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Daily Market Outlook By PYX Markets
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[QUOTE="PYX Markets London, post: 121192, member: 38730"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 8th February [/b] [img] http://www.karachiites.com.php56-3.dfw3-2.websitetestlink.com/pyxmarket-new/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/pyx-market-outlook.jpg [/img] Asian share markets retreated on Wednesday and the euro was pressured as doubts over the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump and an election looming in France sapped investor confidence. A raft of strong global economic data and hopes that Trump's talk of economic stimulus measures had helped to support world share markets, and the dollar, since late last year. But the lack of detail on Trump's stimulus plans and some other policy stances taken after he was sworn in on Jan. 20 have unsettled investors. Trump's protectionist leanings on international trade and controversy over his move to temporarily ban the entry of immigrants from seven Muslim-majority countries have caused alarm. Uncertainty on the new administration's currency policy is also keeping foreign exchange markets on edge. The pair may see limited moves for now as traders look to a meeting between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Friday. The euro EUR=, on the other hand, shed 0.6 percent on Tuesday and last stood at $1.0682, hit by rising concerns that the far right could win France's presidential vote and take the country out of the euro. While most investors expect Le Pen to be defeated in the run-off by a more moderate candidate, markets are nervous after last years’ experience of the Brexit referendum and Trump's victory. In addition, wrangling over Greece's bailout are starting to haunt the market ahead of the euro group meeting on Feb. 20, with two-year Greek debt GR2YT=RR yield soaring to near 10 percent on Tuesday, compared to around six percent just about two weeks ago. Elsewhere, the Chinese yuan dipped slightly following Tuesday's data that showed China's foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly fell below the closely watched $3 trillion level in January for the first time in nearly six years. Still, the market impact was limited as the fall in the reserves, of $12.3 billion to $2.998 trillion, was the smallest in seven months, indicating China's renewed crackdown on outflows appears to be working, at least for now. The U.S. trade deficit fell in December as exports hit their highest level in more than 1-1/2 years amid record shipments of technology products, but strengthening domestic demand points to further rises in imports, which could constrain economic growth. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the trade gap dropped 3.2 percent to $44.3 billion, ending two straight months of increases. The trade deficit rose 0.4 percent to a four-year high of $502.3 billion in 2016. That represented 2.7 percent of gross domestic product, down from 2.8 percent in 2015. President Donald Trump has blamed U.S. trade policy for the loss of American factory jobs and has vowed to make sweeping changes, starting with pulling out of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact Trump also wants to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was signed in 1994 by the United States, Canada and Mexico. But economists do not believe these protectionist measures will eliminate the deficit. U.S. financial markets were little moved by the report as the government published an estimate of the goods deficit last month. Trade slashed 1.7 percentage points from gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, leaving output rising at a 1.9 percent annualized rate. The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter. The improvement in the deficit at the end of the year could set up trade to be a modest drag on growth in the first quarter. In December, exports of goods and services increased 2.7 percent to $190.7 billion, the highest since April 2015, as shipments of advanced technology goods such as aerospace, biotechnology and electronics, hit a record high. Oil prices dropped on Wednesday to extend falls from the previous day, as a massive increase in U.S. fuel inventories and a slump in Chinese demand implied that global crude markets remain oversupplied despite OPEC-led efforts to cut output. The sharp declines came on the back of unexpectedly big increases in U.S. fuel inventories, as reported by the API on Tuesday. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.9 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.1-million barrel gain. Despite this, the U.S. bank said "this data vastly overstates a likely modest year-on-year decline in gasoline demand," and that its "outlook for global strong demand growth (remains) unchanged". Outside the United States, there were other signs of market weakness. China's 2016 oil demand grew at the slowest pace in at least three years, Reuters calculations based on official data showed. China's implied oil demand growth eased to 2.5 percent in 2016, down from 3.1 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2014, led by a sharp drop in diesel consumption and as gasoline usage eased from double-digit growth. The slowing occurred as the economy expanded by only 6.7 percent in 2016, the slowest pace in 26 years. Slowing demand and ongoing high inventories undermine efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of this year in order to prop up prices and rebalance the market. Despite this, both Brent and WTI are down over 6 percent since early January, when the cuts started to be implemented. [/QUOTE]
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