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Daily Market Outlook By PYX Markets
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[QUOTE="PYX Markets London, post: 114165, member: 38730"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 10th November [/b] [img] https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14570478_1179904372071111_6911470945801757702_n.jpg?oh=9845bf4fa52573c04cc18bf21e2e3939&oe=58875384 [/img] Asian shares rallied on Thursday and the dollar firmed in a remarkable snapback from the shock of Republican Donald Trump's presidential victory, though the speed of the reversal left some market watchers scratching their heads. Despite the initial sharp recoil in global markets, U.S. investors opted to focus instead on Trump's key policy priorities, which include generous tax cuts and higher infrastructure and defense spending, along with deregulation for banks. Helping boost the dollar, investors again revised the outlook for U.S. interest rates in the wake of Trump's victory, with the probability of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve going from as low as 30 percent to as high as 80 percent. Ratings agency S&P Global later affirmed the AA+ rating of the United States, but noted uncertainty over the future path of government debt would prevent any upgrade. There were also lingering concerns about whether Trump would follow through with threatened punitive tariffs on Chinese and Mexican exports, potentially triggering a global trade war. Among Asia's trade-reliant economies, China and South Korea are particularly exposed to any hostile U.S. measures as they run large trade surpluses with the United States, Credit Suisse said in a research note. Ratings agency Standard & Poor's affirmed the United States' investment-grade 'AA+/A-1+' rating on Wednesday, a day after the presidential election, while maintaining its stable outlook. Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in a stunning upset, and will take office in January, with the Republicans maintaining majority control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. But S&P added that the United States' high general government debt and increased uncertainty over its trajectory constrain the ratings of the world's largest economy. There is a risk of policy uncertainty and potential missteps given the untested nature of the incoming Trump administration. If these risks eventuate, there could be downward pressure on the rating, S&P said. S&P said it would raise the rating if it saw evidence that efforts point to more proactive fiscal and public policies that result in a lower debt burden. Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday that Trump's victory does not have near-term implications for the United States' AAA/stable rating. A day after Republican Donald Trump was elected as the next U.S. president, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said that the U.S. central bank is nerdy, geeky, but above all apolitical, and will remain so. During his campaign Trump repeatedly accused the Fed of keeping rates low for political reasons, and said he would replace Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who ran the San Francisco Fed before Williams, once her term ends in 2018. Speaking at the University of San Francisco, Williams said the U.S. economy is close to maximum employment and inflation is poised to rise back to the Fed's 2-percent target, and that therefore it is time for the central bank to increase rates gradually. Rate increases have been much slower than the Fed expected last year, when most policymakers thought they would raise borrowing costs four times in 2016. Williams said the Fed did not raise rates as fast as expected because most policymakers over the course of the year changed their estimate of the neutral level of interest rates, and now believe that level is much lower because of factors like an aging population and slow productivity growth. Fed's Williams says gradual rate rises still make sense. The Fed is widely expected to raise one time this year, at next month's policy meeting, a move that Williams supports. Oil prices dipped on Thursday, pulled down by rising U.S. crude inventories and as markets tried to interpret U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's surprise victory. U.S. crude stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels to 485 million barrels last week even though refineries hiked output and imports fell, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Markets still shook off deep post-election losses and recovered. BMI Research said Trump's expected pro oil and gas industry policies might mean that U.S. "production of oil and gas could recover at a faster rate in 2017 as developers grow more encouraged." Goldman Sachs said a Trump presidency would likely result in higher investment and, in time, increased U.S. oil output as the new president-elect has said he would de-regulate fossil fuel production. Internationally, the bank said Trump's threat of renewed U.S. sanctions against OPEC-member Iran would, in the short-term, lead to higher production as it "would further incentivize Iran to maximize production in the short term rather than comply to an OPEC freeze." This confirmed traders' doubts over the ability of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, especially Russia, to coordinate a planned output cut in order to prop up prices. In physical oil markets, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) militant group said it had attacked the Forcados crude export line operated by oil major Royal Dutch Shell. Shell said that it had also shut down an Escravos crude oil flow station in Nigeria's Niger Delta after villagers staged a protest demanding aid. [/QUOTE]
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