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Daily Market Outlook By PYX Markets
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[QUOTE="PYX Markets London, post: 115379, member: 38730"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 24th November [/b] [img] https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14570478_1179904372071111_6911470945801757702_n.jpg?oh=9845bf4fa52573c04cc18bf21e2e3939&oe=58875384 [/img] Most Asian stock markets fell on Thursday as upbeat economic data strengthened the prospect for higher U.S. interest rates, while the dollar's bull run continued with U.S. bond yields propelled to multi-year highs. Such a view - which has also lifted expectations for more U.S. rate hikes next year - was reinforced on Wednesday after new orders of U.S. manufactured capital goods rebounded in October. Consumer sentiment also jumped in November. he common currency has dropped nearly 4 percent in November. State banks or foreign exchange authorities in China, India, Indonesia and the Philippines were all suspected of intervening to slow the slide in their currencies on Thursday. The dollar was hovering at a fresh 14-year peak against the other majors currencies on Wednesday, after the release of mixed U.S. data failed to dampen optimism over the strength of the economy. The Universtity of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index rose to 93.8 in November from 91.6 the previous month, beating expectations for an unchanged reading. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said durable goods orders climbed 4.8% last month, compared to expectations for a gain of 1.5%. Core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, rose 1% last month, compared to a forecast increase of 0.2%. On a less positive note, the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims in the week ending November 19 increased by 18,000 to251,000 from the previous week’s total of 233,000 (initially 235,000). Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 15,000 to 250,000 last week. Another report showed that U.S. new home sales fell by 1.9% to 563,000 units last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase. The greenback has remained supported amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to ramp up fiscal spending and cut taxes will spur economic growth and inflation. Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected. The U.S. dollar has also been boosted by bets that the U.S. central bank will almost certainly raise interest rates next month. Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday reiterated that a rate hike “could well become appropriate relatively soon.” Research group Markit earlier reported that its euro zone composite purchasing managers’ index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors, increased to 54.1 November from the prior month’s reading of 53.3 and above forecasts for no change. The German manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.9 this month from 55.0, while the services PMI climbed to a six-month high of 55.0 from 54.2. Markit also said its French manufacturing PMI declined to a two-month low of 51.5 in November from 51.8 the previous month, while the services PMI rose to a two-month high of 52.6 from 51.4. Nov 23 Federal Reserve policymakers appeared confident on the eve of the U.S. presidential election that the economy was strengthening enough to warrant interest rate increases soon, minutes from the Fed's Nov. 1-2 meeting showed. The minutes released on Wednesday back the consensus view on Wall Street that the Fed is poised to raise rates in December. Policymakers left borrowing costs unchanged earlier this month, just days before Republican Donald Trump triumphed in the Nov. 8 presidential contest. Voting members of the Fed's rate-setting committee saw equal risks the economy would overshoot or undershoot their forecasts for continued growth and a tightening labor market. "Almost all of them continued to judge that near-term risks to the economic outlook were roughly balanced," according to the minutes. Seventeen policymakers participated at the November policy meeting, of whom 10 had a vote. Among the wider group of participants, most said it "could well become appropriate" to raise rates "relatively soon," according to the minutes. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week in congressional testimony that Trump's election did nothing to change the Fed's plans for a rate increase "relatively soon." Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making big new bets on markets. Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets due to uncertainty about a planned oil production cut, led by the OPEC. OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much. Most analysts believe some form of production cut will be agreed, but it is uncertain whether it will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang for over two years, resulting in a record three years of falling investments into the sector, according to IEA. Beyond OPEC, traders said the strong U.S.-dollar, which is at levels last seen in 2003 against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY, was influencing oil prices. A strong dollar, in which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other currencies at home, potentially crimping demand. [/QUOTE]
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