"I believe that sterling should eventually go lower. How much lower though? I don't think we will get below the 1.15- 1.18 level we saw a few days ago in the near-term."
- Brian Tomlinson Allianz senior fixed-income portfolio manager (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
Monday ended with the British currency falling against the US Dollar, crossing the 1.24 level. Technical studies are now giving bearish signals, suggesting that another decline is due. The nearest level to limit the losses is located only at 1.2254, represented by the monthly S3, but the 1.23 major level should also be considered as a potential psychological support. A failure to rebound after reaching the monthly S3 is likely to set the Cable on the bearish path until Friday's sudden plunge is reached, namely the 1.1950 mark.
Traders' Sentiment
Bulls keep taking up 61% of the market today, while the share of sell orders also remains mostly unchanged, as there are now 63% of them , compared to 65% on Monday.
"The risk of a short-term top has increased considerably and unless USD can move and stay above 103.80 within these 1 to 2 days, a break below 102.70 would not be surprising."
- UOB (based on FXStreet)
Pair's Outlook
As was anticipated, the immediate resistance cluster around 103.75 managed to prevent the USD/JPY currency pair from edging higher. Nevertheless, the Greenback is in for another rally against the Yen today, but with the 104.00 level remaining a strong psychological resistance. The pair could still encounter resistance even if the 104.00 level is retaken, as a relatively strong supply area rests around 104.34, formed by the Bollinger band and the weekly R1. At the same time, the bottom floor is represented by the weekly pivot point at 102.78.
Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment remains slightly bullish, as 58% of traders hold long positions today. Meanwhile, all pending orders are equally divided between the buy and the sell ones.
"Prices have likely been weighed by a combination of factors, including the improved sentiment for a December Fed hike and the surge in dollar strength."
– IG Asia Pte. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
After slightly surging for the past two trading sessions the yellow metal had slightly depreciated on Tuesday morning. The metal struggles to score gains, as the 200-day SMA is just above it, with the metal around 1,257 level and the SMA around 1,261. Although, the bullion might go either way by the end of the day, as in the case of a breakthrough the metal will face an open way up to the level of 1,272, where the weekly PP and monthly S2 are located at. Secondly, the metal might move lower, if it passes the 1,250 psychological level.
Traders' Sentiment
Trader sentiment remains unchanged, as 56% of them have open long positions. In the meantime, set up orders are 61% to buy the metal.
"Weakness below 1.1085 would suggest that the next move is lower towards at least the Brexit low at 1.0912."
- Jamie Saettele, CMT (based on Daily FX)
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency traded below the 1.1050 level against the Greenback on Wednesday, as it had found resistance in the second weekly support level at 1.1043. Previously, as the currency exchange rate slowly moved through the first weekly and monthly support at 1.1121 and 1.1133, it plummeted down to the 1.1043, as soon as the before mentioned support levels were passed. It is most likely that the currency pair will move lower to mark new low levels, as it nears the Brexit low level.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are almost neutral on the pair, as 51% of open positions are short on Wednesday. In the meantime, pending commands are 59% to sell the Euro.
"The pound's weakness will not persist forever. Beneficial impact from a weaker pound on the U.K. economy is hard to ignore." - Masashi Murata, BBH (based on Market Watch)
Pair's Outlook
Another hard sell-off of more than 200 pips occurred yesterday, causing the Cable to fall towards the 1.21 major level. The Pound appears to have regained the bullish momentum on the news of a much softer ‘Brexit' scenario. However, the Sterling faces a rather strong resistance on its path around 1.2240, represented by the Bollinger band and the monthly S3, which should prevent the pair from climbing back over the 1.23 level. On the other hand, today's FOMC Minutes could provide sufficient impetus for the 1.23 mark to be reclaimed.
Traders' Sentiment
For two weeks now market sentiment remains bullish, now taking up 63% of the market (previously 61%). Meanwhile, the number of sell orders lost two percentage points, having fallen to a total of 61%.
"The U.S. dollar's grind higher continues, clearly linked to changing Fed rate hike expectations. A little over three weeks ago, we had expectations of a December rate hike at under 50 percent, and now we're pushing towards 70 percent."
- Royal Bank of Canada (based on Business Recorder)
Pair's Outlook
For the second day this week the USD/JPY currency pair remained relatively flat, due to lack of a market mover. Today the Buck is located in a tight range between the 100-day SMA from the downside and the monthly R1 from the upside; however, trade is unlikely to remain within these borders. The FOMC Meeting Minutes are expected to cause volatility and, according to technical indicators, push the Greenback higher, with a chance to retake the 104.00 psychological level. On the other hand, we remain wary of the Fed being hawkish, thus, the weekly PP at 102.78 is the main intraday target.
Traders' Sentiment
Today 57% of traders have a positive outlook towards the US Dollar, compared to 58% on Tuesday. At the same time, the share of buy orders declined from 50 to only 49%.
"Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans's remarks Tuesday weakened the case for owning non-interest bearing bullion."
– based on Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
On Wednesday morning the yellow metal had once more found support in the psychological level of 1,250 and rebounded. Previously, by the end of Tuesday's trading session the bullion had failed to break through the resistance put up by the 200-day SMA, which not is located at 1,262.22. Afterwards, the commodity fell and ended the day's trading session almost exactly at the 1,250 mark. As the rebound is in motion, it is most likely that the Wednesday's trading session will end higher, as one more attempt at the SMA is in the making.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders continued to slowly increase their long positions, as on Wednesday 57% of open positions were bullish. In the meantime, set up orders are 60% to by the metal.
"The dollar reached the highest level since March as minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed several policy makers said a rate increase was needed "relatively soon.""
– based on Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency slightly rebounded against the US Dollar on Thursday morning, as the currency exchange rate encountered the support of a channel down pattern. Previously, the currency pair moved through a support cluster comprised of the weekly and monthly S2s at 1.1043 and 1.1026. As at the moment the previous support cluster is providing resistance, it is most unlikely that the currency exchange rate will surge. Nevertheless, the Euro attempted to regain some of the losses and break through the resistance.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders have picked a side and become bullish, as 54% of open positions are long on Thursday. In the meantime, pending commands remain short, as 57% of set up orders are to sell.
"China trade data was weak, which seems to have increased risk aversion, that explains the yen strength. The weak dollar is probably a combination of the Fed minutes not adding anything new, and yen strength brought about from weaker sentiment."
- St. George Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
The American Dollar appreciated against the Japanese Yen on Wednesday, beating expectations and easily climbing over the 104.00 level. The second resistance area managed to contain yesterday's volatility, which also caused the USD/JPY pair to make a U-turn. Meanwhile, the monthly R1 and the 100-day SMA form immediate support around 103.50, which should prevent the pair from edging lower if bears remain dominant. Technical indicators are unable to confirm this outlook, as they are giving bullish signals in the daily timeframe, suggesting that a close above 104.00 is still possible.
Traders' Sentiment
For the second day in a row 57% of all open positions are long, whereas the portion of orders to sell the US Dollar increased from 51 to 57%.
"Whether the latest bull phase by the dollar is real or not depends on how the various U.S. asset markets can co-exist with the prospects of a Fed hike."
- IG Securities (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The Cable retreated from its intraday high after the FOMC Meeting Minutes were released yesterday, but still managed to reclaim the 1.22 level. Nevertheless, technical indicators are now giving bearish signals, implying that the Pound is to weaken further. However, price is expected to remain above 1.21, with the Bollinger band acting as the closest support today. The main target is still the 1.1950 level, the lowest level in more than 30 years, which is also bolstered by the weekly S1. This key support area is expected to trigger a rally, causing the Pound to eventually to climb back towards 1.24.
Traders' Sentiment
There are 65% of traders holding long positions today (previously 63%), while 60% of all pending orders are to sell the Sterling (down from 61%).
"Gold prices rose on Thursday as the U.S. dollar pared early gains and equities plunged on Chinese trade data that stoked concerns about the health of the world's No.2 economy."
– based on Reuters
Pair's Outlook
From a technical perspective the yellow metal is continuing yesterday's rebound from the 1,250 psychological level. However, the resistance put up by the 200-day SMA has not been broken. Actually, the metal did not even properly touch during Wednesday's trading session. Although, the SMA kept moving northward, and with it additional room for the bullion was freed up, which means that there will still be some minor gains, before gold starts battling the SMA. It is highly possible that after the encounter the yellow metal will move south.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their stance on the bullion, as 57% of open positions remained long on Thursday morning. In the meantime, pending commands have also almost remained unchanged, as 61% of set up orders were to buy.
"The euro is poised to rally against the dollar as speculation that the European Central Bank is considering tapering its bond-buying pushes the currency toward its fair value, according to UBS Group AG."
– based on Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency depreciated against the Greenback on early Friday morning, as the currency exchange rate had dropped below the support provided by the weekly S2 at 1.1043. Previously, on Thursday the currency pair retreated to the third weekly support at 1.0981, and it rebounded before even touching it. In the aftermath the Euro began to climb and recoup some of its previous losses against the US Dollar, as the rate ended Thursday's trading session at 1.1055. Due to the fact that the rate rebounded at a possible trend line of a channel down pattern, it might be positioned for a surge.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain slightly bullish on the pair, as 53% of open positions are long. In the meantime, pending commands are 59% to sell the Euro.
"Gold prices edged lower in Asian trade on Friday as stocks firmed and the U.S. dollar rose on expectations the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by year-end."
– based on Reuters
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal threaded lower on Friday morning, as it was in the continuation of the bounce off from a resistance, which occurred in the second half of Thursday's trading session. Previously, as forecasted, the bullion moved up to the 200-day SMA and bounced off it due to the resistance it has been providing in the past five trading sessions. Afterwards, the metal moved lower and it continues the move on Friday. However, it seems that a new support level has shown itself, which is propping the metal higher and higher.
Traders' Sentiment
Trader open positions and set up orders remain unchanged on Friday. Open positions are 57% long, and set up orders are 61% to buy.
"Traders prepare for hints from the European Central Bank about the future direction of its asset-purchase program."
– based on Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency scored minor gains against the Greenback on Monday morning. However, previously the pair fell below the 1.10 mark by the end of Friday's trading session, as the currency exchange rate ended the week's trading at 1.0985, compared to the opening price of 1.1055. It is most likely that the rate will continue its way down, as the next notable support level is at 1.0929, where the third monthly support level is located at. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast no change for the pair by the end of today's session.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain slightly bullish, as 54% of open positions are long on Monday. In the meantime, pending commands are 60% to sell the Euro.
"GBP/USD has recently seen a massive spike lower to reach the 1.1938 level. The currency pair briefly dipped to 1.2090 on October 11. It needs to remain above this level for our anticipated small recovery rally to ensue."
- Commerzbank (based on FXStreet)
Pair's Outlook
The monthly S3 appeared to be too difficult to overcome, causing the Sterling to fall 65 pips at the end of the previous week. The Cable remains stuck in a tight range around the 1.22 major level, with the 1.21 mark acting as the bottom floor and the weekly S3 at 1.2254 as the ceiling, which is now also reinforced by the weekly pivot point. The pair keeps gravitating towards the 1.22 level, thus, a small rally today is the anticipated outcome. However, technical indicators retain mixed signals, therefore, a possibility of an approximately 35-pip decline exists.
Traders' Sentiment
Today 64% of traders are long the British Pound, in comparison to 63% on Friday. Meanwhile, the portion of orders to sell the Sterling inched up from 54 to 56%.
"I feel that the dollar shows a sign to hit the bottom against the yen."
- Shusuke Yamada, chief FX strategist at Merrill Lynch Securities (based on Market Watch)
Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar managed to overcome the Japanese Yen again on Friday, climbing back above the 104.00 major level. Technical studies once again suggest the pair is to keep edging higher, with the nearest area to limit the gains located only around the 105.00 major level, represented by the weekly R1 and the Bollinger band. A return under 104.00 seems doubtful, as a relatively strong demand area rests just under that mark, which is likely to prevent the USD/JPY pair from falling deeper down. Furthermore, the Greenback has been outperforming the Yen for three weeks straight now, and no event is expected to break this trend today.
Traders' Sentiment
The share of bulls and bears barely changed over the weekend, as they now take up 63% and 37% of the market, respectively. At the same time, the portion of orders to buy the Buck increased from 47 to 51%.
"Gold prices edged up slightly on Monday as the U.S. dollar gave up some gains and bargain hunters used dips to accumulate the precious metal."
– based on Reuters
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal had once more rebounded against the 1,250 support level on Monday morning, as the metal had fallen to the support level once more, erasing all of the previous week's minor gains. However, with the start of a new week, the metal seems to be set to trade in a narrow range during this week, as the newly formed levels of significance are located close by one to another. Moreover, weekly aggregate technical indicators forecast no change in the price of the commodity by the end of the week.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remained bullish on gold on Monday, as 58% of open positions were long. In the meantime, pending commands were unchanged, as 61% of set up orders were to buy.
"The key caveat is straightforward—the EUR has thus far remained above key support near seven-month lows of $1.09."
– based on Daily FX
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency moved higher against the Greenback on Tuesday morning, as the currency exchange rate attempted to even break through the resistance put up by the second monthly support level at 1.1026. Previously, the currency pair traded below the 1.10 mark. However, as the outlook seemed unclear, the currency pair rebounded and ended Monday's trading session one pip above the 1.10 level. Due to this rebound, the short term outlook for the pair is a surge for the rest of the week. However, in the long term the rate is still set to fall.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain slightly bullish on the pair, as 53% of open positions are long. In the meantime, pending commands remain short, as 58% of set up orders are to sell.
"GBP/USD has recently seen a massive spike lower to reach the 1.1938 level. The currency pair briefly dipped to 1.2090 on October 11. It needs to remain above this level for our anticipated small recovery rally to ensue."
- Commerzbank (based on FXStreet)
Pair's Outlook
Monday ended with the Cable edging only 27 pips higher, but with risks still skewed to the downside. The pair remains located under a strong resistance area, represented by the weekly PP and the monthly S3, which together are likely to cause the exchange rate move lower. Even though technical indicators support this scenario, we should not rule out the possibility of an approximately 50-pip rally, thus, another retest of the immediate resistance area. The base case scenario, however, is a drop towards the 1.21 major level, unless fundamental data turns the odds in Sterling's favour, in which case the Pound will have the potential to reclaim 1.23 level.
Traders' Sentiment
Today 66% of traders hold long positions (previously 64%), whereas the number of sell orders surged once again, namely from 56 to 61%.
"The market is starting to take a little bit of profits on the long US dollar trade that has been doing pretty well over the last couple of weeks."
- TD Securities (based on The Business Times)
Pair's Outlook
Although the US Dollar edged lower against the Yen on Monday, the three-week bullish trend remained intact. A rally is expected today, as it would reconfirm the trend for the time being. The USD/JPY pair also opened just on top of a relatively strong support area, formed by the weekly PP and the monthly R1, which demand is sufficient to cause a recovery after yesterday's loss. Moreover, technical indicators keep giving bullish signals in the daily timeframe, also suggesting a rally is due. In this case specifically the Bollinger bands remain in favour of the bullish trend, but the nearest resistance around the 105.00 psychological level is likely to remain out of reach.
Traders' Sentiment
There are 62% of all open positions being long today (previously 63%), while the share of buy orders inched up from 51 to 53%.
