overall sentiment. Given the US Bank Holiday, market liquidity may remain thin, increasing the likelihood of irregular volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.13.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.14.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s fundamental analysis for the EUR/USD currency pair is driven by key data releases and central bank commentary for both the US Dollar and the Euro. The Eurozone's economic sentiment is under the spotlight with the release of the highly anticipated ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the Euro Area, which acts as a leading indicator of economic health and can inject significant market volatility into the Euro (EUR) if actual figures diverge from the consensus forecast. Simultaneously, the US Dollar (USD) is set for volatility due to a series of high-impact speeches from top Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Christopher Waller, whose comments on the economic outlook and future monetary policy will be intensely scrutinized by Forex traders for clues on the Fed’s path for interest rates. Traders should also note the release of the US NFIB Small Business Index, which offers insight into the underlying strength of the US economy, creating a high-risk environment for the daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD price action on the H4 timeframe clearly reflects a dominant bearish trend that has been accelerating since mid-September's high, confirming a sustained downtrend. The price is consistently printing lower highs and lower lows, remaining well below a clear descending trend line which has repeatedly acted as a dynamic resistance level. Currently, the price has failed to hold above the psychological level of 1.0600 and is testing recent lows, suggesting that the sellers are firmly in control. The overall chart structure points to strong downward momentum with very little buying interest to counter the sustained pressure, reinforcing a bearish Forex trading strategy as long as the price remains below the critical trend line resistance.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Dots are placed consistently above the candles, definitively confirming the strong bearish trend on the H4 chart and reinforcing selling pressure. Upward moves are likely corrective.
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 17): The short MA 9 is below the long MA 17 and they are moving downward above the candles, confirming a powerful bearish crossover and acting as a dynamic resistance zone.
RSI (Relative Strength Index 14): The RSI is at 37.64, deep in bearish territory but not yet oversold, indicating room for the price to fall. It currently supports the downtrend continuation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence 12,26,9): The MACD line (−0.002161) is marginally above the Signal Line (−0.002257) in negative territory, suggesting a brief easing of downside momentum or consolidation, but the overall negative reading confirms dominant long-term selling pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The primary support to watch for this Forex trading analysis is located at the significant psychological and long-term horizontal level of $1.05390, a break of which would open the door for a continuation toward $1.04700.
Resistance: The immediate and crucial resistance level for the EUR/USD technical chart is $1.06620, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and the descending trend line.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The comprehensive EUR/USD H4 chart forecast indicates a strongly entrenched bearish trend driven by multiple technical confirmations, including the Parabolic SAR, the bearish crossover and alignment of the MAs, and the sub-50 RSI reading. The current price action suggests a potential pause or shallow retracement, but the overall technical structure heavily favors sellers. Consideration must be given to the high-impact USD and EUR news scheduled today, particularly the ZEW data and the numerous Fed speeches, which have the potential to override technical patterns and cause abrupt volatility. Forex traders should manage risk tightly, as any hawkish comments from the Fed or unexpectedly weak ZEW figures could fuel a sharp break below the current support, validating a continued bearish EUR/USD trading strategy.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.14.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.15.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
Today's EURGBP pair is influenced significantly by scheduled speeches from Bank of England officials, including Deputy Governors David Ramsden and Sarah Breeden. Traders will closely follow these discussions for subtle indications regarding future monetary policy shifts. For the EUR, attention will be drawn to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release from INSEE and the Eurozone's Industrial Production data from Eurostat. Positive outcomes or stronger-than-anticipated results could provide support to the Euro, while hawkish stances by BOE officials could strengthen the GBP, potentially causing volatility in EURGBP.


Price Action
EURGBP analysis on the H4 timeframe shows the pair maintaining a bullish trend, evident from higher lows. Recently, the emergence of lower highs suggests a potential transition towards sideways market conditions. With candles approaching the established support trendline, traders should be alert to a possible trend shift or at least short-term consolidation as the candles have been approaching the support line.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: Currently, the bands have expanded noticeably, indicating increased volatility. The bands might soon start converging slightly, reflecting anticipated market consolidation or diminished volatility. Traders should watch for candles moving closer to the central Bollinger Band for clearer signals.
RSI: The RSI indicator is presently at 53.82, reflecting balanced market conditions with neither overbought nor oversold extremes. This neutral positioning suggests potential price stabilization or minor fluctuations in the short term.
Williams’ Percentage Range: At -17.51, Williams’ %R indicates the pair is nearing overbought conditions, suggesting limited upward momentum potential in the short term. Traders might consider possible corrective moves or consolidation phases soon.


Support and Resistance
Support: The primary support is currently situated around the ascending trendline near the 0.8670 level, reinforced by recent candle lows.
Resistance: Immediate resistance appears near the 0.8735 to 0.8740 range, aligning with recent highs and upper Bollinger Band boundaries.


Conclusion and Consideration
EURGBP’s H4 chart analysis demonstrates bullish momentum with emerging signs of potential consolidation. Traders should closely observe the fundamental news from BOE officials and upcoming CPI and industrial production data from the Eurozone, which could significantly influence the currency pair's direction. Given technical indicators signaling possible limited upside, market participants should prepare for volatility and potential sideways movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.15.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.16.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD-USD pair today may experience significant volatility due to important economic events from both Australia and the US. Australian employment data and unemployment rate releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics can substantially impact the AUD, with better-than-forecast numbers likely providing strength to the Australian dollar. Additionally, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent’s speech will be closely monitored for any hints regarding future monetary policy, adding another layer of potential volatility. Conversely, the US Dollar could be influenced by key speeches from several Federal Reserve Governors, including Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, Stephen Miran, and Michelle Bowman, alongside data from the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey and other economic indicators. Any hawkish commentary may provide support to the USD.


Price Action:
AUD/USD price analysis on the H4 timeframe indicates an ongoing uptrend, moving within a clearly defined ascending wedge. The recent price action shows a strong reaction to the lower trendline of the wedge, suggesting the possibility of a bounce upwards. If this support holds, the price could rally towards the upper trendline of the wedge. However, a decisive breakdown below this immediate support zone could open the door for further downward pressure.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index currently stands at 41.21, signaling neutral to slightly bearish momentum. Traders should watch closely as RSI approaching 30 might indicate oversold conditions and a potential bullish reversal.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD indicator is slightly negative (-0.001316) and remains below its signal line (-0.001886), indicating mild bearish momentum. Traders should watch for a bullish crossover as a potential reversal signal.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): Currently at 46.66 and 65.68, the Stochastic oscillator remains neutral. Traders should observe whether it moves towards the overbought or oversold zones for clearer signals regarding short-term price movements.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are found at approximately 0.6430, near the ascending wedge's lower boundary. A secondary support zone lies around 0.6390 if initial support is breached.
Resistance: Resistance is initially seen around 0.6535, coinciding with the recent swing highs. Further resistance resides near 0.6645 at the upper trendline of the wedge.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD USD H4 chart analysis highlights a continuing bullish bias within an ascending wedge structure but cautions due to bearish signals from key technical indicators. Traders should closely monitor reactions at key support (0.6430, 0.6390) and resistance levels (0.6535, 0.6645). The economic calendar, featuring crucial employment data from Australia and influential speeches from US Federal Reserve officials, could significantly affect market sentiment and volatility. Trading decisions should be accompanied by strict risk management.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.16.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.17.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTC/USD pair continues to face notable volatility amid tightening global monetary sentiment and uncertainty surrounding U.S. regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies. Today’s USD-related news events, featuring Federal Reserve officials Stephen Miran, Neel Kashkari, and Alberto Musalem, are expected to bring potential volatility to the dollar market. As these FOMC voting members participate in high-profile economic discussions, any hawkish comments hinting at tighter monetary policy could strengthen the USD and place short-term bearish pressure on Bitcoin. On the other hand, if their tone leans dovish, BTC USD might find some relief, especially as investors seek alternative assets amid inflationary concerns.


Price Action:
The BTC/USD H4 chart shows that Bitcoin has been in a descending trend, with an approximate -14.5% drop from the previous high. After touching the $107,500 support zone, the price formed a new green bullish candle, signaling potential short-term buying pressure. This support level has been tested multiple times, highlighting its strength as a key demand area. However, a single bullish candle is insufficient to confirm a long-term reversal. The next resistance lies near $110,000, aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone. Traders should watch closely to see if Bitcoin can sustain above $107,500 or if the bears will regain control and drive the price lower.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: BTC-USD trades in the lower half of the Bands, touching the lower boundary, signaling sustained bearish pressure with a possible short-term rebound.
RSI (28): The RSI at 36.07 hovers near oversold territory, suggesting selling momentum is weakening and a short-term bounce could occur.
%R (14): The %R at -85.37 confirms an oversold condition, indicating potential for a limited recovery if buying pressure emerges.erm, increasing the likelihood of a technical bounce if buying volume picks up near the $107,500 zone.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate and strong support is established around $107,500, a key psychological and Fibonacci-based level that has been tested multiple times and previously triggered bullish reactions.
Resistance: The nearest resistance stands at $110,000, aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and marking the next barrier for any bullish continuation attempt.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The BTC/USD H4 technical outlook indicates a market at a crucial inflection point. While the price action suggests potential for a short-term rebound from the $107,500 area, confirmation from additional bullish candles and improving RSI is essential before assuming a trend reversal. The broader structure remains bearish unless Bitcoin breaks above $110,000 with volume support. Fundamentally, traders should stay alert to Federal Reserve speakers’ remarks today, as any hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar and pressure BTCUSD further. Short-term traders may look for intraday buying opportunities near support, while medium-term investors should wait for clearer confirmation of trend reversal signals.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.17.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.21.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the USD/CAD pair may experience increased volatility due to key economic events from Canada and the US. Canada is releasing crucial CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, an essential indicator of inflation influencing monetary policy and interest rates. Higher-than-expected CPI readings typically strengthen the Canadian dollar (CAD). Additionally, USD traders will closely monitor remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller during the Federal Reserve Board Payments Innovation Conference, as hawkish sentiments can provide bullish support for the USD.


Price Action:
The USD-CAD pair analysis on the H4 timeframe illustrates a clear bullish trend moving within an ascending price channel. Currently, the price hovers around the upper band of this channel, suggesting potential retracement or consolidation. A pullback towards immediate support around 1.39757 is plausible; breaking this level may lead the price towards secondary support at 1.38657 or the channel’s lower boundary. Conversely, a breakout above the channel could target resistance at 1.41658.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50.70, indicating neutral momentum. The current position suggests equilibrium between buyers and sellers, allowing for either continuation or a retracement within the ascending channel.
MACD (12,26,9): The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays minimal positive divergence, signaling weakening bullish momentum. Traders should remain cautious and monitor potential bearish crossovers, indicating a shift toward selling pressure.
Stochastic (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator registers values of 60.20 and 65.51, indicating moderate bullish strength but suggesting the pair is not yet in overbought conditions. A further rise or mild consolidation is likely before significant reversals occur.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.39757, aligning with recent price consolidation. Secondary support is positioned at 1.38657, coinciding with the ascending channel's lower boundary.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.41658, aligning with the upper horizontal resistance and recent highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The technical analysis of the USD CAD H4 chart reveals sustained bullish momentum within an ascending channel, supported by RSI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators. Given today's economic news releases, traders must be cautious, as volatility could increase dramatically, influenced by Canadian CPI figures and speeches from the Federal Reserve. Monitoring the critical support and resistance levels mentioned is essential for identifying breakout or reversal points.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.21.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.28.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair represents the strength comparison between the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, both currencies are influenced by several key economic releases. On the USD side, traders are awaiting data from the S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI), FHFA House Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. These indicators are crucial as they provide insight into the overall economic health, consumer sentiment, and housing market stability—factors that can influence the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy outlook. On the Eurozone side, the NIQ Consumer Sentiment Index is scheduled for release, which will reflect consumer optimism across member states. Stronger-than-expected data from Europe could provide the EUR some support; however, the USD remains dominant amid persistent expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates in the U.S. economy. As a result, market participants should anticipate moderate volatility in the EUR/USD H4 trading sessions today.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 chart shows that the pair has been trading in a bearish trend, but recently initiated a corrective upward move. After rebounding from the lower boundary of the descending channel and the green trendline, the price started forming higher lows. The price is currently positioned above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and is moving toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level, signaling a short-term bullish correction within the broader bearish structure.
The presence of multiple green candles near the ascending support line confirms buyer interest, while the Parabolic SAR dots below the candles indicate short-term bullish pressure. This aligns with improving momentum and a possible retest of the 1.1680–1.1700 zone, representing the next major resistance area.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the current candles, signaling the start of a potential bullish correction. This change indicates that buyers are gradually regaining control in the short term, and as long as the dots remain below the price, upward momentum may continue.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line currently reads 0.000419 and the signal line -0.000007, reflecting early bullish convergence. The histogram is showing positive momentum, suggesting that the bearish pressure is fading. A further widening between the MACD and signal lines would confirm continued short-term upside movement in EUR/USD H4 trading.
RSI (28): The RSI is positioned at 52.89, slightly above the neutral 50 level, which indicates that the pair is recovering from oversold conditions. This reading supports the idea of a short-term correction while maintaining potential room for additional upward movement before entering overbought territory.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The first key support lies around 1.1570, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the upward trendline base. A break below this zone could resume the bearish momentum.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is located at 1.1680–1.1700, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper boundary of the current recovery channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the EUR/USD H4 technical analysis suggests that the pair is currently undergoing a bullish correction within a broader bearish trend. The alignment of the Parabolic SAR, MACD, and RSI supports continued short-term upside momentum, targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci level near 1.1680. However, traders should remain cautious, as strong USD fundamentals and upcoming U.S. housing and consumer confidence data could trigger renewed bearish sentiment.
Short-term traders may consider buying on dips above the trendline support, while swing traders should watch for potential reversals near resistance.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.28.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.29.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair is influenced today by significant economic data from both Australia and the United States. Australia's CPI figures, essential for assessing inflationary pressures, could potentially strengthen the Australian Dollar if the actual figures surpass forecasts, implying stronger inflationary pressures and increased likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Conversely, the US Dollar faces potential volatility with data from pending home sales, crude oil inventories, and particularly from the FOMC's statements and interest rate decisions. Traders will closely monitor these events for hints on future monetary policy shifts, significantly influencing the USD valuation.


Price Action:
Analyzing the AUD/USD pair on the H4 timeframe, the candles have been progressing within a bullish channel over an extended period. Despite a recent unsuccessful breakout, the price action re-entered the bullish channel and resumed upward momentum following a correction phase. Currently, the sharp bullish momentum indicates minimal likelihood of an immediate bearish correction. Buyers are likely to maintain control until the pair reaches its previous high around the resistance level of 0.66048. If bearish pressure emerges, the trendline support of the bullish channel may serve as the subsequent downside target.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently, dots are positioned below the candles, clearly indicating a bullish trend continuation. The indicator suggests strong buying momentum persisting in the short-term scenario.
William's %R: The indicator currently stands at -11.66, reflecting overbought conditions. However, in a robust bullish trend, such conditions might persist, implying continued strength and limited bearish retracement in the short term.
MACD: The MACD histogram is bullish, at 0.001959, with the signal line slightly below at 0.001615. This setup confirms ongoing bullish momentum, but traders should be vigilant for any narrowing which might suggest weakening momentum ahead.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is identified at the bullish channel's lower trendline around 0.65180, providing a robust barrier against bearish movements.
Resistance: Resistance is prominently placed at the previous high near the 0.66048 level, marking a critical threshold for bullish continuation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The technical outlook for AUD/USD on the H4 chart indicates sustained bullish momentum, supported by clear bullish signals from Parabolic SAR, William's %R, and MACD indicators. Traders should monitor closely for possible fluctuations from today's pivotal economic announcements from Australia and the US, particularly the US FOMC statements and interest rate decisions, which could significantly impact market volatility and direction. Given the current bullish scenario, vigilance at critical resistance and support levels is recommended.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.29.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.30.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDJPY currency pair is expected to exhibit significant volatility today, primarily influenced by events surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY). Traders should closely monitor announcements from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), specifically regarding interest rate decisions, statements, and the subsequent press conference by the BOJ Governor. Given the typical impact of these events on currency valuation—especially concerning the BOJ's stance on inflation and economic outlook—JPY could experience sharp fluctuations. Meanwhile, no major USD events today suggest that the focus remains predominantly on JPY-driven news.


Price Action:
USDJPY on the H4 chart continues moving within a bullish ascending channel, reflecting steady bullish momentum. Currently, the price is at the upper band of the bullish channel, potentially indicating a forthcoming sideways or consolidative market behavior. Recent candle formations have shown consistent bullish intent, though encountering resistance near the channel’s upper line, suggesting traders remain cautious for a possible pullback or consolidation.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands on USDJPY indicate bullish sentiment as the price continues to remain above the middle band. However, the upper band proximity may lead to short-term consolidation. Traders should remain alert for price reactions near the upper band, indicating possible resistance and volatility expansions.
Stochastic (5,3,3): Currently reading at 70.58 and 65.16, the stochastic oscillator signals a mild bullish momentum, nearing overbought territory. This indicates potential slowing momentum and traders should monitor closely for potential bearish divergence signaling reversal risks.
Williams %R (14): With a current value of -22.36, Williams %R supports bullish bias but similarly hints at a potential pullback or consolidation. This aligns with stochastic signals, further reinforcing the need for caution at current price levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is situated around the channel’s midline near 151.500, which previously served as a critical price reaction point.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is established at the upper channel boundary near 153.100, marking recent highs and potential price exhaustion points.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY pair’s bullish channel indicates sustained bullish potential, supported by current technical indicators. Yet, the proximity to resistance levels and mild overbought conditions signals caution for possible consolidation or mild corrections. Traders should closely follow BOJ communications today, given their significant potential to alter short-term price action.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.30.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.31.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD currency pair today is influenced primarily by a series of key U.S. Federal Reserve events, with several FOMC members including Lorie Logan, Raphael Bostic, and Beth Hammack scheduled to speak at the Evolving Landscape of Bank Funding Conference. Traders are closely monitoring their remarks for hints about future interest rate policy and potential shifts in the Fed’s stance toward inflation and economic growth. A more hawkish tone could strengthen the U.S. Dollar. Meanwhile, from the Canadian side, GDP data from Statistics Canada remains a key focus, with markets anticipating its next release later in November. Stronger-than-expected growth would support the Canadian Dollar, but today’s sentiment is likely to be dominated by U.S. policy commentary, keeping the USD/CAD exchange rate sensitive to Fed-related remarks and risk sentiment.


Price Action:
The USDCAD H4 chart shows that the pair continues to trade within a clear ascending channel, maintaining a bullish trend overall. Recently, the price bounced from the 1.39000 support level and rallied upward toward 1.40000, which acts as the first resistance near the regression channel’s midline. The market structure suggests steady bullish momentum, though short-term corrections are visible. A breakout above 1.40000 could pave the way toward 1.40600 resistance, while a failure to hold above the channel midpoint may lead to a retest of 1.39000 or deeper supports at 1.38000 and 1.37300.


Key Technical Indicators:
Stochastic (5,3,3): The Stochastic Oscillator is currently at 64.27 and 72.93, signaling that bullish momentum is still active but approaching overbought territory. This suggests possible short-term consolidation or mild retracement before the next upward move, especially if the pair fails to break the 1.40000 resistance cleanly.
Williams %R (14): The %R indicator stands at -24.37, which places it near the overbought zone. This reflects that buyers are in control but the pair may experience short-term exhaustion. If the indicator turns downward, a brief correction could follow, offering new entry opportunities near support levels within the channel.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support zone is around 1.39000, followed by deeper levels at 1.38000 and 1.37300, which historically have acted as strong demand areas.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is located at 1.40000, aligning with the channel’s midline. The next resistance stands at 1.40600, representing the upper boundary of the bullish channel and a potential breakout target.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 analysis indicates that the pair is trading in a bullish trend, supported by both price action and technical indicators. However, short-term caution is advised as the Stochastic and Williams %R approach overbought levels, which may lead to minor pullbacks before further gains. The overall bias remains bullish while the price stays above 1.39000. Traders should monitor today’s U.S. Fed speeches and market sentiment closely, as any hawkish commentary could reinforce USD strength and support a breakout above 1.40000.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.31.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.04.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD pair, representing the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, faces potential volatility today due to high-impact economic news. ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech at the Bulgarian National Bank and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel's address in Berlin could induce significant movements in the euro, especially if their commentary hints at future monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, the USD could react positively to Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman's insights on the Fed's policy stance during the Santander International Banking Conference, as well as the RCM/TIPP Consumer Confidence data, shaping traders’ expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and economic outlook.


Price Action:
Analyzing EUR/USD price action on the H4 chart reveals a clear bearish trend, underpinned by a long-term descending red trend line. The price is struggling to surpass the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating significant bearish pressure. Despite the current green candle suggesting minor bullish momentum, the overall market sentiment remains bearish, reinforced by sustained price action below major moving averages.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA): The short-term blue 9 MA has crossed below the long-term orange 21 MA, clearly signaling bearish sentiment. Both averages are sloping downward, reinforcing the negative momentum in the pair, highlighting sellers' dominance in the short-to-medium term.
Parabolic SAR: Currently positioned above the candles with parameters of 0.05/0.2, the Parabolic SAR dots confirm continued bearish momentum, providing strong technical validation for potential further downward movement.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains in negative territory, with both MACD and signal lines below the zero level, underscoring ongoing bearish momentum despite recent minor bullish fluctuations.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) 28: The RSI indicator at 38.66 reflects bearish market sentiment, though it's not yet oversold, suggesting there remains additional downside potential before buyers may step in more decisively.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support appears firm near the current 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, approximately at 1.1513, which has halted further bearish moves.
Resistance: Key resistance lies near the dynamic descending trendline, approximately around 1.1580, closely aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EUR-USD remains predominantly bearish on the H4 chart, supported by multiple technical indicators including moving averages, Parabolic SAR, MACD, and RSI. Traders should exercise caution and closely monitor the upcoming speeches from the ECB and Fed, as they hold the potential to significantly shift market dynamics and alter the current bearish trajectory. Due diligence and careful risk management are advised given today's high-impact news environment.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.04.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.05.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The NZDUSD currency pair is influenced today by several key macroeconomic events from both New Zealand and the United States. On the New Zealand side, upcoming reports from Statistics New Zealand on employment change, unemployment rate, and private sector labor costs—alongside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Financial Stability Report press conference with Governor Christian Hawkesby—are expected to bring notable market volatility. Traders will watch for any hawkish tone from the RBNZ that might strengthen the NZD, especially if employment data reveals job growth or stable labor costs. For the USD, focus turns to the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories. Strong labor and services data from the US could further bolster the dollar, maintaining pressure on the NZDUSD pair.


Price Action:
The NZDUSD pair on the H4 chart continues to trade within a well-defined bearish descending channel, showing consistent lower highs and lower lows. The candles have been moving along the channel with several breakout failures from both the upper and lower bands, confirming the prevailing downtrend. Given the recent sharp descent in price, the pair has now approached the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting the possibility of a minor corrective rebound before resuming its downward movement. However, a confirmed breakout below this lower band could signal further bearish extension, especially if US economic data outperforms expectations.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The dots are currently positioned above the candles, confirming ongoing bearish momentum. This alignment indicates that sellers remain dominant in the market, and the trend could persist unless a reversal signal occurs with dots flipping below the price.
RSI (28): The Relative Strength Index reads 30.98, hovering near the oversold territory. This suggests that the pair is approaching an area where buying interest could emerge, signaling a potential short-term correction or consolidation phase before the next directional move.
Stochastic (5,3,3): The Stochastic oscillator shows values of 2.90 (K) and 3.26 (D), both deep in oversold territory. This indicates extreme selling pressure, and although the downtrend remains strong, a technical rebound might occur soon if the indicator crosses upward, hinting at temporary bullish correction.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest support level lies around 0.5630, aligning with the lower boundary of the descending channel and a recent swing low.
Resistance: The initial resistance is seen near 0.5740, coinciding with the upper band of the bearish channel and previous consolidation highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZDUSD H4 technical analysis suggests that the pair remains entrenched in a strong bearish trend, with price action confined within a downward channel. Although both RSI and Stochastic indicate oversold conditions, the Parabolic SAR supports continued bearish sentiment. Traders should watch for corrective pullbacks toward resistance levels, which may offer renewed selling opportunities if the overall bearish channel structure holds. From a fundamental perspective, upcoming New Zealand labor data and the RBNZ Governor’s remarks could inject volatility, while stronger-than-expected US employment and PMI data may further weigh on the NZD.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.05.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.06.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD currency pair continues to reflect ongoing market uncertainty as key economic events unfold today. For the USD, traders should closely monitor the Challenger Job Cut Announcements and the EIA Natural Gas Stocks data, as these reports can influence short-term volatility in the market. Additionally, speeches from prominent FOMC members, including Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr and President John Williams, could inject significant volatility into USD trading, especially if their remarks imply potential shifts in monetary policy. On the GBP side, today's release of the Construction PMI and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Report, along with Governor Andrew Bailey's press conference, may significantly impact market sentiment and the GBP’s valuation.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD H4 chart analysis highlights a distinct bearish channel, confirming strong downward momentum. Recently, price action has sharply breached the lower boundary of this bearish channel, indicating an aggressive selling pressure. While a brief corrective phase is expected given the oversold conditions, current price action strongly suggests bears are in control, forecasting a potential continuation of the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Average (100): Current candles are positioned significantly below the 100-period moving average, suggesting a strong bearish sentiment. However, the distance from the average is substantial, indicating that a corrective movement towards the moving average could occur in the short term.
RSI (28): The RSI stands at 34.79, reflecting oversold conditions and indicating potential exhaustion of the bearish momentum. Traders should remain alert for a possible bullish divergence or correction from current levels.
Williams %R: The Williams %R indicator is currently at -71.74, also denoting oversold conditions. This reinforces the possibility of a corrective rally but maintains the bearish sentiment overall as long as it remains below -50.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is observed near the recent lows around 1.3020, a critical level for the bears to maintain momentum.
Resistance: Resistance is identified at 1.3150, coinciding with the lower boundary of the previously broken bearish channel, now serving as dynamic resistance.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD H4 technical analysis suggests continued bearish momentum, supported by price action and key technical indicators including the Moving Average, RSI, and Williams %R. However, oversold conditions on these indicators imply a potential short-term correction or consolidation phase. Traders must stay vigilant due to significant fundamental events today, notably the central bank communications from both the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, which could substantially alter current market dynamics.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.06.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, USD will likely face notable volatility as Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, Philadelphia President Anna Paulson, St. Louis President Alberto Musalem, New York President John Williams, and Governor Philip Jefferson, are set to speak. Hawkish commentary from these FOMC members could strengthen the USD by signaling tighter monetary policy. Concurrently, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is also expected to experience volatility due to employment data and unemployment rates from Statistics Canada, which directly influences the economic outlook for Canada, potentially impacting CAD significantly.


Price Action:
USD/CAD H4 price action analysis illustrates a bullish trend, correcting the bearish momentum faced earlier in 2025. The pair currently trades in the upper half of the regression channel, demonstrating continued upward strength. The short MA (9, blue) recently crossed above the longer MA (21, orange), confirming bullish momentum. Recent candles are supported by Parabolic SAR dots appearing beneath the price action, further validating the bullish scenario.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA9 & MA21): The short-term MA9 (blue) has recently crossed above the long-term MA21 (orange), signaling a strong bullish entry indication. The price continues to trade comfortably above both MAs, providing confidence in the current bullish outlook.
Parabolic SAR: The last three dots from the Parabolic SAR indicator are located beneath the candles, touching the long-term MA. This alignment confirms bullish momentum, suggesting ongoing upward potential in the USD CAD currency pair.
Average True Range (ATR): The ATR (14) currently stands at 0.00172, indicating relatively moderate volatility. This implies that significant price movements may still occur, but drastic swings are less likely in the immediate term, aiding traders in managing their stop-loss and take-profit strategies.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate psychological support is identified at the 1.40500 level, with subsequent key supports at 1.40000 and deeper at 1.39000.
Resistance: The initial resistance level is at 1.41400, functioning as a significant psychological and technical barrier.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The technical analysis for the USD-CAD H4 chart maintains a bullish bias, supported by MAs and Parabolic SAR. However, today's key speeches from FOMC members and employment data from Canada introduce potential volatility. Traders should remain cautious and consider tightening their risk management approaches in response to fundamental news.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.07.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.10.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair remains under moderate pressure as traders focus on upcoming economic remarks from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who is expected to discuss Australia’s economic outlook at the UBS Australasia Conference. Markets will closely monitor his tone for any hawkish signals hinting at future rate hikes, which could strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) gains support from upbeat domestic sentiment, reinforced by the Cleveland Fed’s inflation expectations survey and recent optimistic statements from the US President regarding strong economic performance, record investments, and a potential $2000 citizen dividend. Together, these developments suggest heightened volatility in the AUD/USD pair today, with fundamental forces pulling in opposite directions — RBA commentary possibly boosting the AUD, while strong USD rhetoric could cap gains.


Price Action:
In the AUDUSD H4 chart, the price has moved in a descending trend, forming lower highs since early September. However, after touching the ascending green support line, the pair has shown some bullish recovery with a series of small green candles. The market currently trades around 0.6493, approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting potential short-term resistance ahead. The structure indicates that while buyers are attempting to reclaim control, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with sellers still dominant unless a breakout above the nearby resistance occurs.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (0.05, 0.2): The Parabolic SAR dots are currently positioned above the candles, indicating that the bearish trend remains intact. However, the latest candles showing slight bullish momentum hint that a reversal could form if the SAR dots flip below the price. Until that confirmation occurs, traders should treat the current upward movement as a corrective phase within the broader downtrend.
Moving Averages (MA9 and MA21): The short-term blue MA (9) remains below the long-term orange MA (21), maintaining a bearish crossover. Nonetheless, the short MA line is curving upward, suggesting that short-term momentum is improving. A confirmed crossover above the long MA could signal a potential trend reversal, but as of now, the trend bias remains bearish to neutral.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram shows slightly diminishing bearish momentum, and the MACD line is curving closer to the signal line, indicating possible early signs of a bullish crossover. However, until that crossover is confirmed, the underlying momentum still favors the bears, with limited upside potential in the short term.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The first strong support is positioned around 0.6440, aligned with the green ascending trendline, and deeper support can be found near 0.6415, the recent swing low.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is near the 0.6500 psychological level, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6514, and stronger resistance around 0.6570–0.6600, where the 50% retracement and red descending trendline intersect.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD H4 technical analysis suggests a short-term recovery phase within a broader bearish trend. Despite minor bullish attempts supported by price action and the MACD’s flattening momentum, the prevailing market structure and the Parabolic SAR remain bearish. Traders should closely monitor 0.6500–0.6514 for rejection or breakout signals, as this region holds key importance for short-term direction. Fundamentally, both RBA and US developments today may induce heightened volatility and directional spikes. Caution is advised around the news events, with short-term traders potentially favoring range-bound strategies until a decisive breakout occurs.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.10.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.11.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's fundamental outlook for EUR/GBP includes critical economic news impacting both currencies. The British Pound (GBP) faces potential volatility from upcoming data releases, including British Retail Consortium (BRC) same-store sales, unemployment claims, average earnings including bonuses, and the ILO unemployment rate. Any positive data, surpassing forecasts, could strengthen GBP significantly. Moreover, external Bank of England (BOE) MPC member Megan Greene's speech at the UBS European Conference will be closely observed for hawkish monetary policy signals. Conversely, the Euro (EUR) could experience irregular volatility due to lower liquidity with French banks closed for Armistice Day, alongside the ZEW economic sentiment releases from Germany and the Eurozone, which could influence EUR sentiment notably.


Price Action:
EUR-GBP pair analysis in the H4 timeframe currently shows the price trending downward from the Fibonacci retracement level of 78.6 towards the 61.8 level. Recent price action has printed several consecutive red candles indicating bearish pressure, further confirmed by a crossover of the shorter MA (9 periods) below the longer MA (21 periods). The parabolic SAR indicator dots have moved above the candles, highlighting the ongoing bearish momentum in price action.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages: The short-term moving average (9-period MA) crossing below the longer-term moving average (21-period MA) signals a bearish crossover, indicating sellers' dominance in the EURGBP market.
Parabolic SAR: The indicator dots positioned above the current price candles confirm the bearish trend, suggesting a continuation of downward price action on the H4 timeframe.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD (12,26,9) indicator at 0.000529 and -0.000143 shows decreasing bullish momentum with a possible bearish crossover imminent, supporting further declines.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is seen at the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8, recently confirmed as robust support in the EURGBP market.
Resistance: Immediate resistance remains at the Fibonacci retracement level of 78.6, acting previously as both resistance and support over the past two weeks.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURGBP pair technical analysis and fundamental daily forecast indicate a prevailing bearish momentum supported by moving average crossover, MACD signals, and Parabolic SAR positioning. Traders should closely monitor GBP economic releases today for potential volatility spikes, particularly considering the BOE member speech that could influence price action significantly. Given the lower liquidity in EUR due to the French bank holiday, heightened caution is advised.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.11.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.12.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD currency pair will likely experience increased volatility today due to key economic releases and significant central bank speeches. For EUR, traders will closely observe the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and Industrial Output data, each potentially influencing market expectations of future inflation and economic health. Additionally, outcomes from the Eurogroup meetings and the Bundesbank's Bund Auction could further impact the EUR. On the USD side, Federal Reserve speakers Michael Barr, John Williams, Anna Paulson, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, and Stephen Miran are expected to deliver insights into the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy, potentially causing substantial shifts in market sentiment.


Price Action:
EURUSD price action on the H4 timeframe indicates a shift from a prolonged bullish trend into a consistent bearish channel. Recent price behavior highlights a breakout above this bearish channel; however, current candles suggest a potential bearish re-entry. The Fibonacci expansion indicates a possible next lower low at the 61.8 level. Price action signals traders should anticipate possible retesting around the channel's mid-line as a key short-term target.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (28): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54.72, indicating moderate market strength. The current RSI value suggests that although buyers recently gained control, momentum is not significantly strong, leaving room for bearish pressure to resume.
Stochastic (6,3,3): Currently at 67.23 and 77.19, the Stochastic indicator suggests the market is nearing overbought territory but is not yet extreme. Traders should watch for a potential bearish crossover, which could confirm downward momentum and initiate selling pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for EURUSD stands around the recent low at 1.1520, aligned closely with previous price consolidation areas.
Resistance: The first major resistance level is at 1.1625, corresponding to the recent high and channel breakout point.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EURUSD analysis on the H4 chart reflects current bearish bias with notable caution due to recent breakout signals and fundamental data releases. Technical indicators like RSI and Stochastic support the scenario of cautious bearish momentum returning to the market. Traders should closely monitor today's significant economic releases and Federal Reserve speeches, which can trigger notable volatility and shifts in EURUSD price dynamics.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.12.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.13.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's GBPUSD analysis takes into account crucial economic events for both currencies. For GBP, significant indicators including RICS House Price Balance and GDP data from the Office for National Statistics will influence market sentiment. Positive results, exceeding forecasts, will likely bolster the British Pound, reflecting an improvement in economic health. Conversely, the USD is set to experience volatility with speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Susan Collins and Mary Daly, whose insights on monetary policy and economic outlook will significantly impact USD strength.


Price Action:
The GBPUSD pair on the H4 chart is entrenched in a bearish trend, punctuated by several short-term bullish corrections. Price action recently completed a corrective upswing, encountering resistance from the Ichimoku Cloud. The Fibonacci expansion clearly suggests potential bearish continuation with an immediate target at the 23.6% level. A breach of this level could open the path towards deeper bearish targets.


Key Technical Indicators:
William's %R: The William's %R indicator currently stands at -65.73, signaling a neutral-to-bearish momentum. The indicator remains far from oversold territory, leaving room for further downward pressure in GBPUSD prices on the H4 timeframe.
Stochastic: Stochastic values of 64.04 and 47.25 indicate mild bullish momentum, yet the proximity to a potential crossover suggests a bearish reversal may soon occur. Traders should closely watch for signals of a bearish crossover to confirm downward pressure.
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku indicator shows GBPUSD prices are trading within the cloud region (1.31314, 1.31326, 1.31142, 1.31175), highlighting indecision in the market. However, given the overall bearish bias and the position beneath the cloud resistance, the price action strongly favors bearish continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is identified at the Fibonacci expansion level 23.6, around 1.3090.
Resistance: Key resistance is currently found at the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud around 1.3132, with stronger resistance at previous highs near 1.3195.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The H4 GBPUSD analysis illustrates continued bearish dominance, reinforced by the technical indicators and recent corrective price action. Traders should monitor the upcoming GBP and USD economic releases, particularly GDP and Federal Reserve speeches, for volatility triggers. Given the bearish setup, attention should be paid to the Fibonacci expansion level at 23.6% as a critical support. A confirmed breach may extend bearish momentum significantly lower.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.13.2025