EUR/USD Analysis

Traders-Live

Active Trader
Jul 22, 2010
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37
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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2732

Key G7 support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2780/2800, 1.2720

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.2980 – 1.3050

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Little has changed since last week, as the Euro has been in a broad sideways range for much of the last week. Support levels are listed above and we’ll continue to

look to buy the Euro into dips, with an unchanged strategy. There is a word of caution: It is very possible that we’ll retrace and correct back to the weekly

downward trend line, which now acts as a support. Today, this lies at roughly 1.2520, which is below the weekly reversal level. As bullish momentum has slowed

somewhat and the danger of a consolidation/correction is increasing, we’ll allow for some careful trend and counter-trend trading if the opportunity arises. Watch

for potential topping at 1.2980/1.3000

Update: Very little change, as the euro popped its head up briefly above 1.3000, and then back to the range. We’ll have to wait and see if we get another rally from

here. The strategy remains unchanged, apart from small adjustments to the support levels above. Probably best to focus on trading in the direction of the bullish

trend today.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as far as 1.2630. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

28July2010.jpg
 

Traders-Live

Active Trader
Jul 22, 2010
33
0
37
South Africa
www.traders-live.com
EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2732

Key G7 support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2780/2800, 1.2720

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.2980 – 1.3050

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Little has changed since last week, as the Euro has been in a broad sideways range for much of the last week. Support levels are listed above and we’ll continue to look to buy the Euro into dips, with an unchanged strategy. There is a word of caution: It is very possible that we’ll retrace and correct back to the weekly downward trend line, which now acts as a support. Today, this lies at roughly 1.2520, which is below the weekly reversal level. As bullish momentum has slowed somewhat and the danger of a consolidation/correction is increasing, we’ll allow for some careful trend and counter-trend trading if the opportunity arises. Watch for potential topping at 1.2980/1.3000

Update:
Very little change, as the euro popped its head up briefly above 1.3000, and then back to the range. We’ll have to wait and see if we get another rally from here. The strategy remains unchanged, apart from small adjustments to the support levels above. Probably best to focus on trading in the direction of the bullish trend
today.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as faras 1.2630. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:
30july2010.jpg
 

Traders-Live

Active Trader
Jul 22, 2010
33
0
37
South Africa
www.traders-live.com
EUR?USD Analysis 2 August

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

Key G7 support levels: 1.2960/80, 1.2920, 1.2660/70

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
A messy old day on Friday (as expected on the last Friday of the month) saw some nasty whipsaws leaving the price essentially unchanged since Thursday. This week we are bullish yet again, with weekly support at 1.2860 and various support levels above there at 1.2960 and 1.2920. The strategy remains unchanged – but the euro into
dips after a clear g7 entry signal with a target of 1.3100 and perhaps higher. A word of caution – the price has reached just shy of the weekly 38% retracement level (see weekly) chart, and the euro is more overbought than it has been since October 2009. This means we are possibly due for a sharp correction, which could take us below the weekly trend reversal level in quick time.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a sudden pullback as far as 1.2500. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:
02August2010.jpg
 

Traders-Live

Active Trader
Jul 22, 2010
33
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37
South Africa
www.traders-live.com
EUR\USD Analysis 20 August

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3340

Key G7 resistance levels: 1.2900/20, 1.2960, 1.3030, 1.3100

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal. Today's trade suggestion: A sudden reversal of fortunes for the Euro has created a large bearish weekly candle and a drop below last week’s reversal level. That means we are bearish this week, whilst below 1.3340, a long way above us. Remember that August is traditionally a tough month to trade due to thin markets creating sudden swings in both directions. The two hundred period moving averages are around about the first resistance levels between 1.2900 and 1.2960, and these are the first levels where we’ll look to sell. Targets will be back down at 1.2750 and perhaps lower.

Update: Pretty much ranged since the start of the week. The strategy remains the same – sell into rallies, with resistance levels unchanged. After last week’s dramatic move lower, it’s not unusual to get a period of consolidation whilst the traders not on holiday digest the moves.

Update Friday: No change – strategy remains the same!

Summary: Sell rallies to resistance levels, starting at 1.2900, after a clear G7 entry signal. Target 1.2750 and perhaps lower.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:
20August.gif
 

Traders-Live

Active Trader
Jul 22, 2010
33
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South Africa
www.traders-live.com
The Enemy Within

We are all familiar with the terms Fear and Greed, or at least we should be. We hear about them all the time. Everyone is always preaching to us about the dangers of these two powerful emotions. But do we actually realise just how powerful they are? And more importantly, how influential they are? After all, they alone are responsible for moving trillions of dollars a day. Now that’s real power.

Yes, these two little old emotions are just not given their due.

The good news though is that once you actually understand how they work, and no longer just “know” that they exist, then for the very first time, you will be able to take control of your trading future.

These are the two emotions that single handedly drive the entire currency market…yes…you read it right…emotions drive the price action, not some mysterious force, that you have been struggling to come to grips with.

The market is driven by emotion under the guise of human behaviour and nothing else

Whether it’s a lonely $500 punter on his home computer, or a large fund manager hedging millions of pension dollars; or perhaps a young buck on the trading floor desperate to carve out his reputation as a respectable trader. They all fight the fight on a daily basis – they wage war constantly against these two forces.

Every half-decent life coach will acknowledge that we are driven primarily by two forces. We are maybe more familiar with them under the more common names of – Pleasure and Pain, but nearly all of life is influenced by these two forces, so make sure you know them well – make sure you are able to recognise them under whichever guise they may appear to you. Your mission as a trader is to learn to recognise the power they hold over you and be able to control them from here on out.

The truth is we move towards pleasure and away from pain, its as simple as that.

We do this on a day to day basis but we don’t even know it. Almost every single decision we make is weighed up, in a split second, by our sub consciousness – processed and executed, without us even realizing it. And what’s more – we don’t even know we are doing it. The reality is though, that the underlying forces behind every action we take are these two powerful forces. Every trading decision we have ever made was governed by these two forces.

Not me I hear you say?

Are you sure about that?

Maybe it isn’t all that obvious at first, so let’s paint a picture for you. Let’s look at a few examples and see if you can picture yourself in any of these scenarios at all?

* Ever stood on the side line paralysed by fear only to see your trade run away with you?
* Ever had to utter these words to yourself afterwards? “Darn, why the heck didn’t I take the damn trade…I knew it was right, I did all the right analysis…what the hell happened – why didn’t I pull the trigger?”
* Ever got into a trade all too quickly only to be struck by an almost immediate and overwhelming feeling of uncertainty?
* How many trades have you been in when you suddenly realised that just maybe you had rushed the entry and now you were seeing other criteria backing the opposite view.
* Ever been in a trade and – against your better judgment – decided to move a stop away, because you just could not afford another loss at that point?
* How about moving a stop up too soon only to be stopped out, then see the trade fly off in your direction, but your are no longer in it?

These are only a handful of the day to day “mistakes” that traders have been making for as long as the currency market has been around and in fact as long as any market has been around.

And that’s the real problem here – by the time we figure this all out, and realise just what is going on, we are broken, and yes, probably broke traders, with little resolve left to continue the fight.

I have been conducting surveys with traders for, as I said, a long time now, and I can go over every survey…and it doesn’t matter if it was from 1999 or 2009. I will show you a common thread running through all these surveys?

Was it immediately obvious at first?

No not at all.

Why?

Well because I wasn’t looking for it.

I was looking for what it was that every trader wanted!

I was looking for answers to questions I have long been asking myself.

Why does every trader seem to struggle so much, and why do so many fail?

I wanted to give them answers…the problem is none of them knew what they were looking for. They wanted solutions…

* They wanted a better system
* They wanted a proven track record
* They wanted someone to trade for you (perhaps a robot)
* They wanted to know the “secrets”
* They wanted to know what broker to use
* They wanted to know what charting package to buy
* They wanted to know if we could trade a managed fund for you
* They wanted a signal service

Well you know what – they had all of that already…and you know what’s more?

Most of them still struggled…even with all the right answers!

So tell me what the hell is wrong with this picture then?

Are we all too stupid?

Perhaps we are all too inexperienced?

Perhaps all the so called experts are just crappy teachers?

Maybe the odds are so stacked against us that we never stood a chance anyway?

Well the truth of the matter is that none of those are correct. None of this matters one damn bit in the end. You can have the best charting, the best “ninja/guru” teacher….I sure know that you aren’t stupid – so what is it then?

Well you should have got to some realization by now…if not then maybe I was wrong in my last assumption after all ;-)

You should be thinking to yourself by now…could it be Fear & Greed? Just maybe, could it be something as simple as this and not all the technical stuff after all that is responsible for my poor showing?

Well you’re right. It is Fear and Greed!

The reason it isn’t all that clear, initially, is because we aren’t looking for what might be causing the problem…

WE ARE ONLY LOOKING FOR A SOLUTION!!!

When I began diagnosing the results, it wasn’t just inconceivable that the same mistakes were being repeated year in and year out, by so many traders, but it was also clearly obvious to me that there was some underlying ‘cause” behind these mistakes…

It was no longer the mistakes that interested me, but why we made these very same mistakes time after time…

It was now a frantic search for the common denominator – the common thread that wove itself through each and every trader’s story – that perpetually joined us all together.

Mistakes that not only blow out accounts in one dramatically tragic trade, but that can also just as easily slowly and agonizingly hemorrhage a person’s trading account.

And not just in the sense of their money I might add…but more importantly – of their confidence.

And let me tell you, once you lose your confidence as a trader….then all is lost!

The search was on to establish why we all made the same mistakes!

If we all make them – then we must have something in common – the solution must be something we all have within us then!

Let’s take a quick look at some more trading scenarios that play out every single day in the market.

Still think our emotions don’t affect the bigger picture?

* The greed factor (fear) of missing out on a strong trend causes people to buy in at the top, or at the end of a run thus pushing it even further until people start getting nervous and the expectancy of (much more) abates. The market then falters – opinion shifts, and the chase is on again, only this time in the opposite direction.
* The Fear factor (Pain) also causes people to eventually cut their losses, and I might add, after, often having held on a lot longer than they should have. This once again adds to the momentum and the market is fueled again causing the price to continue dropping.

Greed & Fear play out in many more scenarios. Traders can be frozen by fear and never enter a trade for example. However, the fear is not of the trading itself, but rather a fear of loss…they are fearful of losing money (or perhaps face) and so if they don’t ever take a trade…well they won’t ever be wrong…or lose anything either of course.
It’s far easier to sit on the side lines and pass comment than play the game yourself!

This is the real driving force behind the ebb and flow of the markets. If the market was 100% efficient and currencies were valued at their fair value then there would be no need for traders. The seasoned trader knows how to take advantage of this, and knows how to capitalize on the emotions of others.

So how do we become that seasoned trader when we have these strong emotions of Fear and Greed constantly pulling at us every day?

Most of us were drawn into trading due to the lure of easy money. How difficult can it be after all…it can only go up…or down…surely we have got to get that right more times than not?…after all we’re clever – above average at the very least. And we’re not one of those suckers who have unrealistic expectations are we?
 

Traders-Live

Active Trader
Jul 22, 2010
33
0
37
South Africa
www.traders-live.com
The Enemy Within Continues

So we trawl through a few free web sites, download some videos off You-Tube and we grab a free meta- trader charting account.

We demo trade for a while and as per our expectations it isn’t all that hard after all. We trade a 50k account and make thousands of dollars at a time – this sure feels good. And those loses…well we weren’t really paying attention … after all we were on the phone…we had to rush out..so it wasn’t really a trade that counts…we can ignore it…but that 100 pip win yesterday…the trade we forgot we even had in the system…man that was awesome – this trading thing rocks!

Then one day we go live…we don’t have a 50k account of course but we scrape together $500, and suddenly the feeling isn’t quite the same. The wins aren’t quite as euphoric as they used to be, as we now only bank a few dollars at a time. So what do we do…we up the leverage…hey man what an idiot I am…I could be making double this amount if I just trade a few more positions at a time.

That’s how we make our first ‘mistake’…

Did you recognise anything here…get any AHA moments…maybe thought to yourself…but that’s stupid…that’s just being GREEDY…

Oh look there’s that word again – greed ;-)

So – we make mistakes – why?

Is it because we are stupid?

Well that can be argued of course, as an entire species we don’t seem to be doing all that well – and you only have to watch 10 minutes of local news to figure that one out.

So ok let’s assume we aren’t all that stupid…then it must be something else…

Ignorance; Perhaps?

Well unfortunately we can’t blame that one either as we knew the rules before we started – we had after all read up all about money management and risk, and had been warned enough times – so could it be?

No, surely not?

Could it simply be that we were too greedy?

Well it does seem so, after all…

After all, we did go against proven logic and sound trading principles …and what led us down the slippery road to certain emotional carnage?

A little bit of Greed, that’s all it took in the end, and the painful journey had begun.

But surely we knew!

Surely if we figured we could make double – we figured we could also lose double?

Well unfortunately human nature as it is…we tend to ignore pain (and possible painful outcomes)…and we attach ourselves to pleasure (just imagine the endless bragging rights we will be entitled to when we hit the big one).

So here comes a good healthy dose of pain…

To start with, your spouse tears into you for being so dense – after all, even they could see that was a stupid decision.

But just imagine the possibilities should you have got it right…you could have…well let’s not go there…

So after beating your head against the wall in your office for a few nasty minutes, you swear to never do this again.

The problem is we don’t remember the pain all that long…and unless it is really painful…we are back testing our intelligence again in no time.

We get it eventually though, but now the pendulum swings and the problem is compounded further…

The pleasure of winning is never as strong as the pain of losing.

And so now here we are, hunched over our charts, frozen with fear at every opportunity or set up that comes our way.

Analysis Paralysis – here we come!!!

Then what happens next?

Ouch, we now add to this rather sad outlook by now trying to make up for the loss…

So we start to…oh forget it – go back to page 2 and read it again.

As traders, I really hope that you get this message loud and clear. We are all driven by Pleasure and Pain. Every decision you make is in some way or how based on the implication of one or even both of these two outcomes being unavoidable.

Never forget to analyse the true reason you made those basic trading mistakes…don’t forget to look for the cause.

Kind regards,

Chris Mathews.
 

Traders-Live

Active Trader
Jul 22, 2010
33
0
37
South Africa
www.traders-live.com
Make a Habit of it

You have to enjoy the habit…not just have one for the sake of having one.

I was going to write an article on this myself, but it is now 2h30 in the morning… I have one day to finish a never-ending list of tasks, because I will be away for a week and a bit, and I want to make sure you get this message now rather than later.

I have various videos in on habits and how important it is to have good habits in the first place…and of course…how important it is to dump bad habits as soon as you can – especially trading habits, because more than just the pain, it can cost you actual money as well.

So firstly, know what habits you will need as a trader, know what dangers await you should you not pay the necessary attention to forming these habits – through shear discipline and effort (yes I bet you didn’t want to hear that).

Remember, we always respond to pain or pleasure, as I mentioned in my last email and PDF. So be aware of this.

Forming new habits can be painful…well because it’s hard…and because it takes time (and who has any of that these days?).

Breaking old habits is perhaps even harder though…as they, by their very nature, become part of who we are and so it is never easy getting rid of something that you are – a piece of you so to speak.

So that being said – they are essential to longevity in this game…remember, the very best traders keep the very best of habits.

I received this article this week from Leo Babauta who is one of my favorite authors, and as I had planned to do this article anyway (sometimes life can be rather uncanny) and seeing as I have a 3000km round trip planned for this week...I need to get to bed – and anyway he says it better than I could…

“I’ve written a lot about habits — it’s in the title, after all — and after all these years, and after all the questions that people have asked about forming habits, there’s one thing that seems more important than anything else.

It’s simply this: enjoy the habit.

That might seem obvious to some of you, but you’d be surprised how many people try to force themselves to do things they don’t enjoy. They try to instill “discipline” because they think it’ll make them a better person or give them a better life, but what kind of life is it if you force yourself to do things you hate all the time?

And here’s the thing: if you try to make a habit of something you don’t like doing, you’re almost sure to fail. I know, because I’ve tried it many times. If I find myself saying, “I hate this, but I can do it!” then it’s an uphill battle, and one I almost always lose. Because after a week or two of doing this, you’ll lose enthusiasm. You’ll run out of the incredible energy required to form a new habit, and then miss the habit one day, and another day, and soon it’s over.

But look at the opposite scenario — you do something you love doing. Well, how hard is it to motivate yourself to do this? You look forward to it. You are excited about it. When you actually do the habit, you’re happy, and your overall experience is positive. That’s a habit that is much more likely to stick.

I’ve done dozens of experiments in creating habits in my own life, and I’ve helped hundreds if not thousands of others form habits, and it’s a common theme — when the person doesn’t enjoy the new habit, it fails, and when they do, it has a high degree of success.

Sure, there are other factors — how consistent you are, whether you have a trigger that’s already anchored into your regular routine, whether you have social accountability, etc. But the most important factor, by far, is loving the habit.

THE THINGS WE DON’T LIKE

I’ll acknowledge there are times we have to do things we don’t like. That’s a necessary part of life. But why choose such a thing to become a daily habit? If that’s what you’re doing, you should take a long hard look at whether it’s really necessary, and if so, whether you can possibly make changes to your life so that you don’t need to do this activity on such a regular basis. I’ve done this many times, and though the change in my life is sometimes time-consuming, the result is always worth it.

But what about kicking bad habits? Isn’t that hard and unenjoyable? Sure, of course. I kicked the smoking habit (almost 5 years ago), and it was difficult. Agonizing. Fortunately, I figured out that I had to put enjoyable habits in place of the smoking, and I actually looked forward to them — things like running to relieve stress, eating healthy foods, writing, stuff like that. I love those activities, and it made the whole process much easier.

HOW TO LOVE THE HABIT

This how-to section will seem too obvious to some, but it seems necessary to me. How do you go about enjoying the habit? Two ways:

1. Choose a habit you already love. This is the easy way. If you love reading, or drinking tea, or journaling, or taking walks in the park, choose something like that. Want to get active? Choose a sport you love playing, or an outdoor activity that gives you joy. Want to be more productive? Choose a work activity you love doing as your first task each day.

Or:

2. Focus on the enjoyable aspects. If you don’t already love the habit, learn to love it. Not by reprogramming your mind to love something you hate, but by finding things about the habit you do enjoy. For example, when I started running, it was hard. I was a recent smoker, so my lungs were crap, and my legs were weak, and I’d get tired fast. But there were things I enjoyed too — getting outside, the fresh air, moving and feeling my heart beating, the beauty of nature, the good feeling after I was done. So I focused on these things, and it worked. And then eventually the running got easier and I loved everything about the activity. This kind of thing can be done with almost anything — look hard for the good aspects, the things you enjoy. If you can’t find anything, you’ve chosen the wrong habit.

In the end, discipline doesn’t work. You can’t use discipline to form a habit you hate, because what exactly do you do when you don’t feel motivated to do the habit? You find something about it to get you going, and that’s thinking about something enjoyable — the enjoyable end result, for example, or an enjoyable reward, or how good you’ll feel telling others you did it. There are many ways to motivate yourself with something enjoyable, but no ways to use the nebulous concept of “discipline” to do something you hate.

Love the habit, and it will stick around longer.”

So that works for me…makes perfect sense and explains why people struggle to retain a change of habit…they simply don’t enjoy it…and we never do what we don’t want to if we can avoid it somehow.

So set some fun goals for yourself this week regarding habits you may want to break, dump, or make and go get your goals acted on and thereby obtained though good conscious effort and disipleine.

Cheers for now,

Chris
 

Traders-Live

Active Trader
Jul 22, 2010
33
0
37
South Africa
www.traders-live.com
Forex Candles explained

Hi

I will be away for the next few days taking care of some personal business!

This means there will be no alerts, trades or reports until Tuesday 28th September.

It's a good time for you to take a long weekend and recharge your batteries for a profitable and exciting trading week next week!

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1ViyzVYSnU]Here is the first of a series of 6 videos explaining how candles work to be continued next week[/ame]

Take care
 

Traders-Live

Active Trader
Jul 22, 2010
33
0
37
South Africa
www.traders-live.com
Forex Report and part 3 of Forex Candles

We have two video's for you today - 1st our daily Forex Trading report

[ame="youtube.com/watch?v=5ONKVKJjQKQ"]Please click here for our Youtube Forex Daily report - 1 October[/ame]

and second the 3rd part of our Forex Candles enplination

[ame="youtube.com/watch?v=BqLLrkBGmMo"]Please click here for our Youtube Forex Candles part 3[/ame]

Regards

Chris
 

wink_market_raider

Active Trader
Oct 4, 2010
3
0
32
Singapore
EURUSD update 06 Oct 2010 Wed

EUR has gained more than 1,200 pips since 10 Sept.

Historically, any gain of that range achieved over a month time might signal toward end of euro rally.

Trader, be careful if you have long position in profit.

Personally, I think this pair has reached the summit, with 1.3900 to 1.3950 strong barriers.

Long trader can try using initial shadows for today with target as mention above.

Advise to liquidate most position or lock profit before NFP.

Market might change direction by then.


Regards,
WINK Associates
[links removed]
 

LivinFX

Active Trader
Oct 6, 2010
20
0
32
www.freeforexspreadsheet.com
EUR has gained more than 1,200 pips since 10 Sept.

Historically, any gain of that range achieved over a month time might signal toward end of euro rally.

Trader, be careful if you have long position in profit.

Personally, I think this pair has reached the summit, with 1.3900 to 1.3950 strong barriers.

Long trader can try using initial shadows for today with target as mention above.

Advise to liquidate most position or lock profit before NFP.

Market might change direction by then.


Regards,
WINK Associates
[links removed]

Well, I'm not so sure about it ... it has broken 1.40 and I wouldn't be surprised if this is the start way up back to 1.50.