"Gold shrugged off better-than-expected U.S. jobs, housing and factory data that reinforced the view that the U.S. economy is sufficiently robust to warrant interest rate rises."
– Reuters
Pair's Outlook
In the early hours of Monday's trading session the bullion surged to the 1,215 mark. The reason for that is that the yellow metal continued its Friday's surge. The metal is about to face a resistance cluster made up of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,219.20, monthly R2 at 1,218.96 and the weekly R1 at 1,220.32. Due to the strength of this cluster it is most unlikely that the bullion will manage to break above the 1,220 mark without a push from the fundamental side. In the meantime, the only support the yellow metal has is the weekly PP at 1,208.09.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders have not changed their opinion on Monday, compared to Friday. 52% of SWFX open gold positions remain long, and 61% of trader set up orders are still set up to buy the bullion.
"The depreciation of the euro in the period before the March 2015 start of especially high-volume government-bond buying already represented the total and future effect of QE on the euro exchange rate, or an overshoot."
– Bundesbank (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Tuesday's trading session the common European currency began a decline against the US Dollar. However, it was already expected to occur. The forecast for the currency exchange rate remains the same. The Euro is set to depreciate against the Greenback to at least the weekly PP, which is located at 1.0666. In addition, it is possible that the rate moves as low as 1.0613, where the weekly S1 is located at. Afterwards, a rebound is most likely set to occur, and the pair will continue its way in accordance with the medium term ascending channel pattern.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain bearish regarding the Euro, as 54% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 60% of trader set up orders are to sell.
"The growing threat of Donald Trump's proposed fiscal stimulus failing to keep up with market expectations may ensure dollar weakness becomes a recurrent theme in the short term."
– FXTM (based on Business Recorder)
Pair's Outlook
The Sterling overperformed on Monday, having climbed over the 1.25 handle, even piercing the second resistance cluster at 1.2515. Tuesday is rather sensitive day, as a rather important question concerning Brexit is to be dealt with. As a result, the Cable risks falling back under 1.24, with the possibility of the 1.21 mark even being reached, where the monthly S1 coincides with the weekly one. However, a positive development is also possible, with the 1.2750 level expected to be the ceiling, assuming the strong resistance around 1.2680, formed by the 23.60% Fibo, the weekly R2 and the monthly R1, is breached. Technical studies are unable to confirm either scenario.
Traders' Sentiment
Bulls retreated again, as 66% of traders are now long the Pound (previously 68%). The share of sell orders inched up from 52 to 54%.
"We saw dollar weakness in conjunction with those falling yields [US Treasury yields], and it led to a strengthening of the yen."
– Bill Northey, chief investment officer of the private client group at U.S. Bank (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar's relatively sharp decline against the Japanese Yen yesterday caused the bearish trend to be reconfirmed. The pair lost 159 pips during Monday, edging closer to its eight-week low; with this psychological support the Greenback has the potential to erase some of yesterday's losses. The supply cluster around 114.00 is likely to limit any substantial gains, as the four-week down-trend rests there, also being reinforced by the monthly S1, the weekly PP and the 55-day SMA. Meanwhile, technical indicators keep giving bearish signals, suggesting the Buck could fall deeper down if Yen's safe-haven status triggers demand.
Traders' Sentiment
There are now 53% of traders with a positive outlook towards the Buck (previously 48%), while 60% of all pending orders are to buy the USD.
"We are looking at gold hitting $1,250 within weeks. The rationale is very simple. The market was in honeymoon with Trump. With him in power now, the reality starts to bite."
– Dominic Schnider, UBS Wealth Management (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
As forecasted before, the yellow metal surged back up to the resistance cluster, which surrounds the 1,220 mark, and bounced off it. The recent movements have forced analysts to adjust the medium term forecasts, as the latest sessions have revealed the true location of the lower trend line of the medium term ascending channel pattern. In accordance with the pattern the bullion is set to remain below the 1,220 level until January 26, when the lower trend line of the pattern is set to force the commodity price higher.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX trader open positions remain unchanged for the third consecutive session, as 52% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the bullion.
"We do expect a strong dollar."
– Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency continues to depreciate against the US Dollar, as the rate is in its bounce off from the upper trend line of the medium term ascending channel pattern. During yesterday's trading session the rate passed the support provided by the weekly R1 at 1.0752, and at the moment the closest notable support level on the daily chart is at 1.0666, where the weekly PP is located at. These factors combined support the previously made forecast that the currency exchange rate is about to fall to the weekly PP.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are shorting the Euro, as 55% of open positions are bearish. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the Greenback versus the Euro.
"Strategically, we remain bearish on GBP/USD and see risks of a move down towards 1.21 over the coming weeks - especially once markets reconnect with the idea of Trumpflation."
– ING (based on PoundSterlingLive)
Pair's Outlook
Tuesday ended relatively pleasant for the British currency, being that it managed to erase most of intraday losses yesterday. Wednesday also brings some positive news, as technical indicators now suggest the GBP/USD currency pair is to edge higher. Moreover, within the next few weeks we should see a potential buy signal, when the 55-day SMA crosses the 100-day one to the upside. At the moment, however, the Cable could continue undergoing a correction, meaning that a close in the red zone is possible. The main target at this point is the resistance cluster around 1.2680, which could limit the Sterling's capability of posting further gains against the US Dollar.
Traders' Sentiment
For the seventh time in a row market sentiment weakened. Today 62% of traders are long the Pound, compared to 66% on Tuesday.
"Basically, I expect upside momentum [for the US Dollar]. After all, the comprehensive policy stance of the Trump administration remains to be seen."
– Toshihiko Sakai, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking (based on Market Watch)
Pair's Outlook
Strong US fundamental data helped the Greenback negate most of Monday's losses yesterday, but with the four-week down-trend remaining intact. Consequently, the US Dollar is expected to suffer another loss today, reconfirming the bearish trend. The two closest supports are unlikely to limit the losses if too much selling occurs, however, the 112.59 mark is to be the bottom floor, which prevented the USD/JPY pair from declining on several occasions previously. Technical indicators are also in favour of the negative outcome, as they are giving bearish signals today.
Traders' Sentiment
Bulls are barely outnumbering the bears, as 51% of all open positions are long today (previously 53%). Meanwhile, the portion of purchase orders remains relatively the same, having fallen from 60 to 59%.
"(Gold was) unable to capitalise on a softer dollar with Chinese physical demand beginning to wane as we head ever closer to the New Year holiday period."
– Sam Laughlin, MKS PAMP Group (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal dropped back to the 1,200 level, which had not been seen since Friday. Although, the drop itself might seem not that significant, there are other aspects that need to be taken into account. The bullion broke out of the medium term ascending channel patter, which had guided it since the middle of December. Due to that reason the channel is now obsolete. The commodity price is set to fall as low as 1,197.37, where the next notable support level is located at. At that level the weekly S1 is located at.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders are almost neutral on the metal, as 51% of open positions are long. In the meantime, 57% of trader set up orders are to buy the bullion.
"There's now enough evidence to suggest ECB President Mario Draghi should at last acknowledge that inflation has returned."
– Mark Gilbert, Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
On Thursday morning the common European currency remained below the weekly R1 at 1.0752 against the US Dollar. During the morning hours the rate once more attempted to break through the resistance level. This move was unexpected, as in accordance with various technical analysis factors the pair is set to fall to the 1.0666 mark. It seems that fundamental data and events are keeping the Euro flat against the Greenback. However, the previous forecast is still in force, and a fall is expected.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish on the pair, as 55% of open positions remain short, just as on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 57% of trader set up pending commands are set up to sell the Euro.
"Strategically, we remain bearish on GBP/USD and see risks of a move down towards 1.21 over the coming weeks - especially once markets reconnect with the idea of Trumpflation."
– ING (based on PoundSterlingLive)
Pair's Outlook
The Sterling surprised with its performance on Wednesday, having successfully climbed over the 1.26 major level, thus, taking another significant step closer to the main target. Another positive development would allow the GBP/USD pair to reach this target, namely the resistance cluster around 1.2675, represented by the 23.60% Fibo, the monthly R1 and the weekly R2, now also bolstered by the upper Bollinger band. Technically, the Pound should encounter sufficient resistance here in order to reverse polarity, but according to technical indicators the Cable is to keep edging higher, meaning the given supply area could be pierced.
Traders' Sentiment
Once again bullish market sentiment weakened, having fallen from 62 to 61%. The share of sell orders returned to its Tuesday's level of 54%.
"Basically, I expect upside momentum [for the US Dollar]. After all, the comprehensive policy stance of the Trump administration remains to be seen."
– Toshihiko Sakai, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking (based on Market Watch)
Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair experienced another leg down on Wednesday, thus, reconfirming the bearish trend-line. However, the Buck managed to retain its position above the 113.00 mark, indicating a possible rebound today. The four-week down-trend and the monthly S1 are still providing relatively strong resistance, which could keep the pair at bay. Technical studies are also in favour of the negative outcome, suggesting the down-trend is to be preserved. In case the immediate resistance is pierced, the next target will be the cluster around 114.35, formed by the weekly PP and the 55-day SMA. Meanwhile, the main target from below is still the 112.59 psychological demand level.
Traders' Sentiment
Today 54% of traders are long the US Dollar (previously 51%). At the same time, the number of purchase orders inched up from 59 to 60%.
"We suspect that gold could come under further pressure again on Thursday as the follow-through from the U.S. stock rally reverberates through into other global markets."
– Edward Meir, INTL FCStone (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal traded near the weekly S1, which is located at 1,197.37. As forecasted, the bullion fell to the level during Wednesday's trading session. However, it also managed to pass it and touch the 1,193.44 mark during the session. On Thursday morning it is clear that the metal is most likely to continue its fall up to the 1,191.40 level, where the 20-day SMA is located at. If that support level is passed, the bullion might fall as low as the 1,185 mark, where a cluster of support begins. However, it is also possible that the metal rebounds and heads higher. Due to that traders are advised to observe and wait for the start of the move.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders have not changed their opinion regarding the yellow metal at all. 51% of open positions remain long, and 57% of set up orders are to buy.
"EUR/USD dropped to its lowest in a week at 1.0658; bids and stop-loss sell orders were filled under 1.0700 in the drop."
- Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
As it was forecasted, the common European currency dropped to the weekly PP, which is located at 1.0666, against the US Dollar. In addition, during the move the pair touched the 1.0658 mark. The currency exchange rate is still set to move even lower before a rebound occurs, as the next support level is near the 1.0610 mark. That support cluster is made up of three levels of significance and two trend lines, which makes a rebound an almost clear certainty. However, that might not occur during Friday's trading session, as daily aggregate technical indicators for the pair forecast a surge by the end of the day.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 56% of open positions are short on Friday. In the meantime, 60% of trader set up orders are set up to sell the Euro.
"The market is bid above the 55 day ma at 1.2417 and the near term risk remains on the topside. We suspect that prices will need to go sub 1.2250 in order to alleviate immediate upside pressure. Support at 1.2250 guards the 1.1988/80 recent low."
– Commerzbank (based on FXStreet)
Pair's Outlook
In spite of a strong UK GDP reading, the GBP/USD currency pair was unable to pierce the immediate resistance cluster, resulting in a small bearish correction, with a slip below 1.26 again. The same cluster keeps providing strong resistance today around 1.2670, implying that the Pound is to weaken against the US Dollar for the second day. The nearest demand area rests around 1.2515, which could limit possible losses, while another strong group supports is located at 1.2430, namely the monthly PP and the 55-day SMA. However, technical indicators in the daily timeframe suggest the Cable is to inch higher; nevertheless, the immediate resistance is expected to remain intact.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders' sentiment remains bullish at 62%, while the portion of purchase orders edged higher over the day, namely from 46 to 51%.
"The dollar will shift into 105-110 yen range, and around the turn of the year, it's possible it will break 100 yen."
– Eisuke Sakakibara, a former top currency official at Japan's Finance Ministry (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
A strong rally on Thursday caused the USD/JPY pair to breach the four-week down-trend, with even the second resistance area failing to limit the gains. The Buck is poised for another bullish development today, with the main target being the 116.00 mark, where the weekly R1 and the monthly PP are located at. The Greenback, however, is likely to struggle at reaching this level, as it has another supply area on its path circa 114.90, formed by the 20 and the 55-day SMAs. Moreover, technical indicators are unable to confirm this outlook, as they are giving mixed signals today.
Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment is now equally divided between the bulls and the bears. At the same time, the share of purchase orders added nine percentage points, having risen to a total of 69%.
"Most of Asia is already off for the holidays, which is a good time for many to short the metal ... You can see the bids are very weak, which shows the demand right now."
– Ronald Leung, Lee Cheong Gold Dealers (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal continues its way lower, as it entered its fourth consecutive session of decline on Friday. However, the bullion has stopped in the middle of a strong support cluster, which is made up of the weekly S2 at 1,185.14, monthly R1 at 1,184.64 and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at 1,182.37. As already during the morning hours the metal managed to reach out below the cluster, it can be assumed that it is not strong enough to keep gold from continuing to decline in the near future. In such case, it is most likely set to fall as low as 1,176.66 level, where the 55-day SMA is located at.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are neutral regarding the yellow metal. In the meantime, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
"Three major central banks meet in the week ahead, and there are several important reports due out that will give investors more insight into how the economies have begun the new year."
- BBH (based on investing.com)
Pair's Outlook
With the start of a new week, on Monday, the common European currency began the day's trading session a lot higher than the previous close against the US Dollar. The reason for that are the signed policies and actions taken by US president Donald Trump during the weekend. However, the pair slightly retreated during the first trading hours. Afterwards, it met with the weekly PP at 1.0709, which provided support to the pair. Due to this factor it is most likely that the currency exchange rate will surge up to the first weekly resistance level, which is located at 1.0761.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have slightly decreased their bearish outlook, as 54% of trader set up orders are short on Monday, compared to 56% on Friday. In the meantime, 57% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
"We think that market focus will be on any signals regarding the possibility of a US-UK trade deal. If the two parties send optimistic messages with regards to this prospect, sterling could extend its recent gains."
– IronFX (based on Business Recorder)
Pair's Outlook
As was anticipated, the demand cluster around 1.2515 limited downside volatility on Friday, also causing the GBP/USD pair to close at 1.2550, namely a 44-pip loss. However, the Cable opened with a small bullish gap today, which resulted in Friday's losses getting erased. Bears, on the other hand, are refusing to give in, as they continue pushing the Sterling lower. The support area around 1.2515 remains the closest one, where the exchange rate is expected to encounter an obstacle on its journey to the bottom. Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest the Cable could still erase its intraday losses and end the day in the green zone above the 1.26 mark.
Traders' Sentiment
Bullish market sentiment remains unchanged, with 62% of traders being long the GBP. The share of sell orders edged up from 49 to 54%.
"The weak U.S. GDP is doing the dollar no favours. But it also takes courage to keep buying the dollar considering what Trump has said about the kind of a currency policy he could pursue."
– Mizuho Bank (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
In spite of a weaker US GDP reading on Friday, the Greenback still managed to outperform the Japanese Yen, successfully reclaiming the 115.00 level. The Buck is expected to retain its strength and continue outperforming the Yen, but there is still an issue that could prevent the pair from edging higher: the USD/JPY opened with a bearish gap under 115.00, while also having the 20 and the 55-day SMAs providing immediate resistance just above the opening price. The US Dollar's rally is unlikely to last, as we are about to have a sell signal, implying the pair is to edge lower by week's end. At the moment, technical studies are unable to confirm either scenario.
Traders' Sentiment
Today 52% of all open positions are short (previously 50%). Meanwhile, the portion of buy orders inched down from 69 to 59%.
