Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

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EUR/USD in a rebound on Friday morning

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"The EU can easily end up with more countries leaving -- especially the Netherlands -- that could have a referendum after the election. If that happens, I think the euro can weaken quite a lot more."
– Lars Mouland, KLP Kapitalforvaltning (based on Bloomberg)


Pair's Outlook
The common European currency appreciated on Friday morning against the Greenback, as the pair jumped above the 1.0550 level and aimed for the next resistance. The next resistance level is located at 1.0632, where the monthly S2 is located at. However, it might also occur that the currency exchange rate stops the rebound and begins another attempt to move through the combined support level of the 2015 low levels at 1.0520. Such a hypothesis is also supported by the daily aggregate technical indicators, which forecast a fall for today's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bullish, as 56% of open positions were long on Friday. In the meantime, pending commands were bearish, as 60% of trader set up orders were to sell.

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Anastasia DC

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GBP/USD in tight range between 1.24 and 1.25

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"GBP/USD continues to oscillate around the 1.2450 level while trading above the two month support line at 1.2351. This we still expect to hold."
- Commerzbank (based on FXStreet)


Pair's Outlook
The British currency barely managed to post gains against the US Dollar, but with the immediate support cluster proving its strength once again. The same cluster, represented by the 20-day SMA, the wedge's support line, the weekly and the monthly PPs, is likely to limit any losses today as well, but a bearish development still has some space to occur. Meanwhile, technical indicators keep giving mixed signals, unable to confirm any scenario. However, in case of a bullish outcome the exchange rate is likely to struggle at climbing over the 1.25 mark, as it kept the Cable at bay for almost two weeks now.

Traders' Sentiment
Although not as strong as yesterday, but market sentiment remains bullish at 63% (previously 75%). At the same time, the share of sell orders inched up from 58 to 60%.

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USD/JPY expected to remain within the channel's borders

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"The dollar/yen is an easy choice" to bet for the dollar's ascent.
- Seiichi Tanaka, head of FX spot trading at Mizuho Bank (based on 4-traders)


Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair behaved in accordance with expectations on Thursday, having successfully retaken the 113.00 level and leaving the immediate resistance area intact. Despite technical indicators retaining bullish signals, the Buck now is under higher risk of weakening against the Japanese currency, as the pair still faces a rather strong resistance, now formed by the weekly R2 and the 23.60% Fibo. Even if bulls manage to push the Greenback higher, a surge beyond the ascending channel's resistance line at 114.44 is unlikely. The base case scenario is a decline up to 100 pips, as a slump further would imply a downside breach of the channel pattern.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 70% of traders are short the US Dollar, compared to 67% on Thursday. Meanwhile, 58% of all pending orders are to sell the Buck.

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Anastasia DC

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Gold below level of significance near 1.180

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"The strong US dollar is driving global currency markets, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to pursue a 25 basis points hike at December's meeting."
– London Capital Group (based on investing.com)


Pair's Outlook
On early Friday morning the yellow metal fluctuated slightly lower during the first hours of trading. However, the most notable fact is that the bullion began the session firmly below the weekly S2, which is located at 1,184.22. Previously, on Thursday the level of significance provided enough support to keep the rate up after the 2.06% fall, which occurred during Wednesday's trading session. The outlook for the metal is simple – a continuation of the fall, as the next support levels is down below at 1,165.54.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain bullish on the metal, as 58% of open positions were long Friday morning. Meanwhile, trader set up orders remained unchanged, compared to Thursday, as 53% of pending commands were to buy.

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EUR/USD surges past 1.0650 mark

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"We think the EU will break and that Italy will leave the euro."
– Jim Smigiel, SEI Investments Co. (based on Bloomberg)


Pair's Outlook
The common European currency began the week against the US Dollar higher than the previous close by 18 pips, as the currency exchange rate ended Friday's trading at 1.0590 and began Monday's session at 1.0609. Afterwards, during the first hours of the session the pair began to surge and reached the newly calculated first weekly resistance level at 1.0659. It is likely that the rate will bounce off this level and move slightly lower. However, in such case the rate would soon find support in the monthly S2 at 1.0632.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders did not change their bullish outlook on the pair, as 56% of open positions remained long on Monday. Meanwhile, trader pending commands were bearish, as 59% of set up orders were to sell the Euro.

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Anastasia DC

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GBP/USD to retake 1.25

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"For Cable (sterling/dollar) you've got a double-whammy of higher US yields plus the triggering of Article 50 - that brings about another layer of uncertainty."
- ING (based on Business Recorder)


Pair's Outlook
Last week was a good one for the Cable, as it continued its recovery after a sharp slump in the beginning of October. However, the 1.25 major level remained unconquered, but the GBP/USD currency pair has the potential to reclaim this area today. Technical indicators support this possibility, as they are now giving distinctly bullish signals. Meanwhile, the 55-day SMA, the weekly R1 and the Bollinger band form resistance around 1.26, where the Sterling is likely to struggle at posting more gains. Despite bullish signs, downside risks also persist, as the pair has been trading within the borders of a broadening rising wedge pattern for nearly two months now.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls retreated again, as 61% of traders are now long the Pound (previously 63%). The share of sell orders inched up from 60 to 61%.

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USD/JPY on the edge of breaking the three-week channel pattern

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"While there is no question that the dollar is getting ahead of reality and as tempting as it may be to pick a top, the latest pullback is small which means the better trade should be buying the dollar's dips until Fed Chair Janet Yellen tells us otherwise."
- BK Asset Management (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar remained relatively unchanged against the Japanese Yen on Friday, although the ascending channel's support line was put to the test that day. Today the pair opened with a small bearish gap, also with risk-aversion kicking in, causing the Buck to erase most of last week's losses. However, technical studies keep emitting bullish signals, suggesting that the USD/JPY pair still has a chance to recover from intraday losses and preserve the channel pattern. On the other hand, if demand at 112.48, namely the weekly PP, fails to trigger a rebound, then the cluster circa 111.00 will be the main target.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 62% of traders with a negative outlook towards the Greenback today, compared to 70% on Friday. At the same time, the portion of buy orders edged slightly up, namely from 42 to 46%.

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Anastasia DC

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Gold remains below 1,200 on Monday

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"There has been some heavy selling over the past couple of weeks, so there may be a touch of technical-based buying."
– Daniel Hynes, ANZ (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal surged on Monday morning, as it managed to surge past the newly calculated pivot point and gain 1% during the move. However, as it approached the 1,200 mark it was most likely that the bullion was set to bounce off the resistance level and continue its downward path. In addition, the metal remained in the medium term descending channel patter during the recent move. Moreover, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a fall for gold by the end of the day.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their combined opinion regarding the yellow metal, as, just as on Friday, 58% of open trader positions were long on Monday morning. However, trader set up orders had become more bullish on Monday, as 59% of pending commands were to but, compared to 53% on Friday morning.

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Anastasia DC

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EUR/USD in limbo near 1.06

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"Brexit is going to be a sideshow to the problems of Europe that are becoming more and more evident."
– Jim Mellon, Burnbrae Group (based on Bloomberg)


Pair's Outlook
On Tuesday morning the common European currency fluctuated around the 1.06 level against the US Dollar. The currency exchange rate had moved lower and found support in the weekly PP at 1.0589. However, the pair did not attempt to break through the resistance at 1.0632, where the monthly S2 is located at. In the meantime, the rate remains inside the descending channel pattern, in which it entered on November 13. The pair has not confirmed the pair's upper trend line, which means that the rate might continue to trade flat until the end of this week.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have slightly decreased their bullish outlook, as 55% of open positions were long on Tuesday, compared to 56% on Monday. Meanwhile, 63% of trader set up orders are to sell the pair.

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Anastasia DC

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GBP/USD puts 1.24 to the test again

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"I wouldn't say sterling is particularly on the radar at the moment, that might happen next week when we have the supreme court appeal. M4 foreign buying of UK gilts tomorrow may also be important."
- BAML (based on Business Recorder)


Pair's Outlook
In spite of bullish signs the Cable started off with a rather sharp decline of 63 pips, having also put the two-month up-trend to the test yesterday. Technical studies keep suggesting the GBP/USD pair is to edge higher, this time with no room for a decline, as trade opened just in front of the up-trend. Moreover, this support line is also reinforced by the monthly PP and the weekly S1, making demand much stronger. The closest resistance, however, is unlikely to limit the gains if those occur, but downside risks are still present, due to the Cable located within the borders of a rising wedge pattern, which usually end with downside breakouts.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment remains bullish, now at 62%, compared to 61% on Monday. The portion of sell orders inched up again, from 61 to 64%.

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Anastasia DC

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USD/JPY attempts to return above 112.00

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"It is true that [the dollar's] upside momentum is receding for now. But the dollar may head toward ¥115-¥120 over the mid-term."
- Merrill Lynch Japan Securities (based on Market Watch)


Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar took a breath on Monday, allowing the Japanese Yen to trim some losses. Nevertheless, it appears that the Greenback is back on track today and is ready to outperform the Yen once more. Technical indicators are also in favour of a rally, however, since the three-week ascending channel pattern was broken yesterday, risks of the bearish momentum continuing are still present. With a number of US fundamental data to drive the markets this week, the USD/JPY pair could experience serious volatility in either direction. In case bears take over today, the 111.00 mark is expected to hold, being bolstered by the weekly S1 and the monthly R3, while the ceiling is not determined.

Traders' Sentiment
Bears gave in again today, as 58% of all open positions are short (previously 62%). The share of buy orders surged from 46 to 48%.

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Gold stopped by resistance

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"Large speculators and traders decreased their net positions in the gold futures markets last week for a second week in a row and to the lowest level since March."
– Zachary Storella, CountingPips (based on investing.com)


Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal remained flat at the weekly PP, which is located at 1,191.86, on Tuesday morning. Previously, on Monday the commodity price surged from 1,182.80 to 1,193.29 by the end of the session, as it was forecasted before. It is most likely that the bullion will remain squeezed in between the weekly PP and the resistance cluster above it at 1,200 until the upper trend line of the descending channel forces it lower. Meanwhile, daily aggregate technical indicators support the hypothesis of a fall.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX market sentiment remained unchanged for the third consecutive session on Tuesday, as 58% of open positions were long. Meanwhile, pending commands were bullish, as 58% of trader set up orders were to buy.

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EUR/USD slightly above 1.06 mark

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"Draghi has hit the nail on the head: We have a moderate recovery, it's been pretty steady despite market turbulence."
– Alexander Koch, Raiffeisen Schweiz (based on Bloomberg)


Pair's Outlook
On early Wednesday morning the common European currency retreated after encountering resistance against the US Dollar. The currency exchange rate hit the first weekly resistance level at 1.0659 and began to retreat until it fell to the second monthly support level at 1.0632, which hindered the fall. However, it is most likely that the Euro will continue its retreat throughout Wednesday's trading session. Previously, during Tuesday's trading session the currency pair fluctuated in a range from 1.0565 to 1.0653.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders once more slightly decreased their bullish outlook, as 54% of open positions were long on Wednesday, compared to 55% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, pending commands were bullish, as 60% of trader set up orders were to sell the Euro.

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GBP/USD is wary of climbing over 1.25

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"We anticipate several days of consolidation above last week's low at 1.2304."
- Commerzbank (based on PoundSterlingLive)


Pair's Outlook
Even a strong US GDP reading was insufficient for the Buck to post gains against the British Pound yesterday, while the wedge's trend-line successfully caused the Cable to rebound. Nevertheless, the Sterling still failed to maintain trade above the 1.25 mark, as psychological resistance there remains strong. As a result, the GBP/USD pair could struggle to appreciate today, even though technical indicators keep giving distinctly bullish signs. However, the given pair is still supported by the 20-day SMA, the weekly PP and the wedge's lower trend-line, which is expected to remain intact.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 60% of traders with a positive outlook towards the Pound today, compared to 62% yesterday. At the same time, the portion of orders to sell the Cable decreased from 64 to 56%.

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Anastasia DC

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USD/JPY attempts to erase Monday's losses

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"OPEC meeting or not, an adjustment phase in the dollar is inevitable considering the pace and scope of its recent rise."
- SMBC Nikko Securities (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
Although the US Dollar appreciated against the Yen on Tuesday, the pair surprisingly closed below the immediate resistance, namely the weekly pivot point. However, the given supply area is unlikely to manage to keep the Buck from edging higher for the second day in a row, unless fundamental data puts more pressure on the American Dollar. In case bulls prevail, the 113.50 level is seen as the intraday ceiling, whereas a bearish development could extend as far as the 111.00 major level, where the weekly S1 coincides with the monthly R3. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain in favour of the positive outcome.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 59% of all open positions are short (previously 58%). At the same time, there are 51% of all pending orders to purchase the US currency.

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Anastasia DC

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Gold trades below weekly PP

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"In my view, the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has clearly strengthened since our previous meeting earlier this month."
- Jerome H. Powell, FOMC


Pair's Outlook
On Wednesday morning the yellow metal traded below the weekly pivot point, which is located at 1,191.86. The bullion began the day by continuing an attempt to break through the resistance put up by the weekly PP. However, it seems highly unlikely that it will manage to score notable gains during today's session, as the general downward trend still persists. It is most likely that the bullion will remain flat by the end of the day, as it is being squeezed in by trend lines from both sides. Such a hypothesis is also confirmed by the calculated daily aggregate technical indicators.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders mark their fourth consecutive session without changes in their sentiment regarding the bullion, as 58% of open positions remain long. Meanwhile, 60% trader set up orders are to buy the metal.

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Anastasia DC

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EUR/USD finds support on Thursday

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"Draghi, speaking in Madrid, renewed his call for euro-area governments not to miss the "window of opportunity" provided by low interest rates to make economic adjustments."
– Bloomberg


Pair's Outlook
The common European currency surged on Thursday morning against the US Dollar, as the pair began the rate just at the weekly pivot point at 1.0589. The pivot point provided enough support to propel the rate higher. However, previously during Wednesday's trading the currency exchange rate dropped to the 1.0552 mark, from where the initial rebound began. It is most likely that the rate will move upwards and bounce off resistance at 1.0650, where the medium scale pattern's upper trend line is located at. Afterwards the rate will continue its way down.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their opinion, as 54% of open positions remain long. Meanwhile, trader set up orders are bearish, as 62% of pending commands are to sell the Euro.

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Anastasia DC

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GBP/USD begins marching forward

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"Uncertainty over the size of the negative long-run productivity shock (stemming from a lack of economic openness) means that we are cautious about calling for GBP upside until all the potential ‘bad news' is in the price."
- ING (based on PoundSterlingLive)


Pair's Outlook
Yesterday the British currency one again successfully outperformed the US Dollar, having received a sufficient boost from a retest of the wedge's support line. Today even if bears manage to take the upper hand, losses are unlikely to exceed 70 pips, as a drop lower would imply the breach of the two-month up-trend, which is still reinforced by the 20-day SMA, the weekly and the monthly PPs. Moreover, technical indicators are in favour of the positive outcome, and now with the 1.25 threshold broken, the Cable has the potential to climb higher. At the moment the 1.26 level is the target, while the weekly R1 and the Bollinger band circa 1.2580 form the only solid resistance on the way.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish market sentiment remains unchanged at 60%, while the share of sell orders added 2% points, having risen to 58%.

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Anastasia DC

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Gold rebounds after touching 1,163 mark

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"Inflation as well as pace of interest rate hike expectations among the investors are increasing along with the opportunity cost of holding gold."
– Mark To, Fung Financial Group (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
The fall of the yellow metal, which began on Wednesday, stopped on Thursday morning, as the bullion reached a ten month low level by touching the weekly S1 at 1,162.76. The move was expected, as the metal faced no other level of support up to the before mentioned first weekly support. As a result of the rebound, gold is most likely to surge up to levels just below the 1,190 mark before it continues its downward path in accordance with the descending channel pattern.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX trader sentiment no longer stagnated on Thursday, as trader open long positions increased to 59%, compared to 58% during the previous consecutive four sessions. Meanwhile, trader set up orders remain bullish, 57% of pending commands were set up to buy the metal. Although, it is a 3% decrease from Wednesday's 60%.

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Anastasia DC

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USD/JPY takes a breath after Wednesday's surge

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"I think it is just a matter of time that the dollar will test 115 yen after Mnuchin was silent about the dollar's strength."
- Mizuho Securities (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook
Amid strong US fundamental figures on Wednesday, the American Dollar gained more than 200 pips against the Japanese Yen, thus, climbed over the 23.60% Fibo level, which caused the pair to exit its ascending channel pattern. The Buck now has a chance to not only retake the 115.00 level, but even the 116.00 mark, despite the weekly R2 and the Bollinger band forming relatively strong resistance there. However, the USD/JPY pair is first required to pierce the weekly R1 at 114.70, which appears to be causing setbacks in the Greenback's bullish trend. As a result, a small corrective decline is possible today, but with the 113.00 mark remaining intact.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 61% of traders with a negative outlook towards the US Dollar. Meanwhile, 60% of all pending orders are to sell the US Dollar.

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