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Daily Market Outlook By PYX Markets
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[QUOTE="PYX Markets London, post: 114559, member: 38730"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 15th November [/b] [img] https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14570478_1179904372071111_6911470945801757702_n.jpg?oh=9845bf4fa52573c04cc18bf21e2e3939&oe=58875384 [/img] The U.S. dollar held near a 14-year high on Tuesday and Treasury yields extended their rise as investors braced for stronger inflation in the United States amid expectations of expansionary fiscal polices under Donald Trump's presidency. The combination of the two have derailed Asian currencies and equities, particularly in South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia, which have seen big inflows this year, especially after the shock referendum vote by Britain to exit the European Union in June. Despite the general air of caution over Asian markets, investors are eyeing some opportunities such as banking stocks in Hong Kong which would benefit from any Trump-led deregulation in the financial sector. Some investors were also considering the Indian rupee, which is relatively less exposed to any flare-up in global trade protectionism than others. The large moves in markets has been stoked by expectation that Trump's promised infrastructure spending and tax cuts will spur higher U.S. growth, pushing up inflation as well as borrowing costs. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's administration should consider supporting a Beijing-backed free trade deal in the Asia-Pacific, state media said on Tuesday, adding that China would be relieved to see a rival U.S.-led trade deal wither under Trump. During his election campaign, Trump took a protectionist stance on trade issues and labeled the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) championed by President Barack Obama a "disaster". There is now little chance of it coming up for vote in Washington before his inauguration in January. Obama had framed the TPP, which excludes China, as part of his "pivot to Asia" and as an effort to write Asia's trade rules before Beijing could. China had feared the United States would use the TPP to either force it to open markets by signing up or else to isolate it from other regional economies. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade talks, which are supported by Beijing but to which the United States is not party, are viewed by some observers as a competitor to U.S. economic leadership in the region. Such editorials in state-run media do not represent Chinese government policy but they are indicative of official thinking. The dollar extended gains to hit an eleven-month high against the other majors currencies on Monday, as optimism over the economic implications of a Trump presidency continued to boost demand for the greenback. The dollar continued to strengthen amid hopes that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will bolster economic growth and inflation. Expectations for higher U.S. interest rates also remained intact amid optimism that a pick-up in growth will allow the Federal Reserve to tighten borrowing costs. In Japan, data overnight showed that the economy grew at a faster than expected pace in the third quarter, with GDP expanding by 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, but the report also indicated that domestic demand remained weak. Oil prices rose around 2 percent on Tuesday to move away from multi-month lows struck the day before, pushed higher by expectations of falling shale output and renewed optimism that OPEC will deliver on touted production cuts. Prices were buoyed by expectations that U.S. shale oil production will in December fall to its lowest since April 2014 at 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia's energy minister said it was imperative for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reach a consensus on activating a deal made in September to curb production, according to Algeria's state news agency APS on Sunday. OPEC members are due to meet later this month. Also supporting oil markets was news that Harold Hamm, chief executive at U.S. independent oil producer Continental Resources, could serve as energy secretary when Donald Trump becomes U.S. president. Hamm, if nominated, would be the first U.S. energy secretary drawn directly from the industry, a move that would jolt environmental advocates but bolster Trump's pro-drilling energy platform. U.S. crude prices are also likely to be supported by short-covering, said Philips Futures' investment analyst Jonathan Chan. Elsewhere, Iraq will cut exports of Basra crude from its southern ports to 3.16 million bpd in December, compared with 3.24 million bpd in November. The allocated December volume will be the lowest in four months. Meanwhile, returning Libyan crude oil production could cap market gains. A tanker carrying the first freshly produced cargo of Libyan crude to be exported since the Ras Lanuf terminal reopened in September left the port on Monday. The reopening of the eastern ports has helped Libya's national production double to around 600,000 bpd. [/QUOTE]
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