ForexTechnical Analysis

[FXGLORY]

EUR/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.30.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD currency pair reflects market dynamics between the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, notable volatility is expected due to key economic data and speeches impacting both currencies. For the USD, significant events include speeches from FOMC members Mary Daly, Lorie Logan, and Raphael Bostic, along with critical economic releases like Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. For EUR, traders will closely monitor German and Eurozone CPI data and Retail Sales reports, which are essential indicators influencing monetary policy and inflation expectations.


Price Action:
EUR-USD price action analysis on the H4 timeframe shows bullish momentum. Recently, the EURUSD broke and successfully retested a crucial resistance level, now acting as support, signaling bullish continuation potential. Currently, the price is heading towards the next resistance level at 1.14052. If this resistance is breached convincingly, the price action may target the upper resistance trend line, enhancing bullish sentiment further.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility with the price currently trading near the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum. Continued trading near the upper band suggests potential upward continuation but also calls for vigilance for potential short-term corrections.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator is below the price bars, confirming the bullish trend. It indicates continued bullish sentiment until the dots reverse position above the price.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator is at 58.22, suggesting moderate bullish momentum without being in the overbought territory. There is room for further upside movement, supporting a potential rise toward resistance.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD histogram is positive and recently crossed above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. This indicator suggests increased buying pressure, reinforcing bullish sentiment in the short term.
Awesome Oscillator: The Awesome Oscillator has recently shifted to a small positive value, highlighting a bullish reversal from previous bearish momentum. The oscillator supports current bullish price action, though continued monitoring is essential for confirmation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.11849, which aligns with the recently retested significant support.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.14052, which coincides with key horizontal resistance and recent price action highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD H4 analysis indicates a bullish bias supported by technical indicators and confirmed by recent price action. Traders should monitor closely upcoming US and EU economic data and speeches, which could significantly affect volatility and the EURUSD pair’s trajectory. A break above 1.14052 may trigger further bullish momentum, aiming towards the upper resistance trend line. Traders should manage risk carefully due to potential volatility from today's news events.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.30.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

BTCUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.02.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the USD is expected to experience significant volatility with multiple critical economic events and speeches. Federal Reserve speakers including Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, and Lorie Logan are scheduled, potentially influencing USD through monetary policy hints. Additionally, key reports like the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices Paid Index will further affect the dollar's strength. For Bitcoin (BTC), the absence of specific events means it will largely follow technical cues and market sentiment impacted indirectly by USD movements.


Price Action:
BTC/USD price action analysis on the H4 timeframe shows a clear correction from its recent All-Time High (ATH). After failing at the first support level, BTC found support near the 104347 level, indicated by two recent bullish candles. Despite this support, BTCUSD remains vulnerable to further downside, with potential tests at 102830 and subsequently 98437. The observable divergence between price and oscillators highlights potential weakening in the current bullish momentum, warranting caution.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands have widened, reflecting increased volatility in BTC-USD. Price recently touched the lower band, signaling a possible short-term reversal or pause in the bearish correction.
Parabolic SAR: The indicator is bearish, with dots positioned above the current price candles, signifying a dominant bearish momentum in BTCUSD. Traders should monitor for a shift of dots below candles for potential bullish signals.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI at 42.22 is in neutral territory but leaning bearish, suggesting potential further downside in BTCUSD, although not yet oversold, leaving room for additional price declines.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows decreasing bearish momentum, with bars shortening, indicating a possible weakening in selling pressure. Traders should watch for a bullish crossover as a reversal signal.
Stochastic Oscillator: Currently at 35.37, the Stochastic Oscillator indicates bearishness, not yet oversold, suggesting possible continuation downward before any meaningful bullish reversal occurs.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support at 104347, further downside supports at 102830 and crucial support at 98437.
Resistance: Immediate resistance at 105410, followed by 108530, with stronger resistance around 109308.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The BTC-USD pair on the H4 timeframe indicates continued bearish pressure amid recent correction dynamics from its ATH. Although technical indicators like MACD and RSI suggest weakening bearish momentum, key supports remain critical to watch closely. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility driven by today's extensive USD economic news and Federal Reserve speeches. Caution is advised due to possible sudden market shifts influenced by macroeconomic developments.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.02.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USD/JPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's USD-JPY currency pair will be influenced by significant economic events impacting both USD and JPY. The upcoming U.S. JOLTS Job Openings and Manufacturing Orders data can introduce volatility due to their implications for employment trends and manufacturing activity, respectively. Additionally, multiple speeches by Federal Reserve officials today may further influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy. Concurrently, JPY traders will closely monitor BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks for potential shifts in Japan's monetary policy, impacting the Yen significantly.


Price Action:
Analyzing the USDJPY H4 chart reveals that the pair has approached its ascending support line, indicating a crucial test of price stability. If the price obtains support at the current level, it could likely initiate another upward move, aiming to retest the daily resistance line previously breached. The weakened downtrend observed recently could signal the potential initiation of a bullish reversal upon breaking this key resistance.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is positioned below the Ichimoku cloud, which indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment. However, the narrowing span of the cloud suggests possible trend exhaustion, with potential for bullish momentum if price moves upwards through the cloud.
MACD: MACD is below the signal line and in negative territory, highlighting current bearish momentum. Nevertheless, decreasing histogram bars suggest weakening bearish momentum, potentially signaling a bullish divergence soon.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator remains above the price, underscoring a bearish bias. However, its proximity to price action indicates a potential switch soon if bullish pressure emerges.
%R (Williams %R): The %R indicator at -92.61 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting the price could soon experience a corrective rally or upward momentum.
Volume: Recent volume bars demonstrate relatively stable volume levels without significant spikes. A notable volume increase coinciding with bullish price action would strongly support a trend reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is around the 142.650 level, aligning with the ascending trendline visible on the H4 chart.
Resistance: The key resistance is positioned near the 144.250 level, aligning with the daily resistance line and previous high points.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY analysis on the H4 timeframe shows the pair at a crucial support level with indications of weakening bearish momentum. Technical indicators such as Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and Williams %R point toward a potential reversal scenario. Traders should remain vigilant to upcoming economic data releases and central bank speeches today, as these events could introduce volatility and alter market sentiment significantly. Always ensure risk management protocols are in place.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.03.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.04.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the AUDUSD pair is set for a dynamic trading session amid mixed economic data and key events. Early in the Asian session, Australia's GDP q/q figure is released, showing a modest 0.4% growth against an expected 0.6%, potentially weighing on the AUD. Meanwhile, the USD faces several critical reports and speeches that could drive volatility, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which came in stronger than forecast at 111K versus 62K, possibly boosting the greenback. FOMC members Bostic and Cook are also scheduled to speak, with market participants watching closely for any monetary policy signals. Later in the day, the USD Final Services PMI held steady at 52.3, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.0, above expectations, and Crude Oil Inventories showed a slight drawdown. The release of the Fed’s Beige Book in the evening will provide further insights into economic conditions, keeping USD traders alert. Overall, AUDUSD will likely react to a blend of Australian growth data and US employment and service sector reports.


Price Action:
AUD/USD price action analysis on the H4 timeframe reveals a prolonged period of sideways consolidation between the resistance at approximately 0.65142 and support near 0.64035. The pair has tested these levels multiple times, showing indecision in the market. The Ichimoku Cloud indicates a mixed sentiment with price hovering around the Kijun-Sen (blue line) and Tenkan-Sen (red line), while the cloud itself is relatively flat, confirming the sideways trend. The MACD histogram shows minimal momentum with a close-to-zero reading, reflecting the lack of strong directional bias. A decisive break above the 0.65142 resistance could trigger a bullish move targeting the next resistance at 0.65366, whereas failure to break higher might see the pair retesting support levels around 0.64035 and possibly 0.63558.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud shows a flat and narrow formation, indicating consolidation and indecision in the AUD/USD market. The price is hovering around the Tenkan-Sen (red line) and Kijun-Sen (blue line), suggesting no clear trend direction. The cloud ahead is thin and slightly bullish, hinting at potential for a breakout but with cautious momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is close to the zero line with small bars, reflecting very weak momentum and a lack of strong directional bias. The MACD line and signal line are nearly converged, indicating the market is in a neutral state, and traders should watch for a clear crossover to signal a potential trend shift.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support at 0.64035, with further downside support levels at 0.63558 and a crucial support zone near 0.63300.
Resistance: Immediate resistance at 0.65142, followed by a higher resistance level at 0.65366.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair is poised for a cautious trading session influenced by mixed Australian GDP data and stronger-than-expected US employment figures, alongside key speeches and reports that could sway market sentiment. Technically, the pair remains in a consolidation phase with limited momentum, as reflected by the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicators, signaling indecision and a lack of clear direction. Traders should watch closely for a breakout above the 0.65142 resistance to confirm a bullish shift, or a breakdown below 0.64035 support that could open the way for further declines. Overall, the interplay of fundamental catalysts and technical consolidation suggests that volatility may increase, but clear directional cues are yet to emerge.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.04.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EUR/GBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.05.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR-GBP currency pair is impacted by a series of economic releases and central bank statements. For the Euro (EUR), there are several key reports due today, including industrial orders and retail sales data, which can provide insight into economic activity and consumer spending within the Eurozone. Positive data could strengthen the EUR against the GBP. On the other hand, the GBP may face volatility with key figures such as BOE members scheduled to speak, including Megan Greene and Sarah Breeden, both of whom may drop hints regarding future monetary policies. These events are crucial as they provide insights into potential rate changes or economic outlooks, impacting the value of the British Pound.


Price Action:
The EURGBP pair has recently shown signs of potential bullish reversal after breaking the downward trend line. The price action has formed a higher low, reinforcing the possibility of an uptrend beginning. The pair is currently testing a significant resistance zone, marked by daily resistance levels. The reaction to this level will be pivotal, and if the price manages to break through, further upside potential exists towards the resistance line. The divergence between recent lows also adds to the credibility of this analysis, suggesting that the momentum is shifting in favor of the bulls.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are relatively tight, signaling that the market may be entering a consolidation phase before a potential breakout. The price action has recently moved within the upper half of the bands, indicating bullish momentum. A breakout from the upper Bollinger Band could propel the EURGBP to higher levels, especially if the market manages to clear the resistance zone.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR has flipped bullish, with dots now appearing below the price action. This is a clear signal of potential upward momentum. The alignment of the SAR with the higher lows strengthens the case for further upward movement, and traders will be looking for the dots to continue staying below the price, confirming the bullish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 53.31, indicating neutral conditions. It is not in the overbought or oversold zones, suggesting that there is still room for price movement in either direction. A rise in RSI above 60 could further confirm bullish continuation, while a dip below 30 might indicate a deeper retracement or a reversal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is slightly above the signal line, indicating positive momentum. However, the histogram is very close to zero, signaling that bullish momentum might be weakening. A widening gap between the MACD line and the signal line would confirm stronger upward momentum. Traders should watch for a potential bullish crossover in the near term for confirmation of continued strength.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at 0.83400, which aligns with recent price action and the lower boundary of the trend. A break below this level would suggest further downside potential.
Resistance: The key resistance level is found around 0.84350, which has been a persistent barrier. This level coincides with both a recent high and the daily resistance, making it a crucial area to watch for any breakout or rejection.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/GBP pair is poised for a potential uptrend, with key indicators such as the Parabolic SAR, Bollinger Bands, and price action suggesting bullish momentum. A successful breakout above the resistance at 0.84350 could lead to a test of higher levels. However, traders should be mindful of the neutral RSI and the MACD histogram's lack of significant momentum, which implies caution. Upcoming economic events for both the Eurozone and the UK, including retail sales and central bank speeches, could introduce volatility, influencing short-term price movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.05.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USD/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.06.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD-CAD pair is sensitive today due to several significant news releases. USD traders are attentive to the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Employment Cost Index, and Consumer Credit data, critical indicators affecting inflation and employment health. Positive labor market figures and increased consumer credit could strengthen the USD, potentially pushing USDCAD upwards. CAD traders are waiting for employment figures from Canada, releasing on July 11, which might keep today's movements influenced by USD dynamics primarily.


Price Action:
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a clear downtrend, recently testing its support level and moving upwards to retest its descending trendline resistance. The price could face significant resistance here; breaking above this trendline would indicate potential initiation of a new upward trend. Traders must remain cautious and await confirmation of a break above the resistance line to establish any bullish position.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The indicator dots are currently above the price, suggesting bearish momentum. Traders should wait for the dots to shift below price levels, signaling a potential reversal towards a bullish bias.
RSI: Currently at 38.51, the RSI indicates a mildly bearish sentiment. However, it's not yet oversold, allowing for potential downward continuation or eventual upward momentum if a reversal is signaled by price action.
MACD: The MACD histogram is slightly negative, indicating current bearish momentum. Traders should monitor closely for a crossover of the MACD line above the signal line to identify a possible bullish reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: Currently at 75.03, showing a potentially overbought condition. This suggests caution, as the price could face downward pressure in the short term unless bullish momentum intensifies significantly to confirm an upward breakout.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is found at 1.3627, a crucial level that recently stopped the price's downward momentum.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands at the descending trendline, currently around 1.3700, which is critical for potential trend reversal confirmation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CAD H4 remains bearish but faces a critical test at its descending trendline resistance. Technical indicators suggest caution, with the potential for a trend reversal pending confirmation. Fundamental news releases today significantly influence USD strength, warranting close monitoring. Traders should wait for clear breakout confirmations before entering positions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.06.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

GOLD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.09.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) is likely to experience volatility today driven by upcoming key economic data from the US Census Bureau regarding Wholesale Inventories. Traders should closely monitor the release, as a lower-than-forecasted result usually strengthens the USD, negatively impacting Gold prices. Conversely, weaker inventory data might spur demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, offering support to bullish scenarios.


Price Action:
Analyzing the GOLD H4 chart, the price recently experienced a correction that broke the immediate ascending trendline with the last two bearish candles. However, the broader bullish sentiment remains strong, potentially signaling a Breakout Failure (BOF). The visible divergence between recent price lows and oscillators strengthens this view, suggesting the possibility of a bullish reversal soon. Should the price continue declining, further downside targets include the subsequent ascending trendline and immediate horizontal support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently positioned above the price candles, suggesting a bearish sentiment short-term. A shift below candles would confirm renewed bullish momentum.
RSI: RSI stands at 36.49, approaching oversold territory. This indicates potential exhaustion of bearish momentum, implying a near-term reversal might occur.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic indicator is approaching oversold levels, further highlighting potential bullish reversal opportunities soon, supported by oscillator-price divergence.
Volume: Recent bearish candles showed moderate volume, indicating sellers are present but not yet dominating strongly, adding caution to bearish continuation expectations.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate key support at approximately 3296.84, followed by a more critical support level around 3269.84, aligning with previous consolidation zones.
Resistance: Significant resistance identified near 3361.84, a recent peak, and beyond that at approximately 3407.84, representing previous highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The H4 technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for GOLD indicates current bearish pressure but highlights robust underlying bullish strength. Traders should cautiously monitor price actions around immediate support zones for potential reversals. Today's wholesale inventories data could be pivotal in defining short-term Gold price direction, emphasizing the importance of attentive risk management strategies.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.09.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.06.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is highly influenced by the economic conditions in both the Eurozone and the United States. The Euro is currently affected by upcoming economic data releases, with the Industrial Output report from Istat scheduled for release on July 10, 2025. A positive result could indicate a stronger euro, boosting market sentiment for EUR. On the US side, the NFIB Small Business Index report is due on July 8, 2025, which could give further insight into the health of the US economy. Traders will closely watch these data points for any signs of strengthening or weakening in the respective currencies.


Price Action:
The EUR-USD is currently experiencing a strong upward movement, following a pullback to the broken support level at 1.11330. This breakout has pushed the price towards its resistance zone near 1.1420, showing that the bullish momentum is intact. The price action is forming an ascending triangle pattern, indicating that a potential breakout above this resistance level could drive the price higher, potentially targeting the last high at around 1.15640. Traders should watch for the breakout confirmation to seize the next move.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR is currently positioned below the price, confirming the bullish trend. The consistent dots beneath the price suggest that the upward momentum could continue, with the SAR providing support at lower levels if the price retraces.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is showing bullish momentum with the MACD line above the signal line, and the histogram remains positive. However, the momentum is starting to show signs of slowing down, as indicated by the decreasing size of the histogram. Traders should remain cautious for a possible slowdown in the bullish trend.
%R (Williams %R): The %R indicator is currently positioned in the neutral zone, showing a value of around -40.19. This suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, which aligns with the ongoing bullish price action without signaling any immediate reversal or exhaustion.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.11330, which aligns with the broken level that previously acted as a strong support. If the price retraces, this level could offer substantial support and lead to further upward movement.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.1420, where the price has recently encountered a strong barrier. A break above this level could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, targeting higher levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD pair is in a strong uptrend, supported by a solid break above the 1.11330 level. The Parabolic SAR and MACD indicators back the bullish move, but traders should watch for any signs of weakening momentum in the MACD histogram. The price action suggests that the pair is in the process of testing resistance at 1.1420, and a breakout above this level could lead to a test of 1.15640. Economic data from both the Eurozone and the US in the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the direction of the EURUSD. Traders should stay vigilant for any shifts in sentiment and be prepared for potential volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.10.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

GBPUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.11.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the GBPUSD pair is poised for a potentially volatile session as both UK and US economic releases influence market sentiment. Early UK data reveals a mixed picture: GDP m/m unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% versus the forecasted 0.2%, while Industrial and Manufacturing Production both declined by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, indicating softness in the UK's economic activity. Construction Output came in slightly below expectations at 0.3%, and the Goods Trade Balance widened to -£20.8B, missing the -£19.9B estimate. However, the Index of Services held steady at 0.7%, offering some stability. On the US side, inflation readings were generally in line or slightly stronger, with Core CPI m/m rising 0.3% (vs. 0.2%) and CPI y/y at 2.5% (vs. 2.3%), reinforcing the case for a cautious Fed. Additionally, Core PPI and PPI m/m both rebounded into positive territory, while Unemployment Claims fell to 242K, better than expected. With inflation pressures persisting in the US and economic signals from the UK turning softer, GBPUSD may face downside pressure, though traders will remain alert to upcoming Fed commentary and broader risk sentiment.


Price Action:
GBP/USD price action analysis on the H4 timeframe signals a potential shift toward bearish momentum following a break below key technical levels. The pair has decisively fallen beneath both its recent ascending trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a weakening bullish structure. The cloud itself has turned bearish, with future cloud projection showing a downward tilt. Price is also trading below both the Tenkan-Sen (red line) and Kijun-Sen (blue line), reinforcing the bearish bias. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has dipped into negative territory with increasing downside bars, suggesting growing bearish momentum and a possible continuation of the downward wave. If the pair sustains below the 1.3470 area, further declines could target support zones near 1.3400 and possibly extend toward 1.3340 in the near term.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud on the GBP/USD H4 chart shows a bearish configuration. The price has broken decisively below the cloud, signaling a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment. Both the Tenkan-Sen (red line) and Kijun-Sen (blue line) are above the current price, reinforcing downward pressure. The cloud ahead is bearish and slightly expanding, indicating growing downside momentum and a potential continuation of the bearish trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram has turned negative with increasing red bars, suggesting strengthening bearish momentum. The MACD line is below the signal line and diverging further, confirming the bearish crossover and trend continuation potential. This setup supports a downside bias for GBP/USD in the near term.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for GBP/USD is seen near the 1.3420 level, which has previously acted as a consolidation base. A break below this could open the door to further downside targets around 1.3360, with a crucial support zone lying near 1.3320.
Resistance: On the upside, initial resistance is located around 1.3515, marked by the flat Kijun-Sen and previous price congestion. If bulls reclaim this level, the next key resistance is near 1.3580, aligning with the recent swing high before the breakdown.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In summary, GBP/USD appears vulnerable to further downside in the near term, driven by a combination of weaker-than-expected UK economic data and firmer US inflation metrics that support a cautious but hawkish Fed outlook. From a technical standpoint, the pair has broken below critical support levels, with bearish signals confirmed by the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicators. As price action remains under pressure and below key moving averages, momentum favors sellers, especially if the 1.3420 level fails to hold. Traders should closely monitor upcoming Fed commentary and broader market sentiment, as any shift in risk appetite or central bank tone could influence short-term direction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.11.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.13.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s fundamental outlook for the USD/CAD pair is influenced by upcoming economic data from both the United States and Canada. For the USD, traders are closely watching the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations data. These indicators are crucial as they reflect consumer confidence and future inflation expectations, both of which heavily influence Federal Reserve policy direction. If actual figures come out higher than forecast, the USD may see a bullish reaction due to increased prospects of tightening monetary policy.
On the Canadian side, Statistics Canada will release data regarding Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Shipments, and Wholesale Trade. These figures serve as early signals of economic strength and inflationary pressure in Canada. If the results are strong, the CAD may benefit from increased investor confidence in the country's economic resilience, putting further downward pressure on the USD-CAD pair.


Price Action:
Analyzing the price action of USD CAD in the H4 chart, the pair continues its consistent bearish trend. The last few candlesticks have been predominantly red, with the latest three confirming strong bearish momentum. The USDCAD price has broken below the short-term rising support trendline and has now reached the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level, which may act as a temporary support zone. Sellers remain in control, with no significant bullish reversal patterns currently in sight. This supports the continuation of the current downtrend, unless a strong reversal signal emerges.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA - Blue 9 & Orange 17): The 9-period MA (blue) has crossed below the 17-period MA (orange), reinforcing a bearish crossover signal on the H4 chart. This alignment confirms the bearish trend continuation, and until a bullish crossover appears, short trades are technically favored in the current environment.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have formed above the candlesticks, indicating downward pressure in the market. This classic trend-following signal further supports bearish momentum and validates ongoing selling interest in USD/CAD.
Volume: Trading volume has increased on the latest bearish candles, with red bars dominating. This surge in volume accompanying price decline signals strong conviction from sellers and further weakens the likelihood of an immediate rebound.
MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is printing negative values, though showing minor flattening. This indicates that bearish momentum remains intact, albeit with a hint of potential slowing. However, no bullish divergence is present, so trend continuation is still likely in the short term.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support lies near the recent 1.3530–1.3550 zone, marked by the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level, which could serve as a short-term bounce area if sellers exhaust themselves.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level appears around the 1.3670–1.3690 zone, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, where price previously struggled to break above.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart analysis reflects a strong bearish setup driven by aligned technical indicators such as the moving averages, parabolic SAR, MACD, and confirming price action. The pair is trading at a significant Fibonacci support level, but without a reversal pattern or divergence, bearish continuation remains likely. From a fundamental perspective, today's US inflation expectations and Canadian manufacturing-related data may trigger volatility and decide whether this support will hold or break. Traders should monitor these economic releases closely and remain cautious of unexpected spikes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.13.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.16.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTCUSD (Bitcoin vs US Dollar) pair may experience increased volatility today due to USD-related macroeconomic data. Specifically, attention is focused on the New York Manufacturing Index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As a forward-looking indicator of economic health, stronger-than-forecast results would support the USD, potentially putting short-term downward pressure on BTC/USD. However, broader crypto sentiment remains influenced by institutional accumulation and anticipation of regulatory developments. With Bitcoin's long-term bullish fundamentals intact—bolstered by growing adoption and inflation hedging—the market reaction to USD strength may be limited or short-lived unless the data shows a strong divergence from expectations.


Price Action:
The BTCUSD H4 chart exhibits ongoing consolidation just above the $100,000 psychological level, with price currently at $105,336. After reaching highs near $111,389, the market has retraced toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level, where it found support on the long-term upward trendline (green). Price action is compressing within this critical confluence zone, suggesting indecision. A series of lower highs indicate minor bearish momentum, but the long-term structure remains bullish unless the trendline support is broken with volume. The candlesticks show diminishing bearish bodies near support, hinting at a possible reversal or breakout above the local resistance area.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (EMA 9 & EMA 17): The Bitcoin price is currently below both the short-term (blue, EMA 9) and long-term (orange, EMA 17) exponential moving averages. The short-term EMA has crossed below the long-term EMA, signaling bearish short-term momentum. However, this crossover occurs close to a major support level, indicating a possible upcoming bounce or reversal if bulls defend the trendline.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the candles, confirming the current bearish sentiment. However, the dots are very close to the candlesticks, suggesting weakening selling pressure and potential for a bullish shift if price closes above the EMAs in the next few sessions.
Volume: Volume has increased slightly near the recent support touch, suggesting accumulation interest at the $100K–$105K zone. No significant spikes indicate panic selling; instead, volume patterns align with a potential base-building process at key support.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram remains below zero, and the MACD line is below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. However, the histogram bars are shortening, implying a reduction in bearish momentum. A bullish crossover may soon occur if the trendline holds and upward momentum builds.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Strong support is established around $100,000, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the long-term upward trendline, creating a critical demand zone for BTC USD in this H4 analysis.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies near $108,387, the recent swing high, with the next major barrier at $111,389, corresponding to the peak and 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD on the H4 chart remains within a long-term bullish trend, currently testing a key support zone around $100,000–$105,000. While short-term indicators like the EMA crossover, MACD, and Parabolic SAR suggest bearish pressure, the proximity to structural support and declining bearish momentum may lead to a bullish reversal. A confirmed close above the EMAs and increased volume could signal a fresh move toward the $108K–$111K resistance zone. Traders should closely monitor today’s USD news release, especially the New York Manufacturing Index, as stronger-than-expected data could bolster the USD and apply pressure to BTC. This BTC-USD H4 chart analysis recommends a cautious approach, waiting for clear price action confirmation before entering new positions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.16.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.26.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair is heavily influenced by economic data from both the UK and the US. For the USD, there are important upcoming economic releases that include GDP data, durable goods orders, and jobless claims, all of which can provide insights into the overall health of the US economy. The GDP release, in particular, is highly significant and is expected to provide a strong impact on market sentiment. On the other hand, GBP’s price movement could be influenced by the Bank of England’s statements on monetary policy, with Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden discussing the competitiveness of UK financial services. Traders are focused on these factors, as hawkish stances from the Bank of England or any stronger-than-expected US data could move the market substantially in the coming hours.


Price Action:
The GBP-USD pair shows a clear uptrend as evidenced by the rising trendline, which has been respected multiple times since the price broke above the 1.34149 level. The retest of this level has seen support each time, with the most recent retest showing a significant rebound higher than previous tests. The price has now advanced towards the upper boundary of this trend channel, suggesting further upside potential. However, if the price reverses, the 1.34149 level would be a critical support to watch. If the trendline continues to hold, GBPUSD could test new highs.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below the price, indicating that the current trend is bullish. This suggests continued upward momentum, with the indicator serving as a trailing stop.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 69.59, nearing the overbought level of 70. This suggests that the price has been in an extended upward move, but the market still has room before hitting overbought conditions. This supports the possibility of further bullish movement, but caution is advised as the RSI is approaching overbought territory.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram shows positive momentum. This indicates that the bullish trend remains intact, but the histogram is starting to show signs of weakening momentum. Traders should watch for potential divergence that could indicate a slowdown in upward pressure.
Standard Deviation: The Standard Deviation indicator shows increasing volatility, with the current value at 0.008901. This suggests that the market is becoming more volatile, and price movements could be more pronounced in the near term.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The most immediate support lies at 1.34149, where the price has repeatedly bounced off in the recent past. This level will be key if the price pulls back.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is seen near the trendline at approximately 1.35810. If the price breaks through this resistance, we could see further bullish movement towards new highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP-USD pair remains in a strong bullish trend, as indicated by the Parabolic SAR and the positive momentum shown by the MACD. However, the RSI suggests that the pair is nearing overbought levels, and the Standard Deviation indicates increased volatility, which could lead to swift price moves. Traders should watch the support level at 1.34149, which could offer a solid entry point in case of a pullback. Any strong fundamental developments, particularly from the US or the Bank of England, could significantly influence the pair’s direction in the coming hours.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.26.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.27.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's USDCAD fundamental analysis will be driven by several key economic releases from both the US and Canada. For the USD, traders are awaiting critical Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, Disposable Personal Income figures, and insights into consumer spending trends. Speeches by Federal Reserve members Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack could significantly affect USD volatility, especially if comments indicate a more hawkish stance toward inflation and labor market conditions. Additionally, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence and inflation expectation releases will be closely watched. On the CAD side, attention will center around the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release from Statistics Canada, providing clarity on economic growth and influencing CAD valuation.


Price Action:
USD/CAD price action on the H4 chart indicates a bearish sentiment in the short term. After experiencing significant downward momentum, decreasing roughly 1050 points over three substantial bearish candles, the last two candles have reversed partially to green, showing potential for a short-term correction or consolidation. The overall bearish trend remains intact as the price trades below the descending trendline, highlighting continued downward pressure.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 17): The short-term MA (blue line, period 9) has crossed below the longer-term MA (orange line, period 17), signaling bearish sentiment. Both moving averages are sloping downward closely together, suggesting a sustained bearish momentum in the near term. Traders should monitor for potential crossovers or divergences for indications of changing market conditions.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator confirms bearish pressure, with the last four dots positioned above the price candles. This placement reinforces the bearish bias. However, the recent shift to green candles suggests cautiousness, and traders should closely observe if dots continue appearing above or start shifting below the candles, potentially indicating a reversal or consolidation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows bearish momentum as the MACD line remains below the signal line and the histogram reflects downward momentum. Nevertheless, traders should be cautious, as the histogram bars' length is decreasing, hinting at potential weakening bearish momentum and a possible short-term reversal.
Williams %R: The %R oscillator currently reads -76.74, showing oversold market conditions. While this typically signals a potential price correction upwards, traders should look for confirmation through additional bullish price action or other technical indicators before entering long positions, given the current bearish overall bias.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is at the 1.3634 level, marking recent lows and aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is around 1.3727, coinciding with recent highs and the descending trendline resistance.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart analysis indicates prevailing bearish momentum supported by technical indicators such as Moving Averages, Parabolic SAR, MACD, and Williams %R. Traders should remain cautious due to potential volatility from significant economic data and central bank speakers, particularly the upcoming US PCE data and Canada's GDP release. Monitoring support at 1.3634 and resistance at 1.3727 will be critical in gauging further directional bias.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.27.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

XAU/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.30.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s USD news events are anticipated to bring volatility to XAUUSD. The Chicago PMI, released by ISM-Chicago, will be closely monitored; a reading above forecasts could strengthen the USD, putting bearish pressure on gold prices. Moreover, speeches by Federal Reserve officials Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee will significantly influence market sentiment. Hawkish comments hinting at future interest rate hikes could further pressure gold, typically negatively correlated with rising interest rates.


Price Action:
XAUUSD price action analysis in the H4 timeframe indicates a clear downward trajectory, having broken two key support lines recently. However, the latest candle formation, a bullish hammer, suggests potential bullish reaction at the third support line. Traders should watch for a possible pullback toward previously broken support levels, now acting as resistance, or monitor signs of a bullish reversal concluding the correction phase.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots remain positioned above the candles, confirming an ongoing bearish trend. However, the recent tightening proximity to price suggests weakening bearish momentum, potentially signaling a reversal or pullback soon.
Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic currently resides near oversold territory, indicating potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Traders should watch for bullish crossovers as signs of possible upward correction or reversal.
MACD: MACD continues below the zero line, indicating a bearish environment. Nevertheless, the decreasing histogram bars suggest the bearish momentum is gradually weakening, hinting at a potential bullish divergence forming.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator, currently at approximately 30.62, is hovering close to oversold levels, suggesting limited room for additional bearish moves. A reversal from this area could provide bullish entry signals.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is observed near 3264.08, corresponding to recent lows and potential demand zone.
Resistance: Initial resistance is marked around 3294.25, aligning with previously broken support levels acting as new resistance.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The XAU-USD H4 technical and fundamental daily chart analysis suggests the potential for a bullish correction or reversal given the oversold technical conditions indicated by RSI and Stochastic. However, upcoming economic events related to USD can introduce volatility, significantly influencing gold’s short-term direction. Traders should cautiously monitor both fundamental developments and price action confirmations around identified support and resistance levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
06.30.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USDJPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.01.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY currency pair is set for significant volatility today as major economic events and speeches by central bank officials are scheduled. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are due to participate in policy discussions at the ECB Forum, providing crucial insights into future monetary policies and potentially triggering sharp market movements. Furthermore, key manufacturing PMI data releases for both the US and Japan will likely influence market sentiment and currency strength, impacting the USDJPY price significantly.


Price Action:
The USD JPY analysis on the H4 timeframe currently reveals a bearish sentiment. Price action has maintained a clear downtrend, touching crucial support at 143.895. The recent three red candles suggest ongoing bearish momentum, though the pair is now at a pivotal level. If support holds firm, price action would need to breach the downward trendline resistance to confirm a bullish reversal. Failure to hold this support may drive the pair towards the lower Bollinger Band.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots remain positioned above the candles, strongly confirming the ongoing bearish momentum in the USD-JPY. Traders should monitor closely for any shift of SAR dots below candles, signaling a potential reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator currently sits at 39.14, indicating a bearish momentum that has not yet reached oversold conditions. This leaves room for further declines before potential bullish pressure emerges.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is negative and has been consistently showing bearish momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, affirming continued selling pressure and cautioning against immediate long positions without clear reversal signals.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator reading is at 33.28, showing a downward trajectory which indicates continued bearish momentum. It has not yet reached oversold territory, suggesting potential for further downside in the near term.
Bollinger Bands: Price is currently hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, which typically serves as dynamic support. The bands are slightly widening, suggesting potential for increased volatility. Should the price rebound from the current level, the mid-band becomes the primary target, whereas a break below could accelerate declines.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is firmly established at 143.895, aligned with recent price lows.
Resistance: The nearest significant resistance is at the descending trendline around the 144.500 level, followed by the Bollinger Band middle line near 144.800.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY pair's H4 chart reflects a bearish trend, supported by technical indicators such as MACD, RSI, Parabolic SAR, and Stochastic Oscillator. Fundamental events, particularly speeches by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and manufacturing PMI releases, can significantly influence price direction today. Traders should watch closely for a confirmed break or rebound from the support line at 143.895 to guide trading decisions. Due to expected high volatility, maintaining strict risk management strategies is strongly recommended.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.01.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.02.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is set for potential volatility today as several key economic events and data releases are scheduled. Early morning figures such as the French Government Budget Balance and Spanish Unemployment Change could influence market sentiment regarding fiscal and employment conditions in the Eurozone. The German 10-year Bond Auction later in the day will provide insights into investor confidence in German debt, impacting the EUR. On the US side, key releases like the Challenger Job Cuts and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will provide clues about the US labor market, potentially influencing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. ECB President Lagarde’s speech in the afternoon will further shape market outlooks on Eurozone monetary policy, adding to the potential for significant movement in the EUR/USD pair.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD on the H4 timeframe is currently experiencing a bullish phase, with the price making consistent higher highs. However, there is a noticeable decrease in the slope of this upward trend, indicating that the bullish momentum is slowing down. The price is approaching resistance near the upper Bollinger Band, which suggests the pair may be nearing overbought conditions. Additionally, the RSI, while still in positive territory, is showing signs of divergence, further suggesting that buying pressure may be waning. If the price manages to break through the current resistance and hold above the upper Bollinger Band, this could signal continued bullish momentum and potential for further gains. On the other hand, failure to maintain this strength could lead to a pullback, testing the middle Bollinger Band or even lower levels. The price action is at a critical point, and the next movement will depend on whether the bullish momentum can be sustained or if a correction is imminent.


Key Technical Indicators:
Williams %R: The Williams %R is currently at -17.31, indicating that the market is in overbought territory but not yet at extreme levels. This suggests that there is still potential for further upward movement before the market reaches overbought conditions, which could signal a reversal if it continues to climb.
Bollinger Bands: The price is trading near the upper Bollinger Band, signaling that the market is in an extended bullish phase. The bands are slightly widening, which suggests increased volatility. If the price continues to test the upper band and maintains this momentum, further gains could follow, with the upper band acting as resistance. However, a pullback to the middle band would act as dynamic support if the price fails to sustain the current momentum.
Volume: Volume bars are showing mixed activity, with green bars indicating buying pressure and red bars suggesting selling. While the overall volume remains moderate, the recent green bars are notable, suggesting that there is still some buying interest. A sustained increase in volume would reinforce the bullish outlook, while decreasing volume may signal a potential slowdown in momentum.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is seen around the 1.08600 level, aligned with recent price lows, providing a key area for potential price rebound.
Resistance: Immediate support is seen around the 1.08600 level, aligned with recent price lows, providing a key area for potential price rebound.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is set for potential volatility due to key economic data releases today, including reports from both the Eurozone and the U.S. Technically, the pair is in a bullish phase but showing signs of slowing momentum as it approaches resistance near the upper Bollinger Band. With the Williams %R and RSI indicating overbought conditions, there is room for further upside, but a pullback could occur if momentum fades. Immediate support is at 1.08600, with resistance around 1.09300, making the next move dependent on whether the bullish trend can be maintained or a correction is imminent.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.02.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.03.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is showing resilience near its all-time high (ATH) amidst heightened macroeconomic attention. Today’s key USD news releases, including Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, could introduce volatility for BTCUSD. If these releases indicate strong economic growth, the USD could strengthen, potentially pressuring BTC in the short term. However, persistent inflation and dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric continue to support long-term bullish sentiment toward crypto assets like Bitcoin. Traders are advised to watch closely as today's U.S. labor data could fuel sudden shifts in risk appetite and BTC price momentum.


Price Action:
BTCUSD has approached the $109,000 level for the second time since recording its ATH at $111,970, suggesting strong bullish pressure but also visible resistance. The BTC/USD pair surged above $108,440, only to stall just before testing ATH again. Multiple long wicks near the resistance area reflect seller activity. However, the bullish structure remains intact with a clear higher low formed near $106,000. The repeated failure to breach the $109,000-$111,970 zone indicates a critical decision area. If bulls break this resistance convincingly, a new ATH may follow; otherwise, a pullback toward the lower support zone may occur.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are currently positioned below the price candles, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend. This aligns with recent upward momentum and supports the possibility of further gains if resistance is broken.
Moving Averages (MA): The short-term MA 9 (blue) has crossed above the longer-term MA 17 (orange), signaling a bullish crossover. Although both moving averages are still below the latest candles, this crossover supports positive momentum. Sustained price above the MAs could signal further upside.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI stands at 61.41, which is bullish but not yet overbought. This suggests room for further upside before BTCUSD hits exhaustion levels. However, failure to push above 70 may indicate weakening bullish pressure near resistance.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line remains above the signal line, and the histogram is slightly positive. This reinforces bullish sentiment, although the gap is narrowing, which could signal a potential slowdown in momentum.
Williams %R: Currently at -16.46, this indicator shows BTCUSD is nearing overbought territory. Although it confirms recent bullishness, it also warns of a possible short-term pullback if buying pressure fades.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The key support zone lies around $106,500 – $107,300, where previous consolidation and moving average support align.
Resistance: Major resistance remains between $109,000 – $111,970, which includes the recent peak and the ATH barrier.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In this H4 BTCUSD technical and fundamental daily analysis, Bitcoin is consolidating just below its ATH after a strong upward move. Price action, combined with bullish signals from MA, Parabolic SAR, RSI, and MACD, supports the bullish outlook—but the cluster of resistance near the ATH demands caution. Today's U.S. labor data could act as a catalyst for a breakout or reversal. Traders should monitor price behavior closely around $109K and adjust positions accordingly. Risk management is essential amid expected USD volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.03.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EUR/GBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.04.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/GBP currency pair represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the British Pound. The pair is influenced by economic data and policy decisions from both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. Today's market activity is expected to be impacted by the release of significant data. For the GBP, the focus will be on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the construction sector, as well as updates from the Bank of England regarding economic conditions and monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected data would likely support the British Pound. On the Eurozone side, industrial orders, production data, and retail sales will provide insight into the economic strength of the region. With both currencies seeing key updates, EURGBP could experience volatility depending on the direction these data points take.


Price Action:
The EUR/GBP chart on the H4 timeframe indicates that the price has been on a bullish trend recently, but it is now facing resistance at higher levels, as indicated in the chart. After the bullish movement, the price has encountered a resistance zone, which has prevented it from moving further upward. The last four Parabolic SAR dots have appeared above the candles, signaling a potential change in trend or consolidation. The short-term moving average (blue line) has crossed above the long-term moving average (orange line), but it seems to be turning downward towards the orange line, which might indicate weakening momentum. Despite this, the last two candles are green and positive, suggesting a possible continuation of upward momentum if the price can hold above key levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted above the price candles, which typically signals a potential reversal or a pause in the current trend. This indicator suggests caution, as the bullish momentum may be weakening, and a shift to a consolidation phase or a bearish trend could be approaching.
Moving Averages (MA): The short-term moving average (blue) has crossed above the long-term moving average (orange), indicating a bullish trend. However, the short-term MA appears to be moving downward towards the long-term MA, suggesting that upward momentum may be slowing. The positioning of these two MAs and the fact that the candles are now below the blue line points to a potential pause or correction in the trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 55.61, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral position suggests that there is still room for the price to move in either direction, and the market is not showing signs of an immediate reversal or exhaustion.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram is positive, showing that there is still some bullish momentum. However, the MACD histogram is starting to lose momentum, which could signal a slowdown in the current bullish trend. Traders should monitor the MACD for any potential bearish crossovers in the near future.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The support level is around 0.8580, as indicated by the price action on the chart. If the price drops to this level, it could find support and potentially bounce higher.
Resistance: The resistance level is near 0.8650, which has been an area where the price has faced difficulty breaking above. A failure to breach this resistance could lead to a pullback or consolidation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/GBP chart shows a bullish trend, but recent price action suggests that the pair may be struggling to break through key resistance levels. While the Parabolic SAR and moving averages indicate a potential slowdown in the bullish momentum, the green candles suggest that there is still a chance for further upward movement if key support levels hold. However, traders should be cautious due to the weakening momentum in the MACD and the possible resistance at higher levels. With the upcoming news releases from both the UK and the Eurozone, volatility may increase, and it’s crucial to watch the data for any surprises that could shift market sentiment.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.04.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EUR/CHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EUR-CHF currency pair faces a mix of scheduled economic releases and central bank insights that could influence intraday price action. On the Euro side, traders are watching key data such as German Industrial Output and Retail Sales, which are leading indicators of economic health. Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel is set to speak, and any hawkish tone from him may lift the Euro. Meanwhile, for the Swiss Franc, the SNB’s release on foreign currency reserves could impact CHF strength depending on whether their holdings imply defensive measures against EURCHF depreciation. Broader BRICS geopolitical developments may also influence both currencies. Overall, sentiment remains cautious with potential volatility.


Price Action:
The bigger picture on the EUR-CHF H4 chart shows prolonged sideways movement, with a noticeable pattern of long-wicked candles, frequent doji, and pin bars—clear signs of market indecision and unstable momentum. Recently, the pair broke above a short-term descending trendline, suggesting temporary bullish pressure. However, two major resistance barriers lie ahead: a horizontal resistance zone and the flat Senkou Span B from the Ichimoku Cloud, both known for rejecting price action. Despite the breakout, this remains a challenging chart to trade, with no clear directional commitment.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is still below the cloud, indicating a bearish bias. The flat Senkou Span B acts as key resistance, while flat Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen suggest range-bound conditions. A break above the cloud is needed for a bullish shift.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI at 55.30 shows slight bullish momentum. It's above the neutral level but not overbought, leaving room for further gains if resistance levels are cleared.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD hints at a potential bullish crossover. The histogram shows fading bearish pressure, but the signal is weak and needs confirmation from price movement.
Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic lines are in a bullish crossover near 60, indicating upward momentum. However, it remains neutral overall, with a risk of reversal near resistance.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The ascending trendline around 0.9330 offers immediate support, backed by recent higher lows and price bounce activity.
Resistance: Strong resistance is seen at 0.9360–0.9370, marked by previous horizontal highs and the flat Senkou Span B, which often halts upward movement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/CHF pair on the H4 timeframe reflects a delicate balance between short-term bullish attempts and broader bearish pressure, consistent with a classic consolidation phase. Technical indicators hint at a possible bullish continuation if resistance levels break, but no solid confirmation is in place yet. Fundamental catalysts from both EUR and CHF today may drive the next significant move. Traders are advised to stay cautious and wait for a confirmed breakout or rejection from current resistance zones before entering a position.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.07.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.08.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair faces potential volatility driven by significant economic data releases. The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index, scheduled to be released soon, is a crucial indicator of Australia's economic health. Positive results will likely strengthen the Australian Dollar. Simultaneously, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy decisions will significantly influence AUD sentiment. On the USD front, the NFIB Small Business Index and consumer credit data releases could create volatility, impacting the US Dollar's strength and, consequently, the AUDUSD exchange rate.


Price Action:
AUD-USD H4 timeframe currently illustrates an overall uptrend, recently disrupted by a break below the ascending channel's lower boundary. The price action now tests a crucial support zone, exhibiting several doji candles that highlight market indecision and potential reversal signals. Should this support hold, we could anticipate a price retracement back to retest the broken channel boundary. Failure to sustain current levels may push AUDUSD towards the lower marked support zone.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is currently at 32.75, near the oversold boundary of 30, indicating potential bullish correction in the near term. Traders should monitor closely for RSI recovery to signal a price rebound.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD histogram is showing increasing bearish momentum, with MACD line trending below the signal line, suggesting prevailing bearish pressure. A narrowing histogram in subsequent candles would be necessary to confirm any bullish reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator currently at 10.34, clearly in oversold territory, hints at an imminent upward price reversal. Traders should await a bullish crossover as a confirmation signal for entering long positions.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator is positioned above the current price candles, signaling continued bearish sentiment. Traders should watch for any shifts in the Parabolic SAR positioning below the price as a bullish reversal confirmation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate key support zone is around the 0.6480 level, acting as the critical pivot for near-term price action.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is around 0.6550, aligning with the recently broken ascending channel's lower boundary.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD USD H4 chart analysis suggests cautious bullish anticipation if current support holds, supported by oversold RSI and Stochastic indicators. Traders must closely monitor the NAB Business Confidence release and RBA's statements for fundamental cues. The presence of doji candles at support underscores the potential for price reversal, while clear bearish MACD momentum calls for confirmation before establishing bullish positions. Investors should exercise caution given the upcoming USD economic releases that could significantly influence market dynamics.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.08.2025