"Focus now turns to the services PMI, due out on Monday. We expect the services print to follow suit and rise, perhaps enough to enter the expansionary territory, something that could keep sterling supported." - IronFx Global (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The Cable is now well-supported both from the UK and US sides, meaning we may expect an even stronger Pound in the near future. Technically, however, the rally is not as apparent as it is from the fundamental perspective. The pair is facing a notable resistance level at 1.3320, represented by the 23.6% retracement level from the Jun 23-Jul 5 sell-off. At the same time, long-term Sterling appreciation is not supported by the indicators, of which only daily ones suggest more expensive UK currency. Nevertheless, our current target is 1.3385/70.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders are selling the Sterling more than they are buying the currency—the share of shorts increased from 58 to 60%. And they plan to sell even more if the recovery continues, as the percentage of sell orders jumped from 51 to 63%.
"Before the next BoJ meeting on Sep 21 the Yen may weaken." - JPMorgan (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
The current setup is bullish for USD/JPY, as the currency pair has broken out of the descending channel that had been guiding the price lower since the end of 2015. However, we would like to wait for a confirmation of support at 103 yen before claiming that Dollar is going to appreciate, as fundamentals have not been supportive of USD/JPY rally lately. Once 103 is established as a solid demand area, our target will be the 100-day SMA at 105.30, followed by the July high at 107.50. Alternatively, the rate will likely slide down to 100 yen.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders have become somewhat less bullish the US Dollar, but long positions still dominate the market with a 64% share. In the meantime, advantage of sell orders over the buy ones was reduced from 14 percentage points to naught.
"While we cut off our numbers as of close on August 30, 2016, we can't help but notice that gold appears to now be attempting to break under $1,310, a potential breakdown zone that could see gold fall to $1,250." – David Chapman, financial industry veteran, (based on investing.com)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal is moving lower on Friday morning, as it opened Friday's trading session at 1,314.61 and started moving lower after a slight bounced above the 1,315 level. Previously, on Thursday the metal began to surge midday and ended the day's trading session above the first weekly support level of 1,310.87, which had provided resistance to the bullion. At the moment, gold faces no real resistance up to the level of 1,326.43, where the monthly PP is located at. Due to that it is possible that the metal will move to the weekly S1 and rebound against it.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders are short on the metal, as 52% of open positions are bearish on Friday. In the meantime, pending commands are 62% to buy the metal.
"If the ECB extends quantitative easing -- as most economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict -- policy makers may have to reconsider what they can buy." - based on Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency traded almost flat on Tuesday morning against the US Dollar. Previously, the currency exchange rate moved lower on Monday, as it moved out of the channel upward pattern, which it started forming in the aftermath of Brexit. Although, it is likely that the rate will surge during today's trading session, as the 55 and 200-day simple moving averages are providing support just below it at 1.1141 and 1.1131. However, the rate would then be stopped by the resistance cluster located above from 1.1176 to 1.1190.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish on the pair, as 59% of open positions remain short on Tuesday. In the meantime, pending commands are 57% to sell.
"Sterling should remain supported as BoE rate expectations and the gilt curve experience a significant revaluation." - Morgan Stanley (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The currency pair is lacking bullish momentum near resistance represented by the 23.60% retracement of the Jun 23—Jul 5 sell-off despite fundamentally strong Pound. Nevertheless, the price managed to fetch our target 1.3385/70 (monthly R1 and August maximum) yesterday. There is now a good possibility the bears will take over in the near term, but the losses are expected to be limited by a strong support at 1.3237/25, where the recently broken trendline is reinforced by the 55-day SMA and weekly pivot point.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders keep selling the British Pound, and the share of shorts has already reached 62%, up from 60% recorded 24 hours ago. At the same time, the percentage of sell orders is growing as well. It increased from 63 to 64%.
"The BOJ should wait for the Fed. The present focus of attention is on the U.S. exit policy." - Koichi Hamada, economic adviser to PM (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
The setup has become even more bullish for USD/JPY than it was yesterday, as the currency pair has confirmed the broken trendline, meaning the US Dollar is willing to keep advancing north. The first target is the latest September 2 high, but the price should have no trouble rising towards the weekly and monthly R1s at 104.94/79, considering the daily technical indicators. Additional resistance is at 105.29, represented by the 100-day SMA, while support is at 103.00/102.81, and it may not be long before this demand area comes into play, as weekly indicators are mostly giving ‘sell' signals.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX sentiment remains bullish, with 64% of traders expecting the Greenback to appreciate. Meanwhile, orders are almost evenly distributed between the buy (48%) and sell (52%) ones.
"The U.S. Labor Day holiday kept volumes subdued on Monday, but new U.S. data releases and any speeches from Fed officials will be watched closely for clues to the timing of any rate moves." - base don Reuters
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal continues to struggle with the monthly PP at 1,326.43 for the third consecutive session on Tuesday, as the commodity price keep reaching above it and retreating afterwards. However, the rate already managed to have a close above the resistance on Monday, as the session ended at 1,326.83, and a surge would be consistent with the channel upward pattern, which the metal has formed in the past four trading sessions. Although, daily aggregate technical indicators do not support a surge of the bullion during today's session.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain slightly bearish regarding gold, as 53% of open positions are short on Tuesday morning. In the meantime, pending commands are 64% to buy, which means that the surge is likely to continue.
"Volatility hasn't been this low in the days preceding a ECB meeting since the start of quantitative easing in 2015, lending cover for the ECB president should he choose to leave policy mostly alone, as economists forecast." – based on Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
The Common European currency is trading near the opening price against the US Dollar on Wednesday morning. However, it did fall to the weekly R1 at 1.1230 and rebounded against it during the night to continue a surge, which began on Tuesday. Previously, the currency exchange rate jumped on Tuesday and broke through a strong resistance cluster from 1.1176 to 1.1230. Afterwards, the pair reached above the 1.1250 level, where it ended the day's trading session. As the rate faces no resistance up to the level of 1.1305, it is most likely set to surge during today's trading.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders have increased their bearish sentiment by 2%, as open short positions are 61% of the total SWFX positions. In the meantime, pending commands are almost neutral, as 51% orders are to sell.
"Sterling may squeeze up a bit more but many investors will see this a chance to sell. It would be a surprise if it managed to get through $1.35 before falling again." - State Street Global Advisors (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
Despite our expectations GBP/USD spiked through the nearby resistances, including the August high, and approached the highest level since July (1.3480). Disappointing US data gave the pair strong impetus yesterday, but trading still seems to be bound by the bullish channel. This means 1.3500/1.3480 should act as a ceiling, while near-term outlook is bearish, as we wait for a downward correction within the pattern. The price is thus likely to retreat to 1.33, before it stabilizes and then resumes recovery from 1.29 that was started in mid-August.
Traders' Sentiment
Distribution between the bulls and bears remains the same—38% of traders are long and 62% are short the Sterling. However, the share of sell orders has noticeably decreased since the last report, namely from 64 to 58%.
"Given that the dollar broke below 102.10 yen, it raises the risk of a re-test of 100.70." - Bank of Singapore Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
The bullish setup we mentioned in our previous reports is no longer topical. This is due to poor US data released yesterday, as a result of which the currency pair returned within the boundaries of the channel that has been forming since the last months of 2015. The immediate support is circa 101 yen, but the sell-off is likely to continue until we hit 100.70, where the monthly S1 coincides with 50% retracement of the 2012-2015 up-move. Current resistance is at 102.16, represented by the monthly pivot point.
Traders' Sentiment
Regardless of Greenback's recent underperformance percentage of longs increased to 66%, as traders attempt to buy Dollar at low prices before the currency appreciates. Meanwhile, there is still no visible difference between the amounts of buy and sell orders.
"Both gold and silver are on the move higher today, with some tailwinds from a considerably weaker USD, precipitated mainly by weaker than expected ECO Data from the ISM Non-Manufacturing Data," – Tim Knight, Prophet Founder (based investing.com)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal continues to surge on Wednesday, as the commodity broke the resistance put up by the monthly R1 at 1,348. 50 on early morning. Previously, the metal surged from 1,325.65 at the start of Tuesday's trading session to 1,348.50 by the end of day's trading. During the surge various resistance levels where broken, including the recent, short term channel upward trend, which is no longer in place. During the rest of Wednesday the yellow metal is most likely to continue the surge, as it faces next the upper Bollinger band at 1,358.51.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish on the metal, as 56% of open positions are short on Wednesday. In the meantime, pending commands are 66% to buy, which indicates at a continuation of the surge.
"The shared currency will probably climb another 5 percent against the dollar by the end of this year, adding to its 3.5 percent gain in 2016." – Morgan Stanley (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency is surging on Thursday morning against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate remains near previously reached heights around the level of 1.1250. The surge is ongoing on Thursday due to the fact that the rate did not sustain the surge on Wednesday, after the rate jumped on Tuesday. The pair fell and found support in the weekly R1 at 1.1230 and rebounded against it. Today's movement is a continuation of the rebound and there are no reasons for it to stop, as the next resistance still remains at 1.1305.
Traders' Sentiment
Swiss Forex traders continue to increase the bearish stance in expectations of a consolidations after the big Tuesday's jump, as 62% of positions are short. In the meantime, pending commands are 53% to sell, which show that a sudden fall is unlikely.
"After overshooting on the downside in the immediate aftermath of Brexit, the sterling crosses got ahead of themselves on the rebound and are starting to look vulnerable to a renewed pull-back." - Credit Agricole (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
GBP/USD bounced off of the upper boundary of the emerging ascending channel yesterday, but there is not a lot of room for the sell-off to extend. The immediate support is at 1.3320 (23.6% Fibo), while the recently broken trendline is at 1.3275. Additional demand area is seen near 1.32, where the lower bound of the channel merges with the 55-day SMA, but it is unlikely to be tested before an attack on 1.3500/1.3480. Within this area supply is represented by the July high and resistance trendline.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX sentiment remains perfectly unchanged—there is a 24 percentage point difference between the shares of longs and shorts just like five days ago. Meanwhile, the portion of sell orders increased from 58 to 60%.
"Dollar-yen can't go very far in either direction in the lead up to Sept. 21, simply because there are three possible outcomes this time, rather than the usual two." - Macquarie Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
USD/JPY consolidates under the monthly PP and 55-day SMA, implying that the bears will soon resume their push lower, while the upside should be limited by a wide but dense supply zone between 102.65 and 102.16. The current target is 100.80/70, but additional Dollar weakness is seen as unlikely, considering that this demand area is the 50% retracement of the 2012-2015 up-move, which is reinforced by the monthly S1 and weekly S2. Moreover, it is close to an important psychological level of 100 yen.
Traders' Sentiment
Yesterday's depreciation of Dollar did not affect the distribution between the bulls and bears, who still take up 66 and 34% of the market respectively. As for the buy orders, their share went up, but insufficiently to create a distinguishable gap from the sell orders.
"Gold was steady on Thursday, after dipping 0.3 percent in the prior session, as the dollar remained weak and investors awaited cues on monetary stimulus from a European Central Bank policy meeting due later in the day."
– based on Reuters
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal trades below the combined resistance cluster made up of weekly R2 and monthly R1 respectively at 1,346.69 and 1,348.50. Previously, the metal reached the cluster amidst Tuesday's huge surge, and the commodity was struggling against it during Wednesday's trading session. However, the bullion could not break the cluster and fell back below. Due to various factors, as the aggregate technical indicators, market sentiment and fundamental data, it is most likely that the metal will struggle for some time until it breaks through the resistance and continues the surge.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders have not changed their stance on the metal, as open positions remain 56% short on Thursday. However, pending orders have become more bullish, as 70% of them are to buy the bullion.
"The shaving of 2017 and 2018 growth forecasts and recognition of continued downside risks did not prompt the ECB to adjust monetary policy." – Mark Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman, (based on investing.com)
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency appreciated against the US Dollar on early Friday morning. However, the surge up to 1.1280 by 5:15 GMT is only a slight jump, compared to the level of 1.1326 touched during Thursday's trading session. Although, the volatility was cause by the ECB rate announcement and the following press conference. During Friday's trading session the rate has set its eyes once more to the resistance cluster starting above at 1.1305, where the second weekly resistance is located at.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders continue to increase their bearish sentiment, as 63% of open positions are short on Friday. In the meantime, pending orders are almost neutral, as 51% of them are to buy the Euro.
"The market was short dollars ahead of the weekend, and it was a good excuse for short-term guys to buy it back." - Global-info Co (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The Sterling stabilised yesterday between the 23.60% retracement of the post-Brexit-vote sell-off and the falling trendline that was broken during the second half of the previous week. Considering that the pair is trading in a bullish channel, and it has just confirmed the upper bound of the pattern, we may expect an extension of the latest decline down to 1.3190/70, where we have the lower bound of the channel together with the 55-day SMA. However, taking into account technical indicators, a rally from 1.33 seems more likely for now.
Traders' Sentiment
After a period of relative stability the sentiment noticeably improved yesterday. Bears remain in majority, but the share of longs jumped from 38 to 43%. At the same time, 43% of pending orders are to buy and 57% are to sell the Pound.
"Weak U.S. data makes a Fed rate hike this month very unlikely, while markets will become conscious of the BOJ's limits, potentially pushing the yen past 100 per dollar after the BOJ meeting." - HSBC Securities Japan Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
Although yesterday in the morning the upside seemed limited, the price managed to mount 102 yen, thus closing above the monthly PP and alleviating some downward pressure. Nevertheless, the 55-day SMA stays intact, suggesting the near-term outlook remains negative and 100.80/70 is still a viable target. This support mainly consists of the 50% retracement of the 2012-2015 rally and monthly S1. Additional strong demand is seen at 100 yen, and for the time being this we consider to be the floor.
Traders' Sentiment
Apparently, bulls were encouraged by Dollar's performance, as their share increased further to 68% of the market. There is no consensus among the orders, however, since 49% are buy and 51% are sell commands.
"Mario Draghi has put the gold market on hold." – based on Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
Gold traded just above the support cluster above 1,335 level on Friday morning due to a failure to break through a resistance cluster on Thursday. The yellow metal did not manage to break the resistance cluster comprised of the weekly R2 at 1,346.69 and monthly R1 at 1,348.50. On Friday morning the metal found support in the weekly R1 and 55-day SMA respectively at 1,335.65 and 1.336.20, which indicates that there might be another try to break the previously mentioned resistance cluster.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish on the commodity, as 57% of open positions are short. However, there is still an expectation of a surge, as 72% of pending commands are to buy the yellow metal.
"In a week when global equity markets were hit hard after weeks of low volatility and stability, it's of little surprise that the Euro emerged as a top performer." – Christopher Vecchio, currency strategist, (based on Daily FX)
Pair's Outlook
The most traded currency pair on the market remained flat on Tuesday morning, as the markets expect new data about the strength of the underlying economies. Mainly the CPI data from the EU is set to be out during this week with the Germans being first during today's trading session. From a technical perspective it can be seen that the currency exchange rate is searching for support near the weekly PP at 1.1233. As the 20 and 100-day SMAs move in from the downside, the rate is set to surge in the near future.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain largely bearish for this pair, as 64% of open positions are already short. In the meantime, pending commands are almost neutral, as 51% of them are to sell the Euro.
