Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD nearing 1.11 mark on Friday

"The monthly, US labor statistics are occasion for considerable speculation and frequently heavy volatility."
- based on Daily FX

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency fell to 1.1126 on Thursday against the Greenback, and the pair almost touched the monthly pivot point at 1.1107. On early Friday morning the currency exchange rate has slightly surged and gained ten pips by 5:00 GMT, and it faces the 55-day SMA at 1.1154, if it continuous to surge during Friday's trading session. The daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the pair during today's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders continue to be bearish on the pair, as 56% of open positions are short on Friday. However, pending commands have slightly shifted to the bullish side, as they were 53% short at the start of Friday's session.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD plummets under 1.32

"The committee is endorsing the very dovish market path, whereby bank rate goes to 0.1 percent and that's the natural point to think where the rate might be headed."
- Chris Hare, Investec (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
A more dovish tone from the BOE pushed the price further away from 1.3350 and below 1.32, which we expected to hold. Nevertheless, support at 1.31, which played an important role in the second half of July, remains intact, meaning that if not a full-blown recovery, there is likely to be at least an upward correction to 1.32. Even in case 1.31 is broken, there is still a massive demand area between 1.29 and 1.28, where the monthly S1 merges with the July low and the lower bound of the two-and-a-half-year-old channel.

Traders' Sentiment
The market remains divided on where the Cable is headed, being that 50% of traders and long and 50% are short. In the meantime, the share of sell orders keeps increasing: compared to the yesterday's figure it grew from 60 to 66%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY consolidates above 100.70

"The payroll growth in July is likely to be pretty strong. I expect a figure above 200,000. That should be positive for the dollar."
- Ayako Sera, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
Support at 100.70 holds, meaning there is still a good chance of a rally, first up to 103 and then up to 105 yen. The former resistance is created by the monthly pivot point, while the latter a lot denser supply zone is much less likely to let the price increase further. There the bulls will encounter the six-month down-trend and the 55-day SMA. Alternatively, if the scenario suggested by the indicators materialises and both 100.70 and 100 fall victim to the selling pressure, we will expect a bullish correction to start only circa 97 yen, when the rate meets the lower bound of the bearish channel.

Traders' Sentiment
A portion of bulls fell below the level seen five days ago, namely from 66 down to 61%. As for the orders, however, there is still no gap between the buy (50%) and sell (50%) ones.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold struggles below 1,365 on Friday

"Gold needs to break out of its blue H&S right shoulder rising megaphone right now or it's going for another new high."
- Trader Moe (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal continues to fluctuate just below the level of 1,365, which it reached on Monday. The fluctuations are caused by the fact, that the metal keeps reaching and bouncing off the first weekly resistance at 1,366.06, which until Friday was also support by the upper Bollinger band. The Bollinger band has moved higher on Friday, as in the past four trading sessions it has moved from 1,364.05 level on early Monday morning to 1,371.58 by 5:15 GMT on Friday. It is most likely, that the commodity will be stuck at this level until next week.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders are short on the metal, as 56% of open positions were short on Friday morning. However, pending commands were 73% long, which indicates at the SWFX market participants expectations of a surge.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD fluctuating around 1.11 on Monday morning

"There is little reason to think that the Euro, broadly speaking, will find direction over the coming week."
– Christopher Vecchio (based on Daily FX).

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency fell below the monthly PP against the US Dollar on Friday, as the pair even touched the 1.1046 level during Friday's trading session. However, the currency exchange rate opened Monday's trading session at 1.1078, and it surged to 1.11 mark by 5:30 GMT. At that level the currency pair is facing resistance put up by the 20-day SMA, and, in addition, the monthly and weekly PPs are at respectively 1.1107 and 1.1122. Combined together, these resistance levels provide a strong reason for the Euro to depreciate against the US Dollar.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have slightly moved their sentiment to the bullish side, as 45% of open positions are long on Monday, compared to 44% on Friday. In the meantime, pending commands are 49% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD heads towards 1.28

"Given our more hawkish view that the Fed will deliver a rate hike in September, we think there is a lot of room on the downside and target $1.24 in cable."
- BNP Paribas (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The immediate outlook on the Cable is bearish, as the currency pair once again failed to break through supply at 1.33 last week. The exchange rate is thus likely to fall some 250 pips before the bulls will have a good opportunity to take control of the price. The floor is seen as far as 1.28, where the lower bound of the channel developing in the weekly time frame merges with the July low, which was reached as a result of the sell-off initiated by the ‘Brexit' vote. Meanwhile, only weekly technical indicators are mostly bearish.

Traders' Sentiment
At the same time, market sentiment does not confirm a negative bias towards the Sterling, as the amounts of long and short positions are nearly equal. Nevertheless, the share of sell orders is considerably higher than the share of buy orders—63 and 37% respectively.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY recovers from 100.70

"The labor market storyline could be very dollar supportive and consistent with a U.S. rate hike in December or even September."
- Oanda Corp. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
As the key levels are still intact, the medium-term outlook remains mixed, although near-term risks are skewed to the upside. From one side, the currency pair is in the middle of forming a new bearish wave within a nine-month descending channel. A decline is also implied by the daily and monthly technical indicators. From the other side, a major demand zone between 100.70 and 100.00 stands its ground and suggests a rebound. However, as long as a falling resistance trend-line at 105 yen is above the price, prolonged recovery is unlikely.

Traders' Sentiment
Positioning in the SWFX market is in favour of a weaker Dollar, since there are significantly more bulls than there are bears—60 and 40% respectively. In the meantime, compared to the previous report the share of buy orders went up from 50 to 59%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold touches 1,331 level on Monday

"The yellow metal has taken support near the 61.8% retracement and slightly jumped from that level. The intraday trend is slightly bullish as long as support at $1,331 holds."
– based on WBP Online.

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal fell sharply on Friday, as the bullion erased all gains of the previous week. The metal fell from 1,360 at the start of day's trading session and ended day's trading at 1,335. On Monday morning the commodity had moved slightly up, as it was trading at 1,337.08 by 5:45 GMT. In addition, the metal had been volatile by that point, as it touched the 1,331 level during Monday's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders were slightly bearish on gold, as 51% of open positions were short on Monday morning. In the meantime, long pending orders had decreased by 20%, compared to Friday, as 53% of commands were long on Monday.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD rebounds on Tuesday

"The Euro finds itself on the defensive once again having found resistance above the 1.12 figure against the US Dollar."
– Ilya Spivak (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency slightly surged on Monday, as it moved to the 1.1088 level after bouncing off the 200-day SMA at 1.1078. On Tuesday morning, the currency exchange rate moved lower and reached below the 200-day simple moving average. However, this is the third time that the pair has rebounded against the support of the SMA, and, as the daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the pair, it is most likely that the exchange rate will surge during Tuesday's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders continue to be bearish on the pair, as 56% of open positions were short on Tuesday morning. In the meantime, pending commands remain 51% short.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD continues to edge lower

"Given our more hawkish view that the Fed will deliver a rate hike in September, we think there is a lot of room on the downside and target $1.24 in cable."
- BNP Paribas (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
Not much has changed during the last 24 hours, meaning that the near-term outlook for the Cable remains bearish. The pair is still expected to fall towards the 1.28 major level, where the weekly S1 coincides with the July low and the descending channel's support line. However, the exchange rate is unlikely to reach this area today, with the main support still being the cluster around 1.2960, represented by the weekly S1 and the Bollinger band. Meanwhile, technical indicators retain their mixed signals in the daily timeframe, while being bearish in the weekly one.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment remains close to equilibrium, as only 55% of all open positions are long today, compared to 51% on Monday. The share of sell orders barely changed as well, having fallen from 63 to 62%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY remains on the back foot

"The labor market storyline could be very dollar supportive and consistent with a U.S. rate hike in December or even September."
- Oanda Corp. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
The recent rebound from the 50% Fibo keeps suggesting that a short-term recovery towards the current descending channel's resistance line is likely to take place. On the other hand, daily technical indicators imply the USD/JPY currency pair is to sustain a loss today, with the weekly PP at 101.76 acting as the immediate support. In any case, the overall outlook is to remain bearish, as long as the key resistance remains intact, meaning that the current recovery might be short-lived. However, it is uncertain whether bears will be able to push the exchange rate significantly below the support area of 100.70.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish traders' sentiment keeps fading, as 58% of traders are long the Buck (previously 60%). Meanwhile, the portion of buy orders declined from 59 to 55%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold flat at 1,333 on Tuesday

"Gold Has High Odds Of Putting In A Triangle Right Shoulder On Its Head And Shoulders."
– Trader Moe (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal did not move in a certain direction on Monday, as the metal slightly moved lower to 1,333.93 at the end of the day's trading session. On Tuesday morning, the commodity opened day's trading higher than the previous close, as it started trading at 1,335.70. However, by 5:30 GMT gold had moved lower to 1,333.80 level, as the metal tried to break through resistance put up by the 20-day SMA at 1,337.37 and failed at it. If the metal continues to fall, there are no support levels, which could stop it, until the level of 1,324.16.

Traders' Sentiment
Trader sentiment regarding gold remained unchanged on Tuesday morning, compared to Monday, as 51% of open positions were short both sessions. In the meantime, pending commands became more bullish, as 55% of orders were long, compared to 53% on Monday.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD surges above 1.1150 on Wednesday

"The bullish bias will be suggested on the intraday and short term basis unless we witnessed clear break and holding below 1.1067 level."
– based on economies.com

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency is surging against the US Dollar on Wednesday, as the currency exchange rate broke through resistance put up by the 55-day SMA at 1.1150 by 5:00 GMT. Previously the rate surpassed the 20-day SMA and monthly PP at 1.1107 on Tuesday and the weekly PP at 1.1122 in the early morning of Wednesday's trading session. Daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the rest of Wednesday's trading session. However, the weekly forecast shows a fall for the rate, which at the moment seems unlikely.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders increased their bearish sentiment, as 59% of open positions were short on Wednesday morning. In the meantime pending commands are slightly bearish, as 52% of pending orders are short.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD finds support at 1.30

"Markets don't sense any urgency for the Fed to move. It's definitely a headwind for the dollar."
- Westpac Banking Corp. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
Having slumped for the fifth time in a row, the Cable still managed to remain above the 1.30 handle on Tuesday. Investors appear to be taking profit after the plunge, but the 1.31 mark is still a difficult goal to achieve. However, the nearest resistance is still located around 1.3165, represented by the 20-day SMA, the weekly and the monthly PPs. Meanwhile, the 1.30 level is being bolstered by the weekly S1 and the Bollinger band, contributing to the Sterling's rebound today. Nevertheless, risks of intraday gains being erased persist, which could result in a further decline below 1.30, as technical indicators retain mixed signals.

Traders' Sentiment
Sentiment is mostly neutral, as bulls are outnumbering the bears by only 4% points. The share of sell orders increased from 62 to 64%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY risks falling back under 101.00

"Low U.S. productivity growth could suggest the third quarter growth can't be fantastic. That in turn would mean the Fed will not need to raise rates."
- Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
For the second consecutive week the USD/JPY currency pair bounced back from the 102.50 level, unable to surge higher. Even though the Buck found support, represented by the weekly PP, at 101.76 yesterday, technical studies suggest this level is likely to be pierced today. The key support is located around 100.70 mark, namely the 50% Fibo and the weekly S1. In case this area gives in, the pair would then risk falling below the 100.00 mark and possibly even a retest of the falling wedge's lower boundary around 96.00. However, another rebound is eventually expected, which would trigger USD-buying and ultimately lead to an upside breakout from the wedge.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment remains moderately bullish, as 59% of traders hold long positions. The number of buy orders inched down from 55 to 54%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold surges past pivot points on Wednesday

"Gold continues to struggle near the 2011-2012 trendline."
– Jamie Saettele (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal started to surge on Tuesday, and it continued the movement on Wednesday, as by 5:00 GMT the metal had passed resistance put up by both the monthly and the weekly pivot points at 1,345.31 and 1,345.68. As the daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the commodity during the rest of the session, it is most likely that the will not struggle much with the weekly R1 at 1,356.64. Further above that is located the upper Bollinger band at 1,367.57, which most likely will bend, as gold gains value.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain bearish on the metal, as 52% of open positions were short on Wednesday. However, pending commands remained 55% long, as they were on Tuesday.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD around 1.1170 on Thursday morning

"Euro responded to key support noted last week at 1.1060 with the post NFP bounce keeping our focus higher in the pair ever since."
– Michael Boutros (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency surged to 1.1176 against the US Dollar on Wednesday, and on Thursday morning the rate had slightly retreated, as by 5:00 GMT the currency exchange rate was at 1.1170. However, during the morning, the currency pair had fluctuated more to the upside and almost touched the weekly R1 at 1.1197, which might have provided the upside pressure, which made the EUR/USD pair change its direction. As the Euro depreciates against the Buck, it is most likely to find support in the 55-day SMA at 1.1150.

Traders' Sentiment
Trader sentiment remained unchanged on Thursday, as open positions were 59% short on Thursday. In the meantime, pending commands were 53% bearish on the pair.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY trades in murky waters

"Traders have come in to sell USD from a higher level, driving price action right back down to the support zone seen last week."
- James Stanly, DailyFX (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar put the 101.00 major level to the test on Wednesday, but closed trade above that area, registering a 62-pip loss. Another decline today is possible, as technical studies suggest, but the USD/JPY currency pair faces a strong support cluster around 100.70, represented by the 50% Fibo and the weekly S1. This cluster is likely to limit the losses if those occur, but it should also indicate that a rebound is due. However, no substantial gains are expected, with the ceiling being the 102.00 mark, unless the nearest resistance, namely the weekly PP, at 101.76 succeeds in holding the gains first.

Traders' Sentiment
Slightly more traders now have a positive outlook towards the US Dollar today, namely 62% (previously 59%). At the same time, the number of orders to sell the Buck increased from 46 to 69%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold bounces off pivot points at 1,345

"Gold prices were trading notably higher amid rising demand for safety induced by the downbeat US data earlier this week."
– based on WBP Online

Pair's Outlook
The bullion surged during Wednesday's trading session, as it even touched the weekly R1 at 1,356.64. However, the metal ended the day's trading session at the combined level of the weekly and monthly pivot points just at 1,345. At the start of Thursday's session the yellow metal started the day's trading session slightly higher at 1,346.61, and began to fall, as it had moved below the level of combined pivot points to trade at 1,342.27 by 5:15 GMT. Although, it might be temporary, as daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX trader sentiment remained unchanged on Thursday, as 52% of open positions were short. However, pending commands had slightly moved to the bearish side, as 53% of pending orders were long, compared to 55% the previous day.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD flat at 1.1140 on Friday morning

"The outlook for the euro zone economy remains stable but lackluster, a Reuters poll showed, suggesting that for now, the main risks emanating from the UK's vote to leave the European Union are confined to British shores."
– based on Reuters

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency moved below the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1150 against the US Dollar, and the currency exchange rate remained below the SMA on Friday morning, as by 5:30 GMT the pair was at 1.1140. As the rate has formed a channel up trend starting with August 4, in accordance with the pattern the currency pair is set to surge during today's trading session, which is also supported by the daily aggregate technical indicators. However, the EUR/USD pair might first move lower to the 1.1122 level, where the weekly PP meets the pattern's lower trend line.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders end this week, as it was started, bearish, as 58% of open positions were short on Friday. In addition, pending commands were also short, as 57% of pending orders were to sell.