Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[Anastasia DC]

Gold struggles around 1,280 level on Monday

"We took a deep dive into our gold indicators, and basically found out that all our indicators are flashing red. That is very odd, and certainly not in line with Friday's bullish gold price action."
- Investing Heaven (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
After suffering losses on Thursday, the yellow metal regained losses and it even gained additional value on Friday, as gold reached the 1,297.48 level at the end of day's trading session. However, on Monday morning, the bullion is losing value against the US Dollar, as the metal is at the 1,281.50 mark, and it is struggling on its downward movement with the support provided by the first monthly resistance at 1,278.62. In the meantime, aggregate daily technical indicators predict a surge for gold, and in such case it would have to break the resistance provided by the weekly PP at 1,295.14.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are still majorly bearish, as 67% of all open positions are bearish. However, it is a 3% move to the bullish side, as on Friday 70% of open positions were bearish.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD soars to 1.1335 on Tuesday

"Last week's main event was the US Fed leaving rates unchanged. Yellen explained this by blaming outside factors; Chinese slowdown, Brexit and a slow in developed countries' growth. Nevertheless, Yellen warned we will probably see a rise before the year's end."
- Alpari (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The European currency was volatile during Monday's trading session, as it fluctuated between the levels of 1.1302 and 1.1383 against the US Dollar. However, in general the currency exchange rate ended Monday's trading session lower at 1.1310, than it had started the session at 1.1329. On Tuesday morning the pair surged, and it was trading at 1.1335 by 5:00 GMT. The exchange rate is approaching the weekly R1 at 1.3403, and if it passes it, then the rate will move towards the 1.1408 level of R2. From the downside, the pair is supported by the 55-day SMA at 1.1305.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their sentiment towards the EUR/USD pair since yesterday, as 53% of open positions are bearish, and pending orders in the 100-pip range are also unchanged at 62% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD enjoys 1.47 area

"Following the large sterling moves over last two days and limited risk premium priced in at this point, sterling now looks more vulnerable to negative surprise from the polls."
- ING (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The British currency overperformed on Monday, having edged more than 200 pips higher against the US Dollar. Moreover, the Cable reconquered the 1.47 major level yesterday, but still remains in an overall bearish trend until the resistance line is overcome. Technically, the Pound should undergo a correction today, with investors taking advantage of the previous sharp rally. Aggregate technical indicators are bolstering this possibility, but ahead of the EU referendum the Sterling's behaviour became more and more unpredictable, thus, the down-trend at 1.4760 could be put to the test today.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders turned bearish on the Pound, being that 54% of all open positions are short (previously 45%). At the same time, the portion of sell orders increased from 56 to 62%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY anchored around 104.00

"If it breaks 100, Bank of Japan intervention is possible, but in order to intervene in the markets, you have to get agreement from the United States, and at this level -- 104, 105 -- I don't think the U.S. would agree."
- Eisuke Sakakibara, former Finance Ministry official (based on Market Watch)

Pair's Outlook
Risk aversion keeps driving the USD/JPY currency pair, being that the Greenback experienced another decline against the Japanese Yen on Monday. This time the 104.00 level was pierced, suggesting that more bearish momentum could follow. Technical studies in the daily timeframe also retain their bearish signals, implying that the pair is to sustain another sell-off. The monthly S2, located at 103.34, is the closest support, while the support trend-line at 102.46 is the intraday bottom target. Furthermore, there is an interim support just under the 103.00 mark, that could keep the losses limited, while the upper border is represented by the weekly PP at 104.87.

Traders' Sentiment
Still 74% of all open positions are long today, whereas the share of buy orders inched down from to 61% from 56% on Monday.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold remains unchanged on Monday

"Gold prices fell on Monday, broadening the distance to a two-year high seen last week, as weekend polls suggested the UK was more willing to stick with the EU."
- based on WBP Online

Pair's Outlook
Even as the bullion experienced high volatility on Monday by fluctuating between the levels of 1,277 to 1,292, the yellow metal ended the day's trading session only around 60 pips higher than it started it. However, on Tuesday morning gold prices are falling, as the price moved from 1,289.44 at the start of trading session to 1,285.15 by 5:15 GMT. The price is located between the monthly R1 at 1,278.62 and weekly PP at 1,295.15. In the meantime, aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX decreased their bearish sentiment from 67% of all open positions being short on Monday to 61% on Tuesday.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD falls to 1.1242 on Tuesday

"Caution is the watchword this morning, as investors' attention remains focused on the situation in Europe. The most recent polling shows a tightening in the referendum vote in the United Kingdom."
- The National Bank of Canada (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The European currency started the week higher at 1.1329 against the US Dollar, as the Greenbacks lost value. However, for the past two days, the pair declined, and at the end of Tuesday's session it was at 1.1242, which is right above the weekly pivot point and 100-day SMA at 1.1236. On Wednesday morning, the currency exchange rate rebounded against the support provided by the before mentioned levels, and, at the moment, the rate is at 1.1265. In the meantime, aggregate technical indicators predict no change for the pair today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are bearish on the currency pair, as 52% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 51% short.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD risks falling back under 1.46

"Some of the recent events have been favourable for Britain to remain in the EU, but it's still too close to call. We are advising our clients to go neutral into the vote, although we remain constructive. If "Remain" wins, we expect sterling to rise to $1.55."
- Credit Agricole (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
Upon reaching the 23-month resistance line on Tuesday, the Cable bounced back, erasing its intraday gains and ending the day with a 28-pip decline. The main resistance area is still represented by the down-trend, but the GBP/USD pair also appears to be struggling to climb over the 200-day SMA. As a result, the upside movement is likely to be capped around 1.4750, while the bearish development could extend towards the cluster circa 1.4515, formed by the monthly PP and the weekly R1. Moreover, technical indicators are in favour of the negative outcome, as they retain bearish signals in the daily timeframe.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders' sentiment remains bearish, now at 57% (previously 54%). Meanwhile, more and more pending orders in the 100-pip range are to sell the Pound ahead of the EU referendum, namely 85% today.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY traces back to 104.00

"If it breaks 100, Bank of Japan intervention is possible, but in order to intervene in the markets, you have to get agreement from the United States, and at this level -- 104, 105 -- I don't think the U.S. would agree."
- Eisuke Sakakibara, former Finance Ministry official (based on Market Watch)

Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar managed to appreciate against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, with risk-on sentiment returning to the markets. The weekly PP succeeded in limiting yesterday's gains and is expected to cause the USD/JPY to weaken today. The bottom target is the monthly S2 at 103.34, but the 104.00 major level might be difficult to pierce as well. According to technical studies, the pair is definitely to decline, as signals are distinctly bearish. On the other hand, Fed's Yellen could provide the Greenback with a boost, causing the weekly PP to give in and, thus, the Buck to retake the 105.00 psychological level.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 70% of traders are long the American Dollar, compared to 74% on Tuesday. The number of orders to purchase the US currency edged up from 56 to 66% over the day.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold declines to 1,267 on Wednesday

"In times of uncertainty gold thrives. A Brexit would create uncertainty about the euro zone economy, the stability of the EURO and would set a precedent for other countries to leave the EU."
- Zacks Investment Research (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The bullion fell sharply on Tuesday, as its worth declined from 1,289.46 at the start of trading to 1,268 at the end of Tuesday's trading session. With it, the metal moved below the monthly R1 at 1,278.62 and the weekly S1 at 1,274.76. At the moment, the yellow metal is trading at 1,267.60 against the US Dollar, and, if it continues its downfall, gold will likely move to the second weekly support at 1,251.97. However, aggregate technical indicators strongly forecast a surge for the commodity today, as not even one indicator predicts a downfall.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have decreased their bullish sentiment again, as it was at its peak of 70% on Friday. Today traders have open 57% short positions.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD remains bullish; faces down-trend at 1.1340

"There was a tremendous selling of the euro and sterling, and now we're seeing those being bought back."
- Chapdelaine & Co. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
Considering that both in May and in June EUR/USD confirmed the lower bound of the eight-month ascending channel, our multi-week outlook is bullish. The target is the August 2015 high. However, the pair is currently facing a recently established falling resistance line at 1.1340, which is likely to delay the recovery of the Euro. Nevertheless, the technical indicators are mostly pointing upwards, and there are plenty of supports, including the 100 and 200-day SMAs at 1.1240 and at 1.11 respectively, that should support the price.

Traders' Sentiment
The sentiment remains neutral, as we continue to observe indecision among the SWFX traders with respect to the European currency. At the moment, there are only 7 percentage point more bears than there are bulls.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD on the edge of breaking 23-month down-trend

"It feels like the market is priced more in line with the betting odds, with a modest relief rally likely to ensue on 'Remain' and a serious downward market correction for risk assets on a "Leave" vote."
- BNZ (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook
Ahead of the EU referendum the Pound managed to appreciate against the US Dollar for another day yesterday, but still unable to pierce the 23-month down-trend. Everything now depends on the ‘Brexit' poll results, but from the technical point of view, a ‘Brexit' is more probable, as the Cable would then reconfirm the down-trend. Consequently, a drop beyond the 1.45 mark could take place, unless demand around that area, represented by the weekly R1, the monthly PP, the 20 and the 55-day SMAs, is strong enough to limit the losses. On the other hand, ‘Bremain' outcome might lead to a strong rally, with the exchange rate even climbing over the 1.50 major level today.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment is bearish at 58%, whereas the portion of orders to purchase the Sterling takes up 57% of the market.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY remains on the back foot

"If it breaks 100, Bank of Japan intervention is possible, but in order to intervene in the markets, you have to get agreement from the United States, and at this level -- 104, 105 -- I don't."
- Eisuke Sakakibara, former Finance Ministry official (based on Market Watch)

Pair's Outlook
Yesterday the weekly pivot point prevented the US Dollar from outperforming the Japanese Yen, but the 104.00 was not reached. The weekly PP is expected to keep the USD/JPY pair at bay, but this time the 104.00 level might fail to keep the Greenback elevated. The closest support is located at 103.34, represented by the monthly S2, while the overall bottom target lies around 102.40, formed by the broadening falling wedge's support line and the Bollinger band. Meanwhile, technical indicators in all timeframes suggest the given pair is to sustain a loss, bolstering the outlook.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls remain strong, taking up 72% of the market today, compared to 71% on Wednesday. At the same time, there are 65% of all pending orders to acquire the US Dollar today.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold steps further away from 2015 high

"An "In" vote is seen as quickly unwinding gold's 5-percent gain in June, as appetite for risk rises and focus returns to the U.S. economy."
- CNBC

Pair's Outlook
Gold keeps moving away from the 2015 high, being unable to surpass this resistance neither in May nor this month. Nevertheless, we may expect more attempts of the bulls to push the price over the 1,307 dollar barrier, as indicators are pointing north in all three relevant time frames. The immediate resistance is at 1,280 dollar, and if it is broken, the rate will be in a good position to re-visit last year's maximum. Meanwhile, the extension of the decline is to meet a combination of the 55-day SMA and weekly S2 at 1,257/53.

Traders' Sentiment
The sentiment in the SWFX market remains bearish, although not as strong as five days ago, when the difference amounted to 33 percentage points. At the moment, 42% of open positions are long and 58% are short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD pierces through trend-line, 200-day SMA

"The Fed will want to see the impact from the U.K. vote before considering resuming rate rises so a July move looks very unlikely now."
- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
EUR/USD has already plummeted through most of the key supports, including the 200-day SMA, May low and the lower bound of the ascending channel. There is a possibility that the pair will be able to recover back above some of these supports today to preserve the long-term bullish outlook, but the chances are slim, considering that the 200-day SMA is at the 38.2% retracement level of today's sell-off, while the trend-line is between the 50 and 61.8% retracements. If the price stays below 1.11 today, our target will be the March low at 1.08 dollars.

Traders' Sentiment
Despite an enormous change in the value of the Euro, the sentiment was not subject to any change. Just like 24 hours ago, 46% of traders are long and 54% are short. There was only a slight drop in the share of sell orders, namely from 58 to 55%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD slips to historical low

"It [Brexit] adds weight to the camp that the Fed would be on hold. A July (hike) is definitely off the table."
- Mike Baele, U.S. Bank (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
Although the 23-month down-trend was pierced to the upside on Thursday, the ‘Brexit' poll results caused the Pound to plummet today, registering a 10% drop towards the lowest level in 30 years. At this point the question is whether the Sterling will be able to stabilise above the 1.36 major level or it will remain close to the 30-year low. There are some supports that could still limit the losses, but with the turmoil on the markets, the Cable's behaviour is too unpredictable. Nevertheless, a potential cluster is located around the 1.37 psychological level, formed by the weekly S3 and the 23.60% Fibo, while the overall bottom target is today's low of 1.3230.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 56% of traders are long the British Pound, while 64% of all pending orders are to acquire the Sterling.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY swims in murky waters

"All hell is breaking loose. The only surefire is you buy yen, you buy U.S. Treasuries, you buy gold, and you sit tight."
- Mizuho Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair also suffered from the aftermath of the ‘Brexit' vote, causing the exchange rate to drop to 99.00 yen. Nevertheless, for the moment the Greenback managed to retreat from this intraday low, while the prospects are for the pair to remain above the 102.00 level. The 102.00 mark is reinforced by the broadening falling wedge's support line, as well as the weekly S2, making that area hard to pierce even for such sharp news as the ‘Brexit'. Moreover, the Buck could even jump back above 103.00, as another demand area there might be sufficient to limit the losses.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 71% of all open positions are long, unchanged since Thursday, whereas 62% of all pending orders in the 100-pip range are to purchase the American Dollar.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold's rally capped by 1,330

"What we're seeing now is the market reacting with complete shock and bewilderment as the results unfold. Volumes are thin but we're seeing unprecedented moves in the financial markets."
- AFEX (based on CNBC)

Pair's Outlook
Gold spiked more than 100 dollars from the 100-day SMA at 1,250 amid the news from the UK, but the rally appears to have been stopped by the rising resistance trend-line. The trend-line has been able to contain rallies since last year's August, and is seen capable of halting today's advancement as well. Accordingly, we expect the price to close beneath 1,330 and then to retreat to a potentially strong demand area circa 1,307, where the 2015 highs is now joined by the 50% retracement of today's surge.

Traders' Sentiment
Regardless of the massive appreciation of gold, positioning in the SWFX market remains perfectly stable—42% of traders are bulls and 58% are bears. The percentage of buy orders, however, did jump from 62 to 77%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD slightly recovers on Monday after Brexit slump

"You have to keep asking yourself whether getting involved in GBP or EUR related pairs is really worth it from a risk management perspective."
- Vantage FX (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
After suffering huge losses on the Brexit vote results, the Euro has slightly recovered against the US Dollar on Monday, as the currency exchange rate moved from 1.1005 at the start of Monday's trading session, to 1.1040 by 7:00 GMT. However, it is still more than 300 pips below the pre-Brexit vote levels of around 1.1380. In addition to the grim side, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a decline for the pair today. In such case, it faces the monthly S1 at 1.0948.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are bearish on the pair, as 53% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are also 53% short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD continues to fall after Brexit

"The focus now falls on Europe, where Brexit could cause a domino effect of states wanting to leave the union. While this has already been talked about, the main concern for the currency market is European political uncertainty leading to monetary and fiscal policy paralysis."
- IG Securities (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The result of EU referendum polls caused the Sterling to plunge dramatically on Friday, reaching a 30-year low. However, as was expected, the Cable managed to stabilise above the 1.36 major level, but downward pressure remains. Moreover, the pair opened with a bearish gap today, and is likely to continue sliding down. The first support will be the current June low at 1.3230, namely Brexit's low, while the second support rests only around 1.2942, represented by the weekly S1. Furthermore, technical indicators are giving bearish signals in the weekly timeframe, suggesting the Pound is to edge lower by week's end.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment remains bearish at 53% (previously 54%), whereas 53% of all pending orders are to sell the British currency.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY attempts to begin recovery

"If the yen was to strengthen further, it likely won't be due to speculative forces alone. The so-called 'real money' Japanese investors could repatriate funds and add to yen strength."
- FPG Securities (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
Brexit also caused the US Dollar to weaken against most major peers, triggering the USD/JPY sell-off down to the 99.00 mark. Nevertheless, the pair managed to close trade just on top of the broadening falling wedge's support line, thus, we should now see the exchange rate rebound. However, risks of downside development persist, as technical indicators are giving bearish signals in all timeframes, while the pair opened with a small bearish gap today. In case bulls prevail the weekly PP is to limit the gains at 102.69, whereas the closest support is represented by the monthly S3 and the 50.0% Fibo circa 100.90.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls remain strong, as 72% of all open positions are now long (previously 71%). At the same time, the share of purchase orders inched down from 62 to 55%.