EUR/USD near 1-year lows going into FOMC, is this a Fed story or a Middle East story?

benwhitecole

Trader
Jul 22, 2026
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noticed EUR/USD dipped to like 1.1366 yesterday, lowest since june, GBP/USD pulled back to low 1.33s too. everyone's talking FOMC positioning but feels like the middle east stuff (iran/us tensions, oil spike) is doing just as much here honestly, dollar getting bid as safe haven on top of whatever rate stuff is priced in

anyone actually trading EUR/USD today or just waiting til after the 6pm GMT decision + presser to see what actually wins out