"There is not much reaction (to the news) because the pre-holiday liquidity is very tight."
– Helen Lau, Argonaut Securities (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal surged in the early hours of Friday's trading session. However, such a tendency has been seen throughout this week, as either scalpers take profit during the Asian session or there exists a negative sentiment on the US Dollar in Asia due to other fundamental reasons. Although, in the second half of the day of the GMT time zone the bullion steadily continues to fall. It is most likely that Friday's trading session will be no different from the few previous, as there are usually no gradual changed in finance in the period up to Christmas.
Traders' Sentiment
Gold traders also have not changed their positions. 60% of SWFX traders remain long. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders were set to buy the metal.
"The pair continues to face downside pressure medium term as it looks to resume is its broader weakness presently on hold."
- FX Techstrategy Team (based on investing.com)
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency fluctuated between two levels of significance against the US Dollar on Monday morning. The two levels of significance were the 2015 low level at 1.0462 and the newly calculated weekly PP at 1.0435. During the previous trading sessions the pair fluctuated near the same level. However, there was no equivalent to the support of the new weekly pivot point. Due to that it might be possible that the rate will continue to remain rather flat before it moves lower later on.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain bullish on the pair, as 56% of open positions were long on Monday. Meanwhile, 60% of pending commands were to sell the Euro.
"The pound has not looked sharp in the fourth quarter, as GBP/USD has slipped as much as 4.9% during since October 1."
– Market Pulse (based on investing.com)
Pair's Outlook
The Pound continued to trade below the 1.23 mark against the US Dollar on Monday. Previously the currency exchange rate slightly surged during Friday's trading session. However, the surge was the result of a rebound from the combined support of the lower Bollinger band and the monthly S1, which both were located near the 1.2250 level. It is most likely that the rate will continue on its way downward, as there is active a rather strong descending channel.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have decreased their bullish outlook, as 61% of open positions were long on Monday, compared to 65% on Friday. Meanwhile, 54% of trader set up orders were to sell the Sterling.
"Yields spreads should attract more capital into the USD."
– Ray Attrill, NAB (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar lost ground against the Japanese Yen, as the currency exchange rate depreciated during Monday's trading session. The main reason for that was the fact that the pair ended Friday's trading at 117.36, and with the start of a new week that mark was below a new level of resistance. The pair began Monday below the weekly PP at 117.39. It is possible that the pair will soon fall to the 116.54 mark, as there are no other support levels before that.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remained bearish on the pair, as 54% of open positions were short on Monday. Meanwhile, 56% of trader set up pending commands were to buy the Greenback.
"As we look at a rising interest-rate environment that will add value to the dollar. That will put tremendous downside pressure on gold."
- Erik Tatje, RJO Futures (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal's price did not fluctuate on Monday morning because it was not being traded. However, previously during Friday's trading session the bullion managed to surge by the end of the day, as it ended day's trading session at 1,132.69. In addition, the commodity price fluctuated more to the upside during the day's trading session, as at one moment the metal's price reached above the 1,135 mark.
Traders' Sentiment
Trader positions remained bullish, as 60% of them were long. Meanwhile, 62% of pending commands were to buy the metal.
"The expiry of the December currency futures may have spurred more than normal speculative position adjusting." – Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman (based on investing.com)
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency remained stuck between the 2015 low level of 1.0462 and the weekly pivot point at 1.0435 against the US Dollar on Tuesday morning. It seems that it is more than likely possible that the currency exchange rate will remain in this level until next year. The reasons for that would be the fact that, by looking at the volume measures, on Monday only half of the usual trading volume occurred. Traders have taken not only Christmas off, but also the whole week. In the meantime, the previous forecast of a fall remains active.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bullish on the pair, as 55% of open positions were long. Meanwhile, 59% of trader set up orders were to sell the Euro.
"U.K. companies are more likely to hike prices next year rather than absorb the impact of higher import costs caused by the Brexit-induced drop in the pound." – Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
The Sterling remained almost flat on Tuesday morning against the Greenback. However, the currency exchange rate was more volatile to the downside, as it was pressured lower by the upper trend line of a medium term descending channel pattern. The rate has been almost flat just below the 1.23 mark for the past few trading sessions. The reason for that is that the rate has support provided by the monthly S1 at 1.2251. However, the general down trend still persists, as strong as ever, as turmoil in the UK is not stopping.
Traders' Sentiment
Trader sentiment remains bullish, as 63% of open SWFX positions are long. Meanwhile, 57% of trader set up orders were to sell the Pound.
"The Yen was steady against the US Dollar on Tuesday after Japanese housing starts came in much weaker than they had in the previous month." – David Cottle, Daily FX
Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar did not depreciate further against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday. A fall of the currency exchange rate was indicated by the technical data. However, a rare event occurred that affected the currency pair. Fundamental data affected a currency exchange rate on a daily timeframe. To be precise, it was the US housing starts, which were so low that the fall of the USD/JPY stopped. As a result an attempt to break through the weekly PP at 117.39 even occurred. Due to that traders are advised to review their short term forecasts.
Traders' Sentiment
Trader sentiment remains unchanged, as 54% of traders shorted the US Dollar on Tuesday. Meanwhile, trader set up orders were bullish, as 55% of pending commands were set up to buy the Greenback.
"It's pretty much Chinese demand at the moment, although it's very thin." – Alex Thorndike, MKS PAMP Group (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal's price skyrocketed on Tuesday morning, as it jumped from 1,133.04 to trade above 1,150 by 7:45 GMT. This move occurred after a flat Monday's trading session was marked on the charts. Although, in reality the bullion did not trade during Monday's trading session. The fact that there is an empty candle is not the biggest problem for analysts. The problem is that the candle, which is forming on Tuesday in reality will represent the combined market force of two separate candles. That is suggested to be taken into account by traders.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remained bullish on the metal, as 59% of them had open long positions. Meanwhile, 60% of trader set up orders were to buy the yellow metal.
"The Dollar Is Nearly Done."
- Kit Juckes, Societe Generale (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency surged and broke the resistance put up by the 2015 low level at 1.0462 against the US Dollar on early Wednesday morning. The move was unexpected, as the 2015 low level was strong enough to keep the rate down for the past three consecutive trading sessions. Due to that a review of the pair was done. It was found out that the pair is in a week ascending channel, and the lower trend line of that channel together with the weekly PP at 1.0435 on Tuesday provided enough support to push the rate higher.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bullish, as 53% of open positions were long on Wednesday morning. In the meantime, traders have set up 61% of open positions to sell the Euro.
"The pound has come under added pressure into the end of the year. Diverging economic outlooks and monetary policy divergence should keep a lid on sterling rallies, while the threat of a hard Brexit and looming invocation of Article 50 could expose the UK currency to additional downside."
– LMAX (based on Business Recorder)
Pair's Outlook
Once again the GBP/USD currency pair remained relatively unchanged, retaining its position below the 1.23 mark. No major changes are likely to occur ahead of the end of the year, thus, with the Cable expected to remain flat for another day. The 1.23 major level appears to be providing strong psychological resistance, whereas the monthly S1 at 1.2251 acts as a tough support. Downside risks are somewhat higher, as the Sterling has been declining against the US Dollar for nearly four weeks now and technical indicators also suggest that bears are to prevail today. In case the monthly S1 is pierced, the next target will be the trend-line at 1.2170.
Traders' Sentiment
There are 65% of traders holding long positions today (previously 63%). Meanwhile, 59% of all pending orders are to sell the British Pound.
"We feel the worst period is almost over for USD/JPY basis as the risk of further rate cut in Japan has receded."
– JP Morgan (based on Market Watch)
Pair's Outlook
Demand, represented by the 117.00 major level, appears to have been sufficient to prevent the USD/JPY pair from suffering more losses yesterday, as it did during the previous week. The Buck added 31 pips against the Japanese Yen, successfully climbing over the immediate resistance, namely the weekly PP. The pair now has the potential to post more gains, and technical indicators are bolstering this possibility, as they retain bullish signals. However, the nearest resistance, formed by the weekly R1, is unlikely to be reached due to lack of impetus. Furthermore, the 118.00 mark is expected to prevent further appreciation, as it did last week.
Traders' Sentiment
For the third consecutive day 54% of traders remain short the US Dollar. At the same time, there are 56% of orders to purchase the Buck.
"Since there are a few trading days left until the end of this year we think that the rebound will not be very strong."
– Jiang Shu, Shandong Gold Group (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal traded above the 1,140 mark on Wednesday morning. Previously, the commodity price jumped with high momentum and reached above the 1,150 mark during the early hours of Tuesday's trading session. However, it retreated after the surge until it found support in the 1,133.57 level, where the weekly PP is located at. Today's surge was just a continuation of the rebound. It is likely that the rise of the yellow metal will not extend further than the 1.150,18 mark where the weekly R2 is located at.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain long on the metal, as 59% of open positions were long on Wednesday. Meanwhile 62% of trader set up orders were to buy the bullion.
"The euro was the biggest loser versus the dollar in the G-10 group, with losses of about 0.6 percent."
- Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency surged on Thursday morning against the US Dollar, as it once more reached the 2015 low level. Previously, during Wednesday's trading session the currency pair retreated after slightly reaching above the 2015 low level, which is located at 1.0462. Afterwards, the rate fell until it found support in the weekly S1 at 1.0371. Thursday's morning surge was just a continuation of that rebound. The rate is set to continue bouncing around below the 2015 low level throughout the day.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bullish with 57% of total open positions being long. Meanwhile, trader set up orders remain unchanged, as 61% of pending commands were to sell the Euro.
"The pound has come under added pressure into the end of the year. Diverging economic outlooks and monetary policy divergence should keep a lid on sterling rallies, while the threat of a hard Brexit and looming invocation of Article 50 could expose the UK currency to additional downside."
– LMAX (based on Business Recorder)
Pair's Outlook
Wednesday ended with the British Pound weakening against the US Dollar again, this time piercing the monthly S1. However, the second target remained untouched, as volatility was limited by the 1.22 and the 1.23 major levels. Even though technical indicators keep giving bearish signals today, the 1.22 mark could still hold and prevent the Cable from falling deeper down, also being reinforced by the monthly S1. The monthly S1 is now unlikely to be reliable, thus, the Sterling has the potential to negate yesterday's losses and edge closer to the 1.23 mark once more.
Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment remains bullish, with 66% of all open positions being long today (previously 65%). Meanwhile, the share of sell orders inched down, namely from 59 to 56%.
"Should the dollar make substantial gains from here, particularly against the yen, it will be interesting to see how president-elect Trump responds given his previous comment."
– BNY Mellon (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
After a rather strong six-week rally the USD/JPY currency pair began to slide down, being in a bearish trend for two weeks now. A strong decline of approximately 100 pips today would confirm a descending channel pattern by establishing its lower trend-line. The trend-line would pass right between the weekly S1 and the 20-day SMA, making that a strong demand area. However, technical indicators are in favour of the positive outcome, implying the Buck could still recover from its current intraday low of 116.23. Nevertheless, such scenario would still provide material for the descending channel pattern to be emerged.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders' sentiment is close to being neutral, as there are only 52% of all open positions being short and the remaining 48% being long. The majority of all pending orders, 53%, are to purchase the Greenback.
"I think it's because of the dollar, which has weakened a little bit."
– Helen Lau, Argonaut Securities (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal's price jumped on Thursday morning and reached once more the second weekly resistance at 1,150.18. However, the metal did not manage to break through the resistance, which on Thursday was strengthened by the 20-day SMA at 1,151.45. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a fall of the metal by the end of the day, which might occur, as markets still predict that the US Dollar will appreciate even more.
Traders' Sentiment
In the meantime, SWFX traders remain optimistic regarding the yellow metal's price, as 59% of open positions were long on Thursday morning. In addition, 61% of trader pending commands were set up to buy the bullion.
"The euro surged as much as 1.6 percent against the dollar in the Asian morning Friday as a rush of computer-generated orders caught traders off guard."
- Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Friday's trading session all of the technical analysis of the EUR/USD currency exchange rate experienced a shock. The shock came in the form of a surge up to the 1.0653 mark. It was supposedly caused by a rush of computer generated orders. It seems that an algorithm run fund with enough funds to cause such a move changed its forecast for the pair from short to long. At that moment, as the algo recalculated the outlook of the pair it put out the buy orders, and that caused the jump.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain long on the pair, as 56% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 60% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
"The GBP/USD exchange rate remains pointed firmly lower as we approach year-end, and the structure of the underlying foreign exchange market suggests we can expect further losses moving forward."
– PoundSterlingLive
Pair's Outlook
Although the British Pound successfully posted some gains against the American Dollar on Thursday, risks remain skewed to the downside. The closest support, namely the monthly S1, is unlikely to keep the Cable afloat, as it gave in earlier this week, allowing the pair to cross the 1.2250 threshold. The next target is the 1.22 major level, which managed to provide sufficient psychological support for the time being, but, ultimately, the trend-line near the 1.21 mark is expected to eventually be put to the test. Technical studies are in favour of the negative outcome, suggesting the Sterling's attempts to reclaim the 1.23 mark will be in vain.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain bullish on the Cable, with 65% of all open positions being long. Meanwhile, 54% of all pending orders are to sell the Pound.
"The dollar looks like it has run its course against the yen for now."
– Mizuho Securities (based on Business Recorder)
Pair's Outlook
Yesterday's decline in the USD/JPY pair's exchange rate was the last touch required in order to establish a descending channel pattern. Today a bearish outcome is highly unlikely, as the immediate support, which kept the pair from falling deeper down yesterday, is now also reinforced by the channel's lower trend-line, making demand around the 116.35 level even stronger. According to technical indicators the US Dollar is to outperform the Yen today, providing an additional sign of a possible positive outcome. However, the Greenback could reclaim the 117.00 major level today, but a surge beyond 117.25 is doubtful, as there the channel's resistance line coincides with the weekly PP.
Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment is now equally divided between the bulls and the bears, while only 51% of all pending orders are to purchase the Buck.
